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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The February electoral process: a critical political thermometer
ECUADOR · Report · 20 Jan 2023

The local government elections that will take place on February 5 are far from just another electoral process. They are extremely important to assess if the Correistas have regained strength, if CONAIE and Pachakutik have extended their influence to the national level, and if the Social Christian...

Three-cushion billiards
ECUADOR · Report · 21 Dec 2022

The battle between the Executive and the Legislature continues, and we foresee no improvement in the coming months. UNES and the rebels from Pachakutik have not and will not cease in their efforts to get rid of President Lasso — or at least make his life difficult. Social Christians accompany the...

Soccer – our hope of last resort
ECUADOR · Report · 22 Nov 2022

The intentions of Correistas, Social Christians, and the rebels from Pachakutik to oust President Guillermo Lasso have not ended. They sent a recent new petition to the Electoral Council to revoke his mandate under the argument of a “failed state”, based on the recent cruel massacres that occurre...

A good couple of months
ECUADOR · Report · 24 Oct 2022

Ecuador has had good news both domestically and from abroad in the last two months. On October 14, the government and CONAIE ended successfully—albeit with differing levels of satisfaction—the negotiation tables that were established after the violent riots of last June. With the mediation of the...

Update to our September Report
ECUADOR · In Brief · 19 Sep 2022 · 2 responses

This afternoon after we released our monthly report for September, President Lasso and Minister of Finance Pablo Arosemena announced the agreement reached with China for a restructuring of the Ecuadorian debt with this country that will bring benefits in debt reduction and cash flow service. The ...

A referendum at last – but will it be groundbreaking?
ECUADOR · Report · 19 Sep 2022

After a year of hesitation, President Guillermo Lasso has decided to go for a referendum to amend the Constitution approved in 2008 regarding three general aspects: national security, democracy and the political structure, and the environment. The questions for a referendum require the approval o...

The answer lies below the line
ECUADOR · Forecast · 22 Aug 2022

Fiscal results for the General Government for H1, showing a small overall surplus of around $0.4b, are better than expected. Also, the balance of trade shows a significant surplus of $2b, deposits and credit continue to grow steadily y/y, and international reserves are maintaining high levels of ...

President Lasso’s faulty bet
ECUADOR · Report · 27 Jul 2022

Last October, President Lasso bet on the responsible management of the economy and a successful vaccination campaign as the foundation for the future course of action for his government. It was a faulty bet, and the absence of a strong political front failed to predict the perfect storm we experi...

Webinar Replay: Ecuador - Dim light at the end of the tunnel
ECUADOR · Report · 08 Jul 2022

Despite protests, President Lasso has survived his impeachment vote. What is ahead for Ecuador? Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar featuring Magdalena Barreiro discussing the ramifications of the crisis on Ecuador's outlook.

Democracy in agony
ECUADOR · In Brief · 24 Jun 2022

After 12 days of riots and violence under the makeup of an indigenous protest over the cost of living and other economic and security problems in Ecuador, the suspected truth emerges. UNES, led by former President Correa, has initiated the petition for cross death and the destitution of President...

Is Cross Death rapidly approaching?
ECUADOR · In Brief · 18 Jun 2022

Facing the threat of Leonidas Iza, Head of Conaie, to march to Quito and the increasing violence of the protests, last night, President Lasso issued a decree to install the state of exception in three provinces, Pichincha, Imbabura and Cotopaxi. At the same time, he announced economic measures th...

A reminder from Leonidas Iza and Conaie
ECUADOR · Report · 16 Jun 2022 · 1 response

Those who thought that Leonidas Iza and the threat from CONAIE to political stability were under control were proven wrong this week by the strong and extended protests that – albeit without the severity of the 2019 riots – have already produced losses to the productive sector, mainly the flower ...

An opportunity for President Lasso to reinvent himself
ECUADOR · Report · 17 May 2022

The various unsuccessful attempts to reach agreements with the Assembly are not President Lasso's only headaches. Several massacres in the jail system that have caused the deaths of over 350 inmates since 2021, and violence and insecurity on the streets – especially in Guayaquil, which now has th...

A cornered government
ECUADOR · Forecast · 22 Apr 2022

The good news of the higher-than-expected GDP growth of 4.2% y/y, which clearly speaks of a robust (albeit jobless) economic recovery in 2021, came amidst the dense political turmoil caused by dubious legislative processes, another massacre in the jail system, the discovery of a Ponzi scheme amon...

Lower popularity does not make a hard job any easier
ECUADOR · Report · 22 Mar 2022

It seems like a long time ago that President Lasso enjoyed his highest levels of popularity, when over 70% of Ecuadorians approved of his performance, back in August 2021. By the end of January, his popularity had fallen below 40%. In this context Lasso is facing strong opposition outside and ins...

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