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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Outlook on the recovery
INDIA · Report · 12 Jul 2022

The most interesting question in Indian economics concerns the strong performance of listed companies in late 2021 and early 2022: will this be maintained and will it carry forward? Or will it peter out? Strong firm performance has been assisted so far by high export growth, but there are some...

Developments in monetary policy
INDIA · Report · 07 Jul 2022

The inflation situation in India is in violation of the inflation target (which demands 4% inflation, and a band between 2 and 6 per cent), but the deviations are relatively modest when compared with those seen in DMs. The RBI is facing difficulties achieving its three objectives – exchange rate ...

Monetary policy strategy in a time of DM tightening
INDIA · Report · 16 Jun 2022

The RBI is juggling three objectives: a desired level of the exchange rate, cheap financing for the fiscal deficit, and inflation. In recent months, there have been capital outflows and the sale of reserves as part of currency policy. DM tightening will exacerbate these pressures. There may be ca...

Disputed taxes and their implications for the measured fiscal situation
INDIA · Report · 13 Jun 2022

In this report, we show a weakness of conventional fiscal data. Many times, it appears that taxes are paid by a private person, but simultaneously litigated. The stock of this litigation has risen to economically significant values. Alongside this, there is evidence that the win rate for the gove...

Webinar Replay: Is India on track for a robust recovery?
INDIA · Report · 20 May 2022

Get insight into India's macro outlook for 2022 and the potential for an economic recovery. Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar featuring economist Dr. Ajay Shah discussing India's recovery and the state of the Indian economy.

A surprise rate hike
INDIA · Report · 06 May 2022

On May 4, the RBI came out with a surprise 40-bp rate hike. There are three puzzles here: Why a surprise action, why 40 bps, and why May 4? What is the monetary policy strategy that plausibly generated this? It is possible to reconstruct the logic for this from the viewpoint of exchange rate obj...

Hint of a recovery of private investment
INDIA · Report · 22 Apr 2022

Private investment is unusually important in shaping macroeconomic conditions in India. From 2011/2012 onward, a critical measure of private investment – the stock of investment projects at hand, expressed in real terms – has been declining. For the first time, the recent data suggests that this ...

The state of the recovery: firms faring better than households
INDIA · Report · 11 Apr 2022

There is a divergence in the picture of the economy as seen in data for large firms vs. the data for households. The large firms are faring well. For the first time since 2013, expansion of net sales and operating profit is seen, in real terms, in the aggregate values for non-financial non-oi...

De-facto change in monetary policy stance
INDIA · In Brief · 08 Apr 2022

The monetary policy statement though retained the accommodative stance but the wording was changed to: ...."remain accommodative while focusing on withdrawal of accommodation to ensure that inflation remains within the target going forward, while supporting growth." There is a possibility that th...

RBI's Monetary Policy Committee trims growth forecast and raises inflation projection
INDIA · Report · 08 Apr 2022

The first bi-monthly meeting of the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) concluded today. In contrast to the previous monetary policy announcement, the focus this time has been on managing inflation and withdrawing the excess liquidity through formal instruments. The RBI acknowledged that the di...

Challenges for the Indian Central Bank: Trade-off between managing inflation and debt of the government
INDIA · In Brief · 05 Apr 2022

The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will meet after two days to decide on the policy rate. While inflation has been above the RBI's upper threshold of 6 percent for two consecutive months, RBI has maintained status quo on rates and kept an accommodative stance to sup...

Fiscal aspects of the pension reform
INDIA · Report · 04 Apr 2022

Generous pension promises were made to civil servants in previous decades. The fiscal consequences of these promises started growing with rising longevity. In 2003, it was estimated that the implicit pension debt, on account of all government workers or pensioners (summing across all government o...

India's current account deficit records a sharp surge
INDIA · In Brief · 01 Apr 2022

India's current account deficit widened to nine year high of USD 23 billion in the October-December quarter of 2021-22. Expressed in terms of GDP, the current account deficit surged to 2.7 percent of GDP. In the previous quarter (July-September), the current account deficit was USD 9.9 billion, a...

Impact of the Ukraine war on India
INDIA · Report · 21 Mar 2022

In thinking about the impact of the Ukraine war for India, there are three pathways: trade and investment, global financial/economic conditions, and geopolitical problems. In terms of trade and investment, there are low connections with the two countries. In terms of global financial/economi...

Budget 2022-23: A push for jobs through construction
INDIA · Report · 03 Feb 2022

One of the most important challenges facing the post-pandemic Indian economy is job loss due to the pandemic. In one initiative, the MSME sector, which employs a large number of people, is being given a helping hand through credit guarantees. In another, job creation is being addressed through a ...

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