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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Is high popularity a buffer against social unrest?
ECUADOR · Report · 19 Aug 2021

Approximately 80% of Ecuadorians approve of President Lasso’s government in the first 90 days of his administration, and his popularity increased slightly between June and August 6, from 71.4% to 73.5%, according to CEDATOS. Also, his credibility is up from 61.7% to 63.2% in this period. But whil...

The correct path to recovery
ECUADOR · Forecast · 19 Jul 2021 · 1 response

The first 150 days of President Lasso’s administration have been characterized by economic openness with sensible protection of Ecuadorian producers; transparency, efficiency, and investment attraction for the oil sector; recovery and improvement of domestic productivity; hard work to continue wi...

A clearer spot in the region
ECUADOR · Report · 14 Jun 2021

After two weeks in office, Guillermo Lasso registered the highest rate of approval since 1979. At 71.2% he was above Rafael Correa, who had 68% in his best days. In addition, two legislators from the Social Christian Party joined the official forces, which currently represent the second largest g...

Legislative Commissions Finally Conformed
ECUADOR · In Brief · 20 May 2021

After two days of lack of consensus, the new majority formed by Creo-Independents, Pachakutik and Izquierda Democratica finally achieved the exact 70 necessary votes to conform the 15 specialized legislative commissions. However, presidents of these commissions that have nine members, were not ap...

Cry, Correa, cry
ECUADOR · Report · 18 May 2021

“Llori Correa Llori” was the message that flooded social media after Guadalupe Llori – whose last name resembles “llora” or "cry" – was elected president of the National Assembly. Llori, a member of the Pachakutik party, was persecuted and incarcerated by Correa during his presidency. Thus, she r...

Claim of Unconstitutionality of New Education Bill
ECUADOR · In Brief · 12 May 2021

The Constitutional Court received yesterday a claim of unconstitutionality of the new education bill. The claim brilliantly explains the legal violations this bill exhibits and also provides a complete and fair explanation of its negative fiscal and economic implications. This claim was submitted...

New Positive Steps Forward
ECUADOR · In Brief · 26 Apr 2021 · 1 response

The bill in favor of dollarization was finally approved in first and second debates in the Assembly. Legislators from CREO, Social Christian Party, Alianza Pais and other from independent political blocks were in favor, and --as expected --correistas voted against. With this achievement, we expec...

A burst of fresh air
ECUADOR · Forecast · 20 Apr 2021 · 1 response

The victory of Guillermo Lasso in the second electoral round for president brought a burst of fresh air not only for the 52% of the population who voted for him, but also for international markets, which reacted positively to the news. As a result, country risk fell a historical 345 points or 30%...

Encouraging second round results
ECUADOR · In Brief · 11 Apr 2021

When 93.46% of votes have been counted --from which just 4% seem to have problems, Guillermo Lasso leads the election with 52.72% of votes while Andres Arauz has 47.28%. Lasso wins in all Andean and Amazon Provinces (except Sucumbios), while Arauz dominates in the coastal region (except Galapagos...

Follow up to Better Perspectives for Guillermo Lasso
ECUADOR · In Brief · 31 Mar 2021

In the referenced brief, I included two charts that apparently lost their format. I am including the charts here with my apologies.

Better Perspectives for Guillermo Lasso
ECUADOR · In Brief · 31 Mar 2021 · 1 response

A summary of different polls carried out during the past week and weekend shows that political trends for Andres Arauz and Guillermo Lasso changed after the debate that took place on March 21st.Around 63% of citizens from Quito and Guayaquil watched the entire debate from which 34% thinks Lasso w...

A successful first step for the bill to defend dollarization
ECUADOR · In Brief · 29 Mar 2021 · 1 response

After three failed attempts, the Administrative Committee of the National Assembly accepted the bill and passed it to the Economic Commission, from where, if approved in this second stage, it will pass to the plenary session.The new version of the law replaces one Board of Directors with two Boar...

Is the Central Bank strong enough for Arauz?
ECUADOR · Report · 16 Mar 2021

The legal actions conducted by Yaku Perez against the electoral results and the National Electoral Council already have a ruling from the Electoral Court, but are subject to appeal from Perez. Thus, the ruling has not been executed yet. In the unlikely event that Perez were to win the appeal, it ...

A Second Denial to Debate the Bill in Favor of Dollarization
ECUADOR · In Brief · 02 Mar 2021

By the end of last year considering general comments from legislators on the subject bill, we had hopes for its approval. However, so far, the Administrative Council from the Assembly has denied twice the possibility to debate the bill in the plenary session. Albeit Ministry of Finance Mauricio P...

High-heat politics burn hopes for agreement
ECUADOR · Forecast · 17 Feb 2021

Those Ecuadorians who do not want a return by the Correistas viewed with hope the meeting held last Friday, February 12, between Guillermo Lasso and Yaku Perez, who have fought vote by vote for their right to contest the second round. A difference of fewer than 34,000 votes in favor of Lasso has ...

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