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Iran War Days 24–25: Trump claims talks with Iran; more tankers transit Hormuz
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 24 Mar 2026 · 1 response

Highlights Trump backed away from plans to bomb power plants and said talks are underway, causing oil to drop by $15. Iranian sources have been more circumspect about talks, but it appears as if Pakistan may host a meeting. In a worrying development, there was a strike on the grounds of the Bushe...

Fuel Prices Increase
CHILE · In Brief · 24 Mar 2026

Yesterday, the government announced measures that will take effect this Thursday, March 26, increasing gasoline prices at the pump by 34% and diesel prices by 70%. The stated objective is to prevent a short-term decline in fiscal revenues resulting from the reduction in the specific fuel tax unde...

No surprise at today's Monetary Council: the base rate remains at 6.25%
HUNGARY · In Brief · 24 Mar 2026

The MNB base rate was kept unchanged at today's monthly rate-setting meeting, in line with expectation. For sure, we know that the pricing of forward contracts suggested that a rate increase was expected by the market, but the fact remains that analysts, including us, had been forecasting no chan...

A government in a hurry; an economy in a daze
CHILE · Report · 24 Mar 2026

Growth close to its potential rate and a nearly balanced current account suggest that the Chilean economy is operating broadly in equilibrium. GDP rose 2.5% in 2025, above the preliminary 2.3% growth indicated by the Monthly Index of Economic Activity (IMACEC). The upside surprise was largely exp...

Russian macro: Rising oil prices will help the budget but won't boost the economy
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 24 Mar 2026

As global markets are still enjoying various kinds of teeter-totter moves—mainly driven by regular war escalation/de-escalation rumors—fundamental economic factors remain either largely intact or are evolving much more gradually. As it is still widely believed that the Russian budget gets the bul...

Upcoming webinar - Hungary elections 2026: Polls, risks and macro outlook
HUNGARY · Report · 24 Mar 2026

Date: 25 Mar 2026 Time: 10:00 AM Eastern Time As Hungary's parliamentary elections approach, what are the key nuances of the system? Where are the polls pointing? How are key economic features such as growth and inflation performing and what impact could they have on the electorate? What risk...

Economics: Employment growth at the start of 2026 remains weak despite a slight uptick in economic activity
MEXICO · Report · 24 Mar 2026

The total employed population in Mexico as of January 2026 saw weak growth of 0.4% YoY, after remaining at low growth rates throughout 2025, when it increased by an average of 0.7%. While last year the weakening of employment was in line with the overall stagnation of the economy, in January 2026...

Justice Mendonça has ordered Alcolumbre to extend the INSS CPMI, Paraná Governor Ratinho Júnior has withdrawn from the presidential race, and the TSE is set to rule on the case against Rio Governor Cláudio Castro
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Mar 2026

Supreme Federal Court (STF) Justice André Mendonça has ordered Senate President Davi Alcolumbre (União-AP) to extend the INSS Joint Parliamentary Committee of Inquiry (CPMI). The committee had originally been scheduled to conclude on March 28. Paraná Governor Ratinho Júnior (PSD) has withdrawn fr...

Broad unemployment rises due to war-related disruptions, including school closures and business shutdown
ISRAEL · In Brief · 24 Mar 2026

Early data point to the economic impact of the war in Israel.  Yesterday, the CBS published labor market data for February. According to the CBS, the February survey partly covers the first week of March, reflecting the initial impact of the war, including business closures and workers placed on ...

Politics: New Electoral Reform proposal—what is President Sheinbaum's "Plan B" about?
MEXICO · Report · 23 Mar 2026

Following the rejection of President Sheinbaum’s initial constitutional reform on electoral matters—opposed by her allies PT and PVEM, who feared severe losses in funding and congressional seats—she submitted “Plan B” to the Senate last week. This more limited proposal seeks to “make democracy ch...

Truckers risk on the radar and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Mar 2026

The Office of the Prosecutor General (PGR) may issue a position on a request for house arrest for former President Jair Bolsonaro. The PSD is expected to define its presidential candidate. On Friday, Confaz will discuss reducing the ICMS tax on diesel imports. This is the final week of activity f...

Facing the US, Colombia and Iran
ECUADOR · Report · 23 Mar 2026

Ever since the beginning of this year, Ecuador's external sector has been the epicenter of both good news and difficult news. In the good news, as of March 13 the government has a TRA (Trade Reconciliation Agreement) with the United States that could bring new revenues of approximately $1200 mill...

Fiscal impact of the oil shock
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 23 Mar 2026

The increase in oil prices triggered by the conflict in Iran has significant fiscal repercussions for Brazil, given the weight of the sector in the economy. The revenue impacts occur mainly through royalties and special participation charges on oil exploration, through corporate taxes on the sect...

Dominican government reiterates readiness to face the impact of the war with Iran, while warning that sacrifices will be necessary
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 23 Mar 2026 · 1 response

Yesterday, President Luis Abinader addressed the nation to reiterate the main points discussed at the Council of Government meeting on March 19. He noted that the war with Iran represents a significant external shock for the Dominican economy, given that the country is a net importer of energy. I...

The PGR is expected to issue an opinion on Bolsonaro’s request for house arrest, this is the final week of activity for the INSS CPMI, and the PSD may select its presidential pre-candidate tomorrow
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Mar 2026

Justice Alexandre de Moraes of the Supreme Federal Court (STF) requested on Friday that the Office of the Prosecutor General (PGR) issue an opinion on the request for house arrest filed by former President Jair Bolsonaro’s legal team. The justice did not set a deadline for the PGR’s response, whi...

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