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Mexico Macro Monitor: In February 2025, sales services stagnated compared to the previous month, though they continued to post a strong year-over-year growth.
MEXICO · In Brief · 23 Apr 2025

In February 2025, revenues (sales) of private non-financial service providers increased by 5.8% compared to the same month last year but remained unchanged from January (seasonally adjusted figures). This suggests that service sales continue to be an important driver of consumption and economic a...

Mexico Macro Monitor: In February 2025, retail sales continued to grow, though at a slower pace compared to January. Meanwhile, wholesale sales kept declining.
MEXICO · In Brief · 23 Apr 2025

In February 2025, retail sales maintained the growth observed in the previous month, albeit at a slower pace: They rose 1.7% year-over-year (compared to 2.7% in January) and 0.2% month-over-month (seasonally adjusted figures). As a result, the first two months of 2025 saw a cumulative annual incr...

Kazakhstan macro: Economic growth reportedly accelerates as tax collection improves
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 23 Apr 2025

The Bureau of National Statistics reported that the short-term indicator (a monthly proxy of combined economic activity in industry, agriculture, construction, trade, transportation/warehousing, and IT/communications) grew by 8.3% y-o-y in 1Q25. In March alone, its y-o-y growth was even higher (9...

Pedro Lucas declined Lula’s ministerial invitation, Lula will formally present the Public Security PEC today, and the Joint Committee on payroll-deductible loans for workers should be installed today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Apr 2025

The leader of União Brasil in the Lower House, Pedro Lucas (MA), has declined President Lula’s invitation to head the Ministry of Communications. Pedro Lucas’s refusal, in a way, weakens Senate President Alcolumbre, who coordinated the proposed reshuffle. Today President Lula will formally presen...

The battle for control of the political agenda and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Apr 2025

Despite the Tiradentes holiday (April 21), a busy week is expected in Congress. President of the House, Hugo Motta (Republicanos-PB), is in talks with congressional leaders about the Amnesty Bill. The União Brasil caucus is debating the appointment of its leader, Pedro Lucas (MA), to the Ministry...

Exports: macro vs micro
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 22 Apr 2025

The WTO projects a 0.2 % drop in global trade volume in 2025, and the decline could be larger if reciprocal tariffs materialize—prompting downward revisions to Brazil’s export outlook. In addition, a slowing world economy is likely to push many commodity prices lower, as seen in recent weeks. The...

Past Liberation Day: a few changes to growth and inflation forecasts
HUNGARY · Forecast · 22 Apr 2025

The world has changed quite a bit since we published our previous forecast in January, because of Mr. Trump’s appearance on the scene, and especially his latest aggressive trade policy measures. The latter are pushing the global economy towards lower growth but also lower energy prices, both extr...

The opposition submitted the urgent status request for the Amnesty Bill, Pedro Lucas will meet with his party regarding his ministerial appointment, and the STF will decide on the PGR charges against Bolsonaro
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Apr 2025

The President of the House, Hugo Motta (Republicanos-PB), will meet with party leaders to discuss the Amnesty Bill. Last week, the opposition secured the support of 264 votes for the urgent status request to be brought to the floor. Federal Deputy and União Brasil leader in the House, Pedro Lucas...

More mixed data in March
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 21 Apr 2025

Special points to highlight in this report: - The property sector in top-tier cities may be close to bottoming out, although this is still far from the case in the rest of China. - Growth in March came in much stronger than expected, and drove first-quarter growth also above expectations,...

Bahceli scenarios, CBRT reserves
TURKEY · Report · 20 Apr 2025 · 1 response

Political upheaval in Turkey is in full swing, with strong indications that President Erdogan has not given up on his objective of appointing trustees to Istanbul Municipality and CHP. The surprise is MHP leader Bahceli’s public objections to Erdogan’s plans. In the past, such public rebukes by B...

Mineral deal memorandum: agreement to talk about talks
UKRAINE · In Brief · 18 Apr 2025

Ukrainian authorities have announced the online signing of a Memorandum of Intent for a potential mineral deal with the U.S. The document is provided below. Apparently, officials needed something to show at least nominal progress—and this memorandum of intent, essentially a declaration to keep ta...

GULF WEEKLY: US-Iran nuclear talks begin, Oman and Europe plan hydrogen corridor, Bahraini parliament calls for tariffs on US
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 17 Apr 2025 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil recovered to a two-week high of $67, and OPEC+ announced revised compensation cuts. * OPEC and the IEA both revised down both oil demand and supply forecasts due to US policies. * US-Iran nuclear talks in Oman seemed ...

Requiem for the fiscal framework
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 17 Apr 2025

The federal government has sent the Budget Guidelines Bill (PLDO) for 2026 to Congress, outlining the broad contours of next year’s budget, as well as projecting public accounts through the middle of the next administration, in 2029.

Growth decline deepens
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Forecast · 17 Apr 2025

February growth data confirms that the Dominican economy has entered a low-growth period. In February, estimated growth reached just 0.7% compared with February 2024. This adds to January's growth of only 2.2%, bringing cumulative growth for January and February to 1.5%. Once again the sharp decl...

NBU holds prime rate unchanged at 15.5% amid eased FX pressure
UKRAINE · In Brief · 17 Apr 2025

The NBU Board left the prime rate unchanged at 15.5% at today’s meeting, contrary to our expectations. Despite inflation accelerating in March to +1.5% m/m and +14.6% y/y, the NBU noted it sees some signs of easing, though it acknowledged that inflationary expectations remain high. Most likely, t...

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