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Insecurity and violence overshadows Lasso’s impeachment in the news
ECUADOR · Forecast · 24 Apr 2023

The unceasing news of acts of violence and even massacres, both inside jails and outside them, have displaced news of Lasso’s impeachment, which should be the most important development for Ecuadorians at this time. However, there is evidence that Ecuadorians, who have been undergoing threats fro...

Lasso's Impeachment was Approved by the Constitutional Court
ECUADOR · In Brief · 30 Mar 2023 · 1 response

Late last night, the Constitutional Court issued a partial approval for Guillermo Lasso's impeachment accepting jugdgement for bribery and rejecting the charge of concussion.  This ruling does not make the President's situation any easier.  The ball is again in the Assembly's field in this is wha...

Lasso's Situation Gets More Complicated
ECUADOR · In Brief · 27 Mar 2023

As expected, the Assembly submitted to the Constitutional Court the petition to initiate an impeachment of President Lasso.  This petition is based on the report presented by an ad-hoc legislative commission dominated by the opposition, in which Lasso was accused virtually of everything the Const...

Constitutional illiterates
ECUADOR · Report · 13 Mar 2023

An ad hoc commission formed and led mainly by legislators from the UNES and the Social Christian Party investigated a case of corruption in the electricity sector. Although the case has roots in the government of Rafael Correa, this commission decided to focus on the current presidential period, ...

Webinar replay: Ecuador's February elections - A critical political thermometer
ECUADOR · Report · 17 Feb 2023

What do the results of the Ecuador's constitutional referendum and local elections indicate about the national trends and how will they affect the macroeconomic outlook? Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar featuring Magdalena Barreiro as she discusses what the elections and...

Slide presentation - Ecuador's February elections: A critical political thermometer
ECUADOR · Report · 16 Feb 2023

Get insight into Ecuador's elections and what economic data reveals about Ecuador's trajectory with the presentation from our webinar, "Ecuador's February elections: A critical political thermometer".

Correistas are back
ECUADOR · In Brief · 06 Feb 2023 · 1 response

Elections for local authorities – city mayors and provincial dignities - held yesterday showed a strong comeback from the Correistas who won Quito, the province of Pichincha, Guayaquil and the Province of Guayas, among other smaller cities. Pavel Munoz, the new mayor of Quito, will exercise his a...

The February electoral process: a critical political thermometer
ECUADOR · Report · 20 Jan 2023

The local government elections that will take place on February 5 are far from just another electoral process. They are extremely important to assess if the Correistas have regained strength, if CONAIE and Pachakutik have extended their influence to the national level, and if the Social Christian...

Three-cushion billiards
ECUADOR · Report · 21 Dec 2022

The battle between the Executive and the Legislature continues, and we foresee no improvement in the coming months. UNES and the rebels from Pachakutik have not and will not cease in their efforts to get rid of President Lasso — or at least make his life difficult. Social Christians accompany the...

Soccer – our hope of last resort
ECUADOR · Report · 22 Nov 2022

The intentions of Correistas, Social Christians, and the rebels from Pachakutik to oust President Guillermo Lasso have not ended. They sent a recent new petition to the Electoral Council to revoke his mandate under the argument of a “failed state”, based on the recent cruel massacres that occurre...

A good couple of months
ECUADOR · Report · 24 Oct 2022

Ecuador has had good news both domestically and from abroad in the last two months. On October 14, the government and CONAIE ended successfully—albeit with differing levels of satisfaction—the negotiation tables that were established after the violent riots of last June. With the mediation of the...

Update to our September Report
ECUADOR · In Brief · 19 Sep 2022 · 2 responses

This afternoon after we released our monthly report for September, President Lasso and Minister of Finance Pablo Arosemena announced the agreement reached with China for a restructuring of the Ecuadorian debt with this country that will bring benefits in debt reduction and cash flow service. The ...

A referendum at last – but will it be groundbreaking?
ECUADOR · Report · 19 Sep 2022

After a year of hesitation, President Guillermo Lasso has decided to go for a referendum to amend the Constitution approved in 2008 regarding three general aspects: national security, democracy and the political structure, and the environment. The questions for a referendum require the approval o...

The answer lies below the line
ECUADOR · Forecast · 22 Aug 2022

Fiscal results for the General Government for H1, showing a small overall surplus of around $0.4b, are better than expected. Also, the balance of trade shows a significant surplus of $2b, deposits and credit continue to grow steadily y/y, and international reserves are maintaining high levels of ...

President Lasso’s faulty bet
ECUADOR · Report · 27 Jul 2022

Last October, President Lasso bet on the responsible management of the economy and a successful vaccination campaign as the foundation for the future course of action for his government. It was a faulty bet, and the absence of a strong political front failed to predict the perfect storm we experi...

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