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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Higher than expected Q2 growth, fueled by stock changes
TURKEY · In Brief · 01 Sep 2025

According to data announced by Turkstat, second quarter GDP growth markedly exceeded expectations, including of this author, in both sequential and annual terms, coming in at 1.6%, q/q, and 4.8%, y/y, respectively (Graph 1). As usual we briefly focus on the sequential data here, which reflects th...

An early and a brief start
TURKEY · Report · 31 Aug 2025

We’ve decided to end the summer holiday of our Sunday Weekly earlier than planned, with a very brief update on the latest political and economic developments. Turkey experienced the hottest August in at least 30 years, which triggered crop failures, forest fires, and general lethargy among cit...

GULF WEEKLY: Kuwait capex cuts narrowed the deficit, UAE plans free trade partnership, UN sanctions on Iran to snap back
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 29 Aug 2025 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * European countries started the process of implementing “snapback” UN sanctions on Iran. * Saudi banks sold $2.25bn in 10-year Tier 2 bonds, one of them green. * Humain broke ground on its first data centers and launched a...

Lula said the income tax bill should be put to a vote next week, Tarcísio is gaining more momentum as a potential candidate for 2026, and the trial against Bolsonaro is scheduled to start on Tuesday
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Aug 2025

In an interview with Record, President Lula said that the vote on the Income Tax Bill will take place next week. The vote, however, depends on negotiations between the Finance Ministry and party leaders. Over the past few days, São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos) has gained mome...

Aug CCA highlights: Armenia and Georgia keep policy rates unchanged, Azerbaijan revises down 2025 GDP growth, remittances to Uzbekistan keep on growing
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 29 Aug 2025

I touch on the key macro-political events in the South Caucasus during the latest month: Armenia: CPI declines to 3.4% YoY in Jul Armenia: Central Bank keeps policy rate unchanged at 6.75% Armenia: Government debt inches down in 2Q25 Armenia: GDP grows by 5.9% YoY in 2Q25 Armenia: Monthly ...

Economic performance looks increasingly unimpressive
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 28 Aug 2025

According to Rosstat, the output of the five basic sectors, a monthly proxy for overall economic activity, grew y-o-y by just 0.2% in July and 0.9% in the first seven months of 2025, indicating a rapid slowdown. Industrial production increased by 0.7% in July and 0.8% in 7M25, though July marked ...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 28 Aug 2025

Demand for OFZ has declined recently as many investors are taking profits, with long-term yields falling below 14% and further drops appearing uncertain, even with a potential 200 bps rate cut by the CBR in September. Market participants are also cautious about additional supply from Minfin due t...

Which way will the Constitutional Court go?
COLOMBIA · Report · 28 Aug 2025

This is a pivotal moment for the composition of Colombia’s Constitutional Court. Justice José Fernando Reyes, aligned with the “defense of institutions” bloc, will soon resign, leaving a critical vacancy. To fill it, the Supreme Court has nominated Patricia Balanta, Carlos Camargo and Jaime Humbe...

Questions I've been frequently asked since my last report
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 28 Aug 2025

Here are my answers to the main questions market participants have been asking me as the midterm election approaches. What do the polls say about President Milei's chance of winning the midterm election? Current polls position Javier Milei's La Libertad Avanza (LLA) as the favorite for the Octobe...

Motta said the income tax bill has good momentum for approval, the government is working to ensure the compensatory measures remain in the bill, and the Senate approved the bill to combat the “adultization” of children online
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Aug 2025

The President of the Lower House, Hugo Motta (Republicanos–PB), stated that the report from the special committee that debated income tax exemption for those earning up to R$ 5,000 will reach the floor with strong momentum for approval. The government is working to ensure that the compensatory me...

Israel slows bond issuance in September, but fiscal risks point to higher borrowing ahead
ISRAEL · In Brief · 27 Aug 2025

The government’s monthly issuance plan for September 2025 is to raise NIS 11.0 billion in tradable bonds on the local capital market in four weekly tenders, averaging NIS 2.75 billion per week. This marks a slower pace than in previous months: In July, issuance totaled NIS 12.37 billion, after a ...

Motta placed two PECs on the plenary agenda yesterday, the CPMI into the INSS approved requests to summon former presidents of the INSS, and VP Alckmin will meet with the president of Mexico tomorrow
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Aug 2025

After meeting with party leaders yesterday, Lower House President Hugo Motta (Republicanos-PB) placed two constitutional amendment proposals (PECs) on the plenary agenda: one ends privileged jurisdiction (foro privilegiado) and the other is the so-called “Immunities PEC". Yesterday, the Joint Par...

Adjusting to challenges
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 27 Aug 2025

Guatemala experienced relative macroeconomic stability in H1 2025, despite rising global uncertainty from new U.S. tariffs, migration policy shifts and geopolitical risks. President Bernardo Arévalo has sought to strengthen institutional legitimacy and to advance an ambitious reform agenda focuse...

Elections, Congress and the Peru-Colombia territorial conflict; we forecast 2.2% growth in H2 2025; BCRP stands pat in August, but expected to cut 25 bp in September
PERU · Report · 27 Aug 2025

In this report, we cover three topics: political risks in the run-up to the general elections; assessment of the state of the economy following the strong June 2025 GDP performance; and our expectation that the Board of the Banco Central de Reserva del Perú will cut its policy rate by 25 bp at it...

Mind the calm, not the gap
CHILE · Report · 26 Aug 2025

In June the IMACEC was up 3.1% y/y, but that figure overstates momentum: much of the improvement reflects base effects and one-offs. Underlying consumption trends remain closer to stagnation than expansion. Business sentiment is still stuck in pessimistic territory, consistent with the slow pace ...

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