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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

New Year’s Policy and Political Hurdles
MEXICO · Report · 22 Jan 2014

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This second part of our political perspectives report for 2014 will address two topics: the main challenges that the administration of President Enrique Peña Nieto will face in matters that are a source of social discontent (the poor state of the economy and public security), an...

Modulating Expectations
MEXICO · Report · 15 Jan 2014

Executive Summary Last week President Enrique Peña Nieto signed into law the constitutional reforms affecting the financial sector. The government expects these changes to encourage competition in the financial services industry and to increase the amount of credit issued by development banks as ...

Next Phase of Reform
MEXICO · Report · 14 Jan 2014

Executive Summary The first major challenge and the central theme of the 2014 political agenda will involve passing secondary legislation necessary for implementation of the major structural reforms approved last year, and then instrumenting those changes. In that regard, 2014 promises to be a mo...

Future Payback from Energy Reform
MEXICO · Report · 24 Dec 2013

Executive Summary Last week the national statistics office released its report on aggregate demand for the third quarter of 2013. Demand grew 1.5% compared to the same July-September period of a year earlier (GEA had estimated a 1.6% increase). During the second quarter of 2013, demand grew 2.2%....

No Referendum on Reform
MEXICO · Report · 24 Dec 2013

Executive Summary Early last week, the necessary 17-state majority ratified the constitutional reform regarding the energy sector and last Friday, at the National Palace, President Enrique Peña Nieto signed it into law. The enactment itself is likely to produce two main types of political consequ...

S&P raises Mexico’s credit rating: more wishful thinking on debt quality improvement than hard facts
MEXICO · In Brief · 23 Dec 2013

Standard and Poor’s (S&P), raised Mexico’s sovereign rating from BBB to BBB+ shortly after Energy Reform was approved. Mexico’s country rating has been investment grade for a while. With this action S&P reverses the one notch reduction following the 2009 recession (-6.2% annual GDP change) and br...

The Challenges Ahead
MEXICO · Report · 17 Dec 2013

Executive Summary As we near the end of what could be described as the most congressionally productive year the Mexican government has enjoyed in at least two decades, there is a bit of irony in the fact that the administration that has presided over such an ambitious reform agenda has lower appr...

Economics: Looking for the FDI Tide to Turn
MEXICO · Report · 17 Dec 2013

Executive Summary Last week the Mexican Congress passed energy reform amendments to the constitution with the support of the PAN and PRI, and over the opposition of the PRD. The most significant aspect of the reform is the extent to which it opens the industry to private investment through a broa...

The Central Bank’s Next Move
MEXICO · Report · 10 Dec 2013

Executive Summary Mexico’s monetary authority decided last week to leave its TIIE interbank lending rate at 3.5%. Banco de México said it based its decision on the idea that inflation would remain near 3.5% for the balance of the current year and throughout 2014, and then trend lower until inters...

The Final Touches on Energy Reform
MEXICO · Report · 10 Dec 2013

Executive Summary After the Party of the PRD abandoned reform talks, the PAN and PRI began to toughen their respective negotiating positions as the political and time constraints that accompany the very final days of the regular session of Congress provide greater incentives to bargain all the mo...

A Bold Proposal for The Energy Reform
MEXICO · In Brief · 08 Dec 2013 · 1 response

The long wait is over. PAN and PRI have presented a draft of the energy reform that is currently being discussed in the Senate, where the debate is expected to continue until Monday, before it passes to the Chamber of Deputies. It is a bold proposal that allows for private investment in power pro...

New Inklings of Growth
MEXICO · Report · 03 Dec 2013

Executive SummaryThe economic data released last month mainly corresponded to September and October, and for the most part was negative. Consumer confidence slumped significantly in September (3.3 index points lower than August’s reading), and in October (2.9 points below that of September). The ...

New Glimmers of Accountability
MEXICO · Report · 27 Nov 2013

Executive Summary When the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) reclaimed the presidential mansion of Los Pinos after a 12-year absence following last year’s election of President Enrique Peña Nieto, there were widespread concerns we might witness a return to the opacity, corruption and lack o...

2014 Budget: More of the Same
MEXICO · Report · 27 Nov 2013

Executive Summary The Chamber of Deputies approved a final expenditure law for 2014 that contained few surprises or major changes from the original draft of the spending bill proposed by the administration of President Enrique Peña Nieto. The scant changes that were introduced were largely design...

New Taxes to Weigh on Economy
MEXICO · Report · 20 Nov 2013

Executive Summary Last week the Chamber of Deputies passed the Federal Spending Budget (FSB) for 2014. It authorizes 8.47 trillion pesos in spending, a real term 8.8% increase over the 2013 spending budget.According to the Ministry of Finance (SHCP), the budget favors investment expenditure over ...

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