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Webinar Replay and Slide Presentation - Argentina’s Economic Crossroads: Currency valuation, IMF talks and the path to stability
ARGENTINA · Report · 04 Apr 2025

Is the Argentine peso overvalued and will there be another devaluation? Are Argentina’s national accounts balanced at the current ARS level? What are the timelines and conditions for IMF negotiations? How will inflation dynamics develop? What impact will credit penetration have? What is the curre...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Armenia - What happened in Gyumri?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 04 Apr 2025

While the world is justifiably focused on US tariffs, I ponder on the much more esoteric, but no less exciting topic of regional elections in Armenia. Last week the second-largest city in the country, Gyumri, held municipal elections that delivered a result that may have very important consequen...

Webinar Replay - Ecuador Runoff: Shifting votes and the road ahead
ECUADOR · Report · 04 Apr 2025

What is the impact of the debate on the election? How have vote intentions changed since the first electoral round? What are the challenges and opportunities for Daniel Noboa during this second round campaign? Is it possible to expect a moderate government from Luisa Gonzalez should she win? How ...

Motta has appointed Lira as the rapporteur for the bill on income tax, Lewandowski will meet with Motta next week to present a PEC on public security, and the STF will discuss two important cases next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Apr 2025

The President of the House, Hugo Motta (Republicanos-PB), has officially appointed Arthur Lira (PP-AL) as the rapporteur for the bill on income tax exemption. A special committee will be established next week. On Tuesday, April 8, the Minister of Justice and Public Security, Ricardo Lewandowski, ...

Mexico Macro Monitor: Private consumption falls YoY in January for second consecutive month
MEXICO · In Brief · 03 Apr 2025

Private consumption in January: Second consecutive annual decline driven by sharp contraction in imported goods consumption, in addition to persistent weakness in domestic goods spending. Private consumption fell -0.9% YoY in January 2025, marking the second consecutive decline after maintaining ...

Mexico Macro Monitor: Gross fixed investment recorded its fifth consecutive decline in January 2025
MEXICO · In Brief · 03 Apr 2025

Gross fixed investment in January: Annual decline recorded for the fifth consecutive month, again due to a sharp contraction in construction investment. Gross fixed investment (GFI) contracted by -5.9% YoY in the first month of this year, continuing the negative trend that began in the second hal...

The US tariffs on Kazakhstan look peculiar, but the overall impact of the US trade policy won’t be unnoticed
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 03 Apr 2025

As the US administration published the list of countries and tariffs imposed on many countries, Kazakhstan found itself in a quite peculiar situation as its foreign trade with the US so far was insignificant. According to the Kazakh Bureau of National Statistics, exports to the US accounted for a...

Decent print, but brace for bumps ahead
TURKEY · Report · 03 Apr 2025

Consumer prices rose by a less than expected 2.5%, m/m, in March (versus consensus forecasts of around 2.9%) with the annual CPI-inflation rate falling by a full percentage point to 38.1%, from 39.1% in February. Monthly Domestic-PPI inflation posted a 1.9% increase in the month, lowering the 12-...

Trump announces reciprocal tariffs impacting Brazilian exports, President Lula’s popularity drops even further, and the rapporteur for the tax exemption bill is announced
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Apr 2025

U.S. President Donald Trump announced yesterday that he will impose a 10% tariff on Brazilian imports—the minimum rate proposed by the American president. The measure will take effect starting Saturday, April 5. The 10% rate for Brazil is lower than the initial expectations of the U.S. government...

Economic activity remains moderate in February, and the trend to persist in 2025
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 03 Apr 2025

Rosstat reported that the output of the five basic sectors (a monthly proxy for aggregate economic activity accounting for industry, agriculture, construction, transportation, and trade) grew by 1.7% y-o-y in 2M25 and 0.3% y-o-y in February alone. The y-o-y numbers look unimpressive (especially i...

Government macro forecast changes in the right direction but at the wrong time
HUNGARY · In Brief · 03 Apr 2025

Early this week, Mr. Nagy, the economy minister, announced a scaling back of the government's 2025 GDP growth forecast to 2.5% from the 3.4% included in the annual budget, parallel to raising this year's forecast for average CPI-inflation to 4.5% from the original 3.2%. These are exactly the figu...

"Liberation Day" tariffs have limited direct impact on the GCC but have hurt the oil price
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 02 Apr 2025

As a hot take on the impact of the US tariff announcements on the GCC, here are two positives, two negatives, and two areas that are currently unknown. There will be much more to discuss as responses and secondary impacts become clearer. Positives 1. GCC competitiveness in the US (and elsewhere) ...

Bi-weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 02 Apr 2025

Mar 19 Energy Ministry: Mr Akkezhenov (formerly Deputy Minister) has been appointed as the new Minister of Energy. National nuclear company: In 2024, Kazatomprom’s net profit increased by 38%. Energy Ministry: Kazakhstan held talks with French EDF. These negotiations are part of the process of ch...

Mexico Macro Monitor: General Pre-Guidelines for Economic Policy for 2026
MEXICO · In Brief · 02 Apr 2025

“General Pre-Guidelines for Economic Policy”: High optimism regarding growth, inflation, and public deficit for 2025; relative pessimism in the oil market. The Mexican Ministry of Finance (SHCP) presented the so-called “General Pre-Guidelines for Economic Policy (PCGPE in Spanish)”, which include...

Pachakutik support for Gonzalez
ECUADOR · In Brief · 02 Apr 2025

As a follow up to my webinar of last Monday, I wanted to present our perspective on how Pachakutik could vote on April 13. By the end of Sunday, March 30th, Pachakutik decided to officially support Luisa Gonzalez. Leonidas Iza conditioned this support to the following points: no oil neither minin...

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