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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The end game for Yes Bank
INDIA · Report · 10 Mar 2020

It was known for a while that Yes Bank had difficulties. There is no institutional arrangement for the resolution of financial firms in India. Each resolution is cobbled together, on the fly, by the Ministry of Finance with support from various financial agencies. However, in the past, when th...

Recent difficulties India faces
INDIA · In Brief · 06 Mar 2020

In 2020, the Indian government has been grappling with four challenges:The political conflict associated with the citizenship question,The financial crisis, where Yes Bank has particularly been under stress,The problems of telecom, where Vodafone has particularly been under stress,Covid-19.In thi...

Review of the inflation targeting framework
INDIA · Report · 25 Feb 2020

Inflation targeting began in India in February 2015. It was the first time in India’s history that the central bank had an objective: prior to this, it followed a “multiple objectives, multiple indicators, multiple instruments” approach that constituted all discretion and no rules. The first f...

Business cycle conditions in Oct-Nov-Dec 2019
INDIA · Report · 20 Jan 2020 · 1 response

The first information about macroeconomic conditions in the Oct-Nov-Dec 2019 quarter is now available. The leading indicator has improved significantly, to a value of 2.64 per cent below the long-term trend. A key indicator that improved greatly was new projects, which may be a slight aberration ...

Turbulence for Vodafone Idea next week
INDIA · In Brief · 19 Jan 2020

Vodafone Idea is a large telecom company. For 2018-19, their consolidated revenue was Rs.0.42 trillion and their balance sheet size was Rs.2.48 trillion. Their profit after tax has been negative for the three latest years (2016-17, 2017-18 and 2018-19). In the latest year, the profit after tax wa...

A gap has opened up between the performance of listed and unlisted companies
INDIA · Report · 08 Jan 2020

Listed firms in India experienced buoyant growth from 1999 until about 2006, but their growth in the following period has been disappointing. In this note, we find that until 2012, listed and unlisted firms fared similarly. But since 2012, a significant gap has opened up between the two groups. U...

Business cycle conditions in Jul-Aug-Sep 2019
INDIA · Report · 01 Nov 2019

The best measure of business cycle conditions in India is the coincident indicator, which is a linear combination of well measured underlying indicators. The coincident indicator deteriorated in Jul-Aug-Sep 2019, to 3.78 per cent below trend. The leading indicator gives us a sense of how the c...

Macroeconomic conditions and update on the current financial stress situation
INDIA · Report · 22 Oct 2019

Values of +10% for the coincident indicator indicate a big boom in activity. The latest value, for Apr-Jun 2019, shows -1.93%. The leading indicator has deteriorated sharply. The latest value, for Jul-Sep 2019, shows -14%. (The units are not comparable with those of the coincident indicator). ...

Credit stress in large private firms
INDIA · Report · 08 Oct 2019

Credit stress in large private firms is one of the most important features of the Indian macroeconomy. In the class of listed companies with a balance sheet size of above Rs.0.5 trillion, we compute the "Distance to Default" (DtD) using the Merton/KMV model. A useful rule of thumb under Indian co...

Grappling with the slowdown by means of a corporate tax rate cut
INDIA · Report · 23 Sep 2019 · 1 response

The central challenge in Indian macroeconomics consists of the reduced investment rate of private persons. Corporate investment is now down to levels seen in previous slumps. There has been a sharp increase in the dividend payout rate. This shows firms paying out their cash, instead of investing ...

Continuing stress in the automobile industry
INDIA · Report · 17 Sep 2019

We revisit the comparison we made in our report of August 15, 2019, between the stress of 2008 and 2018 as seen in three components of the automobile industry – HCV's (heavy commercial vehicles), passenger cars and two-wheelers. In all three cases, we work with seasonally adjusted levels, and exp...

Macroeconomic conditions in Apr-May-Jun 2019
INDIA · Report · 07 Sep 2019

The Indian economy and the listed firms got strong growth in 1991–2011. After that, there have been greater difficulties. The top line of listed companies (non-oil and non-finance) has seen three weak patches. There was the Lehman crisis, when aggregate sales actually declined. There was a flat p...

This time is different: comparing 2008 and 2018 in the performance of the automobile industry
INDIA · Report · 15 Aug 2019

We compare 2008 and 2018 as seen in three components of the automobile industry – HCV (heavy commercial vehicles), passenger cars and two-wheelers. In all three cases, we work with seasonally adjusted levels, and express the starting value as an index of 100. This permits direct comparison of two...

Settlement systems on stock exchanges in India
INDIA · In Brief · 05 Aug 2019

In the bad old days, the Indian financial markets infrastructure worked poorly. The Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) used to have many settlement failures. The last major failure which took place on the equity market was on the Calcutta Stock Exchange in 2001. (There was also a settlement failure in a...

A batch of policy initiatives to combat the current financial stress
INDIA · Report · 19 Jul 2019

A package of policy initiatives aimed at addressing the current financial stress came out from the RBI, SEBI and the Ministry of Finance from June 27 to July 6. We look at the stock price response of large private financial firms. The impact is somewhat negative. There may be an element of procyc...

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