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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The House approved the urgent status of the legislative decree on the IOF, Congress is expected to analyze presidential vetoes, and the Copom meetings will begin today to decide on the benchmark interest rate
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Jun 2025

As expected, the Lower House approved the urgent status for the legislative decree bill that overrides President Lula’s decree on the IOF tax. The margin was wide: 346 to 97. A session of the National Congress is scheduled for today. More than 60 presidential vetoes are pending review, some datin...

Another month of data shows little has changed
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 17 Jun 2025

Special points to highlight in this report: - China’s growth model remains structurally unbalanced, as the government continues to prioritize aggressive GDP targets without implementing the consumption-focused reforms needed for sustainable development. There was, however, some good news in M...

South Africa’s external position remains relatively sustainable
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 17 Jun 2025

Data released by the South African Reserve Bank shows that, during the first quarter of 2025, the deficit of South Africa’s current account narrowed slightly, to R35.6 billion, down from R39.3 billion in the fourth quarter of 2024. As a percentage of GDP, the deficit held steady at 0.5% over both...

Political focus shifts to elections; real GDP growth forecast trimmed; local bond prices expected to slide in H2
PERU · Forecast · 17 Jun 2025

In this forecast, we examine prospects for the July 2026 general elections, and how the economy is likely to respond. In the first section, we focus on the electoral calendar and the candidates, and try to predict the winner of the presidency. It is too early for our analysis to be anything other...

Economic growth looks strong in 5M25, and combined with elevated inflation support budget revenues
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 17 Jun 2025

The Bureau of National Statistics reported that the short-term indicator (a monthly flash estimate of economic activity that covers six key segments of the economy) grew y-o-y by 8.6% in 5M25 (up from 8.5% in 4M25). The number appears high, not least due to a more moderate economic growth a year ...

The PSD's political chessboard and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Jun 2025

The Lower House may vote on an urgent status for the legislative decree that suspends the president’s decree on the IOF. Congress will hold a session to analyze presidential vetoes, during which the request to open a Joint Parliamentary Committee of Inquiry (CPMI) on the INSS may be read. In the ...

Higher for longer?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 16 Jun 2025

The Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) communication signals that the interest rate will be kept at a high level as long as necessary to bring inflation to the target midpoint and re-anchor expectations. However, we believe it is unlikely that the Central Bank will maintain real interest rates clo...

May CPI surprised to the downside, but inflation remains near 3% – rate cut unlikely due to geopolitical risks
ISRAEL · In Brief · 16 Jun 2025

May CPI surprises with a 0.3% drop, driven by a sharp fall in prices for trips abroad May CPI in Israel surprised to the downside, falling 0.3% month-on-month, driven primarily by a sharp 15.5% drop in overseas travel prices. This brought the annual inflation rate down to 3.1%, from 3.6% in April...

Economics: Rising consumer inflation driven by PPI, combined with discordant monetary policy, make for a complex scenario
MEXICO · Report · 16 Jun 2025

Annual inflation in Mexico reached 4.42% in May 2025, with core inflation propelled to 4.06% by rising merchandise and services prices. At the same time, the non-core component increased 5.34% annually, driven especially by meat products (8.25%). Yet despite rising inflation, Banxico has lowered ...

Politics: Morena’s vote was way lower than expected in the Durango and Veracruz municipal elections
MEXICO · Report · 16 Jun 2025

On June 1, the country held its first judicial elections, along with municipal races in Durango and Veracruz. Normally these state elections would not spark much interest nationally. This time, however, the races and their results attracted attention as a possible bellwether to gauge Morena’s for...

The House should vote today on a legislative decree that revokes the President’s decree on the IOF, Congress is expected to discuss budget fund transfers, and presidential vetoes are scheduled to be analyzed tomorrow
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Jun 2025

A vote is scheduled for today on the urgent status of a legislative decree bill that seeks to override the President’s decree increasing the Financial Transactions Tax (IOF). There is pressure from sectors of the Lower House not only for the urgent status of the bill but also for a vote on the bi...

Economy weakens, although currency is stable and exports are robust
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 16 Jun 2025

Economic activity data for April confirmed earlier expectations. The robust 5.4% y/y growth recorded in March 2025 was not sustained in April, when economic activity grew by just 1.7% y/y. This slowdown is primarily driven by weakening domestic demand, in both public and private investment. In...

No easy solutions for China
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 16 Jun 2025

The two economic issues facing China are the US-China trade talks and economic stimulus. The first can be partly resolved through negotiations, although even tariffs of 10 percent would cause a drop in GDP. The agreement thus far appears to be an agreement to negotiate—not an actual contract. On ...

Our hot scorchy summer gets scorchier
TURKEY · Report · 15 Jun 2025 · 1 response

Unlike the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, the Iran-Israel clash poses existential threats to the Turkish economy and domestic policy, the politics author opines. He constructs 4 endgame scenarios and analyses their impact on President Erdogan’s policies. At this stage of the War Games, needless to ...

Israel’s war economy – economic outlook following the Iran strike
ISRAEL · In Brief · 14 Jun 2025

On June 13, 2025, Israel launched a major military operation inside Iranian territory, targeting nuclear sites, missile launch infrastructure, and senior military command centers. The strikes caused significant damage and reportedly killed several high-ranking Iranian officials and military offic...

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