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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Economic growth improves in Q2-2025
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 09 Sep 2025

South Africa’s quarter-on-quarter real GDP expanded by 0.8% during the second quarter of 2025 following the first quarter’s 0.1% q/q increase. On account of the generally weak quarterly growth rates, real GDP in the first half of the year was only 0.7% higher than that of the corresponding period...

The great Chinese tech mirage
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 09 Sep 2025

“Underestimating China” has become the new consensus of China’s current global position. From China’s rise to the collapse post-Covid, we now have a new discussion that sees China’s industrial capacity and technological prowess as a potential threat to the West. Council on Foreign Relations An...

The federal budget deficit is expected to surpass the revised target
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 09 Sep 2025

According to the Ministry of Finance's 8M25 budget execution statistics, total revenues increased by only 3.0% year-on-year, covering about 61.6% of the adjusted annual plan. The original plan projected oil-and-gas (O&G) revenues at R10.9 trln, but this was revised down to R8.3 trln. Due to a str...

Don’t look up: watch “peace deal”
UKRAINE · Report · 09 Sep 2025

It’s remarkable how world leaders skillfully avert their eyes from harsh realities, continuing to speak of some fanciful end to the war, and "security guarantees" that offer neither security nor guarantees. This diplomatic ballet feels especially detached from reality when viewed from Ukrainian c...

The STF resumes Bolsonaro’s trial, the report on the Management Committee bill should be released, and the proposal on precatórios should be promulgated
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Sep 2025

The First Panel of the Supreme Federal Court (STF) today resumes the criminal trial against former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) and seven other defendants accused of attempting a coup d’état in 2022. The trial will continue until Friday, September 12. In the Senate, the rapporteur of the complem...

Market and Business Backlash Over Flood Control Corruption
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 09 Sep 2025

As the Philippines' House of Representatives and the Senate pursue public hearings on the anomalous flood control projects, one clear consequence has been a negative market reaction. Just before the weekend, the Philippine Stock Exchange Index slipped 0.75% (46 points) to close at 6,082.92, while...

A changing of the finance guard
INDONESIA · Report · 09 Sep 2025

On September 8, 2025, there was a change in the line-up of the Indonesian cabinet involving an important post, that of the Finance Secretary. Sri Mulyani Indrawati, the former Finance Secretary, who was in that job for more than 10 years, was replaced by Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa, who had been in the ...

QATAR: Israeli airstrike on Hamas villa in Doha
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 09 Sep 2025

UPDATE: A Qatari security officer was killed. This significantly increases the stakes. Meanwhile, although some Hamas members were killed, the senior leaders were not. At about 4pm local time today, an Israeli airstrike targeted the residence of Hamas's political office in the West Bay Lagoon nei...

Flood control projects: breach of social contract?
PHILIPPINES · Report · 09 Sep 2025

Between 2011 and 2025, the Philippines allocated nearly ₱1.9 trillion to flood control projects, yet flooding has worsened due to pervasive corruption. Investigations reveal that as little as 40 percent of project funds reach implementation, with the rest siphoned off by politicians, DPWH officia...

Economics: Employment stagnates in the second quarter and July 2025
MEXICO · Report · 09 Sep 2025

According to the National Occupation and Employment Survey (ENOE), for the second quarter of 2025 and July, the growth in job numbers indicates a clear slowdown that began last year, consistent with the overall weakening of the economy. The employed population experienced a weak annual increase, ...

Clashes in Istanbul, terror in Izmir
TURKEY · In Brief · 09 Sep 2025

Gursel Tekin pits CHP followers against the police: The sacked CHP Istanbul provincial administration issued a call to members to congregate in front of the headquarters “to defend our ancestral home” against invader Gursel Tekin. Several hundred heeded the call marching towards the building, whe...

August CPI data marks no change in inflation prospects
HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 Sep 2025

The headline rate was 0% mom, 4.3% yoy, the latter unchanged from the previous month. Core inflation moved a bit down, to 3.9% yoy from July's 4% yoy, whereas non-fuel inflation rose a bit, to 5% yoy in August from 4.9% yoy in the previous month.Note: Yoy changes in percent, data right of the ver...

Encouraging August fiscal data for the Treasury, but risks persist ahead of the 2026 budget
ISRAEL · In Brief · 08 Sep 2025

Yesterday, the Ministry of Finance published positive budget data for August. Revenues came in stronger than expected, while the deficit narrowed more than anticipated, with the trailing 12-month deficit narrowing to 4.7% of GDP from 4.8% in July. The improvement largely reflects a sharp accelera...

September 7 highlights the political divide and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Sep 2025

The Supreme Federal Court (STF) resumes the trial of Bolsonaro and seven other defendants accused of attempting a coup d’état. The trial ends on Friday, September 12. Senator Eduardo Braga (MDB–AM) presents his report on Complementary Bill No. 108/22 (Tax Reform regulation). Former Social Securit...

Politics: Mexico pleased with the results of the Sheinbaum-Rubio meeting, but underlying differences remain
MEXICO · Report · 08 Sep 2025

The much awaited meeting between Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum and U.S. Secretary of State Mark Rubio was finally held in Mexico City on September 3. It was the highest-level meeting between the two countries since Donald Trump took office seven months ago. The meeting was held in shadow o...

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