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RBI Statement Failed to Reduce Uncertainty
INDIA · Report · 20 Sep 2013

Today RBI said they will: reduce the marginal standing facility (MSF) rate by 75 basis points from 10.25 per cent to 9.5 per cent with immediate effect;reduce the minimum daily maintenance of the cash reserve ratio (CRR) from 99 per cent of the requirement to 95 per cent effective from the fortni...

RBI Announcement on 20th is Unusually Important
INDIA · In Brief · 18 Sep 2013

It will be the first policy statement by Raghuram Rajan, the new RBI Governor. The date was deftly chosen to give him a little more time, and to take place after the FOMC announcement.RBI monetary policy statements are like nothing you see with central banks elsewhere in the world. They are wordy...

Emergence of Rupee Denominated Bonds as a Globally Investable Asset Class
INDIA · Report · 13 Sep 2013

Executive SummaryInvestment into rupee denominated debt in India has faced a cumbersome auction mechanism, in which a foreign investor must first buy the right to buy government bonds. This auction mechanism was eliminated on September 13 for government bonds. It had been eliminated for corporate...

Policy Environment Shifting For The Better
INDIA · Report · 04 Sep 2013

In recent months, a series of special reports have sketched the failures of economic policy formulation including at the Ministry of Finance and RBI. These failures have been particularly disappointing given that when P. Chidambaram returned to MoF, a sharp increase in competence was expected. Wi...

Extreme Measures in Defense of the Rupee
INDIA · Report · 15 Aug 2013

Executive Summary The pain associated with the defense of the rupee is rising rapidly. Fundamental questions about trend GDP growth are now being raised by the actions of the government, which have rolled back economic reforms in key areas. To the extent that the microeconomic foundations of Indi...

An Unnecessary Mess
INDIA · Report · 31 Jul 2013

Executive Summary The government’s defense of the rupee is turning a difficult situation into a mess. This damages the outlook for the rupee, for the Nifty and for the economy. In addition, an unregulated commodity spot exchange (“NSEL”) has suspended trading and promises delayed payments on outs...

Growth Outlook Bleak
INDIA · Forecast · 29 Jul 2013

Executive SummaryProduction continues to slow: GDP grew at 4.8% y/y in Q4 (Jan-Mar) of 2012-2013, and non-agricultural GDP grew 5.3%. Industrial production has likewise slipped, contracting 1.6% y/y in May. A task force has been set up to track stalled projects in key power, coal, mines and road ...

The Rupee: Trends and Predictions
INDIA · Report · 17 Jul 2013

Executive Summary Foreign institutional investors withdrew $7.17 billion from Indian markets in June. While this was influenced by Fed chairman Ben Bernanke’s statements on May 21 and 22, the major reasons for their exit appear to lie elsewhere. India needs to receive about Rs.20 billion daily in...

Strategy For Financial Reform Is Becoming Visible
INDIA · Report · 11 Jun 2013

Executive SummaryFor the last decade, financial reforms in India have floundered. The game plan that now seems to be clearly visible comprises of a long term strategy and a two-pronged short term strategy. The long-term strategy is to enact some version of the draft Indian Financial Code, a new l...

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