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Appreciating ruble, coupled with the growing gap between Brent and Urals oil prices, seems harmful to the economy
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 11 Feb 2026

Rosstat, which frequently updates its statistics, recently reported that GDP growth in 2024 was 4.9%, up from the previously stated 4.3%. With this higher 2024 base, the sharp slowdown in 2025 now seems less surprising. The initial Rosstat’s estimate for 2025 GDP growth is 1.0%, though many month...

Kyrgyzstan: "Two friends never fight for power"
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 11 Feb 2026

President Sadyr Japarov clears the decks ahead of a high-stakes presidential race looming larger. For the second time since Oct Kyrgyzstan has come to the fore in terms of offering us a glimpse of how the obscure political field in the country operates. In a largely unexpected, albeit probably no...

Politico.eu seen in Hungarian politics once again
HUNGARY · In Brief · 10 Feb 2026

This morning, Politico.eu, which excels as an efficient miner of inside information in Brussels, wrote on a currently considered five-point plan to bring Ukraine into the EU by 2027, referring to their conversations with ten officials and diplomats within the EU. This plan would greatly affect Hu...

The Federal Police was able to access Vorcaro’s cellphone, Motta submitted the 6x1 proposal to the CCJC, and urgency may also be voted on for the Redata bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Feb 2026

The news that the Federal Police managed to break the encryption on the cellphone of Daniel Vorcaro, owner of Banco Master, generated significant repercussions in Brasília. There is considerable anticipation regarding the information that may be recovered. The President of the Lower House, Hugo M...

Economics: 2025 Year-end public finance figures signal risks for 2026 and beyond
MEXICO · Report · 10 Feb 2026

The full-year 2025 figures show a fiscal deficit exceeding the official target by MXN $285 billion, closing at MXN $1.7 trillion, which is equivalent to 4.8% of GDP, down from 5.9% of GDP in 2024. This imbalance means the public sector as a whole increased its financial obligations by a non-trivi...

A decoupling of the market and the real sector?
INDONESIA · Report · 10 Feb 2026

The Indonesian economy seemed to be experiencing a kind of decoupling between the financial markets and the real sector. The market was very much affected by the warning by MSCI about the country's stock market and the lowering of the Indonesia's sovereign outlook by Moody's. However, real sector...

President Jeri risks impeachment; election race heats up; fiscal deficit reached 2.2% of GDP in 2025; PEN/USD appreciation persists
PERU · Report · 10 Feb 2026

We try to answer three key questions in this report: Will Congress impeach President José Jerí? Has the government met its fiscal targets? And is the Banco Central de la República del Perú (BCRP, the central bank) departing from its usual FX intervention policy? In politics, the focus remains...

Why is the Uzbek Soum losing some altitude in early 2026?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 10 Feb 2026

While I am on topic (Uzbekistan is gingerly breaking away from the twin-deficit curse), I offer my pithy thoughts on the early-year softening of the UZS since I have been prompted by client questions.  The 2025 unusual strengthening of regional currencies (vs the US$) figured prominently in my wr...

Israeli fiscal deficit edges up to 4.9% of GDP in January
ISRAEL · In Brief · 10 Feb 2026

The Ministry of Finance reported a fiscal surplus of NIS 16.9 billion ($5.3 billion) in January 2026, with the trailing 12-month deficit increasing to 4.9% of GDP, from 4.7% in December. The budget deficit peaked at 8.5% of GDP in September 2024. Direct taxes surprised on the upside, while indire...

Macroeconomic and geopolitical developments – Weekly report, February 9, 2026
ISRAEL · Report · 09 Feb 2026

Israel’s political arena remains highly turbulent, centered on three interlinked fronts: the 2026 state budget, which must be approved by March 31; the military conscription legislation, which remains stalled at the level of legal advisers; and, more recently, Prime Minister Netanyahu’s publicati...

Lula enters 2026 in campaign mode and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Feb 2026

The week leading up to Carnaval will see reduced activity in Congress. Four new presidential approval and voting polls will be released. In the House, highlights include a vote on urgency status for the Redata bill and consideration of the complementary bill on bank resolution. The government is ...

Deficits Through the Looking Glass
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 09 Feb 2026

In 2025, the public sector nominal deficit reached BRL 1.06 trillion (8.3% of GDP), the second highest ever. Although this figure raises concern, it is not the best indicator of debt dynamics. The evolution of the debt-to-GDP ratio depends on the operational result, defined as the primary deficit...

Politics: Recent changes in key political positions imply a new Sheinbaum-AMLO power balance
MEXICO · Report · 09 Feb 2026

Recent changes—first at the Financial Intelligence Unit in early August of last year, then at the Attorney General's Office in late November, and most recently last week on Sunday, February 1st, in the coordination of the Morena's Senate Parliamentary Group—empower President Claudia Sheinbaum vis...

The House is expected to vote on the urgent status of the bill on Data Centers, four presidential voting polls are expected for release this week, and the STF should analyze a case against the TCU’s new secretariat
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Feb 2026

The Lower House is expected to vote this week on an urgent status request for the bill establishing a Tax Regime for Data Centers (Redata), which would create tax incentives for the construction of data centers in Brazil. Four new presidential voting polls are scheduled for release this week. The...

Interpreting the US trade agreement
INDIA · Report · 09 Feb 2026

The interim trade framework between the United States and India, concluded in early February 2026, is an important moment in New Delhi's strategic calculus. While the agreement de-escalates a threatened trade war—reducing U.S. tariffs on Indian goods from a potential 50 percent aggregate to a uni...

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