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Interest rates, U.S.-Iran negotiations, and markets in focus: macroeconomic and geopolitical developments - Weekly report, March 27, 2026
ISRAEL · Report · 27 Mar 2026

Headlines: - Israeli markets weakened sharply this week, driven by growing concerns over a potential agreement with Iran. The sell-off intensified today (Friday), with the TA-90 falling by 2.4% and the TA-125 by 3.5%, bringing weekly declines to 5.9% and 5.2%, respectively, and erasing all ga...

The STF overturned Justice Mendonça’s decision to extend the INSS CPMI, the Confaz should meet today to discuss fuel pricing, and the party-switching window ends on April 3
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Mar 2026

By eight votes to two, the Supreme Federal Court (STF) overturned the single-justice ruling by Justice André Mendonça that had extended the work of the joint congressional inquiry committee (CPMI) on the INSS. Justice Flávio Dino opened the dissenting opinion, arguing that the matter falls within...

Topic of the week - 1Q2026 CCA Slide deck
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 27 Mar 2026

The quarterly slide deck for the Caucasus and Central Asia is a 209-slide detailed description of the economic status quo in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan as of the first quarter of the year. It covers various topics, including growth, economic structure, inf...

Growth engine losing power
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 27 Mar 2026

Guatemala enters 2026–2027 with strong macroeconomic fundamentals, but moderating growth momentum. In 2025, GDP expanded by 4.1%, supported by resilient domestic demand, strong remittances ($25.5 billion), improved investment (particularly in construction) and strong services performance. But con...

An expected pause in interest rate cuts by the SA Reserve Bank
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 26 Mar 2026

The South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) announced that it is leaving the benchmark interest rate unchanged following another halt in January 2026. As we have highlighted in recent reports, the likelihood of the Reserve Bank cutting rates has declined considerably, ...

The STF established criteria for the payment of perks to judges, the Court will also review Justice Mendonça’s decision to extend the INSS CPMI, and the Confaz should meet today to discuss a reduction in the ICMS on diesel
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Mar 2026

Yesterday, the Supreme Federal Court (STF) established criteria for the payment of indemnity allowances—commonly referred to as “perks”—to judges and members of the Public Prosecutor’s Office. Certain indemnity payments were authorized up to a limit of 35% of the constitutional salary cap, which ...

Elections 2026: Polls, risks and macro outlook - Slide presentation and webinar replay
HUNGARY · Presentation · 26 Mar 2026

As Hungary's parliamentary elections approach, what are the key nuances of the system? Where are the polls pointing? How are key economic features such as growth and inflation performing and what impact could they have on the electorate? What risks are associated with the election? What would cha...

Industrial production shrinks, economic statistics remain puzzling
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 26 Mar 2026

Industrial production shrinks, economic statistics remain puzzlingRosstat reported that in 2M26, industrial production fell by 0.8% y-o-y. However, the chart, presented by Rosstat just below this announcement, shows a clear y-o-y growth of about 4% at least. Indeed, y-o-y industrial growth number...

Peru: The left sneaks into the presidential elections
PERU · In Brief · 25 Mar 2026 · 1 response

This morning Ipsos published its March 22nd poll and simulation. This poll was performed before the presidential debates taking place this week. Ipsos is the only pollster that simulates the presidential election using confidential ballots and we believe is the most accurate. The poll shows that ...

The Middle East conflict: a catalyst for policy recalibration in Argentina?
ARGENTINA · Report · 25 Mar 2026

The Middle East conflict represents a double-edged sword for Argentina. While it strengthens the external sector through improved terms of trade, it also exacerbates inflationary pressures and financial vulnerabilities. This combination may ultimately force a reassessment of the current policy mi...

The STF is set to review Justice Mendonça’s decision to extend the INSS CPMI, Hugo Motta outlined the current priorities of the Lower House, and the TSE declared former Rio Governor Cláudio Castro ineligible
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Mar 2026

The full bench of the Supreme Federal Court (STF) is set to review tomorrow an injunction granted by Justice André Mendonça extending the INSS Joint Parliamentary Committee of Inquiry (CPMI). The committee was initially scheduled to conclude on March 28. The President of the Lower House, Hugo Mot...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 25 Mar 2026

Mar 12 Energy Ministry: The Minister instructed to strengthen the protection of strategic facilities in the oil and gas sector KMG: Mr Khasenov, CEO of KMG, called on Tengizchevroil company to bring Tengiz oil field to full capacity as soon as possible Mar 13 Government: Kazakhstan intends to inc...

Iran War Days 24–25: Trump claims talks with Iran; more tankers transit Hormuz
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 24 Mar 2026 · 1 response

Highlights Trump backed away from plans to bomb power plants and said talks are underway, causing oil to drop by $15. Iranian sources have been more circumspect about talks, but it appears as if Pakistan may host a meeting. In a worrying development, there was a strike on the grounds of the Bushe...

Fuel Prices Increase
CHILE · In Brief · 24 Mar 2026

Yesterday, the government announced measures that will take effect this Thursday, March 26, increasing gasoline prices at the pump by 34% and diesel prices by 70%. The stated objective is to prevent a short-term decline in fiscal revenues resulting from the reduction in the specific fuel tax unde...

No surprise at today's Monetary Council: the base rate remains at 6.25%
HUNGARY · In Brief · 24 Mar 2026

The MNB base rate was kept unchanged at today's monthly rate-setting meeting, in line with expectation. For sure, we know that the pricing of forward contracts suggested that a rate increase was expected by the market, but the fact remains that analysts, including us, had been forecasting no chan...

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