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The paradox in Lula's popularity, the results of the first-round municipal elections and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Oct 2024

Following the first round of municipal elections, congressional activity is expected to increase. The Lower House may conclude the vote on the bill establishing the Management Committee for Tax Reform. Meanwhile, the Senate will analyze Gabriel Galípolo’s appointment to the presidency of the Cent...

On new data releases: weak industry, strengthening consumption, and moderate surpluses on the BOP
HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 Oct 2024

1. Industrial output fell 0.5% mom, 3.5% yoy in August, he latter following -6.4% yoy in July. January-August was -3.8% yoy. So far this year, the usual mantra has been that most of the obvious weakness is caused by cars and batteries. But this time around, the foregoing preliminary numbers were ...

Politics: The Sheinbaum Presidency—first positions and implications
MEXICO · Report · 07 Oct 2024

There were no big surprises in Claudia Sheinbaum’s first day in office and her two inauguration day speeches. Everything points to a continuation of outgoing President Andres Manuel López Obrador’s social programs (a central axis of his and Morena’s so-called "Fourth Transformation"), ideology, a...

Center-right parties win big in the first round of the municipal elections, the Senate will hold Galípolo’s confirmation hearing tomorrow, and the STF will hear Google’s case on Wednesday
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Oct 2024

The results of the municipal elections confirm the predominance of center-right parties, reinforcing their role as an important indicator for the 2026 general elections. The data shows that the "Centrão" bloc has consolidated its dominance. Tomorrow (October 8), the Senate’s Economic Affairs Com...

Will the BoI sell FX in the market?
ISRAEL · Report · 07 Oct 2024

1. We have seen an elevated geopolitical risk vis-à-vis Iran in recent days. 2. This is likely to support a weaker shekel (depending on the level of escalation), in which case we think the BoI is likely to sell FX in the market. 3. Recent private consumption indicators for August point to d...

Kazakhstan placed Sovereign Eurobonds worth $1.5 bln
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 06 Oct 2024

Last week, Kazakhstan issued 10Y Sovereign Eurobonds for the first time since 2015. The issue was $1.5 bln, and the spread over the US Treasuries was 88 bps. The main purpose of this borrowing was the refinancing of the bond, which is due to mature on Oct 14 (and the amount is the same - $1.5 bln...

Red herrings, dark realities
TURKEY · Report · 06 Oct 2024

President Erdogan and his loyal ally Mr. Bahceli are seriously freaking out about a potential Israeli assault so much so that, the president is claiming the Jewish holy land covers parts of Turkey. As far as the humble political analyst can investigate, the possibility of any type of military cla...

Further significant shekel depreciation could result in BoI intervention
ISRAEL · In Brief · 06 Oct 2024

Geopolitics: Israel has escalated intensely its attacks on Hezbollah attacking Beirut as well as commencing a limited ground operation. Hezbollah continues to fire missiles into the northern part of Israel. Markets are awaiting Israel’s response to Iran’s ballistic missile attack last week with g...

A provisional measure established a 15% tax on profits of multinational companies, the STF discusses whether international treaties can prevent the imposition of the IRPJ and CSLL taxes, and the municipal elections will be held on Sunday
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Oct 2024

A provisional measure was published in a special edition of the Federal Official Gazette that establishes an effective tax rate of 15% on the profits of multinational companies. The tax rate applies to companies with an annual revenue of at least 750 million euros (R$ 4.5 billion). Today, the Sup...

GULF WEEKLY: Oil spikes with Iran-Israel conflict, Saudi fiscal forecasts revised, Oman gets another rating upgrade, Abu Dhabi’s GDP rebounds in Q2
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 04 Oct 2024

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil has spiked by 9% to $78 amidst concerns about a widening Israel-Iran conflict. * Saudi Arabia revised down growth and fiscal forecasts, seeing deficits of -2.8% of GDP in 2024-27. * The Saudi PMI rebounded to the high...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: CA positions improve in the CCA in 2Q24, allowing for useful FX reserve buildup
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 04 Oct 2024

The publication of current account data for the CCA economies for 2Q24 allows us to assess the overall external performance in the region in the second quarter of the year. The 2Q24 data for our CCA economies, which was published this week, has shown an improving external position (for all count...

Webinar Replay - Colombia Macro, Politics and Reforms Update
COLOMBIA · Report · 04 Oct 2024

Visit our calendar page to to watch the replay of our webinar, "Colombia Macro, Politics and Reforms Update", which details economic conditions in Colombia, the country's political outlook and the forecast for reforms.

Inflation notably higher than expected
TURKEY · Report · 03 Oct 2024

Consumer price inflation was 3%, m/m, in September, visibly higher than the market (around 2.2%) and our slightly higher (2.3%) forecasts, the error in our forecast largely stemming from higher-than-expected price increases in food and beverages, and transportation services. The 12-month CPI infl...

Today is the last day of the electoral campaign period on TV and radio, Haddad met with Zanin to discuss the taxation of international profits, and with Febraban's president to discuss online betting
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Oct 2024

Today is the last day of the electoral campaign period on TV and radio. It is also the final day for debates between candidates running for various mayoral positions across the country. The first round of the election takes place on Sunday, October 6. Yesterday, Finance Minister Fernando Haddad m...

Economic growth gradually decelerates in August
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 03 Oct 2024

Rosstat reported that in 8M24, the output of the five basic sectors (industry, agriculture, construction, transportation, and trade) was up by 5.2% y-o-y. In August alone, it increased by a mere 1.7%. This sharp deceleration was mainly caused by agriculture, as it was down y-o-y by 14.7% and 3.2%...

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