ARGENTINA
Analysts
Domingo Cavallo
Former Economy Minister and Central Bank President
Joaquin Cottani
Former Economy SecretaryDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
As inflation breaks the 2% psychological mark, the government explains how it will accumulate reserves without losing control of the money supply
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 13 Jun 2025
This week ended on two positive notes. Yesterday, INDEC reported that May inflation was 1.5% m/m, down from 3.7% in March and 2.8% in April. The low print benefited from a reduction (-2.7%) in seasonal prices and underadjustment (1.3%) of regulated prices. However, although core inflation (2.2%) ...
The search for "endogenous" dollars
ARGENTINA · Report · 10 Jun 2025
Argentina is a bi-monetary economy not because the peso and the dollar circulate with equal ease but because, to protect themselves against inflation, Argentineans have traditionally invested a large percentage of their wealth portfolios in US dollar instruments, including cash held in dollars th...
Understanding Argentina's current stance on exchange rate and monetary policies
ARGENTINA · Report · 16 May 2025
The economic policies enacted by Argentina’s government since December 2023 have been successful on many fronts, but there are storm clouds on the horizon that cannot be ignored. The most important achievement so far has been fiscal consolidation. However, while impressive and strictly necessary ...
Does the mild depreciation of the peso after the (partial) elimination of the cepo mean that the peso is no longer overvalued?
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 01 May 2025
In a recent report (see https://globalsourcepartners.c...), I explained the analytical difference between the nominal exchange rate (NER) and the real one (RER) for those who needed a refresher tutorial on the subject. In short, the NER is the relative price between two assets (foreign and domest...
How much does Argentina's new economic plan differ from the previous one?
ARGENTINA · Report · 25 Apr 2025
Two weeks into Argentina’s new economic plan, which received strong support from the IMF, we have a clearer picture of what we can and cannot expect from it. Three things stand out. First, it is not the third phase of the same plan, as the government claims, but a new plan that was introduced bec...
Argentina's IMF-supported new measures look good on paper, but the devil is in the details
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 13 Apr 2025
On Friday, Argentina and the IMF released the full content of the economic program that will be implemented under the auspices of the $20 billion, four-year EFF Agreement that the Fund's board has just approved. For the details of the program, see https://www.imf.org/en/News/Ar... and https://www...
Webinar Replay and Slide Presentation - Argentina’s Economic Crossroads: Currency valuation, IMF talks and the path to stability
ARGENTINA · Report · 04 Apr 2025
Is the Argentine peso overvalued and will there be another devaluation? Are Argentina’s national accounts balanced at the current ARS level? What are the timelines and conditions for IMF negotiations? How will inflation dynamics develop? What impact will credit penetration have? What is the curre...
Reality bites
ARGENTINA · Report · 24 Mar 2025
A series of unfortunate events descended upon Argentina in the last four weeks that disrupted the fragile Pax Financiera the country had enjoyed since August of last year. Trumpian economics or, more accurately, the global uncertainties created by it, was the first mishap. Here, the concern is ho...
On original and mortal sins
ARGENTINA · Report · 17 Mar 2025
Critics of the Caputo Plan of December 2023 would have preferred that the myriad exchange controls that constitute the so-called "cepo cambiario" (hereinafter, "cepo") had been eliminated at the start of the plan or shortly thereafter. According to them, the failure to do so by the government is ...