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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The conundrum of the Constitutional Assembly
ECUADOR · Forecast · 20 Oct 2025

On November 16, Ecuadorians will return to the polls to decide on four questions proposed by President Noboa, of which the most important is the convocation of a Constitutional Assembly. The need to make changes to unviable articles of the current constitution, which was approved under the ant...

The struggle for control of the right and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Oct 2025

At the end of the week, President Lula will travel to Indonesia and Malaysia. During this trip, he may have a meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump. Expectations remain high regarding the appointment of a new Supreme Court justice. The government may announce fiscal measures to offset the expi...

Economics: Stagnant employment sets the stage for further weakening of private consumption in late 2025 and early 2026
MEXICO · Report · 20 Oct 2025

The total employed population in Mexico shrank -0.3% yoy in August and on average for the first eight months of this year it remains flat, according to ENOE figures. This flatlining follows the trend of slowing job growth that began last year and is in line with the sputtering of the economy over...

Politics: Mexico’s foreign policy under Morena's governments
MEXICO · Report · 20 Oct 2025

Since the 1930s, Mexican foreign policy has been based in theory on the Estrada Doctrine as codified in two principles: non-interference in the internal affairs of other countries and national self-determination. Independently of domestic policies and whichever president was in office, Mexico’s a...

At cross purposes
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 20 Oct 2025

From the second quarter onward, signs of economic slowdown became increasingly evident. To ensure a consistent path toward inflation convergence at the target midpoint, it is crucial that this trend be maintained. However, the risks of interruption are far from negligible. The government has ...

Lula will travel to Indonesia and Malaysia this week, fiscal measures to offset the expiration of MP 1,303 are still being considered, and the Senate will hold two public hearings to discuss the income tax exemption bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Oct 2025

This week, President Lula will travel to Indonesia and Malaysia, where there is a possibility of a meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump. He departs on Thursday. Another important issue awaiting definition is the announcement of fiscal measures to offset the expiration of Provisional Measure (...

Rating agencies reaffirm Israel’s rating but stress that any improvement depends on fiscal consolidation and political stability
ISRAEL · In Brief · 19 Oct 2025

Moody’s reaffirms Israel’s rating and upgrades growth outlook Moody’s reaffirmed Israel’s Baa1 rating with a negative outlook on October 16, 2025, describing the Gaza ceasefire as credit-positive but emphasizing that risks remain elevated. The agency raised its growth forecasts to 2.5% for 2025 a...

A most fateful week
TURKEY · Report · 19 Oct 2025

The CBRT/MPC will convene on Thursday and the next day, a court in Ankara may rule that CHP’s 38th extraordinary convention was rigged, turning the party over to former chairman Kemal Kilicdaroglu (the base-case scenario). The politics author also suspects that Turkey may wake up to new corporate...

Messrs. Putin and Trump are coming to Budapest
HUNGARY · In Brief · 19 Oct 2025

It was only two days ago that we wrote in our forecast report that Hungary's foreign relations are developing now with all eyes kept on the upcoming parliamentary election, and that the roles are clearly distributed: Messrs. Putin and Trump support PM Orbán, whereas the European mainstream suppor...

Panama’s floating debt: scope, spillovers and solutions
PANAMA · Report · 17 Oct 2025

Floating debt has turned into an off-budget fiscal shock absorber. By our definition, recognized (meaning "accepted") accounts payable plus turnkey work-in-progress, it reached about US$5.2 bn (6% of GDP) in 2024, up by roughly US$3.1 bn, or 3.1 percentage points of GDP, since 2019. The build-up ...

GULF WEEKLY: Oil at a 5-year low, Dubai's strong H1 fiscal surplus, Gaza ceasefire holds
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 17 Oct 2025

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil had its worst week since 2020, touching $60 amidst oversupply and demand concerns. * OPEC still sees a balanced market in 2026, whereas the IEA forecasts nearly 4m b/d of oversupply. * The IMF revised up growth foreca...

All eyes on the budget, debt ratings and the ballot boxes
HUNGARY · Forecast · 17 Oct 2025

Our quarterly forecast update is based on two main technical assumptions. One is that US and, indirectly, global trade policies will remain the same as they were known at the end of September 2025. This should include primarily the tariffs agreed between the US and the EU during the summer, and a...

Mauro Vieira had a “very productive” conversation with Marco Rubio, the STF begins analysis of the constitutionality of the payroll tax relief policy, and Lula will launch the Reforma Casa Brasil Program next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Oct 2025

Yesterday, Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira met in Washington with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio to discuss a possible meeting between President Lula (PT) and U.S. President Donald Trump. Vieira described the conversation as “very productive.” Today, the Supreme Federal Court (STF) begins, vi...

Strong tax revenues keep 2025 deficit on target near 5% of GDP
ISRAEL · In Brief · 17 Oct 2025

The Ministry of Finance reported a fiscal deficit of NIS 9.5 billion ($2.9 billion) in September, with the trailing 12-month deficit steady at 4.7% of GDP, unchanged from August. This marks a significant improvement from the 8.5% peak recorded in September 2024. Revenues in September totaled NIS ...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Current accounts in the CCA take a positive turn in 2Q25
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 17 Oct 2025

Poring through BoP data may not be the most exciting thing in economic analysis, including because it is quite backward looking, but in my mostly frontier countries it helps elucidate key insights on the external side. The 2Q25 data for the CCA space has now been published for all economies save ...

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