NEWS FLASH

ANNOUNCING COVERAGE OF THE CAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA...

DR Central Bank reduces the monetary policy rate
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 31 May 2023

Today the Central Bank of the Dominican Republic (BCRD) decided to reduce the monetary policy interest rate  by 50 basis points, from 8.50% to 8.00% per year. This means that the rate of the permanent liquidity expansion facility (1-day Repos) decreases to 8.50% per year and the rate of interest-...

A complicated political panorama for the elections
ECUADOR · In Brief · 31 May 2023

The schedule for the elections of next August is putting pressure on all political organizations to define their alliances and candidates, who should be registered at the Electoral Council by next June 7th after being defined through an internal election process. So far, the candidates who have c...

The economy adapts to new arrangements and recovers gradually
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 31 May 2023

Rosstat released monthly economic statistics for April, which looks not too bad. Industrial output grew in April by 5.2% y-o-y, which brought the 4M23 growth to positive territory (0.4% y-o-y). In 1Q23, industrial output was down by 0.9% y-o-y. Seasonally adjusted m-o-m growth was up in April by ...

Economic activity slows visibly in Q1
TURKEY · Report · 31 May 2023

The Turkish economy expanded by a faster than expected 4% on an annual basis (2022Q4: 3.5%), but by a meager 0.3% over the previous quarter, down from 0.9% in Q4 of last year (Graph 1). Focusing, as usual, on the sequential (quarter-on-quarter) data, which is more informative in terms of the late...

The House approved the bill on the demarcation of indigenous lands, the House also approved the re-creation of the Bolsa Família program, and the STF may adjudicate a case on the approval of a new railway
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 31 May 2023

Despite the government's efforts, the House approved PL 490/07 yesterday, which establishes the year 1988 as the time frame for the demarcation of indigenous lands. In the Senate, the analysis of the bill is unlikely to be so quick. This issue will be on the Supreme Federal Court (STF) agenda nex...

Kazakhstan macro: government amends 2023 budget but not as much as in 2022
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 30 May 2023

In April, the Kazakh government amended both local and republican budget expenditures as it raised the revenue outlook for this year. The country’s Ministry of Finance recently published budget execution statistics for 4M23, which looked decent even though the tax collection of the republican bud...

Economics: Data published in May tended to show continuing growth but at a slower pace
MEXICO · Report · 30 May 2023

While GDP for the first quarter (3.7%) came in 2bp lower than the preliminary figure published almost a month earlier, consumption and gross fixed capital formation figures for the first months of the year came in higher than expected, prompting us to upwardly revise our growth projection for 202...

A mixed growth outlook – and an upstart presidential challenger
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 30 May 2023

El Salvador’s economic activity continues under the adverse influence of external conditions, as well as a lack of domestic drivers to stoke growth, including restricted fiscal room due to severe financing restrictions. The monthly index of economic activity, with figures to February 2023, has sl...

The Bahamas announces income tax plan while finances improve
JAMAICA / BAHAMAS · Report · 30 May 2023

A couple of months ago, toward the end of the first quarter, the technocrats at The Bahamas Ministry of Finance appeared “jubilant” as they now all believed they had escaped the need for an IMF program. This optimism appeared to be driven by the strong tourism-led economic recovery and its impact...

Kazakhstan declines to join the Russia-Belarus Union
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 30 May 2023

On May 26 President Tokayev said that Kazakhstan would not be changing its status. Kazakhstan is a member of the Eurasian Economic Union. The other members are Kyrgyzstan, Armenia, Russia and Belarus.In 1999 Belarus and Russia formed the union state. They agreed to full reunification eventually. ...

Moscow and Kyiv both bombarded
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 30 May 2023

On May 27 and 28 there were air strikes, missile strikes and drone attacks on Kyiv. Ukraine said 40 drones attacked Kyiv and 14 attacked other cities. There have been 15 nights of aerial bombardment on Kyiv in May 2023. On May 28 Ukraine said there were no casualties in Kyiv. Even of Ukraine is l...

Politics: De facto expropriation of section of rail line and the political decomposition it entails
MEXICO · Report · 30 May 2023

When Mexican Marines took control on May 19 of a 75-mile stretch of rail line operated by a subsidiary of Mexico’s second largest conglomerate, Grupo Mexico, the seizure was a form of expropriation as officials have never indicated when, if ever, they might return it. The takeover is part of Pres...

The MP on the tie-breaking vote in the CARF expires this week, the government continues negotiations on the fiscal framework bill, and President Lula meets with presidents of South American countries
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 May 2023

The Provisional Measure (MP) that instituted the tie-breaking vote in the Administrative Council of Tax Appeals (Carf) expires this week. As it is being analyzed with a constitutional urgent status, it will block the agenda of the plenary of the House on June 21. Negotiations on the fiscal framew...

Russian macro: gradual de-Westernization is on the way
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 30 May 2023

As the Western countries decided to cut trade with Russia and oust it from the USD/EUR/GBP/JPY segment of the global financial system, Russian businesses shrugged their shoulders in bewilderment and gradually started looking for alternatives. Despite the various inconveniences caused by the fact ...

Analysis of the fiscal framework in the Senate and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 May 2023

The fiscal framework begins analysis in the Senate. Provisional measures that expire on June 1 may be put to a vote in the House and Senate, including the measure on the structure of the government. We expect the appointment of Cristiano Zanin to the Supreme Federal Court (STF). President Lula me...