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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Expect Continuity, Not Change
INDIA · Report · 26 Mar 2014

Executive Summary The media has anointed the BJP as a frontrunner in the spring elections, amid palpable disappointment with the ruling UPA, due to anemic growth, high inflation, and corruption. The UPA neglected all three of these issues in favor of focusing on subsidies. The election will serve...

Recovery by Yearend?
INDIA · Report · 25 Mar 2014

Executive Summary Our report of December 2, 2013 projected export buoyancy and a fall in companies’ interest rate payments, and said this would lead to better performance for large firms in 2013. Q4 data bears out all three predictions -- though the improvements were less robust than we expected....

Growth Got Better And Inflation Decelerated
INDIA · Report · 24 Mar 2014

Executive Summary The report of 2 December 2013 had suggested that in Q4 2013 there would be export buoyancy, reduced interest payments by firms, and hence improved performance of large firms. All three predictions have been borne out by the Q4 data. There is some easing of tradeables inflation, ...

A Late-Year Growth Rebound?
INDIA · Report · 18 Feb 2014

Executive SummaryCPI inflation is slowing, as both the shock INR depreciation delivered to tradeables inflation in mid-2013, and food inflation, are subsiding. This is delivering an optimistic inflation picture, with CPI inflation falling into the single digits for the first time this year.The Re...

Outlook for 2014
INDIA · Report · 17 Feb 2014

There was a shock to tradeables inflation owing to the INR depreciation in mid-2013, which has subsided. In recent months, food inflation has also subsided. Put together, this is starting to yield some gains in CPI inflation. RBI is trying to establish an inflation targeting monetary policy frame...

Fundamental Change in Financial Regulation
INDIA · In Brief · 10 Jan 2014

The Indian Financial Code: A bridge too far? Transformative change of the Indian State takes place through big projects. We seem to combine stasis in government, with ground-up rethinking in big projects. Six big projects are now in the fray: Goods and Services Tax (GST) Direct Tax Code (DTC) Ind...

Gold Smuggling and the Decline in the CAD
INDIA · In Brief · 06 Dec 2013

When India brought back restrictions against legal gold imports earlier this year, there was a surge of capital and labour devoted to criminal organisations. The decline of official gold imports, from $16.5B in the June quarter to $3.5B in the September quarter, most likely went with a surge in b...

Glimmers of Recovery
INDIA · Forecast · 02 Dec 2013

Executive SummaryWe see signs of recovery after the downturn that started in 2010. Q3 data signaled improvements in output, investment and business confidence. Conditions may improve further in Q4, as the damage to Q3 growth caused by defense of the rupee recedes, and as the expansionary impact o...

Quarterly Report, October 2013
INDIA · Forecast · 27 Nov 2013

Output Growth Slips Further Figure: GDP growth Source: National Accounts Statistics and authors’ calculations GDP growth in India slowed to 4.4% in April-June 2013. The slowdown is more pronounced if we exclude agriculture and government expenditure. GDP excluding agriculture and government captu...

The Cleaning of Downturns
INDIA · In Brief · 09 Oct 2013

There is universal gloom in India today about economic conditions. This perspective is flawed in two ways.First, every market economy experiences business cycle fluctuations. Trend growth is roughly 7%. When we get 10% growth in an expansion, we should not conclude that trend growth has gone up t...

Normalisation of Monetary Policy Continuing
INDIA · In Brief · 07 Oct 2013

RBI had embarked on a messy interest rate defence of the rupee where the 91-day rate moved up by as much as 400 bps. After Raghuram Rajan took charge as Governor, some small steps were taken in normalisation.Today, the next step in normalisation took place. RBI cut the marginal standing facility ...

Interpreting the Monetary Policy Announcement
INDIA · Report · 23 Sep 2013

In his maiden monetary policy announcement RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan tried to unveil a complicated mix of easing and tightening. He raised the policy “repo” rate to bring down inflationary expectations, while at the same time reducing the MSF rate, the effective rate at which banks borrow, whic...

RBI Statement Failed to Reduce Uncertainty
INDIA · Report · 20 Sep 2013

Today RBI said they will: reduce the marginal standing facility (MSF) rate by 75 basis points from 10.25 per cent to 9.5 per cent with immediate effect;reduce the minimum daily maintenance of the cash reserve ratio (CRR) from 99 per cent of the requirement to 95 per cent effective from the fortni...

RBI Announcement on 20th is Unusually Important
INDIA · In Brief · 18 Sep 2013

It will be the first policy statement by Raghuram Rajan, the new RBI Governor. The date was deftly chosen to give him a little more time, and to take place after the FOMC announcement.RBI monetary policy statements are like nothing you see with central banks elsewhere in the world. They are wordy...

Emergence of Rupee Denominated Bonds as a Globally Investable Asset Class
INDIA · Report · 13 Sep 2013

Executive SummaryInvestment into rupee denominated debt in India has faced a cumbersome auction mechanism, in which a foreign investor must first buy the right to buy government bonds. This auction mechanism was eliminated on September 13 for government bonds. It had been eliminated for corporate...

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