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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The limited Iranian strikes at Israel were as expected, the next steps are more uncertain
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 14 Apr 2024 · 1 response

Last night, April 13, Iran launched around 300 drones and missiles toward Israel. These are significant as the first attacks from Iranian territory (and possibly by Iranian forces directly) in nearly a half-century of enmity. Until now, Iran has merely provided support to allies across the region...

Russia destroys Ukraine main power plant
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 13 Apr 2024

On April 12 Russian air strikes carried out the attack. The Ukrainian Air Force said it destroyed 58 out of 82 missiles and drones that attacked the plant. 6 of the missiles fired were Kinzhal (''dagger'') which are ultra fast—according to Kyiv. Air defense was unable to take down the Kinzhals. T...

China’s sugar high
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 12 Apr 2024

Recent data from China’s economy has indicated a turnaround, mostly in the industrial sector including autos, but also in some high technology products. However, the improvements have been fueled by a sharp increase in industrial loans even as monetary policy overall remains sluggish. Further gro...

GULF WEEKLY: Oil rises alongside Iran-Israel tensions, Bahrain releases GDP and prisoners, Kuwait in confusion over government formation
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 12 Apr 2024

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent crude hit a six-month high of $92, driven by geopolitics, but the IEA cut its demand forecast. * Countries including Saudi Arabia, Germany and Russia urged Iran not to retaliate against Israel. * Comments by an Irania...

Election Monitor II: National elections outcome growing more unpredictable, but more profound
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 12 Apr 2024

In its first truly competitive and pluralistic elections since the dawn of democracy in 1994, the SA National Elections predictions are becoming more and more complex, and the outcome more unpredictable, leading to a blend of excitement and anxiety. Since my last Election Monitor, the Speaker of...

The government withdrew the urgent status of the payroll tax bills and the app drivers bill, the payroll tax bills should be negotiated next week, and the government may also announce three important measures next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Apr 2024

Faced with resistance from the National Congress, the government was forced to withdraw the request for constitutional urgent status for the payroll tax reinstatement bills and the bill dealing with app drivers. Next week, the bills on payroll tax relief, Perse (the program aimed at the events se...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Analysis of growth drivers points to upside risks to economic performance in 2024
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 12 Apr 2024

The publication of the national accounts data for 4Q23 allows us to investigate in more detail the breakdown of growth drivers across Caucasus and Central Asia economies for the year (2023) as a whole. The most salient feature of our analysis is that the counter-intuitive (and counter-cyclical) i...

Ukraine passes law to draft more people
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Apr 2024

On April 11 the Verkhovna Rada voted for the bill that has been debated since 2023. The objective is to increase the size of the army. The army is struggling because of the major Russian advantage in munitions. There was a clause in the bill to allow soldiers who had served 3 years to leave the a...

ECJ rules against sanctions on 2 Russian billionaires
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Apr 2024

On April 10 the European Court of Justice ruled that sanctions on Mikhail Fridman and Petr Aven are unlawful because the European Union did not provide sufficient evidence that they should be sanctioned. They were sanctioned in 2022 only 2 days after the Ukraine War began. The men were also sanct...

Lula meets with ministers to discuss a package of measures on credit, the government announced the new Voa Brasil program, and the FPE presents five bills on Tax Reform regulations
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Apr 2024

This morning, President Lula meets with Vice President and Minister of Development, Industry, Commerce, and Services Geraldo Alckmin, among others, to discuss a package of measures on credit, more specifically, microcredit and credit for microenterprises. On social media, the Minister of Ports an...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 11 Apr 2024

The FX market remains relatively stable despite rising oil prices. The Western sanctions, combined with the damage to some oil refineries from drone attacks, reduced the profitability of the oil companies. As a result, the supply of hard currency from their side remains subdued. Nevertheless, the...

CPI-inflation marginally down in March: no surprise at all
HUNGARY · In Brief · 11 Apr 2024

CPI-inflation for March came out this morning at 0.8% mom, 3.6% yoy, the latter marginally down from last month's 3.7%. This was exactly the same as analysts' median expectation in Portfolio.hu's usual monthly poll. What was driving prices up was unregulated services, household energy and fuels, ...

The House approved urgent status for the Perse and payroll tax bills, the Joint Committee on the payroll tax MP is expected to be installed today, and Lira said that the working group on the Fake News bill should be installed
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Apr 2024

The House approved urgent status for the bills on the Emergency Program for the Resumption of the Events Sector (Perse) and the payroll tax exemption for small municipalities. The merits of the two proposals will be analyzed next week. Today, the Joint Committee on the provisional measure (MP) th...

How close is the unification and liberalization of the exchange market?
ARGENTINA · Report · 10 Apr 2024

Favorable financial indicators—the reduction of the gap between the official exchange rate and the pseudo-free exchange rates (the CCL and the "blue"), the accumulation of reserves and the decrease in country risk—are encouraging, but they should not be taken as indicators that the convergence of...

Kazakhstan macro: a new economic agenda for a new government
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 10 Apr 2024

In early February, Kazakhstan’s President Tokayev accepted the resignation of the government headed by Mr. Smailov, who had been in charge of the cabinet of ministers since January 2022. The position was handed over to Mr. Bektenov, who had served as the head of the presidential administration si...

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