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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Not so fast
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 18 Aug 2025 · 2 responses

Despite successive adjustments, the output gap estimated by the Central Bank (BC) has shown little sensitivity to the unemployment rate in recent years. This behavior could be justified by a rapid decline in the NAIRU over the period. However, when estimating it implicitly from the BC’s reference...

Government exploring fiscal reform possibilities
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 18 Aug 2025

With Magín Díaz at the helm of the new Ministry of Finance and Economy, discussion is underway about whether the government is preparing to propose a fiscal reform plan. Increasingly clear signals suggest that such a debate may be approaching. Diaz has been meeting with business sector representa...

União Brasil and the Progressista Party to announce a party federation, the appointments to regulatory agencies should be concluded this week, and Congress should vote on the CPMI on the INSS scandal
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Aug 2025

On Tuesday, August 19, União Brasil and the Progressista Party will formalize a federation between the two parties, called União Progressista. Together, the two parties will hold 109 seats in the Lower House and 14 in the Senate. The Senate Infrastructure Committee is expected to finally complete...

“Involution” is Beijing’s favorite word
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 18 Aug 2025

Special points to highlight in this report: - Chinese policymaking circles have become obsessed with the concept of “involution”, with senior policymakers from Xi Jinping on down demanding that it stop. We should expect that an important focus of policymaking in the next few months will be on...

Is the Jamaican election really too close to call or should we expect a change of government?
JAMAICA / BAHAMAS · Report · 18 Aug 2025

On Sunday, August 10, at a huge Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) mass rally in Kingston’s center at Half Way Tree, Jamaica’s Prime Minister Andrew Holness called the next election for September 3, 2025, exactly five years to the day after his previous crushing 42-21 seat victory over the Opposition Peo...

Sharp drop in GDP in Q2 not only due to the war with Iran; Gaza war poses growth risks ahead
ISRAEL · In Brief · 18 Aug 2025 · 1 response

Preliminary data for Q2 GDP show an annualized contraction of about 3.5%. The decline reflects the impact of the Israel-Iran war at the end of the quarter, which led to a partial shutdown of the economy in the last two weeks of June. Compared to a year earlier, GDP increased by 1.6%, but relative...

July print analysis: housing and seasonality pushed inflation up; the shekel offset some of the pressure
ISRAEL · In Brief · 18 Aug 2025

July’s CPI rose 0.4% m/m in line with our expectations, leaving headline inflation at 3.1% y/y, still slightly above the target range of the central bank (1%-3%). The print was a classic summer seasonal mix: Airfares increased 11% and domestic holidays 6.6%, both pushing up the index, while cloth...

El golpe avisa—the blow warns
ECUADOR · Report · 15 Aug 2025

Q2 2025 showed mixed signals of economic recovery, supporting the official GDP growth rate of 3.5% for this year. Non-oil exports registered growth of 5.6% q/q, although bananas and natural flowers showed declines of 26.8% and 18.5%, respectively. Tariffs of 15% imposed by the US on Ecuador will ...

GULF WEEKLY: Dubai’s Q1 GDP ahead of Bahrain's, $11bn Jafurah deal, PIF’s assets pass $0.9trn
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 15 Aug 2025

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil awaited the Trump-Putin meeting. A global plastics treaty, which threatened demand, collapsed. * The UAE retained top place globally in greenfield FDI attractiveness; Bahrain and Qatar improved. * Saudi manufacturing ...

A brief macro update
TURKEY · Report · 15 Aug 2025

As our weekly report is on its usual holiday till September, we thought a very quick update on the past week’s developments could be useful, hence this post. In a nutshell, growth was likely stagnant in the second quarter, the CBRT Survey now places the policy rate at 35% by the end of this year,...

Justice Moraes requested that a trial date be set for Bolsonaro’s case, Motta said the bill on the income tax exemption could go to the floor in the coming days, and a new party federation may be announced next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Aug 2025

Yesterday, August 14, Supreme Federal Court (STF) Justice Alexandre de Moraes requested that Justice Cristiano Zanin, president of the Court’s First Panel, set a trial date for former President Jair Bolsonaro and other defendants accused of participating in an attempted coup following the 2022 el...

Economy decelerates in search of new growth drivers
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 15 Aug 2025

Rosstat reported that in 2H25, GDP grew by 1.1% y-o-y, and the figure was even less impressive than the shocking 1.4% y-o-y growth in 1Q25. It looks as though the economy grew by 1.2-1.3% y-o-y in 1H25 with diminishing chances of growing above 2.0% this year. Moreover, one cannot rule out a furth...

Economic growth accelerates
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 15 Aug 2025

The Bureau of National Statistics reported that in 1H25 the nation’s GDP grew by 6.2% y-o-y and in July economic growth accelerated as the Bureau also reported that in 7M25, the short-term indicator (a monthly proxy for economic activity that covers over 60% of total production of goods and servi...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: How much time will it take to build a functioning TRIPP?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 15 Aug 2025

The various geopolitical angles surrounding the Washington Summit between Armenia and Azerbaijan have now been well analyzed in full detail. One particular (technical) consideration that has captured my attention has, however, been given virtually no consideration by experts. It relates to the so...

July CPI preview: inflation to remain above target, Gaza operation endangers rate-cut prospects
ISRAEL · In Brief · 14 Aug 2025

Tomorrow (Friday) we will get July’s CPI print, and we will be watching it closely. We expect a 0.3%-0.4% monthly increase, which would keep annual inflation at around 3.1%, still above the Bank of Israel’s 1%-3% target range. July is typically a low-to-moderate CPI month, with an average monthly...

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