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President Lula's presence in Brasilia helped guide the political agreement around the Transition Constitutional Amendment Proposal (PEC). He is expected to speak to the press today around 11:30 a.m. In addition to the PEC, he will likely be asked about the ministerial team. Yesterday, by 6 votes ...

Ukraine to restrict religious groups linked to Russia

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Dec 2022

On December 1 Zelensky said his government would proscribe activities by religious organizations connected to Russia. A Kremlin funded monastery in Kyiv was suspected of spying for Russia. Zelensky said that the security services believed that Russian subversion is carried on through religious bo...

South Africa's Risk Hieghtened Whilst Ramaphosa Considers his Future

SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 02 Dec 2022

President Ramaphosa finds himself in a crisis riddled with complexity. He has few options, but none is exciting or under his total control. When a few months back, Arthur Fraser, South Africa’s x-spy master, leaked the theft of US dollars from Ramaphosa’s Phala Phala Farm, the President dismissed...

The 2023 NFPS budget and third quarter fiscal data hide revenues and expenditures. The economy continues to accelerate.

PANAMA · Report · 01 Dec 2022

The overall government budget for next year is US 27.6 billion. Because of the state accounting system in Panama, this figure includes US 3.2 billion for state-owned banks (which are independently managed and not subject in practical terms to budget restrictions), as well as US 3.5 billion in int...

Russia: a brief market watch

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 01 Dec 2022

The FX market remains more or less stable in anticipation of an embargo on Russian oil and the price cap. It is worth mentioning that trading activity in traditional currencies is declining in Russia as these assets are considered toxic by the growing number of local market participants. The full...

A trot not a gallop

PHILIPPINES · Forecast · 01 Dec 2022

The strong external headwinds buffeting the country mean that its chances of galloping away from the pandemic have disappeared. It can nevertheless count itself lucky to have remittances and business process outsourcing supporting consumption. These two dollar earners have proven themselves relat...

The Argentine economy is becoming increasingly distorted

ARGENTINA · Report · 01 Dec 2022

The government's handling of the exchange rate is leading to increasing distortions in the economy, affecting both exports and imports. In terms of exports, the production of goods is becoming increasingly discouraged by the taxes imposed on it and by the arbitrary restrictions on imports of int...

Lula is negotiating the Transition PEC with several parties, amendments to the PEC have already been submitted, and the STF continues to discuss the Lifetime Review case

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Dec 2022

After a meeting with Senate President Rodrigo Pacheco, the PSD caucus said it would defend a two-year proposal. The PP also decided to support the PEC. The probability is for the PEC to be approved. Lula also met with several members of the transition team. This Thursday, the STF will continue to...

Essential CIS Politics: December 2022

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 01 Dec 2022

* Russia became more diplomatically isolated but has drawn close to Iran. * The mobilization ended in Russia but there are still a million Russians abroad. * Ukraine retook Kherson after Russia withdrew all troops. * Azerbaijan and Armenia held talks in the US.

President Ramaphosa Finds Himself on Thin Ice- SA Constitutional Democracy is tested again.

SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 30 Nov 2022 · 1 response

Yesterday, the Parliamentary Panel investigating President Ramaphosa's Phala Phala incidence handed out its report to the Speaker of Parliament, and she wasted no time to make it public. The Panel, chaired by the previous Chief Justice of the country concluded that: “In light of all the informati...

November Producer Price deflation suggests further CPI deceleration

URUGUAY · Report · 30 Nov 2022

Following softer food and energy prices and a somewhat stronger local FX rate, the recently published November Wholesale Price Index registered deflation of -3.5% m/m, reinforcing the October reading of -5.8% m/m. The resulting -0.9% y/y rate is the lowest annual inflation rate since 2017 and a s...

No surprises in October

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 30 Nov 2022

Rosstat reported that in October, the output of the five basic sectors was down by 3.2% y-o-y in October, which is a bit better than in September (down by 3.5% y-o-y). In 10M22, this output was down by a mere 1.1%, heading toward around a 2.0% contraction in 2022. Generally, it looks as though Ru...

EU Commission: dark grey smoke has risen in Brussels today

HUNGARY · In Brief · 30 Nov 2022

Well, the EU Commission has finally come out with its much-expected proposal on Hungary today, just as scheduled. On balance, it is more negative than positive, but not entirely negative from Hungary's perspective. And at any rate, the Commission did not say anything particularly surprising, espe...

Kazakhstan macro: seemingly slow growth amid decent budgetary performance

KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 30 Nov 2022

While looking at some weather forecast websites, it is not unusual to see that in addition to the current temperatures, one may read that the weather “feels like” it is somewhat cooler or hotter – depending on various conditions, such as the strength and direction of the wind or the level of humi...

Economic activity stagnates in the third quarter

TURKEY · Report · 30 Nov 2022

Economic activity was broadly unchanged over the previous quarter in Q3 (-0.1%, q/q), largely in line with expectations, down from (slightly downwardly revised) 1.9% in Q2, while it expanded by almost 4% over the same quarter of previous year (Graph 1).

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BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Dec 2022