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GULF WEEKLY: KSA and Bahrain issue sukuk, MBS and MBZ meet, the UAE speaks out against West Bank annexation
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 05 Sep 2025

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil dipped to $65 on rumors that OPEC+ may hike production again at a meeting on Sunday. * The Saudi and Emirati leaders, MBS and MBZ, met in Riyadh to discuss Palestine and bilateral relations. * Trump has offered NY may...

President Lula launched the “People’s Gas” program, the STF will resume the criminal trial against former President Bolosnaro next week, and the Senate may vote on the bill for compensatory measures against U.S. tariffs
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Sep 2025

President Lula yesterday launched the "People’s Gas” program (Gás do Povo), which will replace the Auxílio Gás model. The goal is to reach 15.5 million families, approximately 50 million people. Next week, attention will turn to the Supreme Federal Court (STF). The Court’s First Panel will resume...

The economy appears to be slowing down
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 05 Sep 2025

Russia's recent w-o-w inflation data showed a continuously deflationary trend, with consumer prices falling by 0.08% in the week ending September 1. Combining this with prior weekly inflation data suggests that August experienced around 0.25% m-o-m deflation, potentially lowering y-o-y inflation ...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Armenia's Pashinyan can still emerge victorious in next year's elections—against all odds
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 05 Sep 2025

Armenia stands at a fork in the road as Premier Pashinyan promotes an agenda of "peace through concessions" as the central message to the electorate in the runup to the Jun 2026 parliamentary elections. With its provision for the acknowledgment of Nagorno-Karabakh as an Azerbaijani territory and ...

There seems to be peace and fundamental agreement between the Economy Minister and the MNB Governor
HUNGARY · In Brief · 04 Sep 2025

This is something we have not seen for a long time, and especially not in the last almost two years of Mr. Matolcsy's period at the MNB. The domestic event of the week is the regular annual gathering of the Hungarian Economic Association, a high-profile conference where both Minister Nagy and Gov...

The STF concluded the first phase of Bolsonaro’s trial, negotiations continue over the amnesty bill, and Lula launches the “People’s Gas” program
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Sep 2025

The First Panel of the Supreme Federal Court concluded the first phase of the trial of former President Jair Bolsonaro and seven other defendants accused of attempting a coup d’état in 2022. Next week, on September 9, 10, and 12, the justices will resume the criminal proceedings with their votes....

Mr. Nagy on fiscal policy and rating agencies in the election period
HUNGARY · In Brief · 04 Sep 2025

Following a brief episode of successful heart surgery during the summer, Economy Minister Márton Nagy is now back in office and is fully operative. In the past few days, he paid a visit to London, primarily to talk to credit rating agencies, as he has just informed the public. Returning from that...

CHP vs Goliath
TURKEY · In Brief · 04 Sep 2025

Turkey’s Judicial year started with little fanfare, but a sucker attack on CHP’s Istanbul flank. The 45th District Court passed interim ruling. Suspending fraud in the Party’s passed delegates selection for the Grant Convention. It sacked Istanbul Chairman and the 196 delegates elected by the str...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 04 Sep 2025

Aug 21 Baiterek State Holding: The company will issue two tranches of Eurobonds worth up to $500 mln and up to KZT100 bln. KMG: The company’s net profit fell by 3% y-o-y in 1H25, while revenues increased by 6% y-o-y. Aug 22 Kazatomprom: The company’s net profit fell by one half in 1H25. Aug 25 S&...

The consequences come afterwards
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Sep 2025

GDP grew 0.4% in the second quarter, slightly above average forecasts, 0.3%, but on top of a revised expansion in the first quarter, from 1.4% to 1.3%, that is, broadly in line. Compared to the same period last year, growth reached 2.2%, accumulating 2.5% in the first half of the year and 3.2...

Kazakhstan macro: reaching new local highs
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 03 Sep 2025

Recent weeks have been eventful: economic statistics showed improvement, and the Kazakh government released its medium-term macroeconomic forecast, outlining several key budget parameters for 2026 and beyond. However, the detailed 2026 draft budget was unavailable as of this writing. The National...

Little respite in August inflation
TURKEY · Report · 03 Sep 2025

Consumer prices rose by a somewhat higher than expected 2.0%, m/m, in August, with the 12-month rate easing modestly further to 33.0% from 33.5% in July. Monthly PPI inflation posted a 2.5% increase in the month, on the back of a marked increase in energy/electricity prices, as the 12-month rate ...

Israel launches Gaza ground offensive, raising growth and fiscal risks
ISRAEL · In Brief · 02 Sep 2025

Yesterday, some 40,000 reservists got emergency call-ups as Israel prepares for the “Chariots of Gideon II” operation. The plan is described as a step-by-step move to take control of Gaza. Most senior security officials opposed the government’s decision to start the operation. They preferred the ...

South Africa’s ongoing structural reforms provide some tailwinds to growth amid global uncertainty
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 02 Sep 2025

• South Africa’s growth: The domestic economy began the year on a subdued trajectory, with underlying structural constraints persisting alongside intensifying global headwinds, including rising protectionist measures. Progress in implementing government’s structural reform agenda, particularly ...

Economics: The data published in August reflects an economy that remains weak
MEXICO · Report · 02 Sep 2025

Economic data published in August indicate that while the economy improved its performance in the second quarter and in July, it remains weak. Industrial activity continues to show a slight decline, and services, while experiencing relatively high growth, are seeing some sectors affected by lower...