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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Jan 17 -
Brazil Economics databank Jan 16
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Central America databank Jan 9
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Chile databank Dec 3
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Jan 8
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Dominican Republic databank Dec 23
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Ecuador databank Jan 21
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Gulf Countries databank Jan 24
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Hungary databank Jan 24
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India databank Jan 24
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Mexico databank Jan 23
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Panama databank Sep 11
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Peru databank Dec 9
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Philippines databank Jan 10
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Russia Economics databank Jan 15
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South Africa databank Jan 8
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Turkey databank Dec 24
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Ukraine databank Nov 12
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Venezuela databank Jan 7
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - POLAND: ECONOMIC TRENDS, POLITICAL SHIFTS, AND THE ...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Armenia-Azerbaijan tensions flare again as Aliyev claims to be preparing a “Special Military Operation”
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 15 Jan 2025
- Baku threatens to launch a “Special Military Operation” against “fascist” Armenia. - A video of former President of Armenia Levon Ter-Petrosyan talking about ethnic cleansing during the First Nagorno Karabakh War triggered outrage in Azerbaijan. - Armenia’s leaning towards the West provokes a...
As December inflation meets expectations, BCRA announces it will reduce crawl to 1% in February
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 15 Jan 2025
Yesterday, INDEC unveiled the December inflation number. It came at 2.7% m/m, in line with expectations, bringing 2004 annual inflation to 118%, down from 211% in 2023. The satisfactory headline December print encouraged BCRA to announce a reduction in the exchange rate crawl from 2% to 1% starti...
High CPI-inflation data for December: unexpected and unusual
HUNGARY · In Brief · 14 Jan 2025
For December, everyone expected a sharp upturn by the headline CPI-inflation rate from 3.7% yoy in November: analysts predicted 4.4% yoy, the MNB expected 4.3% yoy, the latter together with unchanged 4.4% yoy for core inflation, fuel prices pushing up the headline rate. However, the actual jump b...
Economics: Indicators for October and November confirm a more pronounced deceleration likely to extend well into 2025
MEXICO · Report · 14 Jan 2025 · 1 response
The seasonally adjusted 0.3% yoy drop in activity the Global Indicator of Economic Activity (IGAE) registered for October marked its first outright contraction since early 2021. The latest result marked an extension of the slowing trend that began in early 2Q 2024. Services continued to decelerat...
President Lula signing two significant bills and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Jan 2025
President Lula (PT) will sign two significant bills this week: one addressing the renegotiation of state debts with the federal government and the other concerning the regulation of Tax Reform. Both are expected to be sanctioned with vetoes. On Thursday, January 16, Arko Advice is hosting a debat...
The ANC’s January 8th statement post-2024 elections and coalition governance
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 13 Jan 2025
President Cyril Ramaphosa delivered the African National Congress's (ANC) January 8th Statement this past weekend, marking the party's 113th anniversary. This address came in the wake of the 2024 general elections, where the ANC, for the first time since 1994, failed to secure an outright majorit...
The consequences of reaching above the limit
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 13 Jan 2025
The reduction in the trade balance surplus in 2024 is largely explained by import performance. We estimated a model to project the growth of imported quantum, aiming to analyze its relationship with economic growth and movements in the real exchange rate. The model indicates that a 1% increase in...
Politics: Sheinbaum crafts a new and different public security policy
MEXICO · Report · 13 Jan 2025
Although economic issues remain the main challenge Claudia Sheinbaum’s presidential administration faces, public security is a close second and perhaps more daunting problem and could be its Achilles heel. What appears clear is that former President Andrés Manuel Lopez Obrador’s policy of “hugs ...
Ukraine tried to hit the TurkStream gas pipeline, so far unsuccessfully
HUNGARY · In Brief · 13 Jan 2025 · 1 response
In recent news of the business as usual category, retail sales grew 0.6% mom, 4.4% yoy in November, marking impressively strengthening consumer demand growth, net fiscal revenue from VAT jumped 16.5% yoy in the same month and 7.5% yoy in January-November, and November industrial output was down 1...
The BoI stressed demand concerns rather than declining supply constraints
ISRAEL · Report · 13 Jan 2025
1. A cautious monetary stance will most likely postpone easing until end-May. 2. The BoI dilemma centers around the concern regarding a post-war consumption surge, a concern we think is exaggerated. 3. Business confidence improved in December due to the ceasefire, while consumers remain pe...
Reconciliation talks with Kurds pick up pace
TURKEY · Report · 12 Jan 2025
The politics author attempts to tell the convoluted story of how President Erdogan and his partner Mr. Bahceli are planning to achieve their ultimate aim of securing eligibility for the former for a third run at the presidency. It is going to be through a new Constitution. With all opposition par...
The BoI appears more concerned about excess demand on inflation
ISRAEL · In Brief · 12 Jan 2025
Geopolitics: The Northern border remains calm with the cease-fire holding. The Israeli air force with the US/GB attacked military and infrastructure in Yemen. Some drones from Yemen were shot down last week but no sirens went off. Low-level hostilities continue in Gaza. The Israeli negotiating te...
Policy shift or feint?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 10 Jan 2025
Recent statements in China have been interpreted by some analysts as a change in policy. Xi Jinping is now warning of “challenges” in China’s economy. These and related comments have been viewed by some as hinting at a possible change in the central government's attitude toward economic stimulus....
GULF WEEKLY: Oil touches 3-month high, KSA issues $12bn bonds, Bahrain’s non-oil GDP rebounds but oil output is weak, Lebanon elects a president
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 10 Jan 2025
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil briefly rose above $80, a three-month high, on cold weather and sanctions concerns. * Regional PMIs ended the year strongly, particularly in Saudi Arabia and the UAE. * KSA issued $12bn in bonds, albeit short-dated, 7...
Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 10 Jan 2025
Dec 26 NBK: The regulator has approved a 5-year strategy for digitalization of the financial market regulation. Dec 28 President: Mr. Tokayev and the Russian President Mr. Putin had a telephone conversation and discussed the situation around the crash of an Azerbaijani plane near Aktau. Jan 3 Pre...