RUSSIA ECONOMICS
Analyst
Evgeny Gavrilenkov
Former Investment Bank Chief EconomistDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
Balance of payments remained stable in 4M24
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 17 May 2024
The CBR reported that the 4M24 current account surplus climbed to $31.7 bln after it reached $6.6 bln in April alone. As the statistical data for the previous month, published earlier, were revised upward, the surplus appeared a bit wider than expected. Overall, the 4M24 current account surplus e...
Russian macro: GDP can grow above 4% in 2024 if PM’s 1Q24 number is correct
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Forecast · 13 May 2024
On May 12, the recently re-appointed PM Mr. Mishustin, while speaking in the Duma, announced that in 1Q24, the country’s GDP grew by 5.4% y-o-y. The number came from the latest Economics Ministry publication. Interestingly, the Ministry upgraded its 2024 growth forecast at the end of April to 2.8...
Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 09 May 2024
The ruble appreciated in the past two weeks from USD/RUB 94 to almost USD/RUB 91. We suppose that there were two main reasons for such dynamics. Firstly, efforts of the Russian exporters to repatriate export earnings to Russia appeared relatively successful. The settlement between the Russian com...
OFZ: Russian debt puzzle still not assembled
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 29 Apr 2024
The yields in the Russian debt market continue to grow. Last week’s tightening of the CBR's signalling regarding the further trajectory of the key rate may even stimulate this trend. On one hand, even the existing yields look very attractive to long-term institutional investors. On the other hand...
Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 25 Apr 2024
In the past couple of weeks, the USD/RUB fluctuated in a narrow range, influenced by various factors. On one hand, the current account looked wide enough in 1Q24. On the other hand, the exporters face problems with repatriating export earnings to Russia. In this situation, the authorities decided...
Industrial growth moderated in March but remained good enough
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 24 Apr 2024
Rosstat reported that industrial output increased in March by 4.0% y-o-y, which brought the 1Q24 y-o-y tally to 5.6% (y-o-y growth was stronger in February due to a leap year). Seasonally/calendar-adjusted industrial output increased by 0.1% m-o-m. The mining segment grew y-o-y by 0.4% and 1.1% i...
Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 11 Apr 2024
The FX market remains relatively stable despite rising oil prices. The Western sanctions, combined with the damage to some oil refineries from drone attacks, reduced the profitability of the oil companies. As a result, the supply of hard currency from their side remains subdued. Nevertheless, the...
Smooth federal budget performance in 1Q24
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 09 Apr 2024
Minfin reported that the 1Q24 federal budget revenues accounted for about R8.7 trln (24.9% of the annual plan set at nearly R35.1 trln). The figure looks decent, as in 2024, the revenue target exceeds last year’s actual revenue figure by 20.4%. In 1Q24, the government collected R2.9 trln of the o...
Economic performance remained decent in February
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 04 Apr 2024
Following a previous publication on the performance of the Russian industry in 2M24 (up by 6.6% y-o-y and by 8.5% y-o-y in February alone), Rosstat reported that the output of the five basic sectors (industry, agriculture, construction, trade, transportation) grew in 2M24 by 7.8% y-o-y. In Februa...