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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Two presidential voting polls were released yesterday, Lula attended a dinner last night with congressional leaders, and the CPMI on the INSS may hear from the INSS president
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Feb 2026

Yesterday, two presidential voting polls were released, both showing similar results. A poll conducted by Meio/Ideia Big Data indicates that President Lula (PT) leads in all five tested first-round scenarios. The Gerp Institute also confirmed the polarized landscape between President Lula (PT) an...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 05 Feb 2026

The FX market has stayed steady despite various external pressures. Interestingly, investors seem to overlook the drop in oil revenues for the budget. Reports say the discount on Russian oil to Brent hit $27/bbl in early February. Considering US pressure on India, a fall in oil-related export rev...

Inflation remained elevated in January, the NBK held the base rate steady amid mounting uncertainty
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 04 Feb 2026

While the initial economic and financial figures for January don’t look too bad, growing uncertainty has led the National Bank to keep the base rate at 18%. The NBK thinks inflation expectations are still high and seems set on holding the base rate steady for about six months. Y-o-y inflation is ...

The Senate approved the People’s Gas Provisional Measure, the government’s priority is now the “6x1” work schedule, and Haddad said he presented two names to Lula for positions at the Central Bank
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Feb 2026

The Senate concluded yesterday the vote on the People’s Gas provisional measure (MP 1,313/25). As no substantive changes were made, the bill now moves to the President’s desk for final approval. Another government priority is ending the so-called “6x1” work schedule. According to Congressman Lind...

Keep calm and carry (on)
TURKEY · Report · 04 Feb 2026

Preventing regime change in Iran has become the number one policy priority for Ankara, which is rightfully mindful of negative spillovers across the border. The politics author thinks a peace deal between Iran and US-Israel is not very likely, thus sharing Ankara’s concern. At home, it is calm...

Institutional FX sales drive shekel appreciation, following non-resident flows in Q2–Q3
ISRAEL · In Brief · 04 Feb 2026

Since September 2024, the shekel has strengthened markedly, reaching multi-year highs and outperforming most major currencies. Over this period, the shekel has appreciated by around 18% against the U.S. dollar, about 23% against the Japanese yen, and roughly 12% against the euro. At the same time...

The Most Serene Committee
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Feb 2026

The minutes of the last Copom meeting brought relatively few novelties compared to the Statement released last week, but, taken as a whole, they reinforce our conviction that the most likely scenario for monetary policy involves the beginning of the monetary easing cycle with a 0.50 p.p. cut at t...

EU finally prohibited gas imports from Russia, Hungary sues at the European Court
HUNGARY · In Brief · 03 Feb 2026

The EU regulation to prohibit the imports of natural gas from Russia was finally published in the EU's official gazette on January 26, after being approved by the European Parliament in early December and by the EU Council at a later date. This regulation does not prohibit the imports of Russian ...

The House approved the People’s Gas Provisional Measure, the Executive Branch outlined its legislative priorities for the year, and the Supreme Court also outlined its priorities for the year
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Feb 2026

Yesterday, the House approved the People’s Gas Provisional Measure. Considered an important initiative for the government, Provisional Measure No. 1,313/25 establishes the People’s Gas Program, aimed at expanding access to cooking gas in Brazil. In its message to Congress, the Executive Branch al...

Inflation: a challenging start to 2026
TURKEY · Report · 03 Feb 2026

Consumer prices rose by a higher than expected 4.8%, m/m, in January, with the 12-month CPI rate therefore easing only slightly to 30.7% from 30.9% in December, while producer prices rose by 2.7% (January 2025: 3.1%, m/m) with the 12-month rate easing to 27.2% from 27.7% in December. The key driv...

Macroeconomic and geopolitical developments – Weekly report, February 3, 2026
ISRAEL · Report · 03 Feb 2026

Recent data point to a clearer improvement in Israel’s macroeconomic fundamentals toward year-end 2025, supported by a rebound in activity, strong high-tech exports, and easing inflationary pressures. The recent upgrade in Israel’s credit outlook will reinforce confidence in the macro-fiscal envi...

A window of opportunity
VENEZUELA · Report · 03 Feb 2026

Venezuela is entering a phase of political redefinition following the violent outcome of January 3, 2026. Delcy Rodríguez, now interim president under the tutelage of the Trump administration, has laid out a three-stage plan: stabilization, reconstruction (and reconciliation), and democratic tran...

The energy ceasefire did not last long
UKRAINE · In Brief · 03 Feb 2026

Predictably, the energy ceasefire did not hold even for a week. Last night, Russia carried out another large-scale strike on energy infrastructure, using hundreds of drones and dozens of missiles. In fact, Russia usually needs about a week to prepare for a massive air attack, and this pause—while...

Economics: Q4 2025 GDP grew 1.4% YoY, resulting in weak full-year growth of 0.5%
MEXICO · Report · 02 Feb 2026

According to figures from INEGI, GDP for Q4 2025 increased by 1.6% YoY seasonally adjusted, showing a rebound compared to the previous quarter, when it fell -0.2%. This performance resulted in a total increase of 0.5% for 2025. The secondary sector experienced weak growth in Q4 (0.3%) but is i...

Israel enters 2026 with lower financing needs, despite higher bond issuance in February
ISRAEL · In Brief · 02 Feb 2026

The government’s monthly issuance plan for February 2026 is to raise NIS 12.0 billion in tradable bonds on the local capital market in four weekly tenders, averaging NIS 3 billion per week. This represents a slightly higher pace than in recent months. In 2025, average monthly issuance stood at ar...

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