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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Higher for longer?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 16 Jun 2025

The Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) communication signals that the interest rate will be kept at a high level as long as necessary to bring inflation to the target midpoint and re-anchor expectations. However, we believe it is unlikely that the Central Bank will maintain real interest rates clo...

May CPI surprised to the downside, but inflation remains near 3% – rate cut unlikely due to geopolitical risks
ISRAEL · In Brief · 16 Jun 2025

May CPI surprises with a 0.3% drop, driven by a sharp fall in prices for trips abroad May CPI in Israel surprised to the downside, falling 0.3% month-on-month, driven primarily by a sharp 15.5% drop in overseas travel prices. This brought the annual inflation rate down to 3.1%, from 3.6% in April...

Economics: Rising consumer inflation driven by PPI, combined with discordant monetary policy, make for a complex scenario
MEXICO · Report · 16 Jun 2025

Annual inflation in Mexico reached 4.42% in May 2025, with core inflation propelled to 4.06% by rising merchandise and services prices. At the same time, the non-core component increased 5.34% annually, driven especially by meat products (8.25%). Yet despite rising inflation, Banxico has lowered ...

Politics: Morena’s vote was way lower than expected in the Durango and Veracruz municipal elections
MEXICO · Report · 16 Jun 2025

On June 1, the country held its first judicial elections, along with municipal races in Durango and Veracruz. Normally these state elections would not spark much interest nationally. This time, however, the races and their results attracted attention as a possible bellwether to gauge Morena’s for...

The House should vote today on a legislative decree that revokes the President’s decree on the IOF, Congress is expected to discuss budget fund transfers, and presidential vetoes are scheduled to be analyzed tomorrow
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Jun 2025

A vote is scheduled for today on the urgent status of a legislative decree bill that seeks to override the President’s decree increasing the Financial Transactions Tax (IOF). There is pressure from sectors of the Lower House not only for the urgent status of the bill but also for a vote on the bi...

Economy weakens, although currency is stable and exports are robust
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 16 Jun 2025

Economic activity data for April confirmed earlier expectations. The robust 5.4% y/y growth recorded in March 2025 was not sustained in April, when economic activity grew by just 1.7% y/y. This slowdown is primarily driven by weakening domestic demand, in both public and private investment. In...

No easy solutions for China
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 16 Jun 2025

The two economic issues facing China are the US-China trade talks and economic stimulus. The first can be partly resolved through negotiations, although even tariffs of 10 percent would cause a drop in GDP. The agreement thus far appears to be an agreement to negotiate—not an actual contract. On ...

Our hot scorchy summer gets scorchier
TURKEY · Report · 15 Jun 2025 · 1 response

Unlike the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, the Iran-Israel clash poses existential threats to the Turkish economy and domestic policy, the politics author opines. He constructs 4 endgame scenarios and analyses their impact on President Erdogan’s policies. At this stage of the War Games, needless to ...

Israel’s war economy – economic outlook following the Iran strike
ISRAEL · In Brief · 14 Jun 2025

On June 13, 2025, Israel launched a major military operation inside Iranian territory, targeting nuclear sites, missile launch infrastructure, and senior military command centers. The strikes caused significant damage and reportedly killed several high-ranking Iranian officials and military offic...

As inflation breaks the 2% psychological mark, the government explains how it will accumulate reserves without losing control of the money supply
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 13 Jun 2025

This week ended on two positive notes. Yesterday, INDEC reported that May inflation was 1.5% m/m, down from 3.7% in March and 2.8% in April. The low print benefited from a reduction (-2.7%) in seasonal prices and underadjustment (1.3%) of regulated prices. However, although core inflation (2.2%) ...

GULF WEEKLY: Israeli strikes on Iran cause major damage, Saudi Q1 GDP revised up, Oman’s tourist numbers decline
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 13 Jun 2025

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: *Israel's strikes caused major damage to military and nuclear sites and killed senior leaders. *Oil, hovering around $75, has not yet priced in a major risk of a closure of Hormuz. *Gulf states, including even Bahrain, cond...

The House is expected to vote on a legislative decree that revokes the President’s decree on the IOF tax, allies are distancing themselves from the government, and there is a holiday next week in Brazil
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Jun 2025

The Lower House sent a strong message to the government: it scheduled a vote for next Monday on a legislative decree that revokes the president’s decree on the IOF tax. It is also clear that some allies have begun distancing themselves from the government as the election approaches and the admini...

Webinar replay - Colombia in turmoil
COLOMBIA · Report · 13 Jun 2025

What is driving the current wave of violence in Colombia? What are the likely consequences for governability, reforms and an eventual consultation on labor reform? What are the implications for the presidential race? How will the central bank act in its June meeting? Visit our calendar page to...

Webinar replay - Poland election results: Political and policy implications
POLAND · Report · 13 Jun 2025

The election of Karol Nawrocki will usher in changes for Poland. What is the new administration's likely impact on policy over the next two and a half years and beyond? What does the outcome mean for the course of Polish politics? Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar fea...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: CCA currencies in a sweet spot, but for how long?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 13 Jun 2025

Typically, the Caucasus and Central Asia currencies have faced a weakening RUB, which creates a myriad of problems for countries that tend to run trade deficits with Russia and depend on cross-border remittances from their large neighbor. But 2025 has been different, with the strengthening RUB ge...

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