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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

A brief lull in excitement
TURKEY · Report · 18 Jan 2026

Much fun has gone out from domestic politics as, for reasons to be explored, President Erdogan unilaterally ceased his attacks on CHP. Instead, the new agenda is his succession plan, involving his son Bilal. Erdogan has no intention to retire; Bilal is being groomed for the post in case of an eme...

GULF WEEKLY: Iran protests subside, Saudi minerals deals, Oman cabinet reshuffle
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 16 Jan 2026

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil touched a two-month high of $66 when Iran-US tensions peaked mid-week, then eased. * At least 3,000 were killed in Iran, but Trump backed off plans for military action, for now at least. * The US did announce a 25% ta...

Economic growth remained strong in December
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 16 Jan 2026

The Bureau of National Statistics reported that the short-term indicator—a flash estimate of economic activity across six main sectors—rose by 9.4% in 2025. For 11M25, it was up 9.3%, suggesting a bit of acceleration in the final month. Transportation and warehousing led the way with 20.4% growth...

CIS Essential Politics: January 1-15
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 16 Jan 2026

Headlines: - Corruption scandal in Ukraine claims Timoshenko. - Ukraine reshuffles cabinet. - Humanitarian crisis in Ukraine as Russia annihilates the Ukrainian energy sector. - US seizes tanker linked to Russian shadow fleet.

EU decisions regarding Hungary reportedly postponed until the election
HUNGARY · In Brief · 16 Jan 2026

Early this week, the President of the Republic officially called the parliamentary election for April 12, the earliest legally possible date, in line with long-time expectation, but running counter to some local speculations that PM Orbán may act to postpone the election if developments are not f...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Current accounts posted further gains in 3Q25, reinforcing improvement in external buffers
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 16 Jan 2026

Wading through BoP data may not be the most exciting thing in economic analysis, including because it is quite backward looking, but in my mostly frontier countries it helps elucidate key insights on the external side. The 3Q25 data for the CCA space has now been published for all economies save ...

The deficit and the debt
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 16 Jan 2026

The Minister of Finance, seeking to defend his legacy (an arduous task, I acknowledge), stated in an interview that “public debt is increasing because of high interest rates, not because of the deficit”. This is not true, as we will show in this Report. The primary deficits recorded in 2023, 2024...

Mining reopening and Canal projects to drive growth, with inflation near zero, unemployment high and fiscal compliance dependent on a land sale to the ACP
PANAMA · Forecast · 16 Jan 2026

We project real GDP growth of 4.3% in 2026 and 6.0% in 2027. The sharp acceleration in 2027 is based on the possible reopening of the copper mine at Donoso and the start of large Canal-related investment projects that we have reported on previously. Donoso is in the legal planning phase, while th...

Blackout 20/4: what’s next?
UKRAINE · In Brief · 16 Jan 2026

Kyiv and other major Ukrainian cities such as Odesa, Kharkiv, and Dnipro are experiencing blackouts, with only short periods when life briefly returns to normal before the next airstrike. All of this is happening against the backdrop of prolonged freezing weather, with temperatures around -10 to ...

December CPI flat; annual inflation drops to 2.6%, within target after three years above it; The rate-cutting cycle is expected to continue into 2026
ISRAEL · In Brief · 16 Jan 2026

We attach a brief update following last night’s CPI release. A fuller analysis, including our inflation forecasts for 2026–2027, will follow early next week. December CPI flat, in line with expectations; annual inflation eases to 2.6%, within target after three years above it Israel’s consumer pr...

Recent data point to a sustained recovery in economic activity in Q4, alongside cooling consumer confidence
ISRAEL · In Brief · 15 Jan 2026

The Monthly Index of Economic Activity, published by the Bank of Israel, rose 0.3% in December, in line with its long-term growth trend. The index, which reflects the average monthly growth estimate for the period from October to December, suggests that growth in the fourth quarter resumed its ri...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 14 Jan 2026 · 1 response

Dec 25 Finance Ministry: The Ministry of Finance and the National Bank of Kazakhstan are teaming up to create a joint strategy for managing the country’s national debt. KMG: The company has bought Eurobonds totaling $500 million, including $250 million maturing in 2047 and $249.9 million maturing...

Fiscal deficit in 2025 falls to 4.7%, well below forecast
ISRAEL · In Brief · 14 Jan 2026

Israel’s fiscal deficit narrowed more than expected in 2025, falling to 4.7% of GDP from 6.8% in 2024 and below the original 5.2% target. Nominal government spending rose by 4.8%, while revenues surged by 13.8%. Tax collections surprised on the upside even after accounting for the tax hikes imple...

October FDI Inflows Signal Heightened Policy and Governance Risks
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 13 Jan 2026

Foreign direct investment (FDI) net inflows to the Philippines declined by 40 percent year on year in October 2025, falling to USD 642 million from USD 1.1 billion in October 2024. While inflows were higher than in the preceding three months, suggesting some short-term stabilization, the annual c...

Republican budget tax revenues remained behind the plan in 2025
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 13 Jan 2026

The Ministry of Finance has started releasing financial statistics for 2025, reporting that the republican budget execution was generally in line with the initial plan. Revenue and expenditure targets remained largely unchanged, and the budget deficit came in slightly below the KZT 4.1 trln targe...

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