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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Large 2024 deficit (7.35% of GDP) and commitment of MEF to reduce it to less than the 4.0% ceiling of the Fiscal Law
PANAMA · In Brief · 20 Feb 2025

Today, Minister Chapman presented the fiscal situation for the end of 2024 and perspectives for 2025. The deficit of the NFPS of 7.35% in 2024, above our estimate of 6.2% and above the 2.0% that the Fiscal Law established in the 2020 revision by Minister Alexander. The explanation is twofold: und...

The Senate installed its permanent committees, the government breathed a sigh of relief with the indictment of Bolsonaro, and Lula said there is no timeline for his cabinet reshuffle
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Feb 2025

The Federal Senate installed its permanent committees on Wednesday (February 19), electing their presidents. The government secured a major victory by placing allies in the presidencies of the CCJ and CAE. The government breathed a sigh of relief with the charges filed by the Prosecutor General’s...

No breakthrough in the "Year of Breakthroughs". Is there disinflation?
POLAND · In Brief · 19 Feb 2025 · 1 response

Governments ambitious (?) investment plans This text borrows from an article that Jan Hagemejer published with CASE's Andrzej Robaszewski on Monday in a Polish leading newspaper – Rzeczpospolita. Introduction On February 10, 2025, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk unveiled an economic plan titled...

Inflation jumped in January
HUNGARY · Report · 19 Feb 2025

CPI-inflation started the year with a big upward adjustment in January, on a cyclical pickup of agricultural prices, the decent strength of consumer demand and the impact of the weak forint on import prices. The size of this change genuinely surprised the MNB and analysts, even though its directi...

South Africa’s economic potential improves, but emerging headwinds amid new geopolitical dynamics could pose a risk
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 19 Feb 2025

• Bonds: The South African bond market in 2024 was marked by heightened volatility, reflecting both domestic economic conditions and global financial pressures. As such, the year saw substantial fluctuations in net bond purchases. Yet, the successful formation of the Government of National Unity ...

Bolsonaro has been indicted by the PGR for attempting a coup d’état, a recent poll shows that the polarization between Lula and Bolsonaro continues, and legislative activities will remain slow until after Carnival
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Feb 2025

Former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) has been indicted by the Prosecutor General's Office (PGR) for attempting a coup d'état after the 2022 elections. Bolsonaro has also been charged with the crimes of violent abolition of the Democratic Rule of Law and criminal organization. A poll published yes...

What does Xi’s meeting with entrepreneurs signal for the private sector?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 19 Feb 2025

Special points to highlight in this report: - Economic data releases in China tend to be skimpy in the first two months of every year, mainly because the floating Spring Festival date (from late January to mid-February) distorts economic activity and makes year-on-year and month-on-month comp...

Bi-weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 19 Feb 2025

Feb 6 Prime minister: Kazakhstan gives priority to localization of production and technology transfer when choosing vendors for nuclear power plant construction. Feb 7 Fitch: The agency confirms the QazaqGaz rating at BB+ with a "stable" outlook. NBK: Demand for gold bars from private individuals...

Revised 2023-2024 macro data show steady growth, but things could change this year
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 18 Feb 2025

According to Rosstat’s flash estimate, the country’s GDP grew by 4.1% and reached R200,039.5 bln, implying it climbed to $2,155 bln in dollar terms. Both the nominal figure and the growth rate appeared slightly higher than we anticipated—not least due to revisions of the historical data. We expec...

Election campaign heats up; economy grew 3.2% in 2024; new finance minister appointed; BCRP extends pause
PERU · Report · 18 Feb 2025 · 1 response

In this report, we discuss indications that the election campaign will be brought forward; improved economic performance, resulting in real GDP advancing 4.9% in December and 3.3% in full-year 2024; the appointment of José Salardi as Economy and Finance Minister; and the decision by the BCRP’s Bo...

Economics: Year-end results confirm the latest episode in the ongoing deterioration of public finances, with no end in sight
MEXICO · Report · 18 Feb 2025 · 1 response

A profound deterioration of public finances played out in 2024, as we had anticipated as far back as when we analyzed the economic package projected for last calendar year that was published in September 2023. The year 2024 brought troubling trends in revenue, as well as in the degree of growth a...

Actions out of touch with reality and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Feb 2025

Negotiations over the Ministerial Reform are ongoing. In both the Lower House and the Senate, leaders are working toward an agreement on the leadership of standing committees, which are expected to be installed after Carnaval. President Lula may meet with leaders of the agency Ibama to discuss oi...

Uncertainty and weak consumption slow inflation
VENEZUELA · Report · 18 Feb 2025 · 1 response

In January, the monthly inflation rate declined to 9 percent from its December 2024 rate of 13 percent. Seasonal factors, including a slow post-holiday restart of economic activity, weak sales, and strong tax payments, were drivers of this decline. An additional driver was the narrowing of the ex...

Spring shoots in autumn?
CHILE · Report · 18 Feb 2025 · 1 response

The economy appears to be gaining momentum. Three consecutive months of positive variation in the IMACEC marks a clear shift away from a prolonged period of stagnation, and supports the 2% growth being forecast for 2025. The economy now appears poised to expand at a pace closer to its potential. ...

Politics: Sheinbaum concentrates decision making in a strong, all-powerful presidency
MEXICO · Report · 18 Feb 2025 · 1 response

While President Claudia Sheinbaum has succeeded in rallying broad support in response to Donald Trump’s threats on tariffs, migration, and national sovereignty, the fact remains that her policies and orientation represent a continuity with AMLO’s unipersonal style of governing. Her decisions, in ...

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