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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 11 Apr 2024

The FX market remains relatively stable despite rising oil prices. The Western sanctions, combined with the damage to some oil refineries from drone attacks, reduced the profitability of the oil companies. As a result, the supply of hard currency from their side remains subdued. Nevertheless, the...

Smooth federal budget performance in 1Q24
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 09 Apr 2024

Minfin reported that the 1Q24 federal budget revenues accounted for about R8.7 trln (24.9% of the annual plan set at nearly R35.1 trln). The figure looks decent, as in 2024, the revenue target exceeds last year’s actual revenue figure by 20.4%. In 1Q24, the government collected R2.9 trln of the o...

Economic performance remained decent in February
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 04 Apr 2024

Following a previous publication on the performance of the Russian industry in 2M24 (up by 6.6% y-o-y and by 8.5% y-o-y in February alone), Rosstat reported that the output of the five basic sectors (industry, agriculture, construction, trade, transportation) grew in 2M24 by 7.8% y-o-y. In Februa...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 28 Mar 2024

The main event in Russia during the last two weeks was the terrorist attack on the concert hall in the suburbs of Moscow, which led to a massive number of victims. Despite the unprecedented scale of the tragic event, the reaction of financial markets was moderate, as the ruble lost less than 1%, ...

Industry posts steady growth in 2M24
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 28 Mar 2024

Rosstat reported that in February and 2M24, the performance of the Russian industry looked not too bad, as the industrial output grew y-o-y by 8.5% and 6.6%. To some extent, faster y-o-y growth in February stemmed from additional working days (due to a leap year). However, it looks like it is not...

Russian macro: balance of payments to remain stable in 2024 as foreign trade flows evolve
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 20 Mar 2024

The recent CBR statistics indicate that Russia’s current account remained steady in 2M24 amid relatively stable exports and imports. The trade surplus was wide enough to overlap the traditionally negative services and income balances. The spread between Brent and Urals reportedly narrowed in rece...

The federal budget remains in decent shape in 2M24
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 14 Mar 2024

The Ministry of Finance reported that in 2M24, the federal budget accumulated over R5 trln in revenues over R1.6 trln coming as oil-and-gas taxes and about R3.4 trln as the non-O&G ones). These amounts accounted for 14.3% of the annual plan in the case of total revenues and 14.1% and 14.5% in the...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 14 Mar 2024

The ruble recently fluctuated within a relatively wide range (R/$ 90-93), and these fluctuations were driven mainly by local factors rather than fundamental trends. According to the CBR statistics, sales of hard currency by top exporters decreased in February from $12.9 bln to $10.4 bln. The latt...

Russian macro: Early 2024 economic trends remain generally unchanged but hint at deceleration
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 01 Mar 2024

Rosstat recently published the economic statistics for January, and the numbers confirmed that trends remain unchanged in general. For instance, the aggregate output in the basic sectors of the economy (industry, agriculture, construction, transportation, trade) grew by 5.4% y-o-y last month, whi...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 29 Feb 2024

A couple of days ago the CBR published a note with comments to its latest version of the medium-term macroeconomic forecast, and it now appears that the regulator expects that banking sectors' net liquidity will turn into deficit in 2H24 (while in recent months it was in surplus of a decent size ...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 15 Feb 2024

Investors are waiting for a new sanctions package - to be announced on Feb 24. There are no indications that it will target the financial sector, but this scenario cannot be ruled out. The ruble weakened in anticipation of this event but remains more or less stable. Financial markets, in general,...

Russian macro 2024: Adjusting to new realities may be challenging as realities change
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Forecast · 14 Feb 2024

It turned out that Russia’s 2023 economic growth looked decent, as its nominal GDP exceeded R171 trln and grew by 3.6% in real terms according to Rosstat’s preliminary estimates. Eventually, after a series of revisions, the nominal figure may be even higher—as has happened repeatedly in the past....

Federal budget revenue collection looks decent in January 2024 as the economy expands - GDP grew by 3.6% in 2023
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 07 Feb 2024

The Ministry of Finance reported that oil-and-gas (O&G) revenues reached R675 bn in January. It was 58.7% higher than a year ago. The non-O&G revenues accounted for R1.721 trln (up by 84.8% y-o-y). As a result, total revenues grew by 76.6% y-o-y. Even though January 2023 is not a good base for co...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 01 Feb 2024

The FX market has not been not too active in recent weeks. The government keeps discussing an extension of the mandatory sale of FX revenues for exporters (currently, this regime finishes at the end of April), while the Central bank opposes the idea. From the fundamental point of view, current re...

Russian macro 2023: Feels like an ordinary year
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 29 Jan 2024

Rosstat’s recent revisions of the national accounts for 2021 and 2022 suggest that the Russian economy performed somewhat better in those years than previously estimated. As the quarterly GDP statistics were revised accordingly, it looks as though the current growth trends appear more positive th...

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