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Follow up to Better Perspectives for Guillermo Lasso
ECUADOR · In Brief · 31 Mar 2021

In the referenced brief, I included two charts that apparently lost their format. I am including the charts here with my apologies.

Better Perspectives for Guillermo Lasso
ECUADOR · In Brief · 31 Mar 2021 · 1 response

A summary of different polls carried out during the past week and weekend shows that political trends for Andres Arauz and Guillermo Lasso changed after the debate that took place on March 21st.Around 63% of citizens from Quito and Guayaquil watched the entire debate from which 34% thinks Lasso w...

A successful first step for the bill to defend dollarization
ECUADOR · In Brief · 29 Mar 2021 · 1 response

After three failed attempts, the Administrative Committee of the National Assembly accepted the bill and passed it to the Economic Commission, from where, if approved in this second stage, it will pass to the plenary session.The new version of the law replaces one Board of Directors with two Boar...

Is the Central Bank strong enough for Arauz?
ECUADOR · Report · 16 Mar 2021

The legal actions conducted by Yaku Perez against the electoral results and the National Electoral Council already have a ruling from the Electoral Court, but are subject to appeal from Perez. Thus, the ruling has not been executed yet. In the unlikely event that Perez were to win the appeal, it ...

A Second Denial to Debate the Bill in Favor of Dollarization
ECUADOR · In Brief · 02 Mar 2021

By the end of last year considering general comments from legislators on the subject bill, we had hopes for its approval. However, so far, the Administrative Council from the Assembly has denied twice the possibility to debate the bill in the plenary session. Albeit Ministry of Finance Mauricio P...

High-heat politics burn hopes for agreement
ECUADOR · Forecast · 17 Feb 2021

Those Ecuadorians who do not want a return by the Correistas viewed with hope the meeting held last Friday, February 12, between Guillermo Lasso and Yaku Perez, who have fought vote by vote for their right to contest the second round. A difference of fewer than 34,000 votes in favor of Lasso has ...

Troubled Waters Ahead
ECUADOR · In Brief · 10 Feb 2021

When 99.67% of the compiled votes have been counted, the difference between Guillermo Lasso from CREO (19.59%) and Yaku Perez (19.70%) has shrunk around 0.2% since yesterday. There are still 3.53% of compiled votes being revised and counted (close to 400,000 individual votes pending of being veri...

An Unexpected Second Electoral Round
ECUADOR · In Brief · 08 Feb 2021 · 1 response

When 97.5% of the votes have been counted, Andres Arauz maintains an undisputable first place on Sunday's presidential elections with close to 32% of the votes. On the other hand, the second place is still disputed between Yaku Perez (19.8%) and Guillermo Lasso (19.6%). This difference has been f...

High Uncertainty Before the Elections
ECUADOR · In Brief · 02 Feb 2021

Elections for the first round of the Ecuadorian presidential elections will take place next Sunday, February 7th. Information from polls were available until January 28th, and the uncertainty remains due to diverse results from different pollsters. There are 11 pollsters approved by the National ...

Bogus presidential debates
ECUADOR · Report · 20 Jan 2021

After three debates, our opinion of the political and economic future of Ecuador depending on whom is elected has not changed. And we are sure that the confusion of many was not dissipated by the debates, either. We still consider Guillermo Lasso as the best option, and Andres Arauz as the worst....

One problem solved, on to the next
ECUADOR · In Brief · 22 Dec 2020

As anticipated, the Board of Directors of the IMF approved the second disbursement for Ecuador for $2.0b. This disbursement will be used mainly to catch up with arrears with local governments, public servants, and private sector suppliers, as announced by Minister Mauricio Pozo.On the other hand,...

IMF − the star of Year 2020
ECUADOR · Report · 15 Dec 2020

Official information for the deficits of the Central Government and the Non-Financial Public Sector shows that the Republic has complied with the quantitative goals set by the IMF program for 2020. In fact, the cumulative change in the deficit between January-June and January-September for the Ce...

Preliminary Good News from the IMF
ECUADOR · In Brief · 23 Nov 2020

The statement published by the technical team from the IMF provides good news regarding the latest review of the necessary requirements to access to the upcoming second disbursement of $2.0b under the program. The staff considers those requirements have been met, and albeit this assessment has to...

Political risks beat fiscal threats
ECUADOR · Report · 18 Nov 2020

We maintain our view that the political risks coming from the presidential election and the composition of the National Assembly will dominate next year’s performance because they will determine the fate of fiscal and domestic economic developments. The political arena is not fully decided so ...

A brighter economic outlook amid high political risk
ECUADOR · Forecast · 20 Oct 2020

This year we have assumed the inevitable. GDP will fall between 10% -11% by the end of the year, as it has already fallen 9.97% q/q and 12.4% y/y in Q2 2020. Household consumption fell 11.9% y/y and government consumption was also down, by 10.5% y/y, in Q2. Exports, which until Q1 contributed pos...

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