GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights | Ecuador

The political saga between President Daniel Noboa and Vice President Veronica Abad has escalated to mutual accusations of gender-based political violence on the side of Abad and attempts at a coup d’état raised by the official side. The truth of the matter is that Noboa, who has a high probabilit...

The dark political web

ECUADOR · Forecast · 16 Jul 2024

The constant confrontation between the executive and legislative powers sometimes distracts attention from other developments that might have important consequences for the political stability of the country and its future. New members of the Council of Citizen Participation and Social Control...

A thorny path towards the presidency

ECUADOR · Report · 17 Jun 2024

President Noboa still holds close to 50% of popular support. He has stated his intention to run for president in 2025, and his party has been officially qualified by the Electoral Council to do so. His chances of passing into the second round of the presidential elections of next May are high, bu...

A political victory amidst the darkness

ECUADOR · Report · 10 May 2024

The past referendum and public consultation gave President Daniel Noboa a victory on nine out of the 11 questions proposed. This was a setback for the Correistas, who were campaigning for a “no” vote on all the questions. The winning questions all concerned crime control measures, while the two r...

A gentle drizzle to calm the ongoing drought

ECUADOR · In Brief · 25 Apr 2024

The Republic closed an extended facility agreement with the IMF for the next 48 months for $4.0 billion. As of last March, we estimated needs of at least $3.5b to give some breathing space to the tight fiscal situation. This estimate was made before the new challenges Ecuador is facing due to the...

Expected victory amidst an energy crisis

ECUADOR · In Brief · 22 Apr 2024

Ecudorians voted yesterday on the public referendum and consult for 11 questions, 9 of which are related to security and corruption issues, one to international arbitration for public contracts and one for labor hiring by the hour – these two questions are currently prohibited under the constitut...

100 Days to Celebrate

ECUADOR · Report · 15 Mar 2024

President Daniel Noboa can celebrate his first 100 days in office with an 80% acceptance of his mandate—the highest level of popularity enjoyed by an Ecuadorian president. He moved fast on the right track to partially contain the dangerous insecurity and violence situation of last January and to...

Active legislative week with positive results

ECUADOR · In Brief · 09 Feb 2024

After several weeks of discussions, agreements, and disagreements, there is finally a decision on the tax reform proposed by President Daniel Noboa to raise the VAT tax from 13% to 15%. His original proposal was not approved by the Assembly and after several debates, the plenary voted individuall...

State of war

ECUADOR · Report · 12 Jan 2024

President Noboa sent last night the third urgent economic bill, which has one purpose only: to raise the VAT from 12% to 15%. The rationale for the decision is the need to raise financing for expenditures associated with security and for the state of war dictated last Monday in response to nation...

In Ecuadorian politics you can fry snowballs

ECUADOR · In Brief · 13 Nov 2023

The ADN of Daniel Noboa has been able to reach an agreement with Revolucion Ciudadana and Partido Social Cristiano to conform a majority of 94 legislators.The Social Christians sum 18, and ADN contributes 25, after capturing additional 11 legislators. Albeit those names have not been disclosed ye...

An unexpected second runner-up

ECUADOR · Report · 28 Aug 2023

While the presidential outcome that placed Daniel Noboa in second place in the first-round presidential election came as a surprise to virtually every Ecuadorian, the results obtained in the Assembly and its distribution were in line with our expectations. Four blocs will represent close to ...

A second electoral round with a huge surprise

ECUADOR · In Brief · 20 Aug 2023

With around 75% of votes counted at national level, it is certain that Ecuadorians will go to vote in a second round in which Luisa Gonzalez and Daniel Noboa will be seeking the presidency of the country. While the 33% vote for Gonzalez were somewhat expected and represents the hard vote for the ...

Fernando Villavicencio has been murdered

ECUADOR · In Brief · 09 Aug 2023

Fernando Villavicencio, was a presidential candidate until today at 6 pm. He was murdered with three bullets to his head perpetrated by a hit person during a political meeting that was being held at an academic institution. He was the former head of the fiscalization committee in the Assembly a...

Expected disappointment

ECUADOR · Forecast · 18 Jul 2023

An economic downtrend this year has been evidenced in falling inflation and non-oil imports in the first five months. Recently published GDP data for Q1 confirmed this trend. Although y/y growth was positive at 0.7%, it is the lowest since Q2 2021, while the quarterly performance was the worst s...

Worst Fears Confirmed

ECUADOR · In Brief · 13 Jun 2023

Official candidates will be announced by the Electoral Council next August 6th, and the electoral race will start on August 8th, including a presidential debate that will take place on August 13th. Of the eight announced presidential and vice-presidential candidates, only Daniel Noboa and Veronic...