ARGENTINA
Analysts
Domingo Cavallo
Former Economy Minister and Central Bank President
Joaquin Cottani
Former Economy SecretaryDatabanks
Events
Recent Country Insights
Reality bites
ARGENTINA · Report · 24 Mar 2025
A series of unfortunate events descended upon Argentina in the last four weeks that disrupted the fragile Pax Financiera the country had enjoyed since August of last year. Trumpian economics or, more accurately, the global uncertainties created by it, was the first mishap. Here, the concern is ho...
On original and mortal sins
ARGENTINA · Report · 17 Mar 2025
Critics of the Caputo Plan of December 2023 would have preferred that the myriad exchange controls that constitute the so-called "cepo cambiario" (hereinafter, "cepo") had been eliminated at the start of the plan or shortly thereafter. According to them, the failure to do so by the government is ...
Is the peso overvalued? A technical note
ARGENTINA · Report · 18 Feb 2025
In this report, I argue that, contrary to what President Milei and members of his economic team say, the Argentine peso is overvalued. By how much—I don't know, nor do I think anyone does. I know that the peso is overvalued for three reasons. First, because of the cepo: if it didn't exist, the no...
Waiting for the Fund
ARGENTINA · Report · 06 Feb 2025
Discussions between the IMF and Argentina on the new Extended Facilities Agreement (EFF) that will replace the one that just expired seem to be on track. Negotiations accelerated in the last two months, and it is quite likely that the agreement will be reached before the end of March. Taking the ...
As December inflation meets expectations, BCRA announces it will reduce crawl to 1% in February
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 15 Jan 2025
Yesterday, INDEC unveiled the December inflation number. It came at 2.7% m/m, in line with expectations, bringing 2004 annual inflation to 118%, down from 211% in 2023. The satisfactory headline December print encouraged BCRA to announce a reduction in the exchange rate crawl from 2% to 1% starti...
2025 Economic Outlook: Better than last year, but not out of the woods yet
ARGENTINA · Forecast · 07 Jan 2025
This report, the first of the year, outlines the macroeconomic forecasts for 2025 that I consider more important. Naturally, these forecasts may change significantly as reality unfolds because there are many uncertainties lingering regarding the economy, particularly those related to the midterm ...
Assessing Argentina's country risk
ARGENTINA · Report · 17 Dec 2024
This is the last of three reports that discuss an equal number of economic variables whose seemingly excellent performance against the odds have investors scratching their heads. The two previous reports were about inflation and the FX gap. In this one, I delve into external solvency or, as it is...
Highlights of yesterday's speech by President Milei
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 11 Dec 2024
Yesterday, December 10th, 2024, President Javier Milei addressed the Nation on the occasion of the first anniversary of his government. It was a 37-minute speech broadcast on national radio and television in which, instead of highlighting this year's achievements, which were many, he focused on t...
The foreign exchange market in the Milei era
ARGENTINA · Report · 05 Dec 2024
This is the second report in a trilogy whose main purpose is to make sense of current market optimism while raising awareness of the risks market participants will face between now and the October 2025 midterm election. The first report dealt with inflation and whether it had converged with a lev...