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Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 03 Dec 2025

The key event on the fixed income market was the placement of the debut OFZs nominated in CNY. Two tranches were issued with maturity in 2029 and 2033 totaling CNY20 bln. According to Minfin, the main purpose of this exercise was the refinancing of Russia-25 Sovereign Eurobonds, which matured on ...

Russian macro: Watch the exchange rate—nothing else matters (so far)
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Dec 2025

Over a decade ago, when the oil price bounced back after the 2008 crisis and remained above $100/bbl for some time after, the Russian economy grew fast enough (4.0% in 2012, for instance). Economic growth was also fueled by rapidly expanding household credit, while an overly strong ruble caused i...

Hungary's supply of Russian crude oil is not affected by recent Ukrainian hit at the Druzhba pipeline
HUNGARY · In Brief · 03 Dec 2025

On December 1, Ukraine hit the Druzhba oil pipeline system once again, causing an explosion and another break in the continuity of oil shipments. Subsequently, reports like the following one have appeared in the media:However, this does not appear to be correct. As widely known, Druzhba indeed tr...

The Planalto Palace has secured more time for Messias’s confirmation hearing, the Senate approved the bill that taxes fintechs, and the House approved the environmental licensing bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Dec 2025

The government’s maneuver worked, and the Planalto Palace secured more time for Jorge Messias’s confirmation hearing for the Supreme Federal Court (STF). Initially, the president of Congress, Davi Alcolumbre (União–AP), had scheduled the hearing for December 10. But because President Lula did not...

Some good, some not-so-good news
TURKEY · Report · 03 Dec 2025

Monthly consumer price inflation surprised to the downside in November, coming in at around 0.9%, m/m, compared with a consensus forecast of around 1.3% (including ours). The 12-month CPI inflation thus declined notably to 31.1%, from 32.9% in October. Producer price inflation was also subdued in...

GDP grows for four consecutive quarters
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 02 Dec 2025

The South African economy registered its fourth consecutive quarterly expansion during the third quarter of 2025, as real GDP increased by 0.5% q/q following another rise of 0.9% q/q in the second quarter. The recent growth momentum has been supported by a more stable electricity supply and impro...

Macroeconomic and geopolitical developments – Weekly report, December 2, 2025
ISRAEL · Report · 02 Dec 2025

This week in Israel was once again dominated by political developments. The government is pushing to pass the Draft Bill quickly to secure ultra-Orthodox support ahead of the planned November elections, yet resistance within the coalition and among the public continues to intensify. Prime Ministe...

A tale of two Islands. Will the cost of Melissa reach or exceed Jamaica’s entire GDP?
JAMAICA / BAHAMAS · Report · 02 Dec 2025

Since its independence, Jamaica has never faced a physical and financial challenge of the magnitude of Hurricane Melissa, and it will take time and unprecedented amounts of money to build back better as the damage may indeed ultimately be near the country’s entire GDP. The announcement by the com...

The PL party will hold an emergency meeting today to discuss Michelle Bolsonaro’s criticism of Ciro Gomes, the House discusses the Public Security PEC, and the Senate discusses the bill that taxes fintechs
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Dec 2025

A new rift has emerged within the opposition. The Liberal Party (PL) is holding an emergency meeting this afternoon in Brasília to discuss Michelle Bolsonaro’s public criticism of the PL’s alliance with Ciro Gomes (PSDB). Hugo Motta (Republicanos–PB), President of the Lower House, stated that tod...

Israeli startup funding accelerates to $1.4bn in November, supporting sentiment for the shekel
ISRAEL · In Brief · 02 Dec 2025

In November 2025, Israeli startups raised approximately $1.4 billion, bringing total fundraising this year to $15 billion. Overall, in 2024, Israeli companies raised $11.6 billion, up 16.3% from $9.9 billion raised in 2023, and following $20 billion raised in 2022 and a record $34 billion raised ...

Economics: November economic news devoid of signs Mexico might see an upturn anytime soon
MEXICO · Report · 01 Dec 2025

Gross fixed investment and private consumption figures through August remain a major obstacle to any chance of an economic rebound through early 2026. At the same time, industrial activity remains on the skids, while 3Q GDP slipped two basis points. Weakness also remains apparent in services cons...

Politics: Changes at the Attorney General's Office, controversial rulings by the Supreme Court, and growing social protests
MEXICO · Report · 01 Dec 2025

A rift has appeared between Sheinbaum and newly elected Supreme Court justices perceived as favorable to the 4T. The judges’ intent was to eliminate a basic judicial principle that legal conflicts must have a definitive conclusion. Without this certainty, disputes would become endless. This woul...

The government-STF-Senate coalition is at risk and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Dec 2025

The first days of December mark the final stretch of the Legislative Branch’s agenda. Negotiations are intensifying around the Budget Guidelines Law, the 2026 Federal Budget, and revenue-raising measures. The Lower House may vote on a bill targeting persistent tax debtors. Jorge Messias, the appo...

A surprising Invamer poll rocks the political landscape
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 01 Dec 2025 · 1 response

After a long period without official polls due to a legal ban, Invamer published on Nov. 30th a surprising poll on the presidential election. The main result is a substantial jump in leftist Iván Cepeda’s vote intention, surpassing right-wing Abelardo de la Espriella, and centrist Sergio Fajardo,...

An unexpected turn of fiscal events
COLOMBIA · Report · 01 Dec 2025

Deterioration in the primary balance is expected to be fully compensated for by lower interest payments, so the new expected NCG deficit number for 2025 should be the same 6.7% of GDP as posted in 2024. In terms of debt, things might be somewhat improving on that end too: due to the effects of de...

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