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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Interest rate review: Bank of Israel seen holding rates tomorrow, despite our view that there is room for further easing
ISRAEL · In Brief · 04 Jan 2026

The Bank of Israel is scheduled to announce its monetary-policy decision for February tomorrow. The near-market consensus is that the policy rate will remain unchanged, reflecting the Bank of Israel’s concerns over a still-tight labor market (with unemployment at around 3%), the risk of pent-up d...

An econ-only start to the New Year
TURKEY · Report · 04 Jan 2026

As our politics author is dealing with a nasty flu, this is an econ-only weekly. He will provide his update in the next few days. Growth indicators that are now available for the full fourth quarter of last year – namely, manufacturing sector PMI and confidence indices – show tangible improvem...

New year started with delivery of known fiscal campaign promises
HUNGARY · In Brief · 03 Jan 2026

A Happy New Year to all Readers!Just for the files, all the fiscal campaign measures promised by Fidesz with introduction at the start of 2026 have been indeed duly delivered, as shown by our standard table below:Sources: own compilation and estimates, based mainly on data from the Economy Minist...

GULF WEEKLY: Bahrain announces fiscal reforms, Oman projects small deficits until 2030, South Yemen clashes continue
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 02 Jan 2026

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Clashes in Yemen between UAE and Saudi-backed forces continued today. * Saudi Arabia’s current account deficit continued for a fifth quarter in Q3, narrowing to -2.6% of GDP. * Aramco reduced diesel subsidies, hiking the ...

Zelenskiy Appoints Head of Military Intelligence as Chief of Staff
UKRAINE · In Brief · 02 Jan 2026

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy announced today that he has proposed General Kyryl Budanov, head of military intelligence, to take the post of his Chief of Staff, replacing the controversial Andriy Yermak. Budanov is very popular among Ukrainians due to his effectiveness against Russian forces. He ...

Yemen conflict strains UAE-Saudi relations: events, outlook and implications
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 02 Jan 2026

* Saudi Arabia demanded that UAE-backed South Yemen separatists withdraw from the east. * It launched airstrikes on STC positions and on a military shipment from the UAE. * The UAE’s decision to withdraw its counterterrorism forces from Yemen may de-escalate bilateral tensions. * However, the ...

CIS Essential Politics: December 15-31
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 31 Dec 2025

- Trump speaks with Putin and Zelensky. - Russia claims Ukraine attempted a drone strike on Putin’s residence. - Japan holds first-ever heads-of-state summit with Central Asian leaders. - NABU launches anti-corruption raid on Ukrainian parliament.

Gasoline price to drop 3.3% on January 1st, supporting continued monetary easing
ISRAEL · In Brief · 30 Dec 2025

Starting January 1st, the price of gasoline in Israel will be reduced to NIS 6.85 per liter. The decline reflects a 10.76% drop in global oil prices and a 2.26% appreciation in the shekel-dollar exchange rate. The 3.66% decline in fuel prices points to a particularly low CPI reading in January, i...

A rare equilibrium
CHILE · Report · 30 Dec 2025

With the monetary policy rate now at 4.5%, a level we consider broadly neutral, indicators point to an economy operating close to equilibrium. The main risks remain external, and recent data are consistent with this view. Beyond monthly volatility, activity appears to be at a stable but sluggish ...

Notes from Beijing and Hong Kong
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 30 Dec 2025

I just returned from a two week trip to Hong Kong and Beijing, giving a speech to the American Chamber of Commerce in Beijing, and meeting with property developers and other businesses. Here are a few random thoughts from the trip, including on the overall economy, the property market and activit...

IMF on the Philippines: Cautious Optimism, Hard Constraints
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 30 Dec 2025

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) completed its Article IV mission to the Philippines from mid-September to 1 October 2025, with the Executive Board concluding the consultation on 24 November 2025. The staff report, released on 15 December with the consent of Philippine authorities, reflects ...

Extravagant minimum wage increase and its consequences
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 30 Dec 2025 · 2 responses

President Petro just announced a 23% increase in the minimum wage (MW) for 2026, setting it at COP $2 million including the compulsory transportation allowance. When all the non-wage costs are taken into account, the gross cost of an employee earning one minimum wage will be around COP 2.8 millio...

Increasing FDI into financial firms
INDIA · Report · 29 Dec 2025

While aggregate Net Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) data suggests a period of moderation—characterized by net outflows in the latter part of the year and a distinct trend in the manufacturing sector—the financial services landscape has diverged from this broader narrative. We examine the increase...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 24 Dec 2025

Dec 11 Energy Ministry: Currently Kazakhstan does not see an alternative to CPC for oil supplies, but will develop additional routes in the future. Energy Ministry: Attacks on the CPC have led to losses in Kazakhstan's oil production of about 480K tons, but the plan for 2025 will be fulfilled. De...

Economics: Third-quarter aggregate demand figures reflect weak private consumption and a deep contraction in fixed investment
MEXICO · Report · 23 Dec 2025

On Friday, December 19, the aggregate supply and demand figures for the third quarter of 2025 were released. They show that aggregate demand (equal to supply) grew by 1.0% YoY according to seasonally adjusted figures and accumulated an increase of 0.7% YoY in the first nine months of the year. ...

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