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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Economic growth slows in June but is likely to return to previous trajectory
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 01 Aug 2024

Rosstat reported that in 1H24, the output of the five basic sectors (industry, agriculture, construction, trade, transportation) grew by 5.8% y-o-y. In June alone it was up by a mere 2.5% y-o-y. June brought down the 1Q24 y-o-y to 4.8%. The economy has seemingly slowed markedly in June, however, ...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 01 Aug 2024

On July 26, the CBR decided to hike the key rate by 200 bps (to 18%), which was the upper boundary of what the market expected. The statement bythe regulator’s BoD was moderately hawkish and confirmed that further monetary policy tightening is likely - if inflation continues to accelerate. The ma...

Industrial growth slows in June
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 25 Jul 2024

Rosstat reported that in June, industrial growth decelerated to 1.9% y-o-y. In seasonally adjusted terms, it contracted by 1.5% m-o-m. As a result, in 1H24, Russian industry grew by a mere 4.4% y-o-y. The mining segment contracted in 1H24 by 1.3%, while manufacturing grew by 8.0% (both y-o-y.) In...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 18 Jul 2024

The Russian FX market operates in a specific mode in the aftermath of US sanctions against the local stock exchange and its subsidiaries, which were introduced about a month ago. Problems with the settlement for imports reduced the demand for FX. The ruble became too strong, and this recent appre...

Russian macro: economic trends unchanged, pointing to decent GDP growth in 2024
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 12 Jul 2024

In the past seven days or so Rosstat, Minfin, and the CBR published their regular monthly statistics, allowing us a fresh look at the Russian economy in general. The main conclusion is that the trends that emerged earlier this year have not been broken, and most segments of the economy continued ...

Balance of payments holds steady in 2Q24
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 11 Jul 2024

The CBR reported that the current account surplus amounted to $18.0 bln in 2Q24, which was not as much as in 1Q24 but still enough to secure a $40.6 bln current account surplus in 1H24. The trade balance reached $67.8 bln and was almost the same in both quarters ($33.8 bln and $34.0 bln). Monthly...

The federal budget looks stable in 1H24
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 09 Jul 2024

The Ministry of Finance reported that in 1H24, it collected R5.7 trln in oil-and-gas (O&G) revenues, and another R11.4 trln came from various non-O&G incomes, such as VAT. Meanwhile, VAT is the largest constituency of non-O&G revenues, and according to the 2024 annual plan, it should be about 54....

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 05 Jul 2024

The effects of sanctions against the Russian FX infrastructure are still visible. The ruble remains abnormally strong (currently, it trades around R/$87-88 on the OTC market vs about R/$90 before the announcement of restrictions). It looks abnormal as the bank’s net liquidity position with the CB...

Industry keeps growing steadily as domestic demand remains strong
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 27 Jun 2024

Rosstat reported that in 5M24, the industrial output grew by 5.2% y-o-y. In May, it grew by 5.3% y-o-y and 2.0% m-o-m in seasonally adjusted terms (therefore, offsetting a minor m-o-m seasonally adjusted contraction by 0.1% in April). The mining segment remains almost flat, having grown by a mere...

Russian macro: GDP—uneven performance by sector amid ongoing structural changes
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 20 Jun 2024

In the aftermath of Rosstat’s publication of regular economic statistics that looked decent in 1Q24 and 4M24, June appears to be a month with some negative surprises. Persistently high (and even accelerating) inflation is one of them. The statistical agency reported that the MTD inflation reached...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 20 Jun 2024

The recently announced package of sanctions against several companies (including the National Clearing Center), which provides infrastructure for FX trading at the Moscow Exchange (MOEX), was a negative surprise. Even though the market participants had been considering such a possibility since 20...

GDP grew by 5.4% y-o-y in 1Q24
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 14 Jun 2024

Rosstat reported that the Russian GDP grew by 5.4% y-o-y in 1Q24. The agency published just statistics on the production side. Statistics by end-use will appear later. The published figure appeared generally in line with our forecast as we expected GDP to expand by 4.0% (a bit faster looks also p...

Balance of payments looks stable
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 14 Jun 2024

The Russian Central Bank published its flash estimate of the 5M24 balance of payments, and it looks as though its trends remain sustainable. In 5M24, the current account surplus reached $38.1 bln. It accounted for $5.1 bln in May alone, i.e., slightly lower than in April ($7.1 bln). Exports in Ma...

The Russian budget remains in decent shape
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 11 Jun 2024

The Ministry of Finance reported that in 5M24, total revenues of the federal budget reached R14.3 trln, i.e., a 45.5% y-o-y increase. Oil and gas (O&G) revenues grew by 73.5%, while non-O&G revenues climbed by 34.1%. The former revenue constituency of the budget is quite volatile, and it will lik...

The economy keeps adjusting to new realities
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 06 Jun 2024

Rosstat reported that in 4M24, the combined output of the five basic sectors (a monthly proxy for overall economic activity) grew by 6.3% y-o-y. In April alone it was up by 5.5% y-o-y. Despite some deceleration the overall figure looks decent. Economic growth is largely driven by expanding domest...

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