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Politics: The National Development Plan—where is Mexico headed?
MEXICO · Report · 28 Apr 2025

Mexico’s immediate future will largely be determined by the National Development Plan (NDP). The 2025-2030 version of the plan was recently approved by Morena and its allies in Congress. The plan had sparked optimism in some business circles given the perception—and hope—that President Claudia Sh...

The PL rethinks the Amnesty Bill and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Apr 2025

The Labor Day holiday on Thursday, May 1, is expected to slow political and judicial activity in Brasília. On Tuesday, April 29, the PP and União Brasil will formalize the creation of their new party federation, União Progressista. The PSDB and Podemos may also announce a merger. On Saturday, May...

Inflation: bad now, higher uncertainty ahead
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 28 Apr 2025

In recent months, there has been an acceleration in underlying inflation measures and an increase in the diffusion index. Industrial goods prices have also accelerated, reflecting the depreciation of the real throughout 2024. Since exchange rate pass-through occurs with a lag, it is possible that...

One step back and one step forward in boosting growth: the impact of U.S. tariffs and progress on the mine’s reopening
PANAMA · In Brief · 28 Apr 2025

Assessing the potential impact of U.S. tariffs on Panama’s economyThe U.S. administration suspended country-specific tariffs for 90 days starting April 9 but maintained the 10% baseline tariff on all goods and countries, including Panama. It remains unclear whether the U.S. government will ultima...

Mexico Macro Monitor: In the first quarter of 2025, the trade balance recorded a high surplus due to an increase in non-automotive manufacturing exports and a reduction in consumer and capital imports
MEXICO · In Brief · 28 Apr 2025

In January-March 2025, the trade balance recorded a surplus of 1,097 USD million which compares to a 2,706 USD million deficit in the same period of the previous year. This result meant that the negative trade balance observed in January was offset by surpluses in February and March. CHART 1 Trad...

Keep arguing, guys
VENEZUELA · Report · 28 Apr 2025

Nine months after the 2024 presidential elections, the Maduro government is consolidating its political position but faces the suspension of oil licenses and the secondary tariffs imposed by the United States on countries that purchase Venezuelan oil, already perturbing the fragile economic norma...

This week will be slow due to the Labor Day holiday on May 1, the União Brasil and PP parties will officially form a party federation tomorrow, and PSD and Podemos parties may also formalize a merger
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Apr 2025

Due to the May 1 holiday (Labor Day) on Thursday, this will be a quiet week in both Congress and the Judiciary. Over the past two years, Lula has taken part in Labor Day events in São Paulo, but the rallies drew low turnout. As a result, his participation this year remains uncertain. Tomorrow, th...

What Xi Jinping won’t do
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 28 Apr 2025

Many outsiders tend to view Xi Jinping as a rational economic actor who implements policy with an authoritarian hand, who would make the same decisions economically that the U.S. would. However, that is not always true. The priorities of the Chinese state often differ from those of the U.S. There...

Tough and eerie times
TURKEY · Report · 27 Apr 2025

The 6.2 Richter scale tremor that shook Istanbul but caused very minor damage is a stark reminder that we are sitting on a time bomb. There is consensus among seismologists that Istanbul is due for a 7.2-7.4 quake “sometime in the future”. Of course, the question is when. On exact timing, experts...

GULF WEEKLY: IMF/WB revise down GCC forecasts, Adnoc signs Chinese LNG contracts, S&P puts Bahrain on Negative outlook
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 25 Apr 2025

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Chatter that OPEC+ might accelerate its taper because of Kazakh overproduction weighed on oil. * There were some positive vibes regarding US-Iran talks, which will now involve a technical group. * The IMF and World Bank r...

Mexico Macro Monitor: The Global Indicator of Economic Activity shows very weak annual growth (0.5%) as of February
MEXICO · In Brief · 25 Apr 2025

The Global Indicator of Economic Activity shows very weak annual growth (0.5%) as of February, with a 1.0% monthly increase using seasonally adjusted figures The Global Economic Activity Index (IGAE) continued to show weak annual growth in February 2025 (0.5%), after expanding by 0.2% in January ...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 25 Apr 2025

Financial markets were affected by a couple of the most recent important factors in the past few weeks. First of all, investors were looking at macroeconomic statistics in order to get some clarity about the timing of a forthcoming CBR’s rate cut cycle. Recent statistics point to some deceleratio...

Federico Siqueira is the new Minister of Communications, next week will be quiet due to the Labor Day holiday on May 1, and the União Brasil and PP parties will formalize a party federation on April 29
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Apr 2025

President Lula has sworn in Frederico de Siqueira Filho as the new Minister of Communications. He stepped down as president of Telebras to take the position. Next week is expected to be a quiet one in Congress due to the May 1 Labor Day holiday. On Tuesday, April 29, the president of União Brasil...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: CCA public external debt service appears (mostly) manageable over 2025-26
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 25 Apr 2025

I continue exploring the external side of the CCA economies as the more challenging global backdrop in the wake of Trump's tariffs may add to the already worsening CA dynamics that I discussed earlier in Apr. In this report I examine the public external debt profile and debt service for 2025 and...

How much does Argentina's new economic plan differ from the previous one?
ARGENTINA · Report · 25 Apr 2025

Two weeks into Argentina’s new economic plan, which received strong support from the IMF, we have a clearer picture of what we can and cannot expect from it. Three things stand out. First, it is not the third phase of the same plan, as the government claims, but a new plan that was introduced bec...

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