GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

On April 2, 2026, the UN Committee on Enforced Disappearances published its report on Mexico and invoked Article 34 of the International Convention for the Protection of All Persons from Enforced Disappearance. It urged the UN Secretary-General to refer the situation urgently to the General Assem...

Hungary's election-a few lessons for Armenia

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 13 Apr 2026

The erosion of Viktor Orbán’s long-standing political dominance in Hungary, resulting in his election loss, can offer a couple of genuinely important lessons for Armenian observers. They are particularly relevant given my mathematical analysis of the election complexities of the Armenian election...

The new Minister of the Secretariat for Institutional Relations will be sworn in tomorrow, Paulo Azi will submit his report regarding the 6x1 work schedule bill, and the House will decide who will fill the seat on the TCU

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Apr 2026

On Tuesday, Congressman José Guimarães (PT-CE) will be sworn in as Minister of the Secretariat for Institutional Relations. As a result, Congressman Paulo Pimenta (PT-RS) is expected to take over as the government’s leader in the Lower House. On Wednesday (April 15), Congressman Paulo Azi (União-...

The truth in drips

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 13 Apr 2026

The government raised the projected primary deficit from BRL 23 billion to BRL 60 billion. There are still indications of underestimation in spending on Social Security and BPC, while the oil shock led to the announcement of BRL 31 billion in subsidies and tax waivers, an amount that tends to inc...

Reasonably good numbers, amid global crises

INDONESIA · Report · 13 Apr 2026

Despite global crises, especially war in the Middle East, the Indonesian economy still showed some decent numbers, in particular in the external balance and on the inflation front. The impacts of global economic trends on the domestic real economy could start being felt in the coming months. B...

A vote count update and Magyar's introductory speech

HUNGARY · In Brief · 13 Apr 2026

The officially communicated election result did not change significantly overnight, but the vote count rose to 98.9%. Importantly, the 170k mail votes cast by nonresidents have been counted and included, and so the most non-transparent part of the election process has been eliminated. What remain...

Peru: Keiko moves to runoff, second place still tied

PERU · In Brief · 12 Apr 2026

First exit polls were released a few hours ago and at 9pm will be released the first quick count. The message is the Keiko Fujimori form Fuerza Popular moves to the second round with about 16% of the vote. However, the second place is tied between Rafael López Aliaga from right-wing Renovation Po...

Landslide election victory achieved by Tisza today

HUNGARY · In Brief · 12 Apr 2026

With a record high 80% participation rate, Tisza reached a surprisingly clear-cut election victory today. About 84% of the domestic total vote having been counted, Tisza has 138 seats, against 54 for Fidesz and 7 for Mi Hazánk, in the new, three-party National Assembly. This represents a two-thir...

Back to square one

TURKEY · Report · 12 Apr 2026

It came to no experts’ surprise that Islamabad talks collapsed in day one, because going into these Iran and the US had completely opposing proposals and narratives about what the politics author (herewith, I) call the Gulf Crisis. Both Iran and the White House fervently believed they are winning...

GULF WEEKLY: Ceasefire holds but without Hormuz transits, Bahrain signs currency swap with UAE, SWFs confirm $24bn for Warner Bros deal

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 10 Apr 2026

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil remains elevated at about $96 as few tankers transit Hormuz, despite the ceasefire. * Vance and Ghalibaf are headed to Pakistan for talks due tomorrow, although they could be delayed. * Attacks on the GCC have largely...

Jorge Messia’s nomination to the STF will be read in the Senate next week, the next joint session of Congress should be held on April 30, and the House will decide on the new member of the TCU next week

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Apr 2026

The rapporteur for the nomination of Jorge Messias to the Supreme Federal Court (STF), Senator Weverton Rocha (PDT-MA), announced that he will formally read the nomination next week, on April 15. The confirmation hearing is scheduled for April 29, with a plenary vote expected on the same day. Sen...

Upcoming webinar: Peru first round results - What's next?

PERU · Report · 10 Apr 2026

Date: 13 Apr 2026 Time: 10:00 AM Eastern Time Join us after Peru's first round of elections for a live Zoom webinar featuring GlobalSource Partners' Peru Analyst Alfredo Thorne discussing what the results reveal about Peru’s trajectory and the possible impact on the economy and markets. T...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Diverging trends in 2025 CA positions

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 10 Apr 2026

Four countries, including Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Uzbekistan reported 4Q25 and full-year BoP data over the last week. Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, the countries sitting at both extremes of CA positions and, in my view, presenting the most interesting analytical cases, are yet to do that....

Congress may vote on the presidential veto on the sentencing framework, the proposal on Central Bank autonomy may be put to a vote next week, and Dario Durigan discussed potential support for indebted rural producers

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Apr 2026

The President of the Senate, Davi Alcolumbre (União-AP), signaled yesterday that he intends to put to a vote the presidential veto on the sentencing framework bill related to those involved in the January 8, 2023, attacks. He also stated that he plans to convene a joint session “as soon as possib...

The Iran Ceasefire: Some positive signs but Lebanon remains an immediate obstacle

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 08 Apr 2026

* The US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire 90 minutes before Trump's deadline to destroy Iranian civilian infrastructure, brokered by Pakistan. * There have already been ceasefire violations. Iran's Lavan Island refinery was struck, and it used this as justification for strikes against mos...