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A somewhat hawkish hold by the MPC
ISRAEL · In Brief · 06 Jan 2025

A somewhat hawkish hold by the MPC There were no real surprises in the rate (hold) decision, but the announcement was more hawkish than we had expected. The same inflationary risks were copy/pasted from the last decision: ”there are several risks for a possible acceleration of inflation: geopolit...

A train with waste paper: Zelenskiy speaks plainly on security guarantees in Lex Fridman interview
UKRAINE · In Brief · 06 Jan 2025

Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s interview with Lex Fridman is in the spotlight. The Ukrainian president may have his flaws, but there’s no denying his exceptional communication skills. His conversation with Lex Fridman was a significant media effort aimed at engaging Western audiences. Even after three yea...

A dovish “hold” expected today
ISRAEL · Report · 06 Jan 2025

1. We expect a rate-hold decision today, with a more dovish bias. 2. Business sector optimism improved sharply in December. 3. Private consumption has been robust into year-end in anticipation of higher taxation.

A dovish "hold" expected today (Monday)
ISRAEL · In Brief · 05 Jan 2025

Geopolitics: The Lebanese border remains calm while Israel has neutralized military capabilities in Syria (recently a precise missile production factory). Periodic ballistic missiles fired from Yemen have been shot down before entering Israel. The Israeli negotiating team returned to Qatar in ord...

Time flies, nothing changes in Neverland
TURKEY · Report · 05 Jan 2025 · 1 response

In 2025, the ultimate goal of Messrs. Erdogan and Bahceli remains to secure eligibility for the former for a third run at presidency, while the main opposition party CHP will deploy full-court press for early elections. The reigning Republic Alliance is currently forcing the constitutional change...

GULF WEEKLY: Oman achieves 2024 fiscal surplus, KSA's current account falls into deficit, and Q3 non-oil GDP accelerates in Qatar and Abu Dhabi but contracts in Kuwait
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 03 Jan 2025 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent crude has rebounded to $76, the highest since October, on hopes of stimulus. * Qatar, Kuwait and Oman all announced plans for 15% top-up taxes on large multinationals. * The Saudi current account fell into deficit i...

Trend reversal or just a respite?
TURKEY · Report · 03 Jan 2025 · 1 response

December CPI-inflation surprised on the downside by coming in at 1%, visibly lower than market expectations – including ours -- of around 1.6%. At 44.4%, 12-month CPI inflation hence ended the year closer to the CBRT’s mid-point forecast of 44% in the November Inflation report, versus the consens...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Georgian authorities score an important symbolic victory
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 03 Jan 2025

The year starts exactly as it ended, with Georgia occupying our minds, as the outgoing President surrendered much more easily than anticipated despite promising to offer stiffer resistance to those (Georgian Dream) who were barely hiding their desire to see her gone, and the new President was ina...

Ukrainian gas transit agreement expired yesterday
HUNGARY · In Brief · 01 Jan 2025 · 1 response

A Happy New Year to all Readers! The 5-year gas transit agreement between Ukraine and Russia expired yesterday, without any extension or replacement, because of Ukraine's reluctance to continue. In principle, this means that from now on, no Russian gas shipments will be transited towards Europe t...

Essential CIS Politics: January 2025
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 31 Dec 2024

- Moscow and Kyiv exchange prisoners ahead of the new year as rumors of negotiations of a ceasefire spread. - Russia is suspected of sabotaging the Finnish-Estonian energy interconnection. - Protests continue in Georgia amidst the inauguration of a new president and the refusal of former Pre...

National Budget for 2025: more than a zero-sum game
PHILIPPINES · Report · 31 Dec 2024

The Philippines’ P6.3 trillion national budget for 2025 may not succeed in delivering on the lofty social goals enunciated by President Marcos in his July 2024 State of the Nation Address for 2025. The allocations involving some realignment disfavored the priority sectors of education, health and...

The Central Bank ends 2024 with a new reduction in the monetary policy rate
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 30 Dec 2024

At its last monetary policy meeting in 2024, the Central Bank decided to reduce its monetary policy interest rate (TPM) by 25 basis points, lowering it from 6.00% to 5.75% per year. Similarly, the rate for the permanent liquidity expansion facility (1-day Repos) was reduced from 6.50% to 6.25% pe...

Beating inflation: Doing beyond the usual stuff
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 30 Dec 2024

During the weekend, the Philippines’ central bank, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) announced that the December inflation rate could have tipped the scale at 2.3% -3.1%, well within the 2%-4% target. If inflation hits the mid-point of this forecast at 2.7%, the actual whole-year inflation ra...

The economy continued robust into year-end 2024
INDONESIA · Report · 30 Dec 2024 · 1 response

As the year 2024 comes to a close, the Indonesian economy has continued robust as reflected by a number of indicators. The most important indicator, Indonesia's GDP, reported annual growth of 5.03% for the first three quarters of 2024. Even though the rate of growth in the third quarter reached j...

Last (econ) words of 2024
TURKEY · Report · 30 Dec 2024

With Atilla having finally released me from his “broom closet” (see CBRT Cuts By 250 Bps, December 26, 2024), I thought I should share a few thoughts on last week’s CBRT move and a few other matters, before we conclude the year.

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