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GULF WEEKLY: Qatar and Abu Dhabi GDP strong in Q1, Saudi current account returns to surplus, Oman Air joins oneworld
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 04 Jul 2025

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil recovered to around $69, despite expectations of another OPEC+ hike. * The Iran ceasefire held, but Trump and Khamenei continued a war of words. * Saudi Arabia’s current account returned to surplus, but FDI dipped sli...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 03 Jul 2025

The FX market remains stable, as the ruble hovers close to R/$78 for some time. It looks as though the ruble demonstrated some immunity to various domestic and external factors. In our view, it may fluctuate around these levels for a bit longer. However, at some point, the excessively strong will...

Downgrades and deficits will be Petro’s legacy
COLOMBIA · Report · 03 Jul 2025

Rumors began spreading last month that the government wanted to suspend the fiscal rule, not due to a true macroeconomic emergency, but because of a soaring deficit driven by the government’s expansive fiscal ambitions and flagging revenue performance. The only way out for an administration that...

The economy will likely avoid technical recession as May statistics look better
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 03 Jul 2025

A few weeks ago, Rosstat reported that in 1Q25, the nation’s seasonally adjusted GDP contracted by 0.6% Q-o-Q. This publication fueled speculation about Russia's entering a recession, especially because April statistics didn’t impress, either. As technical recession implies negative economic grow...

Inflation y-o-y rises amid a slow deceleration m-o-m prompting no decisive action from the NBK
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 03 Jul 2025

Inflationary pressure remains high as the Bureau of National Statistics reported inflation moved from 11.3% in May to 11.8% in June. However, it moderately decelerated last month to 0.8% m-o-m (versus 0.9% m-o-m in May and even higher numbers earlier this year). A year ago, inflation m-o-m was 0....

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: The battle of the Caucasus—What is happening between Azerbaijan and Russia and what will be the consequences?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 03 Jul 2025

Key events in the Caucasus are these days being forced upon us with constant regularity. While Pashinyan has resorted to extreme measures to suppress dissent against his unpopular moves to placate Turkey and Azerbaijan and strike a peace deal that the Armenian society sees as a capitulation, Aliy...

Better headline, thanks to food prices
TURKEY · Report · 03 Jul 2025

Consumer prices rose by a slightly less than expected 1.4%, m/m, in June, with the annual CPI-inflation rate easing modestly to 35.1%, from 35.4% in May. Monthly Domestic-PPI inflation posted a 2.5% increase in the month, with the 12-month rate, in contrast, rising further to 24.5%, from 23.1% in...

President Mulino´s State of the Union Speech: Messages to the voters and to the international markets
PANAMA · In Brief · 02 Jul 2025

Two hours after a surprise election of the Legislative Assembly's governing authorities, when a self-proclaimed opposition group to the government of José Raúl Mulino secured a narrow victory over Ricardo Martinelli's party, in a strange alliance with the deteriorating PRD, it was President Mulin...

The AGU filed an ADC to defend the constitutionality of the IOF tax hike, the House postponed the vote on the urgent status request for the tax benefits bill, and the Senate approved the MP that expands access to the Social Fund
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Jul 2025

The Office of the Attorney General (AGU) has filed a Declaratory Action of Constitutionality (ADC 96) with the Supreme Federal Court (STF) to defend the constitutionality of President Lula’s decree increasing the Tax on Financial Transactions (IOF). Justice Alexandre de Moraes is serving as the r...

Erdogan – Ozel feud: A temporary reprieve
TURKEY · In Brief · 02 Jul 2025 · 1 response

Contrary to expectations of a majority of experts, the court postponed its ruling on the CHP convention fraud case to 8 September which evoked new thinking about potential outcomes and timing. Is Erdogan making a peace offer to Ozel, or is this just a tactical pause? Spoiler alert, it is the latt...

The new leadership of the Legislative Assembly will be headed by a last-minute surprise candidate, Jorge Herrera, who defeated the favorite backed by José Raúl Mulino and Ricardo Martinelli and the PRD party.
PANAMA · In Brief · 01 Jul 2025

Context ahead of a key session in the Assembly Every year, on July 1st, the Legislative Assembly elects its presidents and vice presidents for a one-year term. The person who presides over the Assembly signs the laws issued by the State’s bodies, authorizes the legislature’s expenses (an importan...

Argentina ordered to surrender its 51% stake in YPF
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 01 Jul 2025

Yesterday, Judge Loretta Preska from the Southern District Court of NY ordered the Government of Argentina to surrender the 51% stake it has in YPF, the national oil company, to partially satisfy a $16.1 billion court judgement issued in 2023 and whose main beneficiary is Burford Capital. The gov...

Hugo Motta stated that the vote to overturn the IOF tax hike had support from both the right and the left, the House may vote on an urgent status request for another tax bill, and the import tax on electric vehicles will increase
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Jul 2025

The President of the Lower House, Hugo Motta (Republicanos-PB), stated that the vote to overturn the IOF tax hike included support from both right- and left-wing deputies. He criticized what he called the polarization of “us versus them.” Today, the House may vote on an urgent status request for ...

Maduro calls for peace—with one eye on opportunity
VENEZUELA · Report · 01 Jul 2025

It is too soon to predict the impact of the Iran–Israel ceasefire announced by President Trump on June 23. In any case, developments in the conflict point to a geopolitical realignment the effects of which will reach far beyond the Middle East. Even if Iran chooses to escalate, it will do so from...

Monetary policy rate remains unchanged in July 2025
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 01 Jul 2025

The Central Bank decided to keep the monetary policy interest rate unchanged at 5.75% annually for the seventh consecutive month. The rate for the overnight liquidity expansion facility (1-day repos) also remains at 6.25% annually, while the rate for overnight remunerated deposits continues at 4....

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