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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Excellent January inflation data (with some footnotes), analysts expect a base rate cut soon
HUNGARY · In Brief · 12 Feb 2026

The headline rate of CPI-inflation was 0.3% mom, 2.1% yoy in January, the latter sharply down from December's 3.3% yoy. Core inflation also fell, to 2.7% yoy from the previous month's 3.8% yoy, and non-fuel inflation dropped to 3.4% yoy, from 4.5% yoy in December. This sharp drop was no surprise ...

A new poll reinforces the polarization between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, Lula and Motta meet to discuss the 6x1 work schedule issue, and tensions are expected to rise in Brasília regarding the Banco Master case
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Feb 2026

Yesterday, a new round of the Genial/Quaest presidential polling was released. The poll reinforces the polarized landscape between President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro. Lula leads in both first- and second-round scenarios. The absence of São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas from the poll...

Next move most probably a 100 bps cut
TURKEY · Report · 12 Feb 2026

The CBRT held its first Inflation Report meeting of the year today. As expected, the Bank kept its interim targets unchanged at 16% for 2026 and 9% for 2027, while setting an interim target of 8% for 2028. But the Bank revised its 2026 year-end inflation forecast range upward by two percentage po...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 11 Feb 2026

Jan 29 Government: The US Chevron promises to take measures to ensure reliable and safe operation of facilities in the Tengiz oil field. LUKOIL: Russian company has signed an agreement with US Carlyle on the sale of its foreign assets, excluding those which are based in Kazakhstan. Jan 30 Agency ...

Dominican government issues sovereign bonds for USD 2.75 billion
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 11 Feb 2026

As part of the financing strategy for the 2026 public budget, the Dominican Government issued sovereign bonds totalling USD 2.75 billion. According to the Ministry of Finance and Economy, the placement was structured in two tranches: USD 1.25 billion with an 8-year maturity at a 5.75% yield, and ...

Discussions on the 6x1 workweek bill continue, the House approved the urgent status request for the Redata bill, and the STF may review the case regarding the TCU’s SecexConsenso secretariat
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Feb 2026

The President of the Lower House, Hugo Motta (Republicanos–PB), said yesterday that a constitutional amendment is the “best way” to address the reduction of the workweek, as it allows for broader debate. On Monday, Motta submitted the constitutional amendment proposal (PEC) that would eliminate t...

Impeaching the nation’s two highest officials: accountability, dynastic competition and the governance stakes for the Philippines
PHILIPPINES · Report · 11 Feb 2026

The simultaneous impeachment controversies involving the Philippine President and Vice President reflect more than constitutional procedure — they reveal a struggle over succession, institutional credibility, and democratic maturity. While impeachment is designed to enforce accountability, its de...

Appreciating ruble, coupled with the growing gap between Brent and Urals oil prices, seems harmful to the economy
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 11 Feb 2026

Rosstat, which frequently updates its statistics, recently reported that GDP growth in 2024 was 4.9%, up from the previously stated 4.3%. With this higher 2024 base, the sharp slowdown in 2025 now seems less surprising. The initial Rosstat’s estimate for 2025 GDP growth is 1.0%, though many month...

Kyrgyzstan: "Two friends never fight for power"
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 11 Feb 2026 · 1 response

President Sadyr Japarov clears the decks ahead of a high-stakes presidential race looming larger. For the second time since Oct Kyrgyzstan has come to the fore in terms of offering us a glimpse of how the obscure political field in the country operates. In a largely unexpected, albeit probably no...

Politico.eu seen in Hungarian politics once again
HUNGARY · In Brief · 10 Feb 2026

This morning, Politico.eu, which excels as an efficient miner of inside information in Brussels, wrote on a currently considered five-point plan to bring Ukraine into the EU by 2027, referring to their conversations with ten officials and diplomats within the EU. This plan would greatly affect Hu...

The Federal Police was able to access Vorcaro’s cellphone, Motta submitted the 6x1 proposal to the CCJC, and urgency may also be voted on for the Redata bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Feb 2026

The news that the Federal Police managed to break the encryption on the cellphone of Daniel Vorcaro, owner of Banco Master, generated significant repercussions in Brasília. There is considerable anticipation regarding the information that may be recovered. The President of the Lower House, Hugo M...

Economics: 2025 Year-end public finance figures signal risks for 2026 and beyond
MEXICO · Report · 10 Feb 2026

The full-year 2025 figures show a fiscal deficit exceeding the official target by MXN $285 billion, closing at MXN $1.7 trillion, which is equivalent to 4.8% of GDP, down from 5.9% of GDP in 2024. This imbalance means the public sector as a whole increased its financial obligations by a non-trivi...

A decoupling of the market and the real sector?
INDONESIA · Report · 10 Feb 2026

The Indonesian economy seemed to be experiencing a kind of decoupling between the financial markets and the real sector. The market was very much affected by the warning by MSCI about the country's stock market and the lowering of the Indonesia's sovereign outlook by Moody's. However, real sector...

President Jeri risks impeachment; election race heats up; fiscal deficit reached 2.2% of GDP in 2025; PEN/USD appreciation persists
PERU · Report · 10 Feb 2026

We try to answer three key questions in this report: Will Congress impeach President José Jerí? Has the government met its fiscal targets? And is the Banco Central de la República del Perú (BCRP, the central bank) departing from its usual FX intervention policy? In politics, the focus remains...

Why is the Uzbek Soum losing some altitude in early 2026?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 10 Feb 2026

While I am on topic (see my report "Uzbekistan is gingerly breaking away from the twin-deficit curse"), I offer my pithy thoughts on the early-year softening of the UZS since I have been prompted by client questions.  The 2025 unusual strengthening of regional currencies (vs the US$) figured prom...

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