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Economics: The non-tariff barriers US cites put Mexico at a disadvantage in the upcoming USMCA review and potential renegotiation
MEXICO · Report · 18 Nov 2025

The positions on non-tariff barriers being cited by the current US administration loom large over the USMCA review and possible renegotiation, a process the three signature countries are scheduled to jointly engage in beginning next July. The barriers Washington points to were outlined in a US Tr...

Weekly macroeconomic update, November 17, 2025
ISRAEL · Report · 17 Nov 2025

This week’s market focus centered on two key releases: the October CPI and the Q3 GDP figures. Together, they offer an updated view of the economy’s post-war momentum and inflation environment ahead of the Bank of Israel’s November 24 rate decision. The GDP surged 12.4% (annualized) in Q3 as acti...

The positioning of "independent" voters and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Nov 2025

The holiday (Black Consciousness Day) on Thursday reduces congressional activity this week. In the Lower House, the highlight is the attempt to vote on the Anti-Gang Bill. In the Senate, the Economic Affairs Committee (CAE) may discuss the bill on the taxation of betting platforms and fintechs. T...

A tough defeat
ECUADOR · Report · 17 Nov 2025

On November 16, nearly 14 million Ecuadorians voted on four questions in a referendum: on the presence of foreign military bases in Ecuador, reducing the number of legislators, eliminating public financing of political parties, and changing the 2008 Constitution through a constitutional assembly....

CIS Essential Politics: November 1-17, 2025
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 17 Nov 2025

- A massive corruption scandal in Ukraine implicates a former defense minister and various Zelensky allies. - Russia encircles key cities of Pokrovsk and Mirnograd after a year of fighting. - Kazakhstan signs an alliance with Russia and a minerals deal with US. - A fierce R...

Election update: Kast in pole position for runoff
CHILE · In Brief · 17 Nov 2025

As expected, Jeannette Jara and José Antonio Kast will face each other in Chile’s runoff presidential election on 14 December. Less expected was Jara’s poor showing, winning just 26.8% of the vote, even less than the 30% support the Boric government tends to maintain. José Antonio Kast (24%), Joh...

The House is expected to attempt a vote on the Anti-Gang Bill, the Senate Economic Affairs Committee will discuss the bill that taxes fintechs and betting, and the BNDES may announce an infrastructure financing operation
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Nov 2025

The Lower House is expected to attempt a vote on Tuesday, November 18, on the Anti-Gang Bill (Bill No. 5,582/25), drafted by the Executive Branch. The rapporteur is Congressman Guilherme Derrite (PP-SP). Also on Tuesday, the Senate’s Economic Affairs Committee (CAE) will discuss the bill introduc...

Industrial production growth numbers remain high in 10M25, deceleration likely in 2026
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 17 Nov 2025

According to a recent publication by the Bureau of National Statistics, industrial production grew by 7.3% y-o-y in 10M25 (slightly down from 7.4% in 9M25). In October alone industrial production was up by 7.1% pointing to a gradual, albeit natural, deceleration. As usual, the official m-o-m do n...

Losing steam
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 17 Nov 2025

Economic activity lost strength starting in the second quarter and now shows signs cooling aggregate demand. Retail sales indicate that the payment of court-ordered debts (precatórios) was not enough to sustain a favorable outcome for consumption. Even segments more sensitive to income have shown...

Politics: Sheinbaum's administration under fire on multiple fronts
MEXICO · Report · 17 Nov 2025

With Claudia Sheinbaum’s presidential administration now into its second year, prospects are not as bright as they once appeared. Sheinbaum had everything going for her, including AMLO’s legacy and high approval ratings and a weak opposition. But her incapacity to break with AMLO’s erroneous poli...

Analysts expect a base rate cut only in H2 2026
HUNGARY · In Brief · 17 Nov 2025

The Monetary Council is set to hold its regular monthly rate-setting meeting tomorrow. Analysts participating in Portfolio.hu's monthly poll uniformly expect the 6.5% base rate to hold on this occasion. Indeed, it would be just very surprising if the Council decided to go for a rate cut, after it...

GDP growth markedly slowed in 3Q25
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 17 Nov 2025

In the aftermath of 9M25 economic statistics published somewhat two weeks ago that pointed to a persistent deceleration of economic growth, Rosstat recently released its 3Q25 y-o-y GDP growth flash estimate at 0.6%. No more details, such as Q-o-Q GDP growth (seasonally adjusted or unadjusted) are...

Too much political news to digest
TURKEY · Report · 16 Nov 2025

The politics author is under a news bombardment, all interrelated, which will take a week or two to fully digest and to reflect to his current predictions. The week started with the 4K pages long indictment of Ekrem Imamoglu, which, most notably, included a request by the prosecutors to the Attor...

GULF WEEKLY: Construction powers Dubai GDP surge, Qatar’s deficit widens slightly, Saudi tourism gigaprojects to open soon, Sudani leads fragmented Iraqi election
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 14 Nov 2025 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil is set for a weekly gain as a strike on a Russian export terminal briefly offset supply glut worries. * The IEA reinstated a “business as usual” scenario that would see oil demand growing until 2050. * Saudi Arabia re...

Haddad gave an interview yesterday about the bus fares project, next week should be busy despite the holiday, and Lula is expected to sign the income tax exemption bill on Wednesday
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Nov 2025

Finance Minister Fernando Haddad gave an interview to O Estado de S. Paulo. As previously reported, he confirmed that the project to eliminate bus fares will not move forward next year and will only be implemented if it proves fiscally viable. Next week is expected to be busy in Brasília, despite...

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