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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Iran War Days 17–18: Israel kills Larijani; allies reject Hormuz mission; top US official resigns
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 17 Mar 2026

HighlightsUpdate for March 16-17. Israel killed Ali Larijani, one of Iran’s de facto leaders. EU foreign ministers and others rejected Trump’s demand for a naval coalition to secure Hormuz. The most senior US counterterrorism official resigned, calling the war unjustified. Iran struck a gas field...

Peru: Prime minister resigned
PERU · In Brief · 17 Mar 2026

This afternoon, Prime Minister Denisse Mirelles, adverting a no-confidence vote in Congress tomorrow, decided to resign. We had expected this event and covered in our March forecast essay publish today. A few minutes ago, President José María Balcázar took oath to the new Cabinet led by Luis Arro...

Jumping into the dark
HUNGARY · Report · 17 Mar 2026

Less than four weeks before the election, there is no sign of any significant change in the previously known odds. On one hand, Tisza maintains a significant and even moderately increasing lead in the polls. But on the other, these surveys do not include the views of those who vote from abroad, a...

Parliamentary crisis pushes Ukraine's IMF programme to the brink
UKRAINE · In Brief · 17 Mar 2026

Parliamentary crisis is in full swing. In our last report, "Though Russia's strategies keep failing, the war is far from over," we described how the IMF is struggling with its new program and that the outlook is not particularly encouraging. Today Bloomberg reported that the IMF is now openly rai...

The House may vote on the urgent status of a bill that increases the revenue cap for MEIs, the government may submit a bill on the 6x1 work schedule, and Justice Dino ended forced retirement as the highest penalty for judges
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Mar 2026

The Lower House is expected to vote today on an urgent status request for a bill (PL 108/21) that raises the revenue cap for Individual Microentrepreneurs (MEIs). The proposal increases the annual gross revenue ceiling for MEIs to R$130,000. Regarding the proposed end of the six-days-on, one-day-...

Right-wing candidates take the lead; energy price shock justifies growth forecast cut and inflation forecast hike; we project BCRP policy pause for 2026
PERU · Report · 17 Mar 2026

In this forecast, we review our political scenarios; the impact of supply-price shocks on the economy and inflation; and the likely response by the Board of the Banco Central de Reserva del Perú (the BCRP, Peru’s central bank). Since the end of February, local politics and geopolitics have mo...

Strong Q4 balance of payments supports the shekel
ISRAEL · In Brief · 17 Mar 2026

Israel’s external accounts strengthened in Q4 2025. The current account surplus rose sharply to $3.4 billion, following two relatively weak quarters (around $0.6 billion each). The key driver from an FX perspective, the goods and services balance, improved significantly, with the surplus widening...

Still no space for a third-way candidate and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Mar 2026

Finance Minister Fernando Haddad is expected to leave the ministry to run for governor of São Paulo in October. The Central Bank will decide the benchmark interest rate. A session in Congress is scheduled to promulgate the Mercosur–European Union agreement. The Supreme Federal Court (STF) will be...

Kazakhstan macro: “Never cared for games they play”
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 16 Mar 2026

On March 3, the National Bank of Kazakhstan decided to keep the base rate unchanged but hinted that it could decline in 2H26. The regulator mentioned that inflationary pressure is easing and referred to decelerating y-o-y inflation (11.7% in February versus 12.2% in January). The NBK pointed to s...

A Turning Point
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 16 Mar 2026

The events of January 3, 2026 have served as a positive shock. The prospect of higher oil revenues and the gradual easing of sanctions temporarily stabilized the exchange-rate market and revived investor interest in oil, gas, and mining. That stabilizing effect is now fading. The foreign-exchange...

Essential CIS Politics: March 2-16, 2026
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 16 Mar 2026

- Russia provides data and assistance to Iran in targeting American bases. - Motjaba Khamenei reportedly being treated in Moscow. - US relaxes sanctions on Russian oil. - Russia provokes internet blackouts in preparation for increased censorship, and possibly, a new p...

The Iran War—good or bad for China?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 16 Mar 2026

The U.S.-Iran war underscores both geopolitical weakness and strength for China. While the war exacerbates China’s already large domestic economic problems, with rising energy prices, potential inflation, and trade disruption, the United States’ weakness, chaotic policymaking, and military advent...

Hangover
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 16 Mar 2026 · 1 response

Although we expect a monetary easing cycle in 2026, the economic slowdown that became evident in the second half of last year is still likely to manifest itself this year. In particular, economic growth should decelerate relative to 2025, although the nature of the deceleration will be somewhat d...

Haddad is expected to step down this week to run for Governor of São Paulo, the Central Bank should decide on the benchmark interest rate, and Motta will meet with party leaders to discuss the week’s legislative agenda
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Mar 2026

Finance Minister Fernando Haddad (PT) is expected to step down from his post this week. On Thursday (Mar. 19), he is scheduled to present a review of his tenure during an event in São Paulo alongside President Lula. Haddad will run for governor of São Paulo. The Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Com...

Implications of the war in Iran
INDIA · Report · 16 Mar 2026

Indian macroeconomics is facing a multi-faceted external shock, one that requires a large adjustment of the general equilibrium. There is broad agreement on the core vulnerabilities: net reliance on imported hydrocarbons, exposure to Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) export markets, and the integrit...

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