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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Russian Macro: GDP Growth to Slow: Aftermath of Overheating
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Sep 2024

A month ago, in the aftermath of the its key rate hike decision, the CBR warned that the Russian economy is operating at full capacity and the demand is overheated by domestic credit and generous budgetary spending. Hence, inflation was high and accelerating. Therefore, some decisive action was r...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 29 Aug 2024

The ruble lost about 2% against the dollar in the past two weeks. Military escalation seems to have been one of the main reasons for this move. Meanwhile, the ruble has moved closer to its fundamentally justified level. Interestingly, the spread between CNY/RUB on the exchanges and OTC started to...

No major change in trends: economic growth remains decent, albeit uneven across segments
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 29 Aug 2024

Rosstat reported that in 7M24, the output of the five basic sectors (a monthly proxy for economic activity accounting for industry, agriculture, construction, trade, and transportation) grew by 5.8% y-o-y – not bad a result, even though the y-o-y growth was higher in 1H24 (6.1%). Rosstat revised ...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 15 Aug 2024

The FX market demonstrated high volatility last week. Despite the extension of the OFAC license for MOEX, many international institutions cut relationships with the latter before August 13 (the deadline for the initial license). As a result, the spread between the exchange rate for CNY/USD on the...

The current account turns slightly negative in July, GDP growth slows in 1H24
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 14 Aug 2024

The Central bank reported that the Current account surplus amounted to $39.7 bln, i.e., slightly lower than in 1H24 as in July alone, it turned slightly negative (-$0.5 bln). It looks as though the fluctuation in oil prices was the main reason for that (apart from a few other factors). At the beg...

Budgetary performance looks normal in July
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 12 Aug 2024

The Ministry of Finance reported that in 7M23 total revenues of the federal budget exceeded R18.7 trln, which is about 56.3% of the annual target. Given that tax collection traditionally rises in 4Q, revenue performance looked not too bad, as increased inflation established a higher nominal tax b...

Russian macro: Central Bank gets more hawkish amid economy's overheating
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 05 Aug 2024

In a recent report we mentioned that in 1H24, as Rosstat reported, the output of the five basic sectors (industry, agriculture, construction, trade, transportation) grew by 5.8% y-o-y. In June alone it was up by a mere 2.5% y-o-y, and as a result, basic sector output grew by 4.8% y-o-y in 2Q24. E...

Economic growth slows in June but is likely to return to previous trajectory
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 01 Aug 2024

Rosstat reported that in 1H24, the output of the five basic sectors (industry, agriculture, construction, trade, transportation) grew by 5.8% y-o-y. In June alone it was up by a mere 2.5% y-o-y. June brought down the 1Q24 y-o-y to 4.8%. The economy has seemingly slowed markedly in June, however, ...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 01 Aug 2024

On July 26, the CBR decided to hike the key rate by 200 bps (to 18%), which was the upper boundary of what the market expected. The statement bythe regulator’s BoD was moderately hawkish and confirmed that further monetary policy tightening is likely - if inflation continues to accelerate. The ma...

Industrial growth slows in June
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 25 Jul 2024

Rosstat reported that in June, industrial growth decelerated to 1.9% y-o-y. In seasonally adjusted terms, it contracted by 1.5% m-o-m. As a result, in 1H24, Russian industry grew by a mere 4.4% y-o-y. The mining segment contracted in 1H24 by 1.3%, while manufacturing grew by 8.0% (both y-o-y.) In...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 18 Jul 2024

The Russian FX market operates in a specific mode in the aftermath of US sanctions against the local stock exchange and its subsidiaries, which were introduced about a month ago. Problems with the settlement for imports reduced the demand for FX. The ruble became too strong, and this recent appre...

Russian macro: economic trends unchanged, pointing to decent GDP growth in 2024
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 12 Jul 2024

In the past seven days or so Rosstat, Minfin, and the CBR published their regular monthly statistics, allowing us a fresh look at the Russian economy in general. The main conclusion is that the trends that emerged earlier this year have not been broken, and most segments of the economy continued ...

Balance of payments holds steady in 2Q24
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 11 Jul 2024

The CBR reported that the current account surplus amounted to $18.0 bln in 2Q24, which was not as much as in 1Q24 but still enough to secure a $40.6 bln current account surplus in 1H24. The trade balance reached $67.8 bln and was almost the same in both quarters ($33.8 bln and $34.0 bln). Monthly...

The federal budget looks stable in 1H24
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 09 Jul 2024

The Ministry of Finance reported that in 1H24, it collected R5.7 trln in oil-and-gas (O&G) revenues, and another R11.4 trln came from various non-O&G incomes, such as VAT. Meanwhile, VAT is the largest constituency of non-O&G revenues, and according to the 2024 annual plan, it should be about 54....

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 05 Jul 2024

The effects of sanctions against the Russian FX infrastructure are still visible. The ruble remains abnormally strong (currently, it trades around R/$87-88 on the OTC market vs about R/$90 before the announcement of restrictions). It looks abnormal as the bank’s net liquidity position with the CB...

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