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Databanks
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Argentina databank Jul 11 -
Brazil Economics databank Jun 16
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Central America databank Jun 27
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Chile databank May 27
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China databank Mar 21
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Panama databank May 13
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Peru databank Jun 27
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Philippines databank Jul 8
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Poland databank Apr 29
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Russia Economics databank Jul 11
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South Africa databank Jul 11
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Turkey databank Apr 24
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Ukraine databank May 12
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NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - CAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA: POLITICAL PASSIONS IN THE...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
The Russian industry’s dichotomy: manufacturing flat, mining down y-o-y in 9m20
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 16 Oct 2020
Rosstat reported that the industrial production was down in 3Q20 by 5.0% y-o-y, while in 9m20 it was down by 2.9%. Y-o-y contraction was deeper in 2Q20 (-6.5% y-o-y). It was mostly mining which held the industrial growth in the negative area, as OPEC+ deal had a strong impact on oil volumes. In 3...
Russian macro: Combined 2020-21 budget plan reasonable, external balance stable – expect unhurried growth
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 14 Oct 2020
The Finance Ministry announced that both oil and gas revenues and revenues not associated with this industry continued to rebound in September, with VAT and excise taxes accounting for the bulk of non-oil and gas revenues, pointing to a continued gradual rebound of the economy. In 9M20, the go...
OFZ: Borrowing Plan 2021 looks realistic, but implies extra risks for Minfin
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 13 Oct 2020
The Russian government has set a new annual record for domestic borrowing: it raised more than R3 trln on the open market year to date (the FY19 figure was slightly above R2 trln). Domestic local banks brought the lion’s share of demand, in contrast to the previous year, when international player...
Federal budget deficit moderate in September as expenditure growth didn’t impress yet
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 13 Oct 2020
The Finance Ministry announced that both the oil-and-gas revenues and revenues not associated with this industry continued to rebound in September as total revenues exceeded R1.5 trln (versus around R1.3 trln in July and August each month). In 9m20, total revenues reached R13.2 trln, including ov...
Russia’s foreign debt decreased as the ruble weakened
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 13 Oct 2020
The Russian Central bank reported that the country’s total foreign debt decreased from January 1 to October 1by over $30bn to around $461.2. Sovereign debt shrank by over $10bn to around $59.4bn – largely on the back of the weakened ruble, which affected the value of the ruble-denominated bonds h...
Current account in surplus in 3Q, but it is artificially small
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 09 Oct 2020
The Central bank reported that according to its preliminary estimate, the current account surplus reached $24.1 bn in 9m20, while in 3Q20, it was $2.5 bn. As according to the revised numbers, the current account balance temporarily turned into a deficit in 2Q20 (which was -0.5 bn), the ruble sinc...
OFZ issuance: Finance Ministry fulfilled 17.3% of quarterly plan in one auction day
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 07 Oct 2020
On Wednesday the Russian Finance Ministry placed a record high amount of OFZ. During two auctions it managed to place a 10-year floater (linked to RUONIA rate) worth to R316 bln and a 5-year fixed-rate paper worth to R30 bln. In such a way the Government covered more than 17% of the quarterly pla...
Russia’s political/pandemic update: The light is dim, the tunnel looks longer
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 05 Oct 2020
It looks as though earlier hopes to contain the spread of the coronavirus within a relatively short time frame evaporated in September. Newly registered cases in Europe (including Russia) started to rise much faster, and in the Americas they remained high, as well. The epidemiological situation i...
Russia and the West: Recent developments seal the split; economy to adjust
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 23 Sep 2020
The Russian ruble remained under pressure for some time, aggravated recently by fears of the COVID-19 pandemic's regaining momentum (both in Russia and Western Europe) and potential new sanctions against Russia. It looks as though sanctions are mounting on Russia permanently, so the pressure on t...
The Russian economy in August: slow recovery continues
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 18 Sep 2020
Rosstat reported that in August, the economic recovery continued across the board, albeit slowly. Most of the indicators looked better y-o-y than in July, especially taking into account that this year August had fewer working days than a year ago. Some previous data have been revised up slightly,...
Russian industry: gradual recovery to continue
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 16 Sep 2020
According to Rosstat, in August the Russian industry continued its gradual m-o-m recovery, therefore moving toward relatively moderate contraction of around 5.5% in 2020 as a whole. Even in the case of mining, where the oil production is still under the pressure of the OPEC+ deal, there was over ...
Budget and growth: Russia’s 2020 budget spending depends on its ability to borrow
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 14 Sep 2020
Rosstat reported that Russia's GDP was down by 8% in 2Q20 and provided the GDP sectoral breakdown by production. A month ago, when Rosstat announced its flash estimate of 2Q20 GDP, the decline was a bit deeper – 8.5%. Ongoing upward revisions are generally in line with our long-standing view that...
The CBR plans to publish the anticipated long-term trajectory of its key rate
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 10 Sep 2020
Today CBR published the draft of the “Key directions of the monetary policy in 2021-23”. In addition to updating macroeconomic projections and introducing various scenarios of the development of the Russian economy, the regulator indicated that it is almost ready to start forecasting and publishi...
No deflation in August, by year-end inflation is likely to exceed 4%
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 04 Sep 2020
Rosstat reported that m-o-m inflation was at 0% in August, even though some deflation due to seasonal factors was earlier expected. Even though prices of fruits and vegetables fell, so that food prices in total were down by 0.9% m-o-m, and by 1.0% y-o-y, it was not enough to offset increased pric...
Russia’s political and pandemic update: Russia’s alienation to deepen amid Navalny saga
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 04 Sep 2020
As the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Russia exceeded 1 mln people, while Russian economic performance has improved in recent months, Russians became a bit more optimistic in August, even though the daily numbers of newly infected people stopped declining in mid-August and fluctuated below...