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Rescue efforts conclude for victims of Jet Set tragedy
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 11 Apr 2025

Yesterday, Dominican authorities included the rescue operations for the victims of the roof collapse at the Jet Set nightclub, an iconic entertainment venue in Santo Domingo. This tragedy, unrelated to any natural disaster,  ranks among the most devastating in the country’s history, with 221 conf...

Lula appointed a replacement for the Communications Ministry, the federal government enacted the Annual Budget Law, and the opposition gathered enough signatures to fast-track the amnesty bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Apr 2025

Yesterday, April 10, President Lula confirmed the appointment of Federal Deputy Pedro Lucas Fernandes (from Maranhão) to take over the Ministry of Communications, replacing Juscelino Filho. Yesterday the federal government enacted the 2025 Annual Budget Law (LOA). The budget was approved almost e...

Trzaskowski maintains a stable lead, but uncertainty is high. The prospects for institutional reforms and parliamentary elections.
POLAND · Report · 11 Apr 2025 · 1 response

This report addresses recent poll results, discussing the potential outcome of the elections' first and second rounds. We discuss the quality of the poll results based on recent results and historical outcomes, hidden supporters, and the role of the undecided. We also describe the impact of recen...

New MNB vice governor and Monetary Council member proposed by PM Orbán
HUNGARY · In Brief · 11 Apr 2025

Parliament's economic committee is scheduled to hear Mr. Zoltán Kurali (left on the picture below, standing next to governor Varga) on Tuesday next week. Mr. Kurali has been nominated by PM Orbán for the position of vice governor in the MNB. At present, the MNB has three vice governors: Barnabás ...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Current account positions decay in CCA in 2024; deterioration to continue in 2025
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 11 Apr 2025

The 4Q24 data for our CCA economies, which was published over the last week or so, shows that the regional current account (CA) position deteriorated in the last quarter of the year. In particular, the CA deficit ex-Azerbaijan deteriorated from 0.8 percent of GDP in 3Q24 to 1.8 percent of GDP in ...

Mexico Macro Monitor: Banxico minutes reveal confidence on reducing inflation and interest rates
MEXICO · In Brief · 10 Apr 2025

Banxico is confident that inflation will continue to decline, downplays risks, and signals that the interest rate cut will persist according to the minutes from March 27 meeting The Governing Board of the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) unanimously decided to cut the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis ...

Lula will likely appoint a quick replacement for the Communications Ministry, discussions continue on the IBS Management Committee rules, and Brazilian newspapers focus on Trump’s tariffs
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Apr 2025

President Lula is expected to call Senate President Davi Alcolumbre (União-AP) and leaders from União Brasil to discuss a replacement for Juscelino Filho (União) at the Ministry of Communications. A quick appointment aims to ease the tensions within the party caused by Juscelino Filho’s departure...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 10 Apr 2025

The Russian financial markets have been under pressure recently, as the "tariff war" story affected markets worldwide. Fears of slower economic growth and an acceleration of inflation globally were extrapolated to the Russian story. Even though Russian financial markets remain ring-fenced from th...

Kazakhstan macro: Exchange rate in the spotlight amid tariff games
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 09 Apr 2025

The USD/KZT has been on a roller coaster in recent months, pushed up and down by various factors. After several months of natural depreciation that lasted until the end of January 2025, when the USD/KZT tested 530 in mid-January, the Kazakh currency moved below 500 a month later. Now, it is appro...

Federal budget performance improves in March
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 09 Apr 2025

The Ministry of Finance reported that in 1Q25, federal budget revenues reached nearly R9.1 trln and were up by 3.8% y-o-y. Oil-and-gas (O&G) revenues accounted for 29.2% of total revenues and were down by 9.8% y-o-y. The non-O&G revenues grew by 10.6% y-o-y, which is more or less in line with the...

Mexico Macro Monitor: Consumer inflation is not improving and producer prices risk a spillover on consumer prices
MEXICO · In Brief · 09 Apr 2025

March inflation edged up slightly on non-core pressures, while core inflation's six-month stagnation raises doubts about monetary easing March consumer inflation rose slightly to 3.8% year-over-year, compared to 3.77% in February. The increase was driven by the non-core component, which reached 4...

The PGR filed charges against the Minister of Communications, causing him to step down; Motta is working toward building a positive legislative agenda; and the CCJ will vote on the work plan for the IBS Management Committee
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Apr 2025

Yesterday, the Office of the Prosecutor General (PGR) filed charges with the Supreme Federal Court (STF) against the Minister of Communications, Juscelino Filho (União), accusing him of misappropriating parliamentary fund transfers while serving as a federal deputy. Due to pressure from the PL to...

Deficit narrows in 2025 under baseline scenario, but surges if Gaza conflict escalates
ISRAEL · In Brief · 08 Apr 2025

The Ministry of Finance announced yesterday that Israel recorded a deficit of NIS 13 billion ($3.5 billion) in March. The trailing 12-month (TTM) budget deficit declined to 5.2% of GDP, down from 5.3% in February, 5.8% in January, 6.9% in December, and a peak of 8.5% in September 2024. In the fir...

Good news on inflation at last: inflation fell more than expected in March
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Apr 2025

The headline rate was 0% mom, 4.7% yoy, down from 5.6% yoy in February, core inflation was 0.3% mom, 5.7%, down from 6.2% yoy, non-fuel inflation was 0.3% mom, 5.2% yoy, down from 5.6% yoy: Note: year-on-year changes in percent; Sources: KSH, own estimates Importantly, analysts expected the headl...

Lewandowski will submit a PEC on public security today, the opposition is pushing for amnesty for those involved in the January 8 attacks, and Justice Fux has called for a review of the charges against Bolsonaro
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Apr 2025

Today, the Minister of Justice and Public Security, Ricardo Lewandowski, will present a Constitutional Amendment Proposal (PEC) to Congress regarding public security. The proposal expands the federal government's powers and creates a mandatory fund to finance security activities. The opposition i...

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