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Corruption and Political Crisis Threaten Economic Recovery
ECUADOR · Report · 11 Aug 2017 · 1 response

The internal crisis in the governing Alianza Pais has ballooned into a government and national political crisis that is threatening President Lenín Moreno’s already-difficult plan to lead Ecuador to economic recovery. The roots of the crisis are twofold. The first is ex-president Rafael Correa...

A SHAKY BUDGET
ECUADOR · In Brief · 29 Jul 2017

President Moreno referred to the status of the Ecuadorian economy as "critical" last Friday night when he presented a preliminary version of the Non-Financial Sector Budget for 2017. The assembly will be rest for two weeks and will review the budget after this period. According to the law, the Mi...

“No, The Table Wasn’t Set”
ECUADOR · Forecast · 24 Jul 2017 · 1 response

“No, the table wasn’t set.” That was President Lenín Moreno’s reply to former president Rafael Correa, who claimed he left the table “set for the new government” -- referring to a supposedly buoyant economic situation (assessed as such only by Correa and his loyal followers in Congress, and by so...

Will Correa Wait Four Years To Return?
ECUADOR · Report · 19 Jun 2017 · 1 response

President Lenín Boltaire Moreno is facing, and will continue to face, many challenges. Not all of them come from the outside. It took former president Rafael Correa less than a month to publicly air his disagreements with some of Moreno’s decisions, especially with his naming of a new anti-corr...

After Me, Comes the Flood
ECUADOR · Report · 19 May 2017 · 2 responses

In the past days the Assembly by mandate of President Correa cancelled all bilateral investment agreements with around 15 countries included China and the United States. The argument behind is that those agreements have brought more harm than benefits to Ecuador because of the biased ruling of i...

Can Moreno Govern a Divided Country?
ECUADOR · Forecast · 24 Apr 2017 · 1 response

President-elect Lenín Moreno refused all invitations to debate during the two months of campaigning – as he was probably self-conscious about his nonetheless-evident weaknesses. After a complicated and almost violent campaign that ended with a recount of close to 1.2 million votes, he was finall...

Social Unrest and Uncertainty Continues
ECUADOR · In Brief · 07 Apr 2017

We are still waiting for official GDP data and economic information for Q4 2016. This information should have been published by March 31st, and was not. Also, the fiscal web page from the Ministry of Finance is not active. Although we have given our estimates in past reports and we do not expect ...

Alianza Pais will Continue for Four More Years
ECUADOR · In Brief · 02 Apr 2017

The candidate from Alianza Pais, Lenin Moreno, has officially been declared the next president of Ecuador with 51.07% of votes against the candidate from the opposition, Guillermo Lasso who received the vote of 48.96% of the population. The results from the election show a highly polarized countr...

Too Close To Be Good
ECUADOR · Report · 23 Mar 2017

The latest polls published March 21st by four independent pollsters give Lenin Moreno, the official candidate an advantage of around 4% over Guillermo Lasso, the candidate from the opposition for the second round election that will take place next April the second. Null and blank votes sum a...

Lenin Moreno leads electoral polls
ECUADOR · In Brief · 22 Mar 2017

Four pollsters published electoral forecasts yesterday and all of them give an advantage to the official candidate Lenin Moreno that is around 4% to 5% of valid votes. The trend, however, seems to favor Moreno which makes it quite difficult for Lasso to turn this result around. On average they pl...

Correa Directly Threatens Democracy
ECUADOR · In Brief · 23 Feb 2017

After admitting the fact of a second electoral round, President Correa´s behavior was quite erratic. First, he said he had no fears of the outcome on April 2 since Guillermo Lasso is the easiest candidate to defeat. But at the same time he threatened to apply the mechanism of “cross dead”. This m...

The Legacy From the People’s Revolution
ECUADOR · Report · 22 Feb 2017 · 1 response

With about 90% of votes counted, the official candidate Lenin Moreno received 39.12% against 28.31% for Guillermo Lasso. Therefore, Moreno already has more than 10% over Lasso´s votes – one of the requisites to win the election in just one round, and is 0.89% away from the second condition: at le...

ELECTIONS: Uncertainty and Anger
ECUADOR · In Brief · 20 Feb 2017

By 10:20 this morning 88.4% of votes have been counted giving the official candidate Lenin Moreno 39.11% of valid votes and Guillermo Lasso 28.30%. With these results, a second round will be necessary. However, we will have to wait for the official announcement from the National Electoral Council...

Moreno and Lasso Probably Disputing the Presidency
ECUADOR · In Brief · 10 Feb 2017

According to the Electoral Law, February 8th was the last day to publish presidential polls results before the elections on February 19th. These last publications are not much different from the ones provided back in January 24th. Around 30% of Ecuadorians still have not yet decided whom they wil...

Mislead and Succeed
ECUADOR · Report · 25 Jan 2017

The government has played a masterful hand, using the Odebrecht scandal regarding bribes paid to Ecuadorian government officers to cover up the more costly case​ of Petroecuador, in which top officials such as Carlos Pareja Yanuselli are involved. Ecuadorians seem to be more preoccupied with...

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