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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The government submits a new tax reform
ECUADOR · In Brief · 20 Nov 2019

Minister Martinez will be submitting today a new tax reform much leaner than the failed bill of last week. The new bill needs to have different proposals to be considered as new piece of legislation and be treated as urgent and be in effect next year. This reform if approved will help the governm...

Indigenous groups stronger, Moreno weaker
ECUADOR · Forecast · 18 Nov 2019 · 1 response

Despite a large national consensus regarding the complicity of the indigenous groups in the violent riots of last October, there is no doubt that they emerged stronger from the protests while Moreno and the government are now weaker than before. Democracy, if we believe is there one in Ecuador, e...

Government Capitulates and Eliminates Decree 883
ECUADOR · In Brief · 13 Oct 2019

After 12 days of violent confrontations, riots and several casualties, president Moreno held a negotiation meeting with CONAIE (Confederation of Indian Nationalities) in order to seek a solution to --what was already evident --an almost insoluble problem. The meeting counted with the mediation of...

Severe and Dangerous Protests after the Presidential Decision to Eliminate Subsidies
ECUADOR · In Brief · 08 Oct 2019 · 1 response

The last economic measures taken by President Moreno have been the root of violent protests in Ecuador. Albeit we expected social unrest, the level of violence we are witnessing on the streets and highways has no precedence, at least in the last decades. Social groups including the transportation...

Moreno’s economic knock out
ECUADOR · Report · 05 Oct 2019

Moreno took many by surprise announcing an elimination of fuel subsidies instead of the expected VAT increase requested by the IMF to comply with a 1.5% of GDP increase in revenues for next year.This measure needs no approval from the assembly and would render results starting this month if the g...

In search of funds
ECUADOR · In Brief · 24 Sep 2019

Minister Martinez announced two new international issues with maturities of 5 and 10 years (March 2025 and March 2030), respectively to complete financing for 2019. Our previous estimate for international financing was around $1.0 to $1.2 billion, but if two issues are being considered, then $1.5...

The clock is ticking
ECUADOR · Report · 17 Sep 2019 · 1 response

Low inflation rates of 0.14% (cumulative) and 0.33% (y/y), together with lower-than-expected tax collections as of September, and a large contraction in non-oil import growth, which fell from 16.6% to 2.2% as of July, speak of economic stagnation. The consumer confidence index also fell, to 36.2 ...

Moreno's hardships in the way of the IMF Agreement?
ECUADOR · Report · 16 Aug 2019

President Moreno has stated he is not seeking re-election. However, it seems he wants to finish his office term as a popular president, or at least not be forced out of office. He recently had to face the protests of thousands of teachers who retired under the promise of former President Corre...

A kind IMF
ECUADOR · Forecast · 12 Jul 2019

GDP grew 0.6% y/y in Q1 2019, but the economic contraction is evident because q/q it fell 1% in this period. In fact, only exports contributed positively to GDP growth as they rose 3.9% q/q and 3.5% y/y. Private and government consumption, and investment showed negative q/q changes of 1.4%, 4.6% ...

Successful Outcome for Liability Management
ECUADOR · In Brief · 17 Jun 2019

The Ministry of Finance confirmed that the liability management operation that took place last week through which Ecuador issued $1125 million in bonds maturing in 2029 with a coupon of 10.75% and a yield of 9.059%, received a positive response from bondholders of sovereign bonds maturing in 2020...

Not a minute to lose
ECUADOR · Report · 14 Jun 2019

The IMF mission assessing Ecuador’s compliance with the goals for Q1 set up under the agreement visited the country in the past few weeks. The official report has not been published yet, but apparently there is no reason to believe that the Republic will not receive the attached disbursements bec...

To raise or not to raise the VAT?
ECUADOR · Report · 16 May 2019

Against all odds, Alianza Pais captured the presidency of the National Assembly with 78 votes – 40 from Alianza Pais, 18 from CREO and the remaining from Integracion Nacional in exchange for two vice-presidencies and at least two commissions that are under negotiation as of this writing. Cesar...

Moreno under attack
ECUADOR · Report · 25 Apr 2019

The Social Christian Party came out as the absolute winner of the recent local government elections, while the official party, Alianza Pais (AP), suffered a shameful defeat. This defeat was on President Moreno´s head, according to party members, as they felt like “political orphans” due to the la...

Correa is not dead
ECUADOR · Forecast · 25 Mar 2019

Ecuador finally signed an Extended Fund Facility agreement with the IMF, which will help the country return to a more sustainable economic model over the next three years. The IMF will provide $4.2 million of gradual financing during the life of the agreement, and other multilateral organizations...

Agreement Number 19
ECUADOR · Report · 21 Feb 2019 · 1 response

After much hesitation, the government reached an extended fund facility for $4.2 billion with the IMF, which according to President Moreno´s statement, will open the door to $6.0 billion from the World Bank, the IDB, CAF, the European Investment Bank, FLAR and the French Development Agency. This ...

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