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Political risk eases with the appointment of President Jeri; economy surprises on the positive side; the BCRP’s policy dilemma
PERU · Report · 25 Nov 2025

In this report we offer an update on politics, the economy and markets. We first discuss how political risk has remained muted, despite the impeachment of former president Dina Boluarte, and Congress’s naming of José Jerí as interim president, while extending its own term through July 28th. Next,...

The government faces a turbulent relationship with Congress, Bolsonaro has decided not to file a second round of appeals, and the Senate will hear from Central Bank President Galípolo
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Nov 2025

At a moment when the government is trying to push through a series of key year-end measures, political coordination inside the Planalto Palace is facing turbulence. House President Hugo Motta (Republicanos–PB) publicly broke with the Workers’ Party floor leader, Lindbergh Farias. Former President...

Republican budget tax revenues remain well behind the plan in 10M25
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 25 Nov 2025

The Ministry of Finance has not yet published a full set of budgetary statistics for 10M25 and at the time of writing this note just released a brief note with several key republican budget numbers. According to the published text, total revenues (including tax revenues, non-tax revenues, incomes...

S&P downgrades BAHRAIN due to rising debt, but upgrades KUWAIT for the same reason
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 25 Nov 2025

S&P took two opposite rating actions on Friday. It downgraded Bahrain to a record low of B, the lowest in the GCC by far. At the same time, it upgraded Kuwait back to its 2021 level of AA-. In 2006, around the time I first visited the Gulf, Bahrain was only one notch below Kuwait (A- vs. A), but ...

Economics: With the heyday of robust commodity prices long past, Mexico's agriculture struggles amid improvised, dysfunctional policies
MEXICO · Report · 24 Nov 2025

The government’s response to agriculture over the past year traverses an arc similar to other areas of government policy, including energy, health, education, and communications infrastructure. This response is characterized by strategies directly inherited from the previous administration along...

Security is likely to remain a priority in Congress and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Nov 2025

President Lula will sign the bill that grants an income tax exemption for those earning up to R$ 5,000 per month. The Senate’s Economic Affairs Committee may vote on a bill regulating bets and fintechs. The National Congress meets to review presidential vetoes, including those related to environm...

Politics: Anti-government protests fueled by discontented youth pose risks for the 4T and the Sheinbaum government
MEXICO · Report · 24 Nov 2025

A large demonstration on Saturday, November 15 against President Claudia Sheinbaum’s government may be a prelude to a major political realignment. The catalyst for the protest was the November 1 killing of Uruapan, Michoacán Mayor Carlos Manzo, a fierce critic of Sheinbaum’s security policy, whic...

Puzzle of the month: Is Hungary exempt and protected?
HUNGARY · Report · 24 Nov 2025

Energy remains a key policy concern. On one hand, gas and oil import prices have fallen non-seasonally in recent weeks, generating a substantial terms-of-trade gain and invaluable support for the balance of payments. On the other hand, new US sanctions against leading Russian energy companies and...

The Supreme Court will review Bolsonaro’s pretrial detention, Lula’s appointee to the Supreme Court begins meetings with senators, and the Senate hears from Galípolo about the Banco Master case
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Nov 2025

The First Panel of the Supreme Court is reviewing Bolsonaro’s pretrial detention. Justice Alexandre de Moraes ordered his arrest last Saturday for attempting to tamper with his electronic ankle monitor, even citing a risk of flight. This week, the Attorney General—appointed to fill the Supreme Co...

Under pressure
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 24 Nov 2025

The unemployment rate has remained at its historical low in recent months, suggesting that the labor market is still quite tight. However, cooling signs have begun to emerge. When adjusting for movements in the participation rate, an increase in unemployment at the margin becomes apparent. We exp...

Twenty days that will shake Indian trade policy
INDIA · Report · 24 Nov 2025

The US-India economic relationship is currently navigating its most precarious phase in decades. Following the imposition of a cumulative 50% tariff regime on Indian goods in mid-2025, the bilateral engagement has moved behind closed doors, where negotiators have reportedly constructed a framewor...

Bank of Israel rate decision - high likelihood of a cut today
ISRAEL · In Brief · 24 Nov 2025

The Bank of Israel is widely expected to cut rates today for the first time since January 2024, bringing the policy rate from 4.50% to 4.25%. Market pricing implies a 70%-75% probability of a rate cut at today’s meeting. The key driver is the decline in inflation: Headline CPI stands at 2.5% y/y ...

IMF says a tighter stance is called for
TURKEY · Report · 23 Nov 2025

We provide a very quick rundown of last week’s econ data releases and share a few thoughts on the concluding statement of the recent IMF Article IV consultation mission. Our politics author will share his contribution in the next day or two. In a nutshell, consumer confidence is holding up, em...

GULF WEEKLY: MBS’s art of the deal in DC, UAE airlines order 322 planes, Oman’s deficit narrows, UN authorizes Gaza plan
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 21 Nov 2025 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent crude dropped to $62, its lowest in a month, amid a renewed US effort for a Ukraine deal. * Stellantis is considering car manufacturing in KSA. FDI licenses increased by 84% y/y in Q3. * MBS’s visit to the US was se...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Local ballot, national message—what Vagharshapat says about Armenia's 2026 Parliamentary Elections
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 21 Nov 2025

This week I complete my trilogy on the political and geopolitical backdrop in the South Caucasus by looking at the results from the important local elections in Armenia's Vagharshapat (the 5th largest city in the country). I use the results to test my early-month theory (and projection) about how...

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