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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Business cycle conditions
INDIA · Report · 14 Dec 2015

Conditions in the economy remain difficult. The net sales growth of firms, expressed in real terms, is quite slow. The credit stress of firms is worsening, as interest payments are growing faster than operating profit. We are increasingly morphing from a conventional recession into a balance shee...

What is at Stake in the Bihar Elections
INDIA · Report · 05 Nov 2015

The state of Bihar has a population of 100 million, and is important in and of itself. However, the elections in Bihar have come to represent something more. If the BJP wins, this will reinforce the power of the prime minister, it will reaffirm the usefulness of religious polarization as an el...

Has investment revived?
INDIA · Report · 05 Oct 2015

Micro data about investment is reliable and is released immediately after the end of a quarter. Hence, on October 5 we are able to observe the Jul-Sep 2015 quarter. This is the first macro data release for the Jul-Sep 2015 quarter. The attempts by the government at solving the institutional bo...

Business cycle conditions
INDIA · Report · 25 Sep 2015

While many people expected conditions to change under the new government, the business cycle downturn that began in Q1 2012 has not ended. The engine of earnings growth in large firms has not revived. There are concerns about credit stress in large firms, with growing interest payments and declin...

Monetary policy – developments on tactics and strategy
INDIA · Report · 21 Aug 2015

Executive Summary A dramatic decline in inflation took place, from late 2013 onwards. Headline inflation is now at the inflation target. From 2013 onwards, monetary policy did not see this coming. This feeds into an interesting current debate about shifting the power to set rates from the Governo...

Part III: Has the recession ended? Equity market valuation
INDIA · Report · 01 Jul 2015

Executive Summary Equity market valuation is all about two things: projected earnings growth and the discount rate required by the market. In the past, Indian equities have obtained high valuations on the strength of the high growth rate of earnings. For a long time, there has been a nice set of ...

Part II: Has the recession ended? Balance sheet problems of banks and borrowers
INDIA · Report · 30 Jun 2015

Executive Summary While the official GDP numbers are showing an optimistic picture, trusted firm databases suggest that the recession which began in Q1 2012 has not ended. In the second part of our discussion of the recent GDP figures and business cycle conditions, we look at the current balance ...

What Can We Learn From the Currency Defense of 2013
INDIA · Report · 23 Jun 2015

Executive Summary In 2013, at the time of Ben Bernanke’s “Taper Talk”, India mounted a currency defense to combat currency depreciation. It is useful to look back at this episode, in order to obtain insights into the workings of a currency defense. The authorities appeared to throw everything the...

Part I: Has the recession which began in 2012 ended?
INDIA · Report · 22 Jun 2015

Executive Summary Changes in GDP estimation methodology have taken place, and the new GDP data shows a very rosy picture. However, we believe that the recession which began in Q1 2012 has not yet ended. The methodological documents associated with the new GDP data show many improvements in method...

Big Facts about the US Macroeconomic Environment and Implications for India
INDIA · Report · 26 May 2015

Using very long time series in the US, three important facts are: (a) an inflation target of 2%, which is successfully delivered by the US Fed; (b) bond returns of 2.7% and (c) equity premium of 3 percentage points.In the US, there is a fair understanding about these three numbers and confidence ...

The Pre-Crisis Credit Boom
INDIA · Report · 11 May 2015

In Y. V. Reddy's period as governor (6/Sep/2003 to 5/Sep/2008), there was vigorous pursuit of exchange rate policy. In an attempt to defend the dollar, RBI purchased a lot of foreign assets and paid for this using rupees. These rupees distorted domestic monetary policy. At a time of the biggest e...

Important follow-up to yesterday’s report, “Financial Reform Rollbacks”
INDIA · In Brief · 01 May 2015

I would like to rectify some of the analysis presented in yesterday’s report entitled “Financial Reform Rollbacks”. In my report yesterday I said: One key area of failure was tax policy and tax administration. As these reports have emphasized, the budget did not have a plan for how to fix the fai...

Financial Reform Rollbacks
INDIA · Report · 30 Apr 2015

Executive Summary The BJP has rolled back the proposal of applying MAT on foreign investors. Until the fine print is read, we cannot be sure about what the tax authorities have done. And, the increase in the withholding tax from 5% to 18% stands. On financial reform, three issues have held: infla...

Developments in Fiscal, Financial and Monetary Institutions
INDIA · Report · 13 Mar 2015

Executive Summary There is an important three-pronged move in institution building, which comprises: (a) formal inflation targeting at RBI; (b) unburdening RBI of the conflict of interest of debt management for the government; and (c) giving RBI a bond market through which monetary policy would b...

Budget Speech Analysis
INDIA · Report · 02 Mar 2015

Executive Summary This Special Report was originally issued on March 1, 2015 as a post on GSP Direct, the GlobalSource Partners interactive webtool providing clients an initial response to breaking news and developments. The BJP, armed with a clear majority in the Lok Sabha and the desire to brea...

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