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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Review of the economy: sustained difficulties with growth
INDIA · Report · 24 Mar 2025

We assemble an array of methods to obtain insights into the state of the economy. These suggest sustained difficulties with growth in the post-pandemic period. Revenue growth for large firms is near zero in real terms. Goods export growth is near zero when expressed in nominal USD. Services ex...

Monetary Council tomorrow: no rate change expected
HUNGARY · In Brief · 24 Mar 2025

This will be the first regular monthly rate-setting meeting chaired by Mr. Varga. In addition, it will be the one to discuss the Q1 inflation report. So, a really important event to watch anyway.Importantly, analysts are unanimously predicting no rate change from 6.5%, according to Portfolio.hu's...

2025 Federal Budget approved, Lula visits Japan and Vietnam to boost strategic trade deals, and the STF to review coup attempt charges
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Mar 2025

The Federal Budget for 2025 was finally approved. The final version of the text is being prepared so it can be sent for presidential approval. According to the Constitution, the president has 15 working days to sanction the budget after receiving the text. President Lula is currently on an offici...

Israel faces institutional confrontation as government moves against Attorney General and Shin Bet Chief
ISRAEL · In Brief · 23 Mar 2025

The Israeli government unanimously passed a resolution expressing no confidence in Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara—a move widely seen as paving the way for her dismissal. In response, Baharav-Miara sent a letter to the cabinet ministers, accusing them of seeking political loyalty rather than ...

The day the earth stood still
TURKEY · Report · 23 Mar 2025

On Sunday, CHP mayor Imamoglu and 92 “accomplices” were found guilty of fraud and/or supporting terror organizations, with Imamoglu being sent to Silivri Correctional Facility. While it is not certain, the politics author (PA) takes a bet that the mayor will be soon replaced by a government-appoi...

Pressure points on China from the Trump Administration
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 21 Mar 2025

Trump 1.0 and Trump 2.0 have or may impose a variety of tariffs. We have some sense of the macroeconomic impact on China. But what about the domestic political pressure points? We know that China has deliberately targeted its tariffs heavily on red states to weaken Trump’s base. Is there likely t...

GULF WEEKLY: Saudi Arabia upgraded, new OPEC+ “compensation” cuts, Qatar mediates Congo-Rwanda, Israel restarts Gaza war
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 21 Mar 2025

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC+ pledged 128m barrels in compensatory cuts, offsetting two months of tapering. * Oman's pledges were the largest in the GCC, in relative terms, and its 2025 output will be flat. * S&P upgraded Saudi Arabia to A+ due ...

Revenue collection improves in 2M25, but more improvement is required
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 21 Mar 2025

The Ministry of Finance published February budget statistics, and the numbers looked comparatively better than in 2M24. However, more action is required to avoid unnecessary FX interventions associated with various schemes to raise additional revenues. As in 2M25, the USD/KZT was close to 515, wh...

The election campaign has started: major social policy measures announced
HUNGARY · Report · 21 Mar 2025

European gas prices have corrected substantially in recent weeks, more on the warming weather than on peace prospects. We still see no realistic prospect for the restart of the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine. Hungary finished the winter period with higher-than-usual gas reserves, and it c...

Congress approves 2025 budget, Lula travels to Japan and Vietnam to boost trade and strategic partnerships, and STF is set to rule on Bolsonaro coup charges
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Mar 2025

The National Congress has finally approved the 2025 Annual Budget Law (LOA). The text is the substitute bill bySenator Ângelo Coronel (PSD-BA), the rapporteur of the matter. The budget allocates approximately R$ 50 billion in congressional amendments. This Saturday, President Lula will travel to ...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: FDI in Georgia underwhelms in 2024
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 21 Mar 2025

Last week the Georgian statistical office reported the much awaited full-year (2024) data on FDI. Similar to the tourist numbers I discussed earlier, foreign direct investment has been the subject of intense discussions and speculation over the course of last year as the government and the opposi...

An expected pause in interest rate cuts by the SA Reserve Bank
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 21 Mar 2025

The South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) announced that it is leaving the benchmark interest rate unchanged following three consecutive cuts. We had largely expected this decision as we noted following the January decision. The repurchase (repo) rate, hence, remains...

Israel’s construction market in Q4: strong recovery but completions remained subdued; financing risks
ISRAEL · In Brief · 20 Mar 2025

Israel’s construction sector and housing prices have long occupied center stage in Israel’s economic discussions. The persistent shortage of Palestinian workers due to the war has caused delays and forced temporary shutdown of several construction sites, contributing to a rise in housing prices a...

Cards close to the chest
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 20 Mar 2025

As expected, the Copom raised the Selic target rate from 13.25% to 14.25% per year, citing the adverse inflation scenario, reflected in still-elevated projections. Regarding its next moves, the Committee signaled its intention—should the expected scenario materialize—to persist with the monetary ...

On market volatility and CBRT actions: some preliminary reactions
TURKEY · In Brief · 20 Mar 2025

After yesterday’s carnage in Turkish markets that reportedly led to some $10-$15 billion loss in reserves by some counts (driven mostly by foreign investor outflows, we hear), the CBRT has taken a number of actions today, which included raising the O/N lending rate by 200 bps to 46% from 44% prev...

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