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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Jul 2 -
Brazil Economics databank Jun 16
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Central America databank Jun 27
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Chile databank May 27
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Jul 7
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Dominican Republic databank Jun 18
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Ecuador databank Jun 20
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Gulf Countries databank Jul 4
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Hungary databank Jun 23
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India databank Jun 26
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Mexico databank Jul 1
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Panama databank May 13
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Peru databank Jun 27
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Philippines databank Jun 6
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Poland databank Apr 29
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Russia Economics databank Jun 16
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South Africa databank Jun 9
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Turkey databank Apr 24
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Ukraine databank May 12
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Venezuela databank Jul 7
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - CAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA: POLITICAL PASSIONS IN THE...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Minfin's 3Q20 borrowing plan remains ambitious
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 01 Jul 2020 · 1 response
The Russian Finance Ministry announced its borrowing plan for 3Q20, which assumes the issuance of OFZ worth of R1 trln. This figure can help to estimate the aggregate amount of the placements for FY’20 as traditionally, the government targets a rather even quarterly allocation of borrowing during...
IMF downgrades global and Russia’s growth, while Russia keeps muddling through in May
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 25 Jun 2020
As IMF downgraded its 2020 global growth forecast to -4.9% (down from -3.0% previous forecast) Russia couldn’t remain unaffected. It now appears that the Russian GDP is set to shrink by 6.6% this year (down from -5.5%). IMF sees Russia doing better than the US (GDP down by 8.0%) and the EU (-10.2...
Low demand for 1-year REPO can push OFZ yields higher
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 22 Jun 2020
Today the CBR held its first long-term REPO auction and offered commercial banks 1-year loans up to R400 bln at a floating rate (equal to the key rate plus 25 bps). The aggregate demand was only R5.1 bln, which is definitely below market expectations. GKEM Analytica can offer several possible exp...
The economy is hit but withstands the pandemic pressure
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 19 Jun 2020
Rosstat released preliminary estimates of major economic indicators in May and 5m20 and most of them don’t look too bad given the current circumstances. A few days ago, GKEM Analytica already mentioned that even though manufacturing contracted in May, this contraction was as deep as in most Europ...
The economy may have bottomed in April-May
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 16 Jun 2020
Rosstat reported that industrial production decreased in May and 5m20 by 9.6% and 2.4% y-o-y. In the mining sector respective figures stood at -13.5% and -3.4% y-o-y, while in manufacturing it was not that deep (-7.2% and -1.4% y-o-y respectively). Note that in April contraction in manufacturing ...
Ruble sovereigns: Еxisting market capacity not very large
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 16 Jun 2020
The Russian Finance Ministry is very close to setting a new quarterly record in terms of primary OFZ placement. To beat the previous one, the government needs to raise about R12 bln during the next two auction days. However, even a successful second quarter is not enough to cover all the financin...
Current account surplus widens in May and is set to remain strong in June
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 11 Jun 2020 · 1 response
CBR reported that Russia’s current account and trade surpluses widened in 5m20 relative to 4m20 and reached $28.9bn and $43.2bn (from $23.5bn and $35.6bn as CBR estimated earlier these two surpluses for 4m20). This means that in May the trade surplus unsurprisingly widened in May to $7.6bn as the...
Russian macro: Oil near breakeven price - FX interventions to subside, ruble moving toward equilibrium
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 09 Jun 2020
As oil prices continued to climb in recent weeks, and the Urals blend price exceeded $40/bbl on June 8, the Russian ruble appreciated to below 70 per USD. In early June, the Ministry of Finance announced its daily FX interventions plan, which can only strengthen the ruble in the current environme...
Russia pandemic update: Looking for herd immunity and becoming less affected
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 01 Jun 2020
In the past two weeks, the daily number of confirmed cases has fluctuated between 8K and 10K, and its rate of growth decelerated from over 4% closer to 2%. The disease spread has seemingly stabilized in Russia. It cannot be ruled out that the new “generation” of viruses is now less aggressive tha...
Russian macro: 2020 outlook unchanged amid mixed statistics in April
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Forecast · 28 May 2020
Preliminary statistics for April released by Rosstat indicate that retail sales were sharply lower, both m-o-m and y-o-y, by 28.5% (not seasonally adjusted) and by 23.3%, respectively. The 4M20 tally fell by 2.8% y-o-y. A very deep contraction was generally expected, but the published figures s...
Russia in April: economic performance is uneven across sectors but doesn’t surprise
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 26 May 2020 · 1 response
Rosstat released preliminary statistics for April and reported that retail was strongly down m-o-m and y-o-y - by 28.5% (not seasonally adjusted) and by 23.3% respectively. A very deep contraction was generally expected, but the published figures will help to come up with a more reliable macroeco...
Russia’s pandemic update
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 26 May 2020
As several influential media sources, such as last week the FT, Bloomberg, The Economist, accused Russia of significantly under-reporting the country’s death toll and suggested that the actual number of the virus-related lethal cases should have been higher by around 70%, the Russian authorities ...
Industry contracts in April amid the lockdown, but with now surprises
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 21 May 2020
According to Rosstat Industrial output contracted in April by 6.6% y-o-y and 9.2% m-o-m, which can be treated as a relatively good outcome compared to many other countries. In March, for instance, the industry in the EU and Euro area posted double-digit dive both in y-o-y and m-o-m. Note that in ...
OFZ: Going below 6%
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 21 May 2020
Last Friday the yield of the longest OFZ dropped below 6% for the first time ever. Strong demand from both domestic and international investors not only pushed the curve down but also allowed the Finance Ministry to set a new single day placement record this Wednesday — R169 bln. Market participa...
Russian macro: Budget execution and balance of payments suggest the Russian economy is adjusting
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 18 May 2020 · 1 response
The Finance Ministry reported that the federal budget revenue flow was strong last month as non-oil-and-gas revenues soared by over 76% y-o-y and reached R1.836 trln. As a result, the budget posted a small surplus in April even though expenditures exceeded R2.26 trln, which is very high, given th...