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National Treasury commits to staying the fiscal course, introducing a new inflation target amid global uncertainty
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 13 Nov 2025

Delivering this year’s Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS), Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana noted that South Africa, like many other nations, is navigating a period of intensifying global competition and deepening economic and political divisions. The MTBPS, tabled annually during eithe...

USDT, OFAC and inflation
VENEZUELA · Report · 12 Nov 2025 · 1 response

We revise down our exchange rate and inflation forecasts for 2025 and present two scenarios for 2026, depending on whether or not U.S. OFAC sanctions on Venezuela are tightened. For November–December 2025, we assume that USDT supply expansion will continue, market acceptance of such will gradu...

Losing confidence, losing steam
PHILIPPINES · Report · 12 Nov 2025

The Philippine economy slowed sharply in the third quarter of 2025, expanding only 4.0% year-on-year—the weakest growth since 2011 outside the pandemic years—due to weak industrial performance, falling investment, and eroding business confidence amid governance scandals. Services remained the mai...

Lula’s approval ratings fell by two percentage points in a new poll, the House may vote on a public security bill, and the Prosecutor General will have his confirmation hearing in the Senate today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Nov 2025

The Paraná Institute released a new poll yesterday, November 11, assessing President Lula’s (PT) administration. After six months, approval ratings fell by two percentage points, reaching 45.9%. The Lower House may vote today on a public security bill. Rapporteur Congressman Guilherme Derrite pre...

Macroeconomic and geopolitical developments – Weekly report, November 12, 2025
ISRAEL · Report · 12 Nov 2025

Geopolitical tensions intensified along Israel’s northern border following massive military strikes against Hezbollah, while Phase-Two ceasefire talks in Gaza show little progress meanwhile. Domestically, the recent leak of classified investigation materials, which led to the dismissal of the Mil...

GCC Quarterly Chartbook and Economic Review
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 12 Nov 2025 · 1 response

This is the second edition of our quarterly chartbook and economic review, which provides a snapshot of the GCC across 18 slides. It starts with an overview of key themes impacting the region in recent months, particularly oil market trends. There are comparative graphs of some of the key economi...

There and back again
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 12 Nov 2025 · 1 response

The minutes of the Copom meeting maintained a tone similar to that of the statement released last week: more confident regarding the convergence of inflation, yet still cautious enough to avoid prompting market movements that could anticipate the start of the easing cycle.

Federal budget deficit widens
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 12 Nov 2025

With the 2026 budget nearing final approval in the State Duma, the 10M25 federal revenue figures were underwhelming. The Ministry of Finance reported overall revenue growth of just 0.8% compared to 10M24. Oil-and-gas revenues dropped 21.4% y-o-y, while non-O&G revenues rose 11.3%. Total revenues ...

Electric power service restored after nationwide blackout in the Dominican Republic
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 11 Nov 2025

This afternoon, the electric service was suspended throughout the national territory. The situation was caused by a failure in the transmission system, resulting in a cascading shutdown of several power generation plants. The blackout temporarily interrupted the operation of the Santo Domingo Met...

Deficit edges up to 4.9% of GDP in October; Finance Ministry’s 2026 target of 3.2% seen as overly ambitious
ISRAEL · In Brief · 11 Nov 2025

Fiscal deficit widens to 4.9% of GDP in October The Ministry of Finance reported yesterday a fiscal deficit of NIS 15.3 billion ($4.64 billion) in October, with the trailing 12-month deficit slightly increasing to 4.9% of GDP from 4.7% in September. The budget deficit peaked at 8.5% of GDP in Sep...

A lot to digest for today: October CPI, fiscal loosening, and a "protective shield" from the US
HUNGARY · In Brief · 11 Nov 2025

The October CPI-inflation data, reported this morning, is almost normal, although not exactly a reason for enthusiasm, due to rising yoy core inflation. Monthly headline inflation was zero for the third consecutive period, leaving the yoy rate at 4.3%, also entirely unchanged since July. Core inf...

Accommodating Growth Weakness: Balancing Support and Prudence
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 11 Nov 2025

The Philippine economy slowed markedly in the third quarter of 2025, expanding by only 4.0%, down from 5.5% in the previous quarter and 5.2% a year ago—well below the government’s full-year target of 5.5–6.5%. This clear growth deceleration, coupled with steady headline inflation at 1.7% in both ...

Rhetoric and reality in Congress and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Nov 2025

President Lula is expected to sign into law an income tax exemption for individuals earning up to R$ 5,000 per month. Meanwhile, Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira meets in Canada with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio to discuss the tariff sanctions imposed on Brazil. The release of new Quaest poll...

Economics: A complex public finance picture compounded with a bigger bailout of Pemex
MEXICO · Report · 10 Nov 2025 · 1 response

Public finances maintained in September the same basic trend seen in previous months. In the revenue column a deterioration in oil revenues contrasted with higher tax and non-tax revenues. In expenditures, there was a reduction in programmable spending that was particularly severe in the case of ...

The government says exchange rate policy will remain unchanged—the question is for how long
ARGENTINA · Report · 10 Nov 2025

The president and the economy minister have said that no significant changes in FX policy are in the cards. In this report, I evaluate whether, given the net demand for dollars from the SPN, the rest of the economy will have the capacity to generate the excess supply necessary to satisfy that dem...

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