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Panama Supreme Court Voids Panama Ports Concession: Vertical-Integration Risk for the Canal
PANAMA · In Brief · 30 Jan 2026

Panama’s Supreme Court has declared unconstitutional the legal framework underpinning Panama Ports Company’s (PPC) concession for the Balboa (Pacific) and Cristóbal (Atlantic) terminals, tied to the 1997 contract-law, its addenda, and the renewal act. These are not small assets: in 2025 Balboa ha...

GULF WEEKLY: Oil spikes on Iran concerns, Saudi winter games cancelled, L’imad absorbs ADQ, Bahrain issues bonds
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 30 Jan 2026

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil rose to $70 as the US naval armada neared Iran, and betting odds showed a growing conflict risk. * Gulf states are trying to de-escalate and will deny US usage of their territory and airspace for strikes. * Three Saud...

Webinar replay - Venezuela: What's next?
VENEZUELA · Report · 30 Jan 2026

Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar featuring Ruth Krivoy discussing what's next for Venezuela. The country is at a pivotal moment, marked by both uncertainty and opportunity. With tensions involving U.S. interests, Venezuelan sovereignty, shifting oil market prospects and ...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: The South Caucasus through a strategic lens
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 30 Jan 2026

A new era is dawning in the South Caucasus, in which politics, geopolitical developments, and a changing energy and security picture will increasingly feature as key investment variables, rather than background noise. Elections will take place in 2026 in Armenia, consolidation in politics is unde...

Energy ceasefire… we will stop killing you for a while…
UKRAINE · In Brief · 30 Jan 2026

My short comment on the energy ceasefire. When you have already destroyed everything strategically important that could be destroyed, further attacks bring only marginal additional effect. Yet you still have not achieved the outcome you expected, so you may try to sell your supposed “peacefulness...

Central Bank keeps the policy interest rate unchanged
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 30 Jan 2026

In February 2026, the policy interest rate will remain unchanged at 5.25% per year, following the Central Bank's decision yesterday. Likewise, the rate on the standing liquidity expansion facility (one-day repos) remains at 5.75% per year, while the overnight deposit facility rate continues at 4....

The Knesset approved the budget in its first reading, increasing the likelihood that it will also pass its second and third readings by March
ISRAEL · In Brief · 30 Jan 2026

Israel’s Knesset has approved the 2026 state budget in its first reading, by a 62-55 majority, following negotiations with ultra-Orthodox parties. The proposed budget must still pass second and third readings by March 31; failure to do so would trigger the dissolution of the Knesset and early ele...

The South African Reserve Bank starts the year by holding rates steady
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 29 Jan 2026

Having convened for its first meeting of 2026 this week, the South African Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) announced its interest rate decision today. Mostly in line with market expectations, the MPC voted to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 6.75%. As such, the prime l...

Costa Rican presidency still a toss-up
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 29 Jan 2026

Costa Rica approaches its February 1 presidential election with a tight and uncertain race, marked by high voter volatility and a fragmented political landscape. Polls place incumbent party candidate Laura Fernández at close to the 40% threshold required for a first-round victory, but the large s...

Here comes the sun
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 29 Jan 2026

There was no surprise regarding Copom’s decision to maintain the target for the benchmark Selic rate at 15.00% per year. It was also expected that the post-meeting communication would unlock the door that had kept an interest rate cut remote, by removing from the statement the expression: “To en...

IRAQ: Trump speaks out against Maliki’s bid to return as PM, while the fiscal crisis deepens
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 29 Jan 2026

* Former prime minister Nuri al-Maliki is attempting a comeback, but government formation stalled this week with Kurds divided on the presidency, and Trump spoke out against Maliki. * The parliament is highly fragmented, between and within sectarian groups. As a result, government formation can ...

Proceed with caution
CHILE · Report · 29 Jan 2026

The November Monthly Index of Economic Activity (IMACEC) confirmed that strength in October did not mark the start of a new trend. The pullback was broad-based, with commerce the lone exception, posting only a marginal gain. Our baseline for 2026 assumes GDP growth at slightly above 2%, broadly i...

A few snippets on most recent developments
HUNGARY · In Brief · 29 Jan 2026

By and large, the MNB's January rate-setting meeting on Tuesday proved to be a non-event, as expected. But, please, remain being warned that a base rate cut, most likely by 25bps, may come in late March, provided the usual early-year wave of price adjustments is found to have been completed with ...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 29 Jan 2026

Jan 15 Stock market: The trading volume on the Kazakhstan Stock Exchange (KASE) increased by 3% in 2025. Bureau of National Statistics: Investments in fixed assets in Kazakhstan increased by 13% in 2025. Bureau of National Statistics: Agricultural production in Kazakhstan increased by 5.9% in 202...

Pivotal winter of the war
UKRAINE · In Brief · 28 Jan 2026

Throughout January, Russia has been bombarding Kyiv with missiles and drones, apparently hoping that Ukrainians—caught between prolonged subzero weather and shattered infrastructure—will lose the will to resist and pressure their leaders to accept surrender, perhaps wrapped in the promise of a “p...

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