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Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 16 Jan 2025

A new wave of US sanctions was focused on the energy sector and caused new fears that the inflow of hard currency into Russia may decrease. As a result, the demand for hard currency increased, and the ruble moved well above USD/RUB 100 versus USD/RUB 99 at the end of 2024 (at the time of writing ...

Economic growth remains decent in 11M24, set to decelerate in 2025
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 07 Jan 2025

Rosstat reported that the output of the five basic sectors (industry, agriculture, construction, transportation, and trade) grew y-o-y by 4.6% and 3.7% in 11M24 and November alone. Economic growth expectedly decelerates, though in 2025 it may still be higher than in 2023, but below 4.0%. In 9M24,...

Industry keeps growing with no surprises
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 27 Dec 2024

Rosstat recently reported that the Russian industrial output expanded by 4.3% y-o-y in 11M24, posting some y-o-y deceleration as in November alone, it grew by 3.7% y-o-y amid uneven last year’s base effects. Seasonally adjusted (by Rosstat) industrial output increased in November by 0.7% m-o-m, w...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 19 Dec 2024

The FX market remained volatile, and in the past two weeks, the ruble fluctuated within the range from USD/RUB 99 to USD/RUB 106. Chances to see the ruble close to the upper boundary by the year-end are high. These developments fueled demand for bonds nominated in hard currency. Since the beginni...

Russian macro: GDP growth, external balance stable as settlements in national currencies gain importance
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 16 Dec 2024

Rosstat recently provided additional color to its 3Q24 GDP growth flash estimate (3.1% y-o-y) published earlier, and the sectoral GDP production growth rates are now available. The 9M24 GDP increase was more impressive (4.1% y-o-y) than in 3Q24 alone. Rosstat also revealed that the seasonally adj...

Balance of payments: no surprise in 11M24 amid the economy’s overheating
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 12 Dec 2024

The CBR published its flash estimate of the 11M24 balance of payments, and no major surprise was on the table. In 11M24, the current account surplus reached $57.4 bln as the trade balance widened to $118.6 bln. Exports accounted for $386.0 bln, while imports climbed to $267.5. In November alone, ...

The federal budget deficit is near zero in 11M24 but will soar in December
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 09 Dec 2024

The Finance Ministry reported that in 11M24, federal budget revenues reached nearly R32.7 and moved steadily toward the annual target of R36.1 trln last month. In November alone, they attained almost R3.5 trln. Both the oil-and-gas (O&G) and the non-O&G revenues exceeded the 11M23 level by about ...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 05 Dec 2024

The FX market volatility soared in the past two weeks. It was high enough earlier in November, hovering between 5% and 10%. However, at the beginning of December, it jumped to 20%. Sanctions against 52 Russian banks, introduced at the end of last month, brought some complications to the tradition...

Recent statistics point to no change: steady economic growth, uneven by sectors, amid accelerating inflation
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 28 Nov 2024

Rosstat reported that in 10M24, the output of five basic sectors grew by 4.8% y-o-y. In October alone, it was up by 3.4% y-o-y – dragged on by poor numbers in agriculture and construction. The former fell by 3.8%, while the latter was up by a mere 2.2% (both numbers are y-o-y for 10M24). This yea...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 21 Nov 2024

Fears of a new wave of military escalation in Ukraine were the main driver for the Russian FX market during the last two weeks. On the back of this, the exchange rate surpassed the R/$100 benchmark. The equity market also went down - by about 3%. Investors are also concerned by the CBR’s another ...

GDP y-o-y growth slows in 3Q24, dragged by agriculture and construction
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 14 Nov 2024

Rosstat published its flash 3Q24 GDP growth flash estimate, and it appeared that economic growth slowed as it posted a mere 3.1% y-o-y as a preliminary figure. So far, Rosstat has not published any other 3Q24 GDP data, such as the nominal number or m-o-m growth (including seasonally adjusted). It...

Russian macro: In search of a new normal
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Forecast · 08 Nov 2024

In 9M24 the Russian economy continued to expand, albeit with some deceleration in recent months. However, in 2024 in total it may grow slightly faster amid a low base in 1Q23. In the currently evolved geopolitical reality, the Russian government has massively increased budgetary spending, which h...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 07 Nov 2024

Interest rates keep rising, and it happens not only due to rising inflation and the key rate hikes but also due to some regulatory measures. One problem is associated with banks’ need to comply with liquidity coverage ratio (LCR), as earlier this year, the CBR started to remove “reliefs” for the ...

The economy keeps growing amid soaring domestic demand and overheating
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 01 Nov 2024

Rosstat reported that in 9M24, the output of the five basic sectors (industry, agriculture, construction, transportation, and trade) was up by 4.9% y-o-y. It grew by 3.0% in September and posted clear signs of a deceleration. The latter looks organic amid a high base in 2H23. Industrial output ex...

The CBR hikes the key rate by 200 bps as inflation remains high
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 28 Oct 2024

Last Friday, the Central Bank hiked the key rate to 21%, well above market expectations. In October, inflation y-o-y will likely be about the same as in September, i.e., 8.6% or slightly higher. Note that inflation fell to low single-digit levels in 1H23 but has accelerated since then, driven by ...

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