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The House approved the Public Security PEC, the CCJ should hold public hearings on reducing working hours and ending the 6x1 work schedule, and the Senate approved the Mercosur-EU trade agreement
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Mar 2026

The plenary of the Lower House concluded the vote on the Public Security Constitutional Amendment Proposal (PEC) submitted by the Executive Branch. The text now moves to the Senate. Yesterday morning, the Lower House Constitution and Justice Committee (CCJ) approved a request by Congressman Paulo...

Shockwaves from Tehran: Quantifying the Economic Impact on the South Caucasus
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 05 Mar 2026

In my Mon note I expressed bewilderment at the lack of proper reaction of Armenian authorities to the fiery situation unfolding at their southern border. In a video gone viral in the country, the PM Pashinyan was caught on camera munching on corn in a bus that was a on campaign tour in the countr...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 05 Mar 2026

The Finance Ministry plans to revise the cut-off oil price that determines operations with the National Wealth Fund. Under the current fiscal rule, if oil prices fall below $59 per barrel, the government sells CNY or gold from the NWF to offset lost energy export revenues. In December 2025 and Ja...

Days 4&5: Trump moots Hormuz escort but oil hits $84, US embassies and radars targeted, Khamenei’s son likely to succeed
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 04 Mar 2026 · 1 response

This update is going out as Wednesday comes to a close in the US and the GCC and Iran begin Thursday morning. Iran The intense US and Israeli bombing has continued. The US has struck over 2,000 targets and is using 200 planes in the region, along with long-range bombers. The body count in Iran ha...

The last peace-of-mind week ever?
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 04 Mar 2026

So far this century, leftist governments in Latin America have typically lasted between 10 and 18 years, with Chávez – Maduro - Rodriguez outlasting this average, reaching 26 years (Table 1). Hence, Gustavo Petro needs to demonstrate that he and his heir can emulate his peers and reach at least 8...

Alcolumbre upheld the CPMI’s decision to access Lulinha’s confidential information, the House may vote on the report on the Public Security PEC, and the Senate may vote on the Mercosur–European Union trade agreement
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Mar 2026

The government suffered a defeat in the Senate. Senate President Davi Alcolumbre (União-AP) upheld the decision of the Joint Parliamentary Committee of Inquiry (CPMI) on the INSS to access the confidential information of Fábio Luís Lula da Silva, known as "Lulinha", President Lula’s son. Today, t...

The ups and downs of the transition
VENEZUELA · Report · 04 Mar 2026

Two months after the January 3 break, Venezuela’s transition has unfolded without the collapse many expected, and Rodríguez’s government has delivered on its two most visible commitments: Hydrocarbons Law reform and the Amnesty Law. While both are tangible signals of political action, each does c...

An economy on farm support
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Mar 2026

There were no surprises this time: GDP growth in the fourth quarter of last year reached 0.1%, slightly above the previous quarter (0.0%, revised from 0.1%), bringing growth in 2025 to 2.3%, compared to 3.4% in 2024. Domestic demand, the main driver of aggregate demand expansion in 2024, showe...

Lula said he might visit the U.S. this month, Lula should meet today with Alckmin and Haddad to discuss the São Paulo gubernatorial race, and the House approved the bill that allows pharmacies in supermarkets
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Mar 2026

Last week, President Lula announced that he might visit the United States during the week of March 15. Following the attacks on Iran, however, there are doubts about that schedule. The conflict between the United States and Iran has become part of the presidential race. Flavio Bolsonaro said the ...

February inflation: not much new or unexpected
TURKEY · Report · 03 Mar 2026

Consumer prices rose by 3% in February, broadly in line with expectations, with the 12-month rate rising to 31.5% from 30.7% in January. Producer prices rose by 2.4% in the month, which meant a modest increase also in the 12-month PPI inflation rate -- to 27.6%, from 27.2% in January. The main...

Economics: US Supreme Court ruling on tariffs—implications for Mexico
MEXICO · Report · 03 Mar 2026

The recent imposition of 15% across-the-board tariffs by President Trump in response to the U.S. Supreme Court's ruling invalidating prior specific tariffs does not affect Mexico as products entering under the USMCA remain exempt, as they previously were from reciprocal tariffs. Consequently, Mex...

Stagflation deepens: Can Argentina find a way out in 2026?
ARGENTINA · Report · 03 Mar 2026

According to the September–October 2025 Survey of Political Satisfaction and Public Opinion conducted by Universidad San Andrés, low wages and limited employment opportunities have become the primary concerns among respondents. Inflation now ranks lower, alongside insecurity, poverty and perceive...

Reporting from under the bus: first estimate of the extra energy cost
HUNGARY · In Brief · 03 Mar 2026

A few weeks ago, PM Orbán was sincerely hoping that President Trump would spend the first day of March by hopping on AF1 and flying to Budapest, to promote the case of his true friend and loyal ally in the latter's fight for reelection. However, he was thrown under the bus instead, receiving shar...

The second Israel-Iran war: the risks of a prolonged confrontation
ISRAEL · In Brief · 03 Mar 2026

After three days of war, several key facts are beginning to emerge: The Israeli-U.S. opening move appears to be a significant operational success. The combination of prior intelligence and highly precise strikes by both countries resulted in the targeted killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and...

Iran War Day 3: Oil and gas facilities struck, Iran downplays strikes on GCC, US clarifies imminent threat claim
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 02 Mar 2026

This update is going out as Monday comes to a close in the US and the GCC and Iran begin Tuesday morning. US-Iran developments The US says it has struck 1,250 targets so far, including all 11 ships. The Institute for the Study of War's daily updates provide a good analysis of the targeting within...

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