Mixed feelings caused by the July BOP data, once again
HUNGARY · In Brief · 18 Sep 2023

The preliminary July BOP data has been reported. To make it user-friendly, we are presenting below a table with the key items in ratio-to-GDP terms below, for the first seven months of 2022 and 2023, and also for H1 2023. This format should allow the reader to see what important changes have take...

Fiscal Expansion and the Monetary Policy Error of 2019
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 18 Sep 2023

With the unemployment rate below 8% and strong expansion of household consumption, Brazil’s economy can only be classified as heated. But in light of the looming difficulties of meeting the primary result target for 2024, the government wants to maintain GDP growth, with a corresponding increase ...

President Lula will speak at the opening of the UN General Assembly tomorrow, the STF will resume adjudication of the demarcation of indigenous lands, and the Central Bank is expected to reduce the basic interest rate to 12.75%
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Sep 2023

On Tuesday, September 19, President Lula (PT) will deliver the opening speech of the UN General Assembly, in New York. The next day, he is expected to meet with the President of the United States, Joe Biden. On Wednesday, September 20, the Supreme Federal Court (STF) will resume adjudication of t...

Pithy data commentary
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 18 Sep 2023

We comment on the key data and news in the Caucasus and Central Asia: Armenia: Aug marks third consecutive month of deflation. Armenia: Central bank cut the refinancing rate by 50bpts to 9.75 percent. Armenia: Seasonally adjusted GDP grew in 2Q23 on a QoQ basis. Armenia: IMF lookin...

Russian dry dock in Crimea damaged
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Sep 2023

On September 13 in Sevastopol two dry docks were damaged by Ukrainian drones. A ship and a submarine in it were also damaged. It could take months to repair them and remove the debris. Ukraine used 10 British cruise missiles for the strike. Cruise missiles are very expensive and in short supply. ...

A strong CPI print increases the likelihood of another hike
ISRAEL · Report · 18 Sep 2023

1. Inflation in August surprised on the upside as service price inflation remains elevated. 2. The CA surplus + net FDI fundamentals remain net positive but contracted compared to 2022. 3. Policy rates will most likely move higher in October.

Kazakh economy continued to expand in August
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 18 Sep 2023

The Bureau of National Statistics reported that the short-term economic indicator (an aggregate measure of economic activity in six main sectors of the country’s economy) grew by 5.3% y-o-y in 8M23. This rate was the same as in 7M23 implying that in August alone the economy reproduced more or les...

The CBR hiked the key rate by 100 bps to 13%
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 17 Sep 2023

The Board of Directors of the Russian Central Bank decided to raise the key rate once again on September 15 and quoted the usual reasons behind this move. Among those are elevated inflation (i.e., above the 4% target), high inflation expectations (the CBR itself expects inflation to move from the...

Diplomatic setbacks and more
TURKEY · Report · 17 Sep 2023

President Erdogan has suffered a string of diplomatic setbacks over the past week, which might adversely affect his mood on the critical US trip. The politics author pays a lot of attention to Erdogan’s foreign policy initiatives, because they are the “icing on the cake” that Minister Simsek will...

Spending plan 2024: assuming a narrower deficit amid dominating uncertainty
UKRAINE · In Brief · 17 Sep 2023

On September 15, the Cabinet submitted the draft for the 2024 spending plan to the parliament. The design of the 2024 spending plan closely mirrors what we observed last year. The authorities anticipate active military action continuing until mid-2024, leading to a planned reduction in defense sp...

Central Asian countries discuss water shortages and trade
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Sep 2023

On September 14 the presidents of the 5 countries met in Tajikistan. This is the 5th summit for Central Asian presidents. They started in 2018. They also invited the President of Azerbaijan. His country is not considered part of Central Asia, but it has a maritime border on the Caspian Sea with T...

North Korean leader tours Russian defense installations
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Sep 2023

On September 16 Kim Jong Un continued his tour of the Russian Far East. He went to an aircraft factory and visited a warship.  This is only Kim's 7th visit abroad in his 12 years in power. This underscores the importance he attaches to his relationship with Russia. This is his first trip abroad s...

GULF WEEKLY: Oil rises in tight market, Sharjah issues sukuk, Oman’s current account returns to surplus, Houthis talk peace in Riyadh
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 15 Sep 2023 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent crude rose to $94 as forecasts point to a potential Q4 supply gap of over 3m b/d. * The IEA and OPEC clashed over longer-term forecasts; the IEA expects demand to peak this decade. * Turkey criticized plans for an I...

President Lula will speak at the opening of the UN General Assembly next week, the CCJ continues discussions on Tax Reform, and the Central Bank will meet to decide on the basic interest rate
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Sep 2023

The presidents of the House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), and the Senate, Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG), will accompany President Lula on his trip to the United States next week. Next week, the Constitution and Justice Committee (CCJ) continues with the debate on Tax Reform. On Tuesday, there will be a public...

Webinar replay: China - How risky is shadow banking?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 15 Sep 2023

What are the systemic risks in China’s shadow banking industry today? What constraints will this put on China's future growth? Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar featuring Andrew Collier discussing the likely risks caused by Zhongrong and the shadow banking industry.