An update on the election campaign and opinion polls

HUNGARY - In Brief 28 Feb 2026 by Istvan Racz

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On February 24, Median, one of the more reliable pollsters domestically, published a new survey, in which Tisza's lead against Fidesz rose to 42:31 from January's 40:33, both as percent of the total voting population:Note: 'Egyéb párt' = other parties, 'Pártnélküli' = undecided; Source: 444.huThis was quite an outlier result, after altogether eight previous polls in the first two months of this year, in which Tisza's lead was 6%-points against Fidesz on average. In addition, Median measured a 55:35 lead for Tisza for those having a party preference and confident they would actually vote. 444.hu recalled that four years ago, Median measured a 49:43 Fidesz lead against the United Opposition in early March, so roughly at the same point of the election campaign.Unsurprisingly, this poll immediately grabbed a great deal of attention at both ends of the political spectrum. A usually independent-looking political analyst, a leading figure in that profession, said that in case Median's results were correct, then the election had been already decided in Tisza's favour. Asked if Median could have made such a big mistake, he said that proof on that will arrive only on election day, but he would be very much surprised if that had actually been the case.444.hu added that in 2022, Median actually over-measured the United Opposition and underestimated Fidesz, adding that in case one adjusted their current results for the same margin of error as they had in 2022, then Tisza would get 46-48% of the vote and Fidesz would get  38-40%, both on their party lists, on the basis of which some 88-90 seats will be likely decided out of the total 199. (The rest of the seats will go to the winner...