GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

The real continues on an appreciation trajectory, with performance that stands out relative to developed and emerging peers. The movement reflects higher oil prices, which tend to improve the terms of trade and the country’s external position, combined with strong inflows of foreign capital into ...

Words vs deeds

TURKEY · Report · 22 Apr 2026

The CBRT/MPC left the policy rate unchanged at 37% at today’s meeting, broadly in line with the consensus. The statement notes that the “underlying trend of inflation declined in March” but that “leading indicators suggest a slight increase” in April. It also states that the effects of geopolitic...

The House may vote today on the admissibility of two PECs on the 6x1 work schedule, the STF will review cases challenging the "minimum subsistence level", and today is the deadline for the subsidy for imported diesel

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Apr 2026

Today, the Lower House’s Constitution and Justice Committee (CCJC) is expected to vote on Congressman Paulo Azi’s (União-BA) favorable opinion regarding the admissibility of two constitutional amendment proposals (PECs) addressing the 6-day workweek (6x1 schedule). On today’s agenda at the Suprem...

To what extent was China’s higher-than-expected GDP growth driven by inventory accumulation?

CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 22 Apr 2026

Special points to highlight in this report: - China’s 5.0% GDP growth in Q1 came in above expectations, but the expenditure-side components of GDP growth all came in below expectations. Because the former is the sum of the latter, there seemed to be a discrepancy in the data releases last wee...

Trumping monetary policy: time for BSP to tighten

PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 21 Apr 2026

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) faces a clear policy imperative: shift decisively to tightening. The evidence is no longer ambiguous— inflationary pressures are broadening, deepening, and becoming more persistent. We therefore believe that the BSP will initiate tightening monetary policy in...

Kazakhstan macro: GDP growth to moderate this year

KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 21 Apr 2026

According to the Bureau of National Statistics, economic trends looked better in March as the economy continued to recover from the January shock caused by disruptions in oil exports (and accordingly, extraction) due to the damaged CPC oil pipeline terminal. Still, in 1Q26 as a whole, economic g...

Electoral uncertainty persists

PERU · Report · 21 Apr 2026

In this report, we offer an initial assessment of the results of the April 12-13 national elections. We begin by discussing the uncertainty resulting from the tie for second place in the first round of the presidential election, and the difficulties faced by the Oficina Nacional de Procesos Elect...

Geopolitics remain the main driver, shekel strength deepens; inflation under control - Weekly report, April 21, 2026

ISRAEL · Report · 21 Apr 2026

Key developments and outlook - Geopolitics remains the dominant driver: While the recent ceasefires have reduced immediate risks, uncertainty around a potential U.S.-Iran agreement and the fragile ceasefire in Lebanon could lead to another round of fighting in the coming weeks. - For the ...

Tisza is moving forward on all fronts

HUNGARY · In Brief · 21 Apr 2026

The war-hit pumping station of the Druzhba oil pipeline, which has been inactive since January 27, miraculously recovered just a few days after the election in Hungary. There is no connection between the two events, of course. Technical tests have reportedly started today and oil may start to flo...

Legislative-Supreme Court crisis escalates and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Apr 2026

This will be a lighter week due to the Tuesday holiday (Tiradentes Day). President Lula is on an official trip to Europe. A vote is scheduled for Wednesday on the admissibility of constitutional amendments addressing the end of the 6x1 work schedule at the Lower House Constitution and Justice Com...

President Noboa’s legacy

ECUADOR · Forecast · 20 Apr 2026

We have written before that President Noboa single-handedly managed to lose nearly 30% of his popularity ratings in the first 10 months of his mandate due to controversial decisions and the lack of a clear, statesmanlike view. However, he will leave an unquestionably beneficial legacy in the exte...

Strong headline growth; growing underlying imbalances

CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 20 Apr 2026

Special points to highlight in this report: - China’s 5.0% GDP growth in Q1 looks solid, but as always, it is driven mainly by production rather than consumption. Industrial output remains strong while retail sales and household income lagged even more than expected, widening the gap between ...

Economics: The 2027 General Pre-Criteria for Economic Policy shows excessive optimism and disconnect from Mexico’s reality

MEXICO · Report · 20 Apr 2026

At the beginning of the month, the SHCP sent the General Pre-Criteria for Economic Policy for 2027 (PCGPE) to the Congress of the Union. These documents constitute the first step in the budget preparation process for the coming year and include an update of the macroeconomic framework and the exp...

Politics: A preliminary assessment of the new Mexican Supreme Court’s performance so far

MEXICO · Report · 20 Apr 2026

The new Mexican Supreme Court (SCJN), operational for nearly eight months, has already issued two highly controversial rulings that have generated widespread distrust and concern. The first authorizes the Financial Intelligence Unit (UIF) to freeze bank accounts of individuals and companies witho...

Nightmare on Elm Street

TURKEY · Report · 19 Apr 2026

The phrase “mutlak butlan” (fully null and void) made it back to the politics lexicon a second time, as the scuttlebutt claims Kemal Kilicdaroglu will soon be appointed as trustee to CHP. Meanwhile, MHP leader Bahceli took the axe to his party’s provincial organizations during the week, dissolvin...