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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Healthy Vanity
ECUADOR · Forecast · 25 Nov 2015

In a sign of healthy and deserved vanity, President Rafael Correa has announced that he won’t run for reelection in 2017. Given the obvious fragmentation and mediocrity of the opposition, he said, his otherwise crucial presence wouldn’t be necessary to guarantee his party’s continuance in power. ...

Minister Herrera Assures Payment of Global Bonds 2015
ECUADOR · In Brief · 04 Nov 2015

Minister of Finance Fausto Herrera announced today that financing needs for next year's budget will be around $6.6 billion. According to the Minister sources for $4.5 billion are already identified: $2 b coming from multilateral institutions (World Bank, IDB, CAF) and $1.5b from China. The govern...

Sour Drink
ECUADOR · Report · 22 Oct 2015

Q1 and Q2 GDP shrinkage, of -0.1% and -0.3%, confirmed widespread fears that Ecuador is in recession. No one was surprised. But officials have been slow to react, only recently talking about economic adjustments they admit might be a “sour drink for the population.” Minister of Finance Fausto ...

Dollarization At All Cost
ECUADOR · Report · 17 Sep 2015

Dollarization at all costs was Finance Minister Fausto Herrera’s promise during a recent press conference – where listeners responded with a standing ovation. Herrera said the government would do whatever it takes to maintain the dollarized regime, by increasing the inflow of dollars, and protect...

As if Nature Itself is Protesting
ECUADOR · Forecast · 24 Aug 2015

Though it’s still too soon to speak of recession in Ecuador, Q1 GDP performance, the negative oil price outlook for H2, casts doubt upon the official growth estimate of 1.9% for 2015. And economic prospects for 2016 look even worse as the Minister of Finance, Fausto Herrera declared the governmen...

NEW EXPENDITURE CUT
ECUADOR · In Brief · 19 Aug 2015

Minister of Finance, Fausto Herrera announced that the government will cut $800 million from expenditures in addition to the $1.42 billion announced back in January 2015. Public investment will be reduced by $700 million and current expenditures by $100 million. We already expected a new cut anno...

COTOPAXI: SERIOUS THREAT OF ERUPTION
ECUADOR · In Brief · 15 Aug 2015

Cotopaxi, the highest active volcano in the world and located close to largely populated areas including Quito, had three important explosions last Friday and the government has raised the alert from yellow to orange. The government has also issued a decree declaring an "state of exception" which...

Growth Slows Amid Loss of Confidence
ECUADOR · Report · 22 Jul 2015

Executive SummaryEcuadorians are already seeing the painful effects of falling oil prices. Though Q1 economic growth was 3% y/y, but it was down 0.5% from Q4 2014, deepening the downtrend that started in 2013. Household consumption fell 0.57% q/q, government consumption by 1.7%, and gross capital...

“I Don’t Believe in Bequests, For Either Family Or Businesses”
ECUADOR · Report · 22 Jun 2015

Executive Summary That was the thrust of President Rafael Correa’s statement, during a recent media appearance in Guayaquil, in response to Ecuadorians’ massive opposition to new bills that would sharply increase bequest and capital gains taxes. The country, led by Quito and Guayaquil, has been s...

Too Little, Too Late
ECUADOR · Report · 21 May 2015

Executive Summary It has taken the government more than six months to recognize that the oil price slide is not temporary, and that structural changes in the industry likewise require structural changes in its macroeconomic approach. President Rafael Correa has finally announced that he will purc...

All You Need Is Ecuador!
ECUADOR · Report · 29 Apr 2015

Executive SummaryIn a plan to develop tourism as a main public revenue source, the government has launched a massive marketing campaign it calls “All you need is Ecuador” – a slogan meant to evoke the Beatles’ song “All You Need is Love.” President Rafael Correa traveled to the United States to p...

Growth Outlook Wan, as Government Hunts for Finance
ECUADOR · Forecast · 20 Apr 2015

Executive Summary The dramatic fall in oil prices has forced the government to cut $1.4 billion from its 2015 budget – so we expect growth to plunge year, though it should recover somewhat if certain hydroelectric projects begin operating by mid-2016.We project 2015 growth at less than 1%, if oil...

Capacity To Pay Debt Tightening While Willingness To Pay Goes Up
ECUADOR · Report · 24 Mar 2015

Executive Summary Around 100,000 people from all sectors of the economy marched last Thursday to protest against the draconian import taxes recently imposed by the government to control the balance of trade deficit.However, this was not the only claim.The arrogance of the regime, the attacks to f...

Ecuadorian Government: Whatever it takes
ECUADOR · In Brief · 12 Mar 2015

Despite cuts of $1.4 b in expenditures, the 2015 budget still shows financing needs above $10 b. China came to the rescue with a comprehensive package of loans that amount to $7.5 b but only about $4b will be available in this year. This issue combined with falling yields for the Ecuadorian bonds...

Minister Takes Fall For Trade Drade
ECUADOR · Report · 02 Mar 2015

Executive Summary Minister of Industries Francisco Rivadeneira was fired on February 19th, apparently over a dramatic tariff hike on Colombian and Peruvian imports, a move quickly rescinded in the Colombian case, and being reconsidered for Peru. Falling oil prices, combined with dollar appreciati...

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