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​ First meeting of RBI's MPC
INDIA · In Brief · 02 Oct 2016

A new arrangement The first meeting of the newly constituted Monetary Policy Committee of the Reserve Bank of India will take place on October 3 and 4. The decision of the MPC will be final and the repo, rate will be set as decided by the committee. This is a break from past practice where the RB...

Urjit Patel appointed RBI Governor
INDIA · In Brief · 20 Aug 2016

Deputy Governor Urjit Patel has been appointed the new Governor of the Reserve Bank of India. He was among the front-runners for the post. He is a macroeconomist by training, has worked in India for many years, has been RBI Deputy Governor Monetary Policy, and was part of the team that worked on ...

From confusion to de jure inflation targeting
INDIA · Report · 11 Aug 2016

For many decades, the RBI has claimed it pursues multiple objectives based on looking at multiple indicators and using multiple instruments. Critics argued that this was a fancy phrase to describe the lack of a monetary policy framework. A series of expert committee reports, starting with the Per...

The Good News
INDIA · Report · 08 Aug 2016

The 122nd Amendment to the Constitution, which is essential to the GST (Goods and Services Tax), was approved in the Upper House (where the BJP does not have a majority). This is an important milestone in terms of politics. When the BJP was in opposition, it ran a scorched earth policy, blocki...

Macroeconomic headwinds associated with the banking crisis
INDIA · Report · 13 Jul 2016

The official position of the government is that the banking crisis is being contained. From 2013 onwards, bank credit growth has been stable at roughly 4% in real terms. While this is low by historical standards, it does not suggest a crisis. While overall bank credit has been growing at 4% in...

The cabinet reshuffle
INDIA · In Brief · 07 Jul 2016

Summary The BJP administration has had negligible changes of the cabinet in its first two years. A cabinet reshuffle, announced on Tuesday, reflects the difficulties faced by the administration in its two years. The reshuffle speaks well for the clarity and clout of the prime minister. Changes at...

Consequences of Raghuram Rajan's departure
INDIA · Report · 19 Jun 2016

Rajan's departure has been the subject of furious attention in the Indian tabloid press and on facebook/twitter. Millions of words will be written about this. The adverse impact of a Brexit upon India will be attributed as the adverse impact of Rajan's departure. We believe his departure does not...

Business cycle conditions
INDIA · Report · 13 Jun 2016

The controversy about Indian GDP data has become acrimonious, as it has become linked up with the attempts of the administration to put its best foot forward at the Second Anniversary. The first data for the Jan-March 2016 quarter is now in hand. Conditions in the economy remain difficult. Despit...

RBI will try to curb rupee volatility
INDIA · In Brief · 08 Jun 2016

As expected, RBI did not cut the policy rate in its credit policy announcement on Tuesday. However, again, as we had expected, the RBI Governor did say that the stance of monetary policy will remain accommodative and he is looking for room to ease. Yet, it given the hawkish stance on inflationary...

Will slower demand and a good monsoon give us a rate cut?
INDIA · In Brief · 06 Jun 2016

The credit policy announcement on Tuesday, June 7, 2016 comes at a time when CPI data shows a rate of 5.4 percent for April, and GDP growth of 7.9 percent for the Jan-Mar quarter. This has led most commentators to expect no change in the policy rate in the upcoming announcement.But an argument fo...

Bankruptcy reforms
INDIA · Report · 09 May 2016

An orderly process for handling defaults on debt obligations, by individuals or by firms, is lacking in India. The new Companies Act, 2013, did not solve the problem. The RBI has come up with a few bank-centric programs such as the CDR or SDR, and they do not solve the problem. This is a major im...

A hint of a recovery in investment?
INDIA · Report · 04 Apr 2016

Micro data about investment is reliable, and is released immediately after the end of a quarter. Hence, on 4 April we are able to observe the Jan-Feb-Mar 2016 quarter. This is the first macro data release for the Jan-Feb-Mar 2016 quarter. While this is not a robust recovery, it is possibly the be...

Indian budget announcement
INDIA · Report · 29 Feb 2016

Three important problems framed yesterday's budget speech. The first was the deepening recession. The second was the banking crisis. The third was the political difficulties that have increasingly beset the BJP. The outcome we got yesterday perhaps reflect a mix of these compulsions. While the...

The problems in banking
INDIA · Report · 23 Feb 2016

A very approximate calculation suggests that perhaps Rs.5.5 trillion are required to bring Indian banking back to the state of health found in February 2008. This is considerably larger than the existing plan at the Ministry of Finance, to infuse Rs.0.7 trillion into public sector banks. We have ...

Business cycle conditions
INDIA · Report · 18 Feb 2016

The recession that began in 2012 has not ended. The best measures of business cycle conditions are constructed using data for non-financial non-oil listed firms, and by several measures, these indicate softness in the economy. Furthermore, balance sheet problems are reflected in the mismatch betw...

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