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Inflation forecast revised up
VENEZUELA · Report · 14 Oct 2025

We revise up our projections for 2025–2026, reflecting the renewed spiral of inflation and devaluation. The gap between export revenue—limited and with a bearish bias—and a still-strong demand for foreign exchange further weakens the BCV’s ability to defend the bolivar. Since mid-September, the c...

The One-Month Income Tax Holiday Proposal: relief or risk?
PHILIPPINES · Report · 14 Oct 2025

In the middle of last week, Senator Erwin Tulfo filed Senate Bill No. 1446, seeking to suspend income-tax withholding for one month as financial relief for workers. While the measure would temporarily raise take-home pay and slightly boost consumption, it would cost the government an estimated ₱5...

U.S. support buys time, not permanent stability, for Argentina
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 13 Oct 2025

Despite the U.S. Treasury’s recent show of support, Argentina’s markets remain uneasy. The mere announcement two weeks ago that Washington was willing to offer financial assistance did little to restore confidence. After a brief period of calm, both the exchange rate and country risk climbed agai...

Israel shifts from war to recovery; focus shifts to September CPI
ISRAEL · In Brief · 13 Oct 2025

Overview The 20 live hostages were released and returned to Israel this morning, after two years in Hamas captivity, as part of the first stage of the ceasefire agreement. In parallel, Israel began releasing Palestinian prisoners. U.S. President Donald Trump, widely viewed in Israel as the key br...

Bracing for another rough winter
TURKEY · Report · 12 Oct 2025 · 1 response

With corruption accusations reaching Ankara mayor Mansur Yavas, it is almost certain that Kemal Kilicdaroglu will be returned to his position as party chairman during the month, thus sidelining Ozer and his team for a long period. Does CHP have any cards to play before being paralyzed? The (Ku...

No downgrade from S&P, Governor reconfirms tight MNB policy course
HUNGARY · In Brief · 11 Oct 2025

S&P said yesterday that they did not change their BBB-/Negative rating for the Hungarian government, on the occasion of their second and last review date for that rating in 2025. S&P did not even issue a new assessment for Hungary this time. So for now, the government have avoided the threat of f...

Peru’s Congress impeached President Boluarte
PERU · In Brief · 10 Oct 2025

Last night with 121 votes of the 130 legislators (8 did not attended), Peru’s Congress impeached President Boluarte. This followed a sharp increase in insecurity and the feeling that her government had not been attending the population's demands for greater internal security. Official extortion c...

Justice Barroso announced his retirement from the Court, Lula said he will meet with leaders next week to discuss alternatives to MP 1,303, and Congress will review Lula’s vetoes of the Environmental Licensing Law
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Oct 2025

Supreme Federal Court Justice Luís Roberto Barroso announced on Thursday, October 9, that he will step down from the Court. Currently, five main contenders are being considered to replace him. In an interview, President Lula said he will meet next week with ministers and congressional leaders to ...

GULF WEEKLY: OPEC+ hikes by less than expected, US approves AI chips exports, Trump’s Gaza ceasefire begins
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 10 Oct 2025 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC+ hiked production for November by 137k b/d, less than had been expected by the market. * There was a record $80bn in sukuk issuance in Q3, much of it from the GCC. * Saudi Arabia’s PMI rebounded in September, and its...

Eskom turns profitable for the first time in eight years as operations improve
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 10 Oct 2025

Eskom reported its financial results for the year ending March 31, 2025, at the end of September 2025. The results indicate that the entity had returned to profitability for the first time in eight years, posting a profit before tax of R23.9 billion in FY2025, compared with a loss of R25.5 billio...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Kyrgyzstan’s early polls: Should investors flinch—or lean in?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 10 Oct 2025

One would be forgiven for fretting about the snap parliamentary vote in Kyrgyzstan on Nov 30th. In all of Central Asia, Kyrgyzstan has had the largest share of early votes (parliamentary and presidential), and those have often been associated with political crises and mass protests. In turn, my a...

Peru’s Congress to impeach Boluarte
PERU · In Brief · 09 Oct 2025 · 1 response

Tonight the majority of Congress’ members have decided to support a motion to impeach president Boluarte. Our estimate is that there are more than 100 votes supporting the bill, well in excess the 98 needed assuming that all 130 congress members attend the plenary. This may take place tomorrow. A...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 09 Oct 2025

The Russian market has been under strain due to rumors about the supply of long-range missiles to Ukraine. Earlier hopes for resolving the military conflict and expectations of a rapid key rate reduction were significant drivers in recent months. However, both now seem unfounded, leaving the mark...

A day of hope for Israelis and Palestinians, as Trump announces Gaza ceasefire: Analysis and implications
ISRAEL · In Brief · 09 Oct 2025

Overnight, U.S. President Donald Trump announced that Israel and Hamas have signed the first phase of his Gaza peace plan, including an agreement for a ceasefire, the release of all hostages, a large-scale release of Palestinian prisoners, and the withdrawal of Israeli forces to an agreed line. A...

The House rejected the measure that taxes betting companies, the STF will analyze the case against the payroll tax relief for 17 economic sectors, and the case regarding the Ferrogrão railway project has been suspended
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Oct 2025

The government suffered a major defeat in Congress as the Lower House rejected Provisional Measure (MP) 1303, which dealt with the taxation of betting companies (“bets”) and tax-exempt bonds. Separately, Supreme Federal Court (STF) Justice Cristiano Zanin authorized the merits trial of the case c...

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