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Cautious optimism after the shock
ECUADOR · Report · 21 Feb 2025

The results of the first round of the presidential election came as a shock to many Ecuadorians—especially Noboa, his party, and supporters who, based on the polls, expected a win in this round. Not only was the close vote atypical of a first round (only 22,000 votes separated Noboa from Gonzalez...

Tough prospects for Daniel Noboa
ECUADOR · In Brief · 09 Feb 2025

By 9 pm, February 9th, with 56% of polls having been counted, President Daniel Noboa who started leading the presidential race with 6% over Luisa Gonzalez, is now down to less than 2% of difference. The sample should be pretty stable at this point thus, this difference might continue until tomorr...

Ecuadorians’ despair translates into uncertainty
ECUADOR · Report · 21 Jan 2025 · 1 response

President Daniel Noboa started his term last year with public support over 64%, which by the end of 2024 had fallen to 42%. While his support has taken a deep dive, it is not very different from the numbers President Correa had at the start and end of his terms, but within a much shorter time fra...

Hope due to the partial end of blackouts
ECUADOR · Report · 17 Dec 2024

President Noboa offered to end the electricity blackouts by December 20, to the joy of almost all Ecuadorians, who have endured harsh day-to-day circumstances since last September. However, the six major electricity-consuming corporations, including steel manufacturers, mining companies and Petro...

Free path to the presidency or two nails in a coffin?
ECUADOR · Report · 14 Nov 2024

The Ecuadorian political sky has been darkened by clouds of political abuse instead of clouds bringing desperately needed rain. Vice President Veronica Abad was “suspended” for 150 days by an administrative decision from the Minister of Labor, and the candidacy of Jan Topic, who was coming on ...

From dark to darker
ECUADOR · Forecast · 15 Oct 2024

Our September report was entitled “A dark fourth quarter". That is precisely what we expect for the past quarter, with the problem of blackouts of up to 10 hours for every industrial and household sector and no near-term solution in sight, since rain—the main ally of a slow government—will not be...

A dark fourth quarter, continued
ECUADOR · In Brief · 19 Sep 2024

As a follow up and complement to our monthly report for September, we present here the latest update from the Central Bank to forecast GDP growth this year. The Central Bank has downgraded y/y growth from 1% to 0.9% in view of the unpublished yet results for H1. Although we concur with a lower y/...

A dark fourth quarter
ECUADOR · Report · 18 Sep 2024

One thing that can be said about Daniel Noboa is that he does not procrastinate. In the midst of a severe energy crisis caused by the bad situation of the electricity sector, he sent a bill proposing the re-installation of foreign military bases in Ecuador. The last US military base, located in M...

Political gender violence or attempt at a coup d'état?
ECUADOR · Report · 19 Aug 2024

The political saga between President Daniel Noboa and Vice President Veronica Abad has escalated to mutual accusations of gender-based political violence on the side of Abad and attempts at a coup d’état raised by the official side. The truth of the matter is that Noboa, who has a high probabilit...

The dark political web
ECUADOR · Forecast · 16 Jul 2024

The constant confrontation between the executive and legislative powers sometimes distracts attention from other developments that might have important consequences for the political stability of the country and its future. New members of the Council of Citizen Participation and Social Control...

A thorny path towards the presidency
ECUADOR · Report · 17 Jun 2024

President Noboa still holds close to 50% of popular support. He has stated his intention to run for president in 2025, and his party has been officially qualified by the Electoral Council to do so. His chances of passing into the second round of the presidential elections of next May are high, bu...

A political victory amidst the darkness
ECUADOR · Report · 10 May 2024

The past referendum and public consultation gave President Daniel Noboa a victory on nine out of the 11 questions proposed. This was a setback for the Correistas, who were campaigning for a “no” vote on all the questions. The winning questions all concerned crime control measures, while the two r...

A gentle drizzle to calm the ongoing drought
ECUADOR · In Brief · 25 Apr 2024

The Republic closed an extended facility agreement with the IMF for the next 48 months for $4.0 billion. As of last March, we estimated needs of at least $3.5b to give some breathing space to the tight fiscal situation. This estimate was made before the new challenges Ecuador is facing due to the...

Expected victory amidst an energy crisis
ECUADOR · In Brief · 22 Apr 2024

Ecudorians voted yesterday on the public referendum and consult for 11 questions, 9 of which are related to security and corruption issues, one to international arbitration for public contracts and one for labor hiring by the hour – these two questions are currently prohibited under the constitut...

Diplomatic impasse with unpredictable consequences
ECUADOR · Forecast · 08 Apr 2024

As we write this report, the world press is reporting on the trespass of the Mexican Embassy ordered by President Noboa last Friday night to capture former Vice Jorge President Glas, a convicted felon who should not have been a subject of the political asylum granted him by the Mexican government...

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