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On September 20 Baku said it would not retake more of Nagorno-Karabakh. Armenian forces there promised to lay down their weapons and negotiate about giving the region back to Azerbaijan. The ceasefire was mediated by Russian peacekeepers. This is a success for Azerbaijan. But Armenia would have l...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Q&A on the 3rd Karabakh War

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 20 Sep 2023

The fast-developing story from Nagorno-Karabakh (NK) has made us bring forward a bit our CCA Weekly by offering our initial thoughts on this all-important development in the Caucasus. Our Sep 19th In Brief on the results of the Yerevan City Council elections, which we interpreted as a strong sig...

The rapporteur of the PLDO said he would be willing to change the zero-deficit target, the STF will resume adjudication of the so-called “time frame” case, and the Copom will announce the Selic today

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Sep 2023

Yesterday, the rapporteur of the Budget Guidelines Bill (PLDO), Deputy Danilo Forte (União-CE), said that he would be willing to change the zero-deficit target for next year. He said he thinks the government would, too. Today, the Supreme Federal Court (STF) will resume adjudication of the so-cal...

Slide Presentation: South Africa - Outlook from the world stage

SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 20 Sep 2023

Get insight into how South Africa's international and domestic politics affect its macroeconomic outlook with the presentation from our webinar, "South Africa - Outlook from the world stage".

Demand for labor increases slightly + low housing inventory supports rental price inflation

ISRAEL · In Brief · 20 Sep 2023

Demand for new workers (job vacancies) increased slightly in August by 1% m/m to 119k) following a steady decline since July 2022 (151k). This is the first reversal (albeit modest) in the downward demand for new workers, and this supports our assessment that growth remains fairly steady and the l...

Azerbaijan: Central bank keeps policy rate unchanged at 9.0 percent, maintains slightly dovish message

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 20 Sep 2023

The Central Bank of Azerbaijan kept the policy rate constant at 9.0 percent on Sep 20th. There was little uncertainty about this decision given the broader message that the central bank has been sending to markets in recent months. While it had signaled the end of the rate-hiking cycle already at...

Azerbaijan attacks Armenian-held territory

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Sep 2023

On September 19 Azerbaijan confirmed its operation to retake Nagorno-Karabakh. The region is legally Azerbaijani but has been held by Armenia since 1991. There were loud explosions in Armenian-held Nagorno-Karabakh. Azerbaijan says it is using high precision weapons saying it is an anti-terroris...

The diplomatic crisis between the Dominican Republic and Haiti persists.

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 19 Sep 2023

It has now been one week since the onset of the diplomatic conflict between the Dominican Republic and Haiti. On Monday, September 11, 2023, the Dominican Government made the decision to close the land border with Haiti at the Dajabón pass. They formally requested the Government of Haiti to halt ...

Arthur Lira confirms that the government should receive more support in Congress, Pacheco says Brazil is fortunate to have a President who cares about the environment, and the Copom meets today to discuss the interest rate

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Sep 2023

The president of the House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), said that he trusts in a calm coalition and that the government can have a base of between 340 and 350 votes. In other words, this is a positive message for the Planalto Palace that the Ministerial Reform can improve the relationship between the Ex...

Economics: The 2024 budget proposal offers the same administration formula, although holes are increasingly apparent in the gov’t approach

MEXICO · Report · 19 Sep 2023

Earlier this month, as President López Obrador approaches his final year in office, his administration sent Congress a 2024 budget package that was very much true to the tenor of its four previous iterations. It served up the same combination of austerity in many areas of public administration an...

Armenia: Yerevan City Council elections point to rising Armenia risk premium amid already challenging NK backdrop

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 19 Sep 2023

The Sep 17th Citi Council elections signify a considerable loss for the ruling Civil Contract Party. The elections for the Yerevan City Council are in essence a competition for choosing the mayor of Yerevan for the next 5 years. The new 65-seat Council is due to take office on October 10 and mayo...

The last rate hold decision was unanimous, despite concern regarding shekel depreciation

ISRAEL · In Brief · 19 Sep 2023

The last rate hold decision was unanimous but shekel depreciation is worrisome for the MPC. In the protocol of the decision: “the depreciation of the shekel continues to be a significant factor delaying the convergence of the inflation rate back to the target, the shekel depreciation in recent mo...

The surprising results of the 2023 Census and their implications for public policy

PANAMA · Report · 18 Sep 2023

Considering the latest census data, significant demographic trends are emerging in Panama, carrying implications for public policy. The population is exhibiting higher levels of education and is also aging. Women have progressed in terms of their socioeconomic condition, and there is a growing re...

The end of the CPIs favors the government and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Sep 2023

President Lula will give the opening speech at the UN General Assembly in New York. On Thursday, September 21, the deadline for sanctioning the CARF project ends. In the Supreme Federal Court (STF), the justices resume adjudication of the demarcation of indigenous lands. The Monetary Policy Commi...

Politics: The administration’s political use of public spending and its implications both today and for the next government

MEXICO · Report · 18 Sep 2023

The structure and distribution of the 2024 expenditure budget confirms a longstanding tradition of governments in Mexico and elsewhere of spending heavily for electoral purposes in the run-up to a major election year. The President's political priorities are perfectly expressed in the distributi...