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The Petro administration declared two simultaneous emergencies
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 20 Jan 2025

A critical region located on the border with Venezuela, where Ecopetrol produces oil, and coca plantations and cocaine laboratories abound, is currently the theater of war between the guerrilla of ELN, on one side, and FARC dissidents on the other. These events have been particularly harsh recent...

Not so fast
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 20 Jan 2025

Monthly activity indicators point to a certain slowdown in the economy in the fourth quarter of 2024. Given the restrictive monetary policy and a possibly reduced fiscal impulse, we expect the cooling of economic activity to persist in 2025, with GDP projected to grow by 2.2%. However, we are mon...

Food security emergency could risk inflation
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 20 Jan 2025

The beginning of 2025 does not seem to augur well for the Marcos government. It is under heavy siege for the so-called “sub-optimal” 2025 budget, for some, “unconscionable” budget. It is accused of corruption at all levels of government. Even retired generals and uniformed officials of the police...

The fog of war: understanding broader battlefield realities
UKRAINE · In Brief · 19 Jan 2025

On the eve of Donald Trump’s inauguration, let me provide an overview of the current stance on the battlefield in Ukraine to offer a better picture of where we stand and the position from which the announced negotiations might commence. I am not a military expert—I’ve said that many times. What I...

All eyes on CBRT and Ocalan
TURKEY · Report · 19 Jan 2025 · 2 responses

After the ousting of yet another CHP mayor, that of Istanbul borough Besiktas, CHP leader Ozgur Ozel declared war on Erdogan, promising unspeakable destruction. In reality, there is not much CHP can do to restrain Erdogan, perhaps short of quitting Grand Assembly sessions altogether. On the other...

Ukraine strikes Turkstream, pushing gas prices up 7%
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Jan 2025

Ukraine strikes gas pumping station in Russia that supplies gas to Europe via Turkey.Energy prices jump up to 7% amidst fears of a disruption of supply.Ukraine had previously cut off Europe from Russia by preventing gas transit through its territory earlier this month.Russia accuses the USA of be...

2024 was better than expected, but 2025 will be full of challenges
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 17 Jan 2025

The economy in 2024 performed better than initially expected. A preliminary estimate put growth at a rate very close to potential growth of 5%, due to significant investment expansion (7.5% y/y in January-September 2024) and exports (5.1% y/y in January-September 2024). Inflation was 3.35%, close...

GULF WEEKLY: Qatar mediates a Gaza ceasefire, Saudi’s Maaden plans bonds, Kuwait confirms sin tax, Gulf states re-engage with Lebanon
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 17 Jan 2025

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent oil touched a five-month high following substantive US sanctions on Russian oil tankers. * OPEC and the IEA still diverge on oil demand forecasts and by 0.6m b/d on the 2024 outturn. * Following the signing of its C...

NBK holds its base rate unchanged
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 17 Jan 2025

The National Bank of Kazakhstan announced today that it decided to keep the base rate at 17.25%, quoting the usual symptoms, such as rising inflationary pressures, some signs of domestic demand overheating, and the lack of spare production capacities. Inflation in Kazakhstan remained at 0.9% m-o-...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Are the clouds darkening over Armenia?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 17 Jan 2025

I argued in mid-2024 that Armenia's Eurobond outperformance (in particular relative to its higher-rated neighbor Georgia) was explicitly driven by perceptions of sharply reduced political and geopolitical risk premia. Internal challenges to PM Pashinyan failed to materialize over the course of 2...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 16 Jan 2025

A new wave of US sanctions was focused on the energy sector and caused new fears that the inflow of hard currency into Russia may decrease. As a result, the demand for hard currency increased, and the ruble moved well above USD/RUB 100 versus USD/RUB 99 at the end of 2024 (at the time of writing ...

Economic activity reportedly soared in December, albeit quite unexpectedly
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 16 Jan 2025

The Bureau of National Statistics announced that in 2024, the short-term indicator (that takes into account activity in industry, agriculture, construction, trade, transportation, and communications) soared to 6.2%. In 11M24, it was up by 5.6%, implying a rapid acceleration in December alone. Mea...

One last vote under a hawkish Central Bank Board
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 16 Jan 2025

A more dovish Central Bank Board is on the way, as President Petro announced that Laura Moisá and César Giraldo will become members of the Board. Ms. Moisá, an economist from Universidad Nacional de Colombia and a PhD in Economic Development from Unicamp in Brazil, is currently the Deputy Preside...

December CPI release: a downward surprise
ISRAEL · In Brief · 16 Jan 2025 · 1 response

The consumer price index reading for December was down by 0.3%, below market expectations for an index between 0.0% and 0.1%. This brought the annual inflation rate down to 3.2% from 3.4% in November, with core inflation (seasonally adjusted, excluding housing, fruits, and vegetables) at 3.1%—sli...

EU growth champion performs but challenges loom
POLAND · Report · 15 Jan 2025

Poland’s growth over the last three decades has been unprecedented at around 4% on average. It has been driven by fast productivity growth, trade liberalization, FDI inflows, competitive wage levels, diversified industry, a large pool of competent workers, as well as a stable institutional enviro...

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