TURKEY
Analysts
Murat Ucer
Former Advisor, Economy Ministry and Central Bank
Atilla Yesilada
Former Director, Egebank Global ResearchDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
Towards a new normal in politics?
TURKEY · Report · 12 May 2024
The stunning defeat of Messrs. Erdogan and Bahceli in municipal elections upset the political equilibrium. All actors, led by Erdogan, are scrambling to reposition to deal with the new reality. It is possible for the quest for a new equilibrium to result in a more normal, democratic and less xeno...
Watch the (monthly) pace and hope for the best
TURKEY · Report · 09 May 2024
The CBRT released the second Inflation Report of the year with a nice and comprehensive presentation by Governor Fatih Karahan (see link here for the transcript, here for the presentation). We provide some relatively detailed highlights on the presentation and the Q&A session, followed by comment...
Spring is in the air
TURKEY · Report · 05 May 2024 · 1 response
In this econ-only Tracker, we provide a quick rundown of the past week’s data releases and developments. Growth indicators softened somewhat in April, while both March final and April preliminary trade data pointed to a visible deterioration in the core trade balance. As an aside, Turkey halte...
Inflation back to a monthly pace of circ. 3%
TURKEY · Report · 03 May 2024
Consumer prices increased by 3.2%, m/m, in April, somewhat lower than consensus, with the 12-month rate rising further to 69.8% from 68.5% in March. Domestic-PPI inflation posted 3.6%, which drove the 12-month rate to 55.7% from 51.5% a month earlier, as the PPI-CPI inflation gap, though remains ...
Playing For Time
TURKEY · Report · 28 Apr 2024
Growth was likely positive in Q1, and should finish the year at around 3% with risks tilted to the upside, assuming a flat second half or that a major contraction will be avoided. We see growth slowing further in 2025, however. • Inflation, broadly in line with the consensus, should peak at ju...
Webinar Replay - Turkey: Fundamental change or business as usual?
TURKEY · Report · 26 Apr 2024
What does Erdogan's defeat in the municipal elections mean for Turkey? In response, will he rely on pragmatism or return to heterodoxy? Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar on the implications of Erdogan's political losses for Turkey's macroeconomic and political outlook.
MPC: Back to a wait-and-see mode
TURKEY · Report · 25 Apr 2024
As expected, the CBRT/MPC kept interest rates unchanged today, leaving the policy rate (one-week repo) at 50%. The statement was also little changed, still speaking of ongoing resilience in domestic demand and upside risks to inflation.
Many questions, no answers
TURKEY · Report · 21 Apr 2024
While President Erdogan promised change after the defeat of the AKP-MHP alliance, so far, he has neither taken any steps, nor has he provided any hints about new policies, save in economics. Pro-AKP press claims he is biding his time, but the first essay in the politics section concludes the Pres...
Reserves up, politics sideways
TURKEY · Report · 14 Apr 2024 · 1 response
The politics author analyses the reasons for AKP’s stunning defeat, concluding that while President Erdogan’s mistakes did play a role in the defeat, by no means were they the primary factor. It is very difficult to fix these mistakes anyway. Voters who migrated from AKP to ultra-Islamist New Wel...