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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The leader of the Liberal Party filed an urgent status request for the amnesty bill, the PLDO will be submitted today, and a presidential decree was issued today regulating the Full Payment of State Debts Program (Propag)
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Apr 2025

Yesterday, the leader of the Liberal Party (PL), Deputy Sóstenes Cavalcante (RJ), filed an urgent status request for the bill that grants amnesty to those involved in the events of January 8, 2023 (Bill 2858/22). The number of signatures in favor of the urgent status suggests that both the status...

It’s back
VENEZUELA · Report · 15 Apr 2025

We foresee a return to triple-digit annual inflation in 2025 and identify several upside risks to our forecast numbers: U.S. oil sanctions policy, the effect of secondary tariffs to be applied to countries that buy Venezuelan oil, falling oil prices, adjustment measures adopted under the Economic...

Impeachment risk for President Boluarte rises; we expect slowdown to 2.3% in H2; global risks led Central Bank to extend its policy rate pause
PERU · Report · 15 Apr 2025

In this report, we discuss the risk of President Dina Boluarte facing impeachment in the final year of her presidential term; we then discuss recent economic performance, and argue that the economy will decelerate to 2.3% in H2; and finally we discuss the drivers that led the Board of the Banco C...

Economics: Current US tariff schedule significantly impacts Mexican exports and the broader economy
MEXICO · Report · 15 Apr 2025

President Trump’s recent announcement of a 90 day pause on his “reciprocal” tariffs left many countries with a 10% across-the-board rate for that period. Mexico was not included in the list of reciprocal tariffs, a development celebrated by Mexican authorities as an achievement. However, there ar...

More questions than answers in the presidential succession and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Apr 2025

The extended holiday (April 18–21) is expected to slow activity in the Legislative branch. On Tuesday, April 15, the government will send the Budget Guidelines Bill (PLDO) to Congress. The government is also expected to file the Public Security Constitutional Amendment Proposal (PEC). The União B...

Collateral damage
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 14 Apr 2025

Trump’s economic policy is expected to cause a global economic slowdown. Despite the considerable uncertainty regarding the magnitude of this deceleration, it is reasonable to assume that global economic activity will perform below projections made just a few weeks ago. We estimate the impacts of...

2024 GDP growth revised higher, prompting deceleration in 2025
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 14 Apr 2025

Rosstat published the long-awaited revised quarterly GDP statistics for 2022-2024 and the updated 2024 annual growth figure. The latter now stands at 4.3% versus the 4.1% initial flash estimate. It means that in 2024, economic growth reportedly accelerated as the 2023 GDP grew by 4.1%. Seasonally...

The upcoming holidays will reduce legislative activity, the government is expected to submit the PEC on public security tomorrow, and the União Brasil will meet to decide on its new party leader
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Apr 2025

The holidays on Friday, April 18 (Good Friday), and Monday, April 21 (Tiradentes Day), will reduce legislative activity this week. Sessions in the Lower House will be held remotely. This week, the Executive Branch will submit the Constitutional Amendment Proposal (PEC) on public security to the L...

Politics: Sheinbaum unveils a new and better defined Plan Mexico. But is it up to the challenges ahead?
MEXICO · Report · 14 Apr 2025

In response to the slowdown in Mexican economic growth coupled with the ups and downs of Donald Trump’s tariff threats, which have been an emotional roller coaster for business interests and society as a whole, President Claudia Sheinbaum has re-launched and strengthened Plan Mexico, her ambitiou...

Does weak business sentiment portend weak GDP for Q1 2025?
PHILIPPINES · Report · 14 Apr 2025

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP), in its latest monetary policy report, claimed that the Philippines’ economic growth could be just “near the lower bound” of the government’s growth target of 6-8% from 2025 through 2028. We would call this a demonstration of the BSP’s independence and auton...

March CPI in focus this week; 2025 inflation forecast revised lower amid oil price drop
ISRAEL · In Brief · 14 Apr 2025 · 1 response

Israel marked the beginning of Passover this weekend, with 59 hostages still held in Gaza—24 of them presumed alive. Reports over the weekend suggested progress in hostage deal negotiations. On the Iranian front, following an initial round of indirect nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran, both...

Argentina's IMF-supported new measures look good on paper, but the devil is in the details
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 13 Apr 2025

On Friday, Argentina and the IMF released the full content of the economic program that will be implemented under the auspices of the $20 billion, four-year EFF Agreement that the Fund's board has just approved. For the details of the program, see https://www.imf.org/en/News/Ar... and https://www...

Noboa wins brilliantly
ECUADOR · In Brief · 13 Apr 2025

A press release from Bloomberg one hour ago cites the exit poll from La Posta giving Noboa 51% and Gonzalez 48% as a possible outcome for today’s second round election. La Posta is not a well-credited news site and it has over and over again made evident its links with Correa and his party. As of...

S&P changed the outlook for its BBB- sovereign credit rating to Negative from Stable
HUNGARY · In Brief · 13 Apr 2025

This happened at this year's first pre-set review date for Hungary, as regards any of the top three rating agencies: At the same time, S&P affirmed its BBB- credit rating, but even so, the agency's decision pushed Hungary to the very brink of losing its investment grade credit rating. S&P lowered...

CBRT’s baptism by fire
TURKEY · Report · 13 Apr 2025

President Erdogan received a delegation from pro-Kurdish Party DEM after 13 years, where reportedly PKK’s disarmament process was discussed. A tad bit more speculatively, DEM Party also laid out its 13 demands to participate in a new constitution. PKK and Syrian Kurds could start disarming for re...

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