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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Jul 11
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Brazil Economics databank Jun 16
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Central America databank Jun 27
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Chile databank May 27
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Jul 7
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Dominican Republic databank Jun 18
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Ecuador databank Jun 20
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Gulf Countries databank Jul 11
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Hungary databank Jun 23
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India databank Jun 26
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Mexico databank Jul 1
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Panama databank May 13
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Peru databank Jun 27
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Philippines databank Jul 8
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Poland databank Apr 29
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Russia Economics databank Jul 11
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South Africa databank Jul 11
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Turkey databank Apr 24
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Ukraine databank May 12
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Venezuela databank Jul 7
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - CAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA: POLITICAL PASSIONS IN THE...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Russian financial markets: retail investors looking for foreign assets
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 28 Aug 2020
The rapid decrease of interest rates in both Russia and the US in the first half of the year fueled the inflow of private investors’ money from banking deposits into the financial markets. As a result the aggregate amount of household funds in brokerage accounts and in asset management companies ...
Russian economy and finances: economy gradually improves, markets to stabilize
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 24 Aug 2020
As several sectors of the economy saw relative improvements in July, such as the strong m-o-m rebound in retail sales that continued to raise consumption following a deep fall reported in April, and better performance in manufacturing, the Economics Ministry estimated that Russia’s GDP contracted...
Economy continued to recover in July, performance differed across sectors
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 20 Aug 2020
Rosstat released preliminary statistics on major economic indicators for July, which confirm that the Russian economy is on a recovery track, even though this recovery is not uniform across sectors.Agriculture was up 4.0% y-o-y last month, which brought the 7m20 tally to 3.3% versus 3.0% in 1H20....
Finance Ministry cancels OFZ placement this week
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 18 Aug 2020 · 1 response
The Russian Ministry of Finance authorities decided not to conduct OFZ primary placement this week. To remind, last week the Finance Ministry failed to attract enough demand at reasonable yield and canceled the placement. This week the cancelation was made in advance. During the last three weeks ...
Russia's industrial performance looked encouraging in July amid some improvements in manufacturing
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 17 Aug 2020
In the aftermath of some break caused by the lockdown in April and May, the Russian industry performed reasonably well in July. Though, mining was still under pressure due to deep contraction in oil production stipulated by the OPEC+ deal. Rosstat reported that oil and gas extraction in July was ...
Federal budget deficit widened in July amid increased spending
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 12 Aug 2020
The Russian federal budget deficit widened in July so that the 7m20 tally reached R1.5 trln as in 1H20 it was slightly over R1.8 trln. Expenditures in July exceeded R2.0 trln while in 1H20 average monthly expenditures stood below R1.7 trln. As is happens regularly, the Finance Ministry releases p...
“Moderate” GDP contraction in 2Q20 sets the potential for an upside revision of economic performance in 2020 as a whole
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 11 Aug 2020
Rosstat reported that in 2Q20 the Russian GDP was down by 8.5% y-o-y. It was a preliminary flash estimate, and no other details were provided. The figure is in line with GKEM Analytica’s view that in 2020 GDP may contract by around 4% and even less if some underestimated activities, such as onlin...
Solid balance of payments in 2020, additional support secured in 2021 by amended double taxation treaties
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 11 Aug 2020 · 1 response
As the Russian government continues fine-tuning of its taxation system, move to renegotiate with several countries agreements on avoidance of the double taxation looks natural and reasonable. Earlier the government decided to impose a 15% tax on interest on bank deposits (if total deposits of an ...
Russia’s pandemic and political update: Dull scenery puzzles the audience
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Aug 2020
In July, Russia’s pandemic situation evolved in the same fashion as a month ago. The number of newly infected people continued to subside, albeit very slowly, while the number of active cases fell from over 245K people in mid-June to around 184K in early August. The number of daily new cases fell...
The ruble: seasonal weakness
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 03 Aug 2020
In the past several weeks, the Russian ruble underperformed many other EM currencies. At the same time, Russia's fundamentals didn’t change significantly. As monthly foreign trade surplus is relatively small (in June it can be estimated at $4.2bn and in July should not yet differ much) the exchan...
Russia: The key rate cut, but CBR plans may become muted
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 27 Jul 2020 · 1 response
he Russian Central Bank cut the key policy rate by 25 bp to 4.25% and released its updated macroeconomic forecast along with some thoughts and interpretations of the ongoing developments. Generally, this updated forecast doesn’t differ much from GKEM Analytica's forecast published last week. Howe...
Russian growth in 2020-2021: a relatively smooth trajectory, albeit uneven across sectors
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Forecast · 23 Jul 2020
Last month some international organizations such as the World Bank, OECD, IMF, updated their 2020-2021 forecasts and turned less optimistic. The global recession in 2020 is now seen a bit deeper, while the rebound in 2021 looks less robust and more prolonged. Russia looks quite unimpressive amid ...
The Russian economy in 1H20: Strong rebound in some sectors in June, a few others to catch up
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 17 Jul 2020
Rosstat reported that retail trade bounced back in June by 15.8% m-o-m (not seasonally adjusted) which pulled y-o-y figure to -7.7%, i.e., well above the initially reported -19.1% and -23.2% May and April figures. The 1H20 y-o-y tally was down by 6.4% with prospects of some recovery in 2H20. The ...
Russia’s growth and finance: dependence on oil price muted, growth trajectory unclear, balance sheets little shaken
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 13 Jul 2020
As the oil price rebounded in May, hovered around $40/bbl in June, and ascended a bit more in early July, the debate as to whether economies can return to their pre-pandemic growth trajectories was renewed in many countries despite high uncertainty. In some sense, Russia is lucky as this debate o...
Current account surplus narrowed in 2Q20 but is set to widen in 2H20
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 10 Jul 2020
The Russian Central Bank reported that in 1H20, the current account surplus was at $22.3bn, which was a little different from the surplus in 1Q20 ($21.7). This implies that in 2Q20, the current account surplus was at near-zero ($0.6bn). Note that these estimates are preliminary and may change goi...