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Every journey begins with a first step
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 26 Jan 2026

Brazil’s growth has been supported by higher resource utilization, while the contribution from productivity remains limited. Among the various constraints on productivity in the country, low trade opening plays a prominent role. In this context, the agreement between Mercosur and the European Uni...

Economics: December and January economic activity figures indicate a slight upturn following the stagnation of 2025
MEXICO · Report · 26 Jan 2026

The economic activity figures released at the end of December and so far in January indicate that the stagnation of the first three quarters of the year has begun to transition to a very slight upturn in the last two months. This aligns with our growth expectation for 2026 of 1.1% (vs. 0.3% estim...

The right's agenda in Congress and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Jan 2026

Lower House President Hugo Motta (Republicans–PB) is meeting with party leaders to define the legislative agenda for the year. São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans) is scheduled to meet with former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) on Thursday, January 29. On the economic front, attent...

Macroeconomic and geopolitical developments – Weekly report, January 26, 2026
ISRAEL · Report · 26 Jan 2026

This week’s update is dominated by geopolitical uncertainty, with rising tensions surrounding Iran. At this stage, a U.S. military strike is not a certain outcome, and developments could still evolve toward increased diplomatic pressure or a negotiated arrangement. Nevertheless, the risk of escal...

Kazakhstan macro: ambitious VAT reform to reduce republican budget dependence on transfers, exchange rate
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 26 Jan 2026

The Kazakh authorities accomplished the fine-tuning of the tax reform with the intent to reduce the dependence of public finances on the USD/KZT exchange rate and oil prices. We mentioned previously that the main emphasis of this reform is not just the VAT hike but also how the tax should be paid...

Cabinet changes, and expectations of greater dynamism this year
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 26 Jan 2026

Economic performance in 2025 was weak. But the combination of government agenda prioritization efforts and signs of stronger growth toward yearend has fostered official optimism about economic activity for 2026. GDP growth for 2025 is estimated at 2.2%, less than half the 5% rate recorded in 2...

Politics: Foreign policy and national security omissions of the Mexican government in a critical context
MEXICO · Report · 26 Jan 2026

Mexico's development horizon, based on economic integration with the United States, entered a crisis starting with Trump's first presidency (2016-2020). His administration questioned NAFTA and migration, coming to perceive Mexico not as a reliable partner, but as a threat on multiple fronts, with...

Indian exports to the US under high tariffs
INDIA · Report · 26 Jan 2026

In late 2025, the Indian export sector faced a severe shock: the imposition of a 50-percent tariff by the United States for goods other than drugs or electronics. While early optimism relied on the personal chemistry between Prime Minister Modi and President Trump to mitigate these measures, the ...

MPC: check, Fitch: check, Syria: check
TURKEY · Report · 25 Jan 2026

The politics author starts his analysis with a heads-up which is not covered in the main body of the Weekly: Turkish Foreign Minister Fidan suspects Israel is about to attack Iran, a suspicion seconded in numerous international media sources. The Mullah regime falling without a clear successor, o...

January 2026 Colombia slide deck: Moderate optimism but plenty of noise until the run-off election in June
COLOMBIA · Presentation · 23 Jan 2026

Read the slide presentation prepared by Juan Carlos Echeverry, Andres Escobar and Mauricio Santamaría with charts on the most recent poll results for the coming elections, the current state of the fiscal accounts, and an overview of Colombia's economy and prospects.

GULF WEEKLY: Humain and G42 advance AI plans, Gulf joins Board of Peace, Syria takes Rojava
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 23 Jan 2026

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil ticked up a little to $65 as Trump mentioned the "armada" headed towards Iran. * GCC debt security issuance rose 14% in 2025, comprising 35% of EMs (ex-China). * Chinese bank lending to the GCC was $16bn in 2025, as ...

Extreme election uncertainty magnifies risks of macro forecasts
HUNGARY · Forecast · 23 Jan 2026

Less than three months before the parliamentary election, there remains extraordinarily high uncertainty as to the likely outcome. Opinion poll results are diverse, even though on average they suggest that the opposition Tisza is distinctly more popular than Fidesz. However, given the existing he...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Pashinyan is looking for agents of the KGB and "traitors of Christ" in Armenia
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 23 Jan 2026

The start of the political year in Armenia has been rich in events and indicative of the kind of fraught environment that we are to face in the runup to the all-important Parliamentary vote in Jun. This is not surprising as I argued in my Year-Ahead Outlook that I fully expected Armenia to be the...

NBK kept the base rate unchanged
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 23 Jan 2026

The National Bank of Kazakhstan decided to keep the base rate at 18.0% amid faster-than-expected economic growth and high inflation (12.3% in 2025 as a whole and 0.9% m-o-m in December), staying well above the medium-term target. The NBK’s chairperson quoted 6.5% GDP growth in 2025, i.e., the sam...

Kast's Cabinet
CHILE · In Brief · 22 Jan 2026

On Wednesday José Antonio Kast has presented his first cabinet. Clearly it is a team designed not so much with politics in mind, but aimed at meeting the short-term policy objectives that the president-elect has announced. Even though the ideological shift will be evident, the question is whether...

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