SOUTH AFRICA
Analyst
Iraj Abedian
Former Member, President’s Panel of Economic AdvisorsDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
The South African economy in a precarious state pre-elections
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 15 May 2024
• South African growth: The South African economy’s slowdown continued in 2023 from 2021’s robust recovery – economic expansion in 2023 was just under a third of the growth rate registered in the preceding year. Although it had moderated by the end of the year, load-shedding reached its peak in 2...
Election Monitor III: National elections – growing uncertainty amid a rising desire for change
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 29 Apr 2024
South Africa celebrated the 30th anniversary of the new dispensation on Saturday, April 27, 2024. The mood of the nation could hardly be more different than it was on April 27, 1994, when Nelson Mandela declared the triumph of the ANC’s decades of struggle against apartheid. The predominant major...
Election Monitor II: National elections outcome growing more unpredictable, but more profound
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 12 Apr 2024
In its first truly competitive and pluralistic elections since the dawn of democracy in 1994, the SA National Elections predictions are becoming more and more complex, and the outcome more unpredictable, leading to a blend of excitement and anxiety. Since my last Election Monitor, the Speaker of...
The South African Reserve Bank keeps rates unchanged amid ongoing sticky inflation
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 27 Mar 2024
The South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) announced today that it is once again leaving the benchmark interest rate unchanged, a decision that was largely expected. This comes after the Bank’s MPC held the repurchase (repo) rate unchanged for four consecutive meeting...
SA Election Monitor I: National elections fever is rising—and sharply so
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 27 Mar 2024
South Africa's 2024 elections are expected to be the first of its truly democratic process. This is because since 1994, and the dawn of the new constitutional democratic order, the dominance of the African National Congress (ANC) meant that the outcomes of the national elections were highly predi...
South Africa’s current account deteriorates further in 2023 while tourism continues to recover
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 08 Mar 2024
Data released by the South African Reserve Bank indicates that the deficit on South Africa’s current account widened markedly, from R34.4 billion in the third quarter to R165.5 billion in the fourth quarter of 2023. As a ratio of GDP, the current account thus widened to a deficit of 2.3% in the f...
South Africa’s economy escaped a technical recession in Q4-2023—but only just
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 06 Mar 2024
Real GDP figures released by Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) yesterday indicate that South Africa’s economy barely managed to grow in the final quarter of 2023 following a contraction of 0.2% q/q during the third quarter. During the fourth quarter of 2023, real GDP recorded a growth rate of 0....
Budget 2024 underscores South Africa's fiscal challenges against the backdrop of a marked economic slowdown
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 22 Feb 2024
Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana yesterday delivered Budget 2024, which also represented the last Budget of the 6th South African democratic administration. In his speech, the Minister made it clear that the biggest challenge to the fiscus is that “the size of the pie is not growing fast enough ...
The South African economy on shaky ground beyond the post-pandemic recovery
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 15 Feb 2024
• Bonds: The South African bond market continues to be a reflection of the levels of confidence in both the country itself and as a member of the emerging markets group. At the same time, South Africa’s own homegrown economic weaknesses have been responsible for the bulk of the vulnerability in t...