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Economics: Trouble ahead despite some marginal upticks in the 1Q preliminary GDP report
MEXICO · Report · 05 May 2025

While last week’s preliminary GDP report for the first quarter may have marginally surpassed some expectations, its scant improvement appears to mask deeper economic problems. Robust numbers for January allowed the agricultural sector to deliver most of the economic growth last quarter, as indust...

Politics: Telecommunications reform poses the risk of an economic and political step backward
MEXICO · Report · 05 May 2025

A new telecommunications bill has sparked an uproar over the issue of censorship and freedom of expression in relation to the media. The proposed legislation replaces the Telecommunications Law approved in 2013 during Enrique Peña Nieto’s administration. While many of Peña Nieto’s policies have s...

Saudi Q1 fiscal - no sign of spending cuts and a record increase in debt
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 05 May 2025

The Ministry of Finance is getting timelier with its fiscal releases, publishing Q1 today, just five weeks after the quarter end and a week before Aramco's earnings. I will include some more analysis in the weekly report, but a few quick takeaways:The decline in oil revenue was as expected, due t...

April inflation broadly as expected
TURKEY · Report · 05 May 2025

Monthly CPI inflation came in at 3%, m/m, in April, slightly below consensus forecasts of around 3.2%, with the 12-month rate easing slightly further to just under 38% (37.9%), from just over (38.1%) in March. Domestic producer prices (D-PPI) rose by 2.8%, m/m, in the month, which led to a full p...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 05 May 2025

OVERVIEW LULA’S PLANS FACE A HOSTILE REALITY The Lula administration has found its helmsman in marketing strategist-turned-minister Sidônio Palmeira, making it clear that everything will be done to ensure the PT remains in power beyond 2027. This plan, however, will face serious challenges,...

Party realignments target the 2026 elections and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 May 2025

Brasília is expected to see more activity this week, following last week's holidays. In the Lower House, a Special Committee will be installed to analyze the personal income tax bill. In the Senate, discussions begin on the Management Committee (a part of Tax Reform regulation). Former President ...

Government bond issuance slows amid narrowing deficit and surplus funds
ISRAEL · In Brief · 05 May 2025

Israel’s Ministry of Finance announced plans to raise NIS 11.0 billion in tradable local bonds during May 2025, a moderate increase from NIS 9.81 billion in April but still well below the average monthly issuance of nearly NIS 16 billion recorded throughout 2024 and early 2025. The decline in iss...

The opposition pushes a Joint CPI to investigate the pension fund scandal, Congress debates the income tax exemption bill amid political maneuvering in the House, and the Senate begins hearings on the Tax Reform Steering Committee
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 May 2025

The opposition may file a request to establish a Joint Parliamentary Commission of Inquiry (CPMI) to investigate the diversion of more than R$ 6 billion from INSS retirees and pensioners. The scandal led to the resignation of Carlos Lupi from the Ministry of Social Security. The Speaker of the Lo...

Administrative price regulation will most likely be extended and broadened after end-May
HUNGARY · In Brief · 03 May 2025

Economy Minister Nagy has made a considerable number of public appearances on the existing administrative price regulation applied to the retail prices of certain food items recently. The summary of his statements must be as follows, we think: - The limitation of the retail price margins used at ...

No sequel to Duterte 1.0?
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 03 May 2025

What is at crucial stake in the forthcoming mid-term election on May 12 in the Philippines is not so much the large number of elective positions, and that is 18,280. It is rather the number of senators that Vice-President Sara Duterte could help land in the magic 12. Led by Speaker Martin Romuald...

Public finances appear solid in Q1, but a detailed examination reveals their fragility going forward.
MEXICO · In Brief · 02 May 2025

As of March, the fiscal deficit declined sharply. Revenues increased significantly and spending remained on a downward trend, although more moderately. Notwithstanding it is unlikely the annual fiscal targets will be met. In the first quarter of 2025, public finances showed significant improvemen...

A summer in purgatory
TURKEY · Forecast · 02 May 2025

The “narrow corridor” of 2025 that we’ve long been referring to, that of a CBRT traveling a tricky path between edgy politics and tenuous investor sentiment, has gotten narrower and more precarious quite a bit sooner than we anticipated. In this brief update to our previous quarterly/forecast ...

GULF WEEKLY: Saudi GDP revised up by 14%, $7.4bn in debt issued across GCC, Eric Trump launches GCC deals, Oman discusses US FTA
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 02 May 2025

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil traded lower in advance of an OPEC+ meeting tomorrow that could accelerate the taper. * Despite positive noises after a 3rd US-Iran meeting in Oman, Trump threatened secondary sanctions. * The IMF’s REO forecasts see ...

Webinar Replay - China’s Outlook in the Time of Trade Wars 
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 02 May 2025

With an escalating trade war between China and the US, how will China navigate the situation and what will the implications be for its economy and global trade? Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar featuring Michael Pettis discussing China's economic outlook in the time of...

Israeli geopolitics: Gaza deadlock, political tensions, and shifting regional dynamics
ISRAEL · Report · 02 May 2025

Key takeaways from this report: Israel’s political and public arenas remain turbulent, marked by tensions between the judiciary and the government, widespread frustration over the ongoing hostage crisis, and the unresolved issue of ultra-Orthodox conscription. Despite these pressures, early e...

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