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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Motta placed two PECs on the plenary agenda yesterday, the CPMI into the INSS approved requests to summon former presidents of the INSS, and VP Alckmin will meet with the president of Mexico tomorrow
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Aug 2025

After meeting with party leaders yesterday, Lower House President Hugo Motta (Republicanos-PB) placed two constitutional amendment proposals (PECs) on the plenary agenda: one ends privileged jurisdiction (foro privilegiado) and the other is the so-called “Immunities PEC". Yesterday, the Joint Par...

Adjusting to challenges
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 27 Aug 2025

Guatemala experienced relative macroeconomic stability in H1 2025, despite rising global uncertainty from new U.S. tariffs, migration policy shifts and geopolitical risks. President Bernardo Arévalo has sought to strengthen institutional legitimacy and to advance an ambitious reform agenda focuse...

Elections, Congress and the Peru-Colombia territorial conflict; we forecast 2.2% growth in H2 2025; BCRP stands pat in August, but expected to cut 25 bp in September
PERU · Report · 27 Aug 2025

In this report, we cover three topics: political risks in the run-up to the general elections; assessment of the state of the economy following the strong June 2025 GDP performance; and our expectation that the Board of the Banco Central de Reserva del Perú will cut its policy rate by 25 bp at it...

Mind the calm, not the gap
CHILE · Report · 26 Aug 2025

In June the IMACEC was up 3.1% y/y, but that figure overstates momentum: much of the improvement reflects base effects and one-offs. Underlying consumption trends remain closer to stagnation than expansion. Business sentiment is still stuck in pessimistic territory, consistent with the slow pace ...

Business as usual: no policy change at today's monthly Monetary Council meeting
HUNGARY · In Brief · 26 Aug 2025

The MNB base rate and the interest rate corridor have been kept unchanged, at 6.5% and 5.5-7.5%, respectively, and the Council saw no reason to change its forward guidance either. This outcome was in conformity with the MNB's previous communication and analyst expectations alike. In Portfolio.hu'...

Motta schedules for next week the beginning of a debate on administrative reform, the INSS CPMI begins work today, and Lula will hold a cabinet meeting today to discuss the US tariff hike
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Aug 2025

Yesterday, Lower House President Hugo Motta (Republicanos-PB) announced that a General Committee meeting will be held on the House floor next Wednesday (September 3) to debate administrative reform. Meanwhile, the INSS CPMI will launch its work today with votes on dozens of requests to summon thr...

The government reveals its macroeconomic projections and medium-term budget figures
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 26 Aug 2025

The Kazakh government has announced the approval of the medium-term macroeconomic forecast and key budget figures. GDP is expected to grow by 5.4% in 2026, with average annual growth from 2026-2028 projected at 5.3%, indicating a slight slowdown after 2026. These figures seem reasonable given the...

Economics: Considerable reduction in multidimensional poverty in 2024 due to an increase in labor income
MEXICO · Report · 26 Aug 2025

The National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) published the results of the 2024 Multidimensional Poverty measurement. This is the first time Inegi has been in charge of the report, following the dissolution of Coneval, which had been responsible for calculating multidimensional pover...

Politics: Highly questioned Judicial Reform validation—prelude to a more opaque election model?
MEXICO · Report · 25 Aug 2025

The June 2 Judicial Election was questioned from the word go. It was criticized as a logistical nightmare with voters having to decide between hundreds of unknown candidates, with severely restricted limits on campaigning, and perhaps most importantly, the danger that the public electing the judi...

Tensions rise among Bolsonaro's allies and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Aug 2025

President Lula is holding a ministerial meeting to discuss reactions to the tariff hike imposed by the United States and the regulation of social media, with bills potentially being sent to Congress in the coming days. The Joint Parliamentary Committee of Inquiry (CPMI) on the INSS will meet to v...

Post-election political trauma and the first weeks with Nawrocki
POLAND · Report · 25 Aug 2025

Poland is at a critical political juncture following Karol Nawrocki's narrow presidential victory, which has destabilized the governing coalition and potentially set the stage for a return to right-wing rule. The governing coalition (KO-PL2050-PSL-Lewica) is experiencing unprecedented internal tu...

This side of the horizon
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 25 Aug 2025

The appreciation of the exchange rate in 2025 has had impacts on inflation, chiefly in the category of tradable goods. It is true that much of the disinflation in this group is explained by food prices, whose behavior depends on variables beyond the exchange rate, but there are also signs of a sl...

Lula will meet with his cabinet to discuss the 50% tariff hike by the U.S., the government faced a setback in the CPMI on INSS last week, and the Lower House analyzes the Immunities Constitutional Amendment
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Aug 2025

President Lula (PT) has called a meeting with his cabinet for Tuesday (August 26) to align the government’s position on the 50% tariff hike imposed by the United States on Brazilian exports and to discuss the proposed regulation of social media platforms and technology companies. Last week, the g...

Confirming the obvious: price caps will be extended beyond end-August
HUNGARY · In Brief · 24 Aug 2025

We had this coming from the first instance. PM Orbán has just announced that the government's administrative caps on the gross retail margins of certain food items and household goods will be upheld after August 31, when, in the legal sense at least, those measures were set to expire. He did not ...

An update on the Druzhba oil pipeline
HUNGARY · In Brief · 23 Aug 2025

During the night of August 22, the Unecha pumping station in the Bryansk region of Russia was hit by Ukrainian UAV drones, causing the whole station to go up in flames, as everyone can check by seeing the video published by the Ukrainian military. This was the fourth attack against the Druzhba oi...

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