GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

1. Inflation in February surprised on the upside and remains both sticky and broad-based. 2. Most macro factors support weaker inflationary pressure going forward, except for the likelihood of further shekel weakness. 3. At this stage, we expect a 0.5% rate hike on April 3, as the BoI is li...

Saudi Arabia’s ratings improve while Kuwait’s political crisis deepens

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 20 Mar 2023

There were some significant and potentially market-moving developments in the Gulf over the weekend and so we are putting out a quick note, rather than waiting to roll up our analysis into our weekly briefing on Friday. * Saudi Arabia received a rating upgrade from S&P and a positive outlook f...

Inflation remains sticky and broad based

ISRAEL · In Brief · 19 Mar 2023

Inflation surprises on the upside February’s CPI increased by 0.5% m/m compared to expectations for 0.3%. Core inflation remains stable year-on-year at 5.1%. Both housing rental (6.8% y/y) and non-housing services (5.7%) accelerated. 75.6% of all CPI items are up more than 3% y/y compared to 72.8...

Dangerous liaisons, dripping reserves

TURKEY · Report · 19 Mar 2023

With Kilicdaroglu widening his lead in the polls, and his Nation Alliance having started inching up in the parliamentary race, Turkey’s timid pro-opposition pundits are now openly voicing the threat of Erdogan stealing the election. The first essay by the politics author addresses this question, ...

Putin visits occupied Ukrainian city

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Mar 2023

On March 19 Vladimir Putin went to Mariupol as was reported by the Russian news agency TASS. This is his first visit to the port city. The city was captured in May 2022 after a bitter battle of several weeks. Russia claims the city was part of its sovereign territory. On March 18 he visited Crime...

International Criminal Court issues arrest warrant for Putin

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Mar 2023

On March 17 the ICC also issued an arrest warrant for the Russian Children's Rights Commissioner. The ICC said their arrest warrant was issued on suspicion of the mass kidnapping of Ukrainian children. Russia has boasted that it has taken thousands of Ukrainian children to Russia in order to save...

Russia evades sanctions by ordering from Kazakhstan

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Mar 2023

On March 17 Reuters reported that Russian companies are ordering Kazakh companies to buy forbidden items from the West on their behalf. These items are then sold to Russia. Russia is also doing this via Turkey and other former Soviet states. It seems that Turkey is now taking action to stop its c...

GULF WEEKLY: Oil tanks, Iran deal reverberates, Riyadh Air is launched, UAE surplus at 11% of GDP

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 17 Mar 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil dropped sharply to $72, the lowest since 2021, partly due to derivatives market factors. * Gulf banks are insulated from the current crisis but Saudi and Qatar own 17% of Credit Suisse. * Moody’s sees the Saudi-Iran rap...

January BOP data slightly disappointing, no rate cut likely on March 28

HUNGARY · In Brief · 17 Mar 2023

Well, January BOP, published today, was not really splendid. If it had been only about the trade account, it would have been great, the annualised single-month deficit ratio falling to 1% of GDP from 2.8% in January 2022, the merchandise deficit doing reasonably well (stable in absolute terms, do...

Explosion at Russian internal intelligence office

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Mar 2023

On March 16 it killed 3 people and injured others. It is unclear if the explosion was caused by enemy action at Rostov on Don. The regional governor said that this explosion was caused by electric wiring. Ukraine has not commented on the incident. Ukraine has carried out numerous attacks in Russi...

Webinar replay - Hungary: Macroeconomic maneuvers and fraught foreign policy

HUNGARY · Report · 17 Mar 2023

How will Hungary’s tight monetary and fiscal policies serve it in 2023 amid economic recession? With rapid BOP improvement on markedly decreasing energy import prices paired with weak domestic demand, will there be disinflation? How will Hungary’s continuing outlier status within the EU and NATO ...

Justice Lewandowski granted the injunction requested by the PCdoB on the State-Owned Companies Law, Minister Haddad will present the new fiscal framework today, and today is the last day for senators to collect signatures for the January 8 CPI

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Mar 2023

Justice Ricardo Lewandowski responded to the PCdoB's request for an injunction and suspended parts of the State-Owned Companies Law that restrict the appointment of politicians to management positions. He is the rapporteur for the case in the STF that questions the law. Today, the Minister of Fin...

Belarusian President in Iran

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Mar 2023

On March 13 President Lukashenko met his Iranian counterpart in Teheran. The two presidents signed an agreement on cooperation up to 2026. Belarus is not fighting in Ukraine but is allowing Russians to attack Ukraine via Belarus. Iran is part of Lukashenko's tour of the few authoritarian states t...

Russia: a brief market watch

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 16 Mar 2023

Brent/Urals spread recently narrowed to about $25/bbl (from $32-34/bbl seen in December). Although, it didn’t support the ruble as Brent fell below the $75/bbl benchmark amid renewed concerns about a global slowdown. The current thinking is that the economic problems may turn more acute amid rece...

Slide presentation - Hungary: Macroeconomic maneuvers and fraught foreign policy

HUNGARY · Report · 16 Mar 2023

Get insight into Hungary's macroeconomic outlook and the foreign policy challenges it's facing with the presentation from our webinar, "Hungary: Macroeconomic maneuvers and fraught foreign policy".