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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 09 Nov 2023

The FX market remained relatively calm at the beginning of November. The widened current account surplus, accompanied by some measures of capital controls, caused the ruble to appreciate. It strengthened to R/$92 as of November 8. The new sanctions package, announced in early November, may negati...

Federal budget surplus narrows as revenues climb
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 09 Nov 2023

The Ministry of Finance reported that the federal budget surplus narrowed to R1.235 trln in 10M23. The original officially approved 2023 budget targeted a deficit of R2.925 trln. The deficit was widest in 4M23 (R3.049 trln) as the government spent money ahead of schedule in the early year to fina...

Economy grows at decent pace and remains overheated
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 02 Nov 2023

Rosstat reported that in 9M23, the output of the five basic sectors grew by 4.8% y-o-y. In September alone, it grew by 8.9% y-o-y - largely due to a low base effect. The industry grew by 3.3% and 5.6% over the same periods (both numbers are y-o-y). Agriculture moved from negative territory to pos...

Russian macro: the CBR turns increasingly hawkish amid an overheating economy
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 30 Oct 2023

On October 27, the CBR raised the key rate by a surprising 200 bps, which was well above market expectations (100 bps). The regulator explicitly mentioned that its monetary policy will remain tight, and the average annual key rate won’t change much in 2024. The CBR hinted that it may consider an ...

Russian industry continues to expand, albeit still moderately
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 26 Oct 2023

Rosstat reported that industrial production grew by 3.3% y-o-y in 9M23, and the figure appears not very impressive. However, it is still skewed by base effects. The more indicative could be a look at 3Q23 and September statistics. It grew by 5.3% and 5.6% (y-o-y in both cases) in these two period...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 26 Oct 2023

In response to the recent excessive FX market volatility, the Russian authorities imposed some additional elements of capital controls. Since mid-October, the main 43 exporters are obliged to repatriate not less than 80% of their export revenues and then to sell on the local market not less than ...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 12 Oct 2023

Despite all the efforts of monetary authorities, the exchange rate remains volatile. Until recently, the ruble was trading around $/R100 with significant intraday fluctuations. The ruble remained at this level despite the recent widening of the current account surplus. According to CBR statistics...

Russian macro: economic growth to moderate in 2024
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Forecast · 10 Oct 2023

The country’s economic situation appears decent, as Rosstat reported that the output of the five basic sectors grew by 4.2% y-o-y in 8M23. This indicator is a kind of monthly proxy of economic activity, as it covers over 50% of GDP and comprises industry, agriculture, construction, trade, and tra...

Current account widens in 3Q23 as income balance turns less negative
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 10 Oct 2023

CBR published its preliminary estimate of the 9M23 balance of payments, including some monthly numbers. The current account and the trade surpluses widened in September to $9.6 bn and $13.1bn from $5.7 bn and $11.0 bn in August. In July, these surpluses were much narrower ($1.3 bn and $6.1 bn). I...

Federal budget execution numbers look decent
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 08 Oct 2023

The Ministry of Finance reported that the federal budget was in deficit in 9M23, albeit the latter was narrower than in 8M23 (R1.7 trln versus R2.4 trln), implying that the budget was in surplus in September. It was the second month in a row of a federal budget surplus. Revenue collection improve...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 28 Sep 2023

A series of rate hikes by the CBR had helped to stabilize the situation on the FX market, and in the previous couple of weeks, the ruble hovered slightly above R/$96. Nevertheless, the authorities are still discussing some measures that could either increase the supply of foreign currency or limi...

The Russian economy keeps adjusting to fundamental external changes
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 28 Sep 2023

Rosstat reported that in 8M23, the output of the five basic sectors grew by 4.2% y-o-y. In August alone, it was up by 7.3%. Industry grew in 8M23 and August by 3.0% and 5.6% y-o-y. The mining segment was still slightly down (1.2%-1.3% y-o-y in August and 8M23), while manufacturing grew by 10.3% y...

Russian macro: Budget deficit to shrink in 2024 and beyond amid higher revenues, moderate spending
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 26 Sep 2023

In recent weeks, Russian government officials have made several statements that sounded quite optimistic. Strangely enough, the authorities expressed some concerns about the weakened ruble and started talking about some potential administrative measures to “stabilize” the currency. However, such ...

The CBR hiked the key rate by 100 bps to 13%
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 17 Sep 2023

The Board of Directors of the Russian Central Bank decided to raise the key rate once again on September 15 and quoted the usual reasons behind this move. Among those are elevated inflation (i.e., above the 4% target), high inflation expectations (the CBR itself expects inflation to move from the...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 14 Sep 2023

The ruble remains volatile as messages coming from different sources contradict each other. On the one hand, CBR officials last week directly indicated that it could hike the key rate again. The latter was a hawkish signal and caused some appreciation of the currency. On the other hand, top manag...

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