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The youngest president ever
ECUADOR · Forecast · 23 Oct 2023

Daniel Noboa, at 35, is the youngest candidate ever to win a presidential election in Ecuador. His performance in the first presidential debate raised votes from young people, and this together with a strong 50% vote against the Correistas, helped him to succeed. He is a businessman in charge of ...

Webinar replay - Ecuador: What to expect from the new government amid constraints
ECUADOR · Report · 20 Oct 2023

Get insight into how President-elect Daniel Noboa will attempt to solve Ecuador's current severe problems of insecurity, fiscal pressure, and the threat of a strong El Niño—all with the replay of our webinar, "Ecuador: What to expect from the new government amid constraints".

Ecuador Slide Presentation: What to expect from the new government amid constraints
ECUADOR · Report · 19 Oct 2023

Get insight into how President-elect Daniel Noboa will attempt to solve Ecuador's current severe problems of insecurity, fiscal pressure, and the threat of a strong El Niño—all with the slide presentation from our webinar, "Ecuador: What to expect from the new government amid constraints".

Transition government: Bridge over troubled waters
ECUADOR · Report · 25 Sep 2023 · 1 response

The president elected on October 15 will have to confront the problems of violence from organized crime and violence from nature. Experts have announced that El Niño this year will be stronger than in previous years, although not as extreme as those of 1982 and 1997. On the other hand, violenc...

An unexpected second runner-up
ECUADOR · Report · 28 Aug 2023

While the presidential outcome that placed Daniel Noboa in second place in the first-round presidential election came as a surprise to virtually every Ecuadorian, the results obtained in the Assembly and its distribution were in line with our expectations. Four blocs will represent close to ...

A second electoral round with a huge surprise
ECUADOR · In Brief · 20 Aug 2023

With around 75% of votes counted at national level, it is certain that Ecuadorians will go to vote in a second round in which Luisa Gonzalez and Daniel Noboa will be seeking the presidency of the country. While the 33% vote for Gonzalez were somewhat expected and represents the hard vote for the ...

Fernando Villavicencio has been murdered
ECUADOR · In Brief · 09 Aug 2023

Fernando Villavicencio, was a presidential candidate until today at 6 pm.  He was murdered with three bullets to his head perpetrated  by a hit person during a political meeting that was being held at an academic institution. He was the former head of the fiscalization committee in the Assembly a...

Expected disappointment
ECUADOR · Forecast · 18 Jul 2023

An economic downtrend this year has been evidenced in falling inflation and non-oil imports in the first five months. Recently published GDP data for Q1 confirmed this trend. Although y/y growth was positive at 0.7%, it is the lowest since Q2 2021, while the quarterly performance was the worst s...

Who wants to be president?
ECUADOR · Report · 21 Jun 2023

President Lasso has been governing under the mechanism of “cross death” for a little over a month and has sent two economic decrees for the approval of the Constitutional Court. The first one reforms income tax collections to benefit people earning below $3,000 per month, which will imply $200 mi...

Worst Fears Confirmed
ECUADOR · In Brief · 13 Jun 2023

Official candidates will be announced by the Electoral Council next August 6th, and the electoral race will start on August 8th, including a presidential debate that will take place on August 13th. Of the eight announced presidential and vice-presidential candidates, only Daniel Noboa and Veronic...

A complicated political panorama for the elections
ECUADOR · In Brief · 31 May 2023

The schedule for the elections of next August is putting pressure on all political organizations to define their alliances and candidates, who should be registered at the Electoral Council by next June 7th after being defined through an internal election process. So far, the candidates who have c...

Russian roulette once again
ECUADOR · Report · 22 May 2023 · 2 responses

For many, the “cross-death” option became necessary after months of political battle between the executive and legislative branches and allows Ecuadorians to choose their political destiny once again. But somehow, for those who a few weeks ago were proposing it in Congress, it is an illegal dicta...

Cross Death: Long Awaited
ECUADOR · In Brief · 17 May 2023

Yesterday, Guillermo Lasso attended the Assembly session to present his defense on the accusations of corruption that were the basis for his impeachment. He did not announce the cross-death process during his speech, but did so last night at 7 pm, and requested the Electoral Council to call new e...

Opposition wins Presidency of the Assembly
ECUADOR · In Brief · 14 May 2023

With 96 votes—more than even UNES and the Social Christians expected—Virgilio Saquicela his loyal voice today won the presidency of the Assembly for two more years. This is four more votes than those needed to impeach President Lasso.  Seventeen legislators from Packakutik and Izquierda Democrati...

Hour Zero Approaches
ECUADOR · In Brief · 11 May 2023

The report recommending Guillermo Lasso should not be impeached was approved by four members of the review committee and rejected by five. According to the legal procedure, the plenary approved to start the impeachment process with 88 votes. The impeachment process could last two weeks or less, a...

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