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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Jul 2
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Brazil Economics databank Jun 16
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Central America databank Jun 27
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Chile databank May 27
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Jul 7
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Dominican Republic databank Jun 18
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Hungary databank Jun 23
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India databank Jun 26
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Mexico databank Jul 1
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Panama databank May 13
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Peru databank Jun 27
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Philippines databank Jun 6
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Poland databank Apr 29
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Russia Economics databank Jun 16
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South Africa databank Jun 9
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Turkey databank Apr 24
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Ukraine databank May 12
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Venezuela databank Jul 7
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - CAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA: POLITICAL PASSIONS IN THE...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
A small firm default that says something more
INDIA · In Brief · 17 Oct 2018
In our previous report, of 15 October, we had said: Deleveraging at NBFCs has adverse effects upon the real economy, particularly in areas where NBFCs were important, such as real estate and micro-finance. The stock market drama of 17 October turned out to be about a default by a real estate comp...
Macroeconomic and financial stress in five areas
INDIA · Report · 15 Oct 2018
In India today there are five areas of stress that are interacting with each other. They are: 1) the bond market; 2) non-bank financial companies; 3) mutual funds; 4) the banking crisis; and 5) currency depreciation. Investor flows into mutual funds, which fed demand for primary issuance of b...
ILFS default and what comes next
INDIA · Report · 23 Sep 2018
Non Bank Finance Companies (NBFCs) have succeeded in India given the difficulties of banks. They have somewhat bank-like assets with bond market financing. Fixed income mutual funds have become an important method for channeling household and corporate treasury money into the bond market. But the...
Drama in IL&FS and its implications
INDIA · Report · 17 Sep 2018
IL&FS is a financial/infrastructure conglomerate with a consolidated balance sheet of about Rs.1 trillion. Reflecting the difficulties of the economy and the financial system, this firm has been under credit stress for many years. Some of its subsidiaries recently defaulted. This could potentiall...
Will RBI defend the rupee?
INDIA · In Brief · 12 Sep 2018
The Indian rupee has depreciated sharply in the first week of September. Since 3rd September 2018 it has been the fastest depreciating currency in Asia.There seem to be three key factors at play. First, EM currencies are under pressure. Second, India is a large oil importer and global oil prices ...
A fresh debate over GDP measurement, and historical growth
INDIA · Report · 03 Sep 2018
The GDP measurement debate was reignited by a government committee that proposed a historical (“back”) series that accentuated the superiority of GDP growth during the 10 years of the UPA, compared with the four years of the present government. Many economists mechanically interpret GDP data, ...
RBI hikes interest rates
INDIA · In Brief · 01 Aug 2018
The Monetary Policy Committee of the Reserve Bank of India hiked the policy interest rate by 25 basis points to 6.5 per cent today. The move came after RBI had hiked rates for the first time after 4 years in June 2018. Inflation data in India shows that while there has been a moderation of food p...
Can private banks fill the gap created by weak public banks?
INDIA · Report · 30 Jul 2018
An optimistic reading of Indian banking involves the proposition that India is achieving a useful de facto transition from public-sector-bank domination to a domination by private banks. In this reading, private bank credit is growing fast and will supplant the lack of credit growth by the publi...
A clear recovery in firm data, less so in other indicators
INDIA · Report · 27 Jun 2018
What is the state of business cycle conditions in India today? The net sales of large firms show a clear recovery. There is strong export buoyancy and early signs of easing of the balance sheet crisis in non-financial firms. But the picture is not good for investment and profitability. There is ...
The Indian economy
INDIA · Presentation · 08 Jun 2018
While conventional GDP data shows a certain story, net sales at current prices may tell a different story.
The RBI hikes the policy rate
INDIA · Report · 06 Jun 2018
The Monetary Policy Committee of the RBI hiked the policy repo rate by 0.25 bps to 6.25%, voting 6-0 in favor of the rate hike. Today’s monetary policy decision took place at a time when there is pressure on the rupee to depreciate, bond yields are rising, EMs have been witnessing capital outflo...
The banking crisis got worse
INDIA · Report · 10 Apr 2018
Three remarkable events took place in the last two weeks. A corruption investigation began concerning the CEO of the largest private bank, ICICI Bank. RBI forced the exit of the CEO of Axis Bank, a large private bank. And central investigation agencies have begun asking RBI employees (including a...
The banking crisis is changing shape
INDIA · Report · 13 Mar 2018
The banking crisis is mutating (going beyond excessive leverage to new concerns about operational risk) and deepening (the problems of many banks are getting worse). The banking system is increasingly pulling back from its role in the economy. In a remarkable decision a few hours ago, the RBI ban...
A gap between reported and true GDP?
INDIA · Report · 16 Feb 2018
There is a remarkable divergence between reported nominal GDP and a sensible nominal output proxy in the period after the CSO changed the methods for GDP measurement. This has interesting implications for how we think about fiscal economics.
The first sign of recovery, in the labor market
INDIA · Report · 23 Jan 2018
Some data about the labor market is now visible through the CMIE Consumer Pyramids household survey data. This shows that the demonetization and GST events made for difficulties from Sep-Dec 2016 to May-Aug 2017. In Sep-Dec 2017, conditions stopped worsening, and by one indicator, have started i...