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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

China and Venezuela
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 09 Jan 2026

The American extraction of Maduro in Venezuela and American engagement in the country is likely to have two long-term impacts on China: 1) New assumptions about American military power, particularly relating to Taiwan; and 2) A more multilateral approach to debt negotiations with Venezuela ...

GULF WEEKLY: Saudi bonds, Tadawul opens to all foreigners, Oman financial center plans, protests intensify in Iran
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 09 Jan 2026

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The oil market digested the implications of Venezuela developments and the major protests in Iran. * OPEC+ held steady, but Kazakhstan’s overproduction could average 65% in H1, prompting a crisis. * Saudi-backed forces to...

Positive results at the end of 2025
INDONESIA · Report · 09 Jan 2026

The Indonesian economy has shown resilience in the midst global uncertainty as well as uncertainty in domestic policies. The external balance remained strong, but the fiscal situation faced increasing challenges. The real sector continued to be driven by the external accounts, domestic consumptio...

Preliminary figures from the National Fund suggest that overall tax collection in December was fairly moderate
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 09 Jan 2026

The Ministry of Finance has begun releasing full-year 2025 financial statistics, starting with data on the National Fund’s assets. As of January 1, 2026, the Fund’s assets rose to KZT39.644 trln from KZT34.730 trln a year earlier. While the official figures are in national currency, applying rele...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Rate monotony is the base case across the CCA in 2026, with a handful of compelling exceptions
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 09 Jan 2026

I have discussed on a number of occasions the analytical framework I employ to think about currencies in the CCA region, so I now turn to the rates space. I use three simple quantitative models in an attempt to pin down the proper stance of monetary policy in each individual country. I then proce...

2025 fiscal deficit is much bigger than officially expected... or will it still be in line in the end?
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Jan 2026

It has just been reported that the central government's cash deficit ended up at HUF5739bn or 6.6% of GDP in full-year 2025, according to preliminary figures. This means no less than HUF1668bn (an annualised 23.1% of GDP) in December alone, which is quite an impressive sum for a single month, eve...

South Yemen separatists suffer dramatic reversal, as Saudi-backed forces advance on Aden
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 07 Jan 2026 · 1 response

In the last few days, the Saudi-backed forces of Yemen's government have made rapid advances against South Yemen separatists, who had seemed on the cusp of an independence bid. This now seems to be off the cards, and the government forces may soon retake Aden, Yemen's second city, which has been ...

The 2026 GDP revision: restoring the signal
INDIA · Report · 07 Jan 2026

Ever since the controversial methodology changes of 2015, the credibility of India's national accounts has been significantly impaired. Sophisticated observers, including ourselves, largely decoupled from official GDP statistics, relying instead on a mosaic of high-frequency proxies to gauge the ...

Business-sector survey signals acceleration in activity toward year-end
ISRAEL · In Brief · 07 Jan 2026

The latest Business Survey for December 2025, which provides the closest local proxy to a PMI and covers both the industrial and services sectors, points to a further acceleration in activity toward year-end. The net balance for current activity rose to 20.88 points from 19.68 in November, althou...

We entered the New Year, now exit quickly
TURKEY · In Brief · 07 Jan 2026

Greetings from a planet that makes no sense and harbor few intelligence specimens, Earthlings. In the short span of a couple of weeks during which our team took a breather from machine-gun speed report writing, a pause which in my case lasted longer on account of my traditional winter upper respi...

Why Maduro’s fall is good news in Kyiv
UKRAINE · In Brief · 06 Jan 2026

From a bird’s-eye view, the U.S. operation in Venezuela resembles what Russia attempted to do in Ukraine in 2022—and failed. Yet despite this parallel, the developments are viewed largely positively in Ukraine. Ukrainians have learned the hard way what real politics looks like, and we have no ill...

Dotty old man: smile & wave
UKRAINE · Report · 06 Jan 2026

Though the situation for Ukraine is quite tough, it’s hard not to smile at the latest wave of peace deal efforts. Russian President Vladimir Putin openly plays with U.S. President Donald Trump’s aspirations to win a Nobel Peace Prize, using a tease-and-retreat approach: maintaining the illusion o...

Macroeconomic and geopolitical developments – Weekly report, January 6, 2026
ISRAEL · Report · 06 Jan 2026

The year ends on a calmer note, with Israel’s macro-economic environment improving. Still, it is constrained by tight labor markets, and fiscal uncertainty exists. Domestic demand indicators point to solid fourth-quarter momentum, the shekel remains firm, and risk premia have continued to decline...

Attention, friends of convergence trade: Tisza aims at euro introduction in medium term
HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Jan 2026

It had been claimed by Tisza for a while, more or less superficially, that they would go for the introduction of the euro in Hungary, should they win at the election later this year. However, Tisza held a news conference yesterday, at which Péter Magyar, founder and head of the party, and András ...

Bank of Israel cuts rates for a second time, signals a dovish stance; 2026 growth forecast revised higher
ISRAEL · In Brief · 05 Jan 2026

Contrary to market expectations, the Bank of Israel surprised with a second consecutive rate cut. As we noted yesterday, the prevailing macroeconomic conditions supported further easing, leaving little justification for keeping rates at their current level. The policy statement conveyed a more do...

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