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CIS Essential Politics: December 15-31
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 31 Dec 2025

- Trump speaks with Putin and Zelensky. - Russia claims Ukraine attempted a drone strike on Putin’s residence. - Japan holds first-ever heads-of-state summit with Central Asian leaders. - NABU launches anti-corruption raid on Ukrainian parliament.

Gasoline price to drop 3.3% on January 1st, supporting continued monetary easing
ISRAEL · In Brief · 30 Dec 2025

Starting January 1st, the price of gasoline in Israel will be reduced to NIS 6.85 per liter. The decline reflects a 10.76% drop in global oil prices and a 2.26% appreciation in the shekel-dollar exchange rate. The 3.66% decline in fuel prices points to a particularly low CPI reading in January, i...

A rare equilibrium
CHILE · Report · 30 Dec 2025

With the monetary policy rate now at 4.5%, a level we consider broadly neutral, indicators point to an economy operating close to equilibrium. The main risks remain external, and recent data are consistent with this view. Beyond monthly volatility, activity appears to be at a stable but sluggish ...

Notes from Beijing and Hong Kong
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 30 Dec 2025

I just returned from a two week trip to Hong Kong and Beijing, giving a speech to the American Chamber of Commerce in Beijing, and meeting with property developers and other businesses. Here are a few random thoughts from the trip, including on the overall economy, the property market and activit...

IMF on the Philippines: Cautious Optimism, Hard Constraints
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 30 Dec 2025

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) completed its Article IV mission to the Philippines from mid-September to 1 October 2025, with the Executive Board concluding the consultation on 24 November 2025. The staff report, released on 15 December with the consent of Philippine authorities, reflects ...

Extravagant minimum wage increase and its consequences
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 30 Dec 2025 · 2 responses

President Petro just announced a 23% increase in the minimum wage (MW) for 2026, setting it at COP $2 million including the compulsory transportation allowance. When all the non-wage costs are taken into account, the gross cost of an employee earning one minimum wage will be around COP 2.8 millio...

Increasing FDI into financial firms
INDIA · Report · 29 Dec 2025

While aggregate Net Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) data suggests a period of moderation—characterized by net outflows in the latter part of the year and a distinct trend in the manufacturing sector—the financial services landscape has diverged from this broader narrative. We examine the increase...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 24 Dec 2025

Dec 11 Energy Ministry: Currently Kazakhstan does not see an alternative to CPC for oil supplies, but will develop additional routes in the future. Energy Ministry: Attacks on the CPC have led to losses in Kazakhstan's oil production of about 480K tons, but the plan for 2025 will be fulfilled. De...

Economics: Third-quarter aggregate demand figures reflect weak private consumption and a deep contraction in fixed investment
MEXICO · Report · 23 Dec 2025

On Friday, December 19, the aggregate supply and demand figures for the third quarter of 2025 were released. They show that aggregate demand (equal to supply) grew by 1.0% YoY according to seasonally adjusted figures and accumulated an increase of 0.7% YoY in the first nine months of the year. ...

Election risk in the spotlight; economy to grow by 3.2% in 2025, and 3% in 2026; BCRP likely to extend its policy pause through April
PERU · Report · 23 Dec 2025

In this report, we discuss our most recent forecasts. We first elaborate our political scenarios, and argue that there’s a downside risk in the run-up to first-round national elections in April. We have increased the probability of our low case scenario to 30%, reduced the chance of our base case...

Sharp economic slowdown; health insurance corruption case poses political test for Abinader government
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 23 Dec 2025

The economy is experiencing a marked slowdown in activity, with y/y growth virtually stagnant in October (at 0.2%), and clear signs of labor market cooling. This is unfolding amid rising inflation, primarily explained by supply-side shocks associated with tropical storm Melissa, and concentrated ...

Government advances political inquiry into October 7 as families demand state commission
ISRAEL · In Brief · 22 Dec 2025

Israel’s Ministerial Committee for Legislation approved on Monday a proposed law by MK Ariel Kallner (Likud), backed by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, to establish a political, non-state commission of inquiry into the failures surrounding the October 7 attack and the ensuing war. Under the pr...

Politics: The 2025 balance sheet: a concentration of power, the consolidation of the 4T, and main problems unresolved or getting worse
MEXICO · Report · 22 Dec 2025

With the year 2025 drawing to a close and Claudia Sheinbaum’s first year in office under her belt, this week’s edition of the Political Outlook centers on drawing a balance sheet of the past 12 months. The analysis centers on two levels: a general account of the legislative sessions and governme...

Kazakhstan macro: Tax reform to make intra-budgetary transactions less distortive
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 22 Dec 2025

Recent budget execution statistics show the economy is in good shape, with local tax collection continuing to outperform. Mid-year, the initial 2025 target was revised upward, and by November tax revenues had hit 94.4% of that revised goal. Local budgets, which also get transfers from the republi...

Macroeconomic and geopolitical developments – Weekly report, December 22, 2025
ISRAEL · Report · 22 Dec 2025

Data released over the past week support the view that Israel’s economy is transitioning to a more stable growth phase, with activity expanding at an above-trend pace. Inflation surprised to the downside, easing to 2.4% in November, with underlying measures such as services inflation pointing to ...

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