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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 24 Oct 2024

After the end-September rally, the FX market recently remained relatively stable. The ruble hovers around USD/RUB 97 level and looks slightly undervalued. Technically, it may moderately appreciate in the coming weeks, especially if the CBR decides to raise the key rate. However, the budgetary spe...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 10 Oct 2024

The ruble weakened against the dollar in the past couple of weeks, and since Sep 25, it has lost about 3.5% of its value. On the one hand, the settlement for imports has more or less normalized in September, which fuelled demand for FX. On the other hand, the dollar strengthened globally, and som...

Economic growth gradually decelerates in August
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 03 Oct 2024

Rosstat reported that in 8M24, the output of the five basic sectors (industry, agriculture, construction, transportation, and trade) was up by 5.2% y-o-y. In August alone, it increased by a mere 1.7%. This sharp deceleration was mainly caused by agriculture, as it was down y-o-y by 14.7% and 3.2%...

Russian macro: The 2025 budget looks reasonable but the 2024 amendments puzzle investors
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 02 Oct 2024

In recent days, the Russian government submitted to the State Duma the final draft of a three-year rolling budget (2025-2027) that at a glance looked quite peculiar, although that is not unusual. As macroeconomic growth forecasts supporting the budgetary planning were usually conservative, while ...

Industrial growth moderates but still looks not too bad
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 26 Sep 2024

Russian industrial output grew y-o-y by 4.5% and 2.7% in 8M24 and August alone. In the latter case, according to Rosstat, it grew by 0.8% m-o-m in seasonally adjusted terms. In 1H24 industry grew by 5.0%. Some moderation of the y-o-y growth looked natural as in 2023 it grew by over 6.0% from Augu...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 26 Sep 2024

The CBR decided to hike the key rate to 19% (from 18%), which became the most important event for Russian markets in the past couple of weeks. In addition, the regulator kept a hawkish tone in the minutes of the BoD meeting. According to the document, the members of the BoD “calibrated” the state...

Balance of payments and budget remain reasonably stable
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 12 Sep 2024

The CBR reported that the current account surplus reached $40.5 bln in 8M24 (in August alone, it was $2.5 bln). As the oil prices have been on a downward trend since July, Russia’s exports also declined, having reached $33.0 bln in August (in May and June, exports were about $36.6 and $35.4 bln)....

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 12 Sep 2024

The situation in the FX market improved. The CBR efforts supported by the market participants helped to restore regular flow between OTC and the exchanges. As a result, the spread between domestic and international USD/CNY rates evaporated. On top of that, the CNY money market in Russia stabilize...

Russian Macro: GDP Growth to Slow: Aftermath of Overheating
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Sep 2024

A month ago, in the aftermath of the its key rate hike decision, the CBR warned that the Russian economy is operating at full capacity and the demand is overheated by domestic credit and generous budgetary spending. Hence, inflation was high and accelerating. Therefore, some decisive action was r...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 29 Aug 2024

The ruble lost about 2% against the dollar in the past two weeks. Military escalation seems to have been one of the main reasons for this move. Meanwhile, the ruble has moved closer to its fundamentally justified level. Interestingly, the spread between CNY/RUB on the exchanges and OTC started to...

No major change in trends: economic growth remains decent, albeit uneven across segments
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 29 Aug 2024

Rosstat reported that in 7M24, the output of the five basic sectors (a monthly proxy for economic activity accounting for industry, agriculture, construction, trade, and transportation) grew by 5.8% y-o-y – not bad a result, even though the y-o-y growth was higher in 1H24 (6.1%). Rosstat revised ...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 15 Aug 2024

The FX market demonstrated high volatility last week. Despite the extension of the OFAC license for MOEX, many international institutions cut relationships with the latter before August 13 (the deadline for the initial license). As a result, the spread between the exchange rate for CNY/USD on the...

The current account turns slightly negative in July, GDP growth slows in 1H24
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 14 Aug 2024

The Central bank reported that the Current account surplus amounted to $39.7 bln, i.e., slightly lower than in 1H24 as in July alone, it turned slightly negative (-$0.5 bln). It looks as though the fluctuation in oil prices was the main reason for that (apart from a few other factors). At the beg...

Budgetary performance looks normal in July
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 12 Aug 2024

The Ministry of Finance reported that in 7M23 total revenues of the federal budget exceeded R18.7 trln, which is about 56.3% of the annual target. Given that tax collection traditionally rises in 4Q, revenue performance looked not too bad, as increased inflation established a higher nominal tax b...

Russian macro: Central Bank gets more hawkish amid economy's overheating
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 05 Aug 2024

In a recent report we mentioned that in 1H24, as Rosstat reported, the output of the five basic sectors (industry, agriculture, construction, trade, transportation) grew by 5.8% y-o-y. In June alone it was up by a mere 2.5% y-o-y, and as a result, basic sector output grew by 4.8% y-o-y in 2Q24. E...

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