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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Jun 13 -
Brazil Economics databank Jun 16
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Panama databank May 13
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Peru databank Jun 12
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Philippines databank Jun 6
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Poland databank Apr 29
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Russia Economics databank Jun 16
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South Africa databank Jun 9
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Turkey databank Apr 24
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Ukraine databank May 12
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NEWS FLASH
LIVE WEBINAR TODAY - INDIA’S ROLE IN A RECONFIGURED GLOBAL ECONOMY...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Terror, uncertainty, paranoia
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 09 Jun 2025 · 1 response
It is challenging to interpret the events unfolding in Colombia. There are many antecedents from a distant past that Colombians thought were behind us. Back in the early nineties, many presidential candidates were assassinated in Colombia by the dark forces of narco-trafficking and paramilitarism...
Politics: Judicial elections—a setback for democracy and success for the 4T’s authoritarian impulses
MEXICO · Report · 09 Jun 2025
Mexico’s first ever judicial elections were held on June 1. While they were significant for a variety of reasons, there were no big surprises. The elections were the concretization of Morena, AMLO, and Claudia Sheinbaum’s judicial reform, justified as a way of correcting the “country’s universall...
The nationalization of João Campos and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Jun 2025
There is anticipation over the government’s submission to Congress of alternative measures to the IOF increase. The Supreme Federal Court (STF) continues its judgment on the liability of big tech platforms for third-party content posted on social media. The Court is also hearing depositions from ...
Can the bank of Jamaica declare Independence Day?
JAMAICA / BAHAMAS · Report · 09 Jun 2025
On Wednesday, May 21, the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) made a surprise one-quarter point cut in the policy interest rate, namely the rate offered to deposit-taking institutions (DTI’s) on overnight placements, from 6 percent to 5.75. Justifying the cut, BOJ Governor Richard Byles noted that inflation co...
Some like it hot
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 09 Jun 2025
The labor market remains tight, as evidenced by the new drop in the unemployment rate in April, after three quarters of stability. Our estimates suggest that labor market-driven pressures are likely to persist for quite some time. Even considering the economic slowdown projected by the Centra...
Russian macro: abrupt economic deceleration prompts CBR’s decisive action
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 09 Jun 2025
In mid-May, Rosstat published its preliminary estimate of 1Q25 GDP growth of 1.4% y-o-y. In the aftermath of last year’s 4.3%, growth the 1Q25 number was not only unimpressive but also largely unexpected as public spending once again massively increased at the very end of December 2024, implying ...
Haddad announced a series of measures to offset the IOF increase, the STF will hear from defendants in the coup d’état case, and the STF will resume deliberations on the civil liability of internet platforms on Wednesday
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Jun 2025
After a meeting with the Presidents of the Lower House, Hugo Motta, and the Senate, Davi Alcolumbre, Finance Minister Fernando Haddad (PT) announced a series of measures to offset the increase in the IOF tax. The package was announced late Sunday night, June 8. This week, the Supreme Federal Cour...
Fitch affirmed their BBB/Stable sovereign debt rating on Friday
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Jun 2025
Just one week after the latest review by a Top-3 rating agency, Fitch Ratings affirmed their BBB/Stable mark on Hungary on June 6. The report was quite negative in the sense that it identified three key areas where the agency saw deterioration since their previous review: growth outlook, short-te...
Ukraine’s "Spiderweb" embarrasses Russia ahead of peace talks, could trigger a ballistic "Oreshnik" response
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Jun 2025
Report: Ukraine’s "Spiderweb" embarrasses Russia ahead of peace talks, could trigger a ballistic "Oreshnik" response Ukraine strikes Russian bombers, allegedly causing up to USD 7 bn in damage Russian domestic military commentators criticize security and intelligence failsPeace talks in Istanbul ...
GULF WEEKLY: OPEC+ accelerates taper, TSMC moots UAE gigafab, Qatar and Oman fiscal outturns
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 06 Jun 2025
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC+ announced another 0.4m b/d production hike for July, but Brent rose to $66 on US-China talks. * Leaks of the US proposal to Iran suggested an enrichment compromise, contradicted by Trump. * Trump’s metal tariffs wil...
A mild slowdown in the first quarter of the year
INDONESIA · Report · 06 Jun 2025
The Indonesian economy posted its Q1 2025 GDP growth result at 4.87%, lower than the 5.03% annual growth in Q4 2024. Compared to the previous quarter, the Indonesian economy contracted by 0.98%, which followed the regular cycle. The fastest sectoral growth in Q1 2025 was in agriculture, forestry ...
Economic growth looks better in April, albeit marginally, prompting more action from the CBR
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 06 Jun 2025
Rosstat reported that the output of the five basic sectors (flash estimate of economic activity in industry, agriculture, construction, transportation, and trade) grew y-o-y by 2.0% in April and 1.6% in 4M25. Earlier, we quoted Rosstat while mentioning some improvements in the industry last month...
The STF continues adjudication of important cases, Haddad will meet with party leaders over the weekend to discuss the IOF tax, and the STF will hear from defendants in the case regarding the attempted coup
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Jun 2025
The Supreme Federal Court (STF) continued yesterday the joint trial of two appeals concerning the civil liability of internet platforms for third-party content and the possibility of removing offensive material at the request of the affected party, without the need for a court order. Today, the j...
Webinar Replay - Latin America: Fiscal Pressures and Political Shifts
COLOMBIA · Report · 06 Jun 2025
How are the key Latin American countries of Mexico, Argentina, Chile, and Colombia navigating their economic challenges amidst political changes? How will Mexico's growth outlook fare in the face of Trump’s trade policy uncertainties and the trend of economic slowdowns during the first year of...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Armenia—Pashinyan picks a fight he can't win
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 06 Jun 2025
One can't deny that PM Pashinyan has shown remarkable political agility since coming to power in 2018. He faced many adversities during that period, including two lost wars, but he survived those challenges as a genuinely smooth operator. However, the latest fight he has picked—with the Armenian...