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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Apr 15 -
Brazil Economics databank Apr 14
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Central America databank Mar 31
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Chile databank Apr 7
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Mar 5
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Dominican Republic databank Mar 20
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Ecuador databank Mar 21
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Gulf Countries databank Apr 17
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Hungary databank Mar 21
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India databank Mar 24
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Mexico databank Mar 25
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Panama databank Jan 28
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Peru databank Mar 5
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Philippines databank Apr 8
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Poland databank Feb 26
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Russia Economics databank Apr 11
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South Africa databank Apr 7
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Turkey databank Dec 24
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Ukraine databank Mar 6
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Venezuela databank Feb 4
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR: CHINA’S OUTLOOK IN THE TIME OF TRADE WARS...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Yellow lights flashing
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 31 Mar 2025
The inflationary scenario remains challenging despite some signs of economic slowdown. The economy is expected to continue operating at full employment, maintaining inflationary pressure, as revealed by its underlying indicators. In the labor market in particular, the slow adjustment of the un...
Lower inflation means rate cuts, but pushback is building from inflation and stability concerns
PHILIPPINES · Report · 31 Mar 2025
We believe that benign inflation readings and forecasts should allow the BSP to sustain its easing cycle at least twice this year and in baby steps. Modest easing is critical when uncertainties abound, particularly regarding the prospects for growth and financial stability. With a potentially wea...
Still a plateau? MPC arguments continue to weaken
POLAND · In Brief · 31 Mar 2025
Today’s flash release of inflation for March 2025 by Statistics Poland shows the same 4.9% year-on-year (y/y) for the third consecutive month. Our estimate of the core inflation in March stands at 3.5% y/y (net of food, energy and fuel prices). As far as the components of inflation are concerned,...
Marco Rubio's most excellent trip to Jamaica
JAMAICA / BAHAMAS · Report · 31 Mar 2025
From a Jamaican government perspective at least, Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s trip to Jamaica could not have gone better. At his post-meeting press conference with the Jamaican Prime Minister, issues ranging from our use of Cuban doctors and the current negative US travel advisory were all de...
House leadership faces pressure over amnesty bill for January 8 rioters, tax reform advances amid debates on legislative deadlines, and U.S. tariff changes and trade talks mark key international developments
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 31 Mar 2025
The Speaker of the House, Hugo Motta (Republicanos-PB), will meet this Tuesday, April 1, with party leaders to discuss the bill that grants amnesty to those involved in the January 8 events. The House bills are awaiting the installation of a Special Committee. This week, Hugo Motta may announce t...
Long-time gap between real wages and retail sales growth closed in January
HUNGARY · In Brief · 31 Mar 2025
For quite a while, but at least throughout the whole of 2024, government speakers and all sorts of analysts have been complaining about the weakness of consumption growth, in comparison with the expansion of real wages. Problem solved, one could say when looking at the January data (yoy changes i...
Ramadan 2025
INDONESIA · Report · 31 Mar 2025
This report was written on the last day of Ramadan, the fasting month for the Muslim people. In Indonesia, the last two days were holidays, not because of Ramadan but because of the Hindu holiday, observed especially on Bali Island but which has become a national holiday. At the same time, Cathol...
Kyiv signals election readiness in bid to counter Putin’s game
UKRAINE · In Brief · 31 Mar 2025
The Economist reported that Volodymyr Zelenskiy has instructed his team to prepare for elections as early as this summer. Allegedly, Parliament may lift Martial Law in May, following a potential ceasefire expected to begin on April 20th. Frankly, as of today, all of this sounds like a highly unre...
Israel weekly economic wrap: rising geopolitical tensions, 2025 budget passes, but fiscal risks remain amid signs of economic softening
ISRAEL · In Brief · 30 Mar 2025
The past week in Israel was marked primarily by heightened domestic tensions surrounding the judicial overhaul and the anticipated clash between the government and the Supreme Court. This stems from efforts to dismiss both the Attorney General and the head of Israel’s Security Agency (Shin Bet). ...
Modus vivendi?
VENEZUELA · Report · 28 Mar 2025
The Trump administration’s top priority on Venezuela at the moment is to show its base that it is delivering on campaign promises regarding immigration. Its strategies are grounded in pragmatic, transactional exchanges—not in promoting democracy or economic freedoms. Florida’s Republican bas...
Finishing the week with FAQs
TURKEY · Report · 28 Mar 2025
As the political upheaval continues, we try to address some of the queries we’ve been receiving from our audience in this report and take stock of where things stand right before the onset of the Id holiday. We shall, needless to say, continue to update our thoughts and scenarios on both polit...
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Panama granted yesterday a safe-conduct to former President Ricardo Martinelli, which had been requested months earlier by the Government of Nicaragua but had not been accepted by Panama
PANAMA · In Brief · 28 Mar 2025
Martinelli was initially an asylum seeker without safe-conduct. Yesterday, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs wisely granted him safe-conduct on "humanitarian" grounds. By handling the situation this way, the ministry strategically avoided inadvertently legitimizing Martinelli's claim of political a...
GULF WEEKLY: Bahrain budgets large deficit, Kuwait passes debt law, S&P turns negative on Sharjah, Oman GDP
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 28 Mar 2025
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Saudi unemployment fell to a record low of 7.0%, achieving the Vision 2030 goal five years early. * S&P placed Sharjah on a negative outlook and sees debt rising to 67% of GDP by 2028. * The UAE fined five banks and two i...
Webinar Replay - Mayhem in Turkey: Erdogan’s roadmap, the endgame and market implications
TURKEY · Report · 28 Mar 2025
In pursuit of eligibility for a third term, Erdogan has turned to coercion and foul play. What can be expected in the coming weeks? What will the impact be on macro policy and the market? How will this power play end? Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar featuring GlobalS...
New surveys on the Lula government to be released in the coming days, and Congress takes on tax and governance bills amid amnesty debates
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Mar 2025
Today, a new Atlasintel poll on the public approval of President Lula's government is expected to be released. The Speaker of the House, Hugo Motta (Republicanos-PB), may announce the rapporteur for the bill on income tax reform (PL 1087/25). In the House, the opposition is expected to continue p...