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The second Israel-Iran war: the risks of a prolonged confrontation
ISRAEL · In Brief · 03 Mar 2026

After three days of war, several key facts are beginning to emerge: The Israeli-U.S. opening move appears to be a significant operational success. The combination of prior intelligence and highly precise strikes by both countries resulted in the targeted killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and...

Iran War Day 3: Oil and gas facilities struck, Iran downplays strikes on GCC, US clarifies imminent threat claim
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 02 Mar 2026

This update is going out as Monday comes to a close in the US and the GCC and Iran begin Tuesday morning. US-Iran developments The US says it has struck 1,250 targets so far, including all 11 ships. The Institute for the Study of War's daily updates provide a good analysis of the targeting within...

Politics: The death of “El Mencho” reshapes the Mexican security landscape
MEXICO · Report · 02 Mar 2026

On Sunday, February 22, 2026, the Mexican Army carried out a well-planned operation in Tapalpa, Jalisco (130 km from Guadalajara), with support from US intelligence (JITF-CC), to capture Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, alias "El Mencho," leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG). The kingpin...

The PT goes on the offensive and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Mar 2026

The Lower House may vote on the Public Security constitutional amendment proposal (PEC). In the economy, attention turns to the release of Brazil’s 2025 GDP. On March 6, the party-switching window will open, allowing members of Congress to change parties without risking the loss of their mandates...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 02 Mar 2026

February, an even shorter month due to the Carnival holidays, was marked by heightened tension among the three branches of government, with no indication that the worst is over − meaning more uncertainty and political risks lie ahead. The main source of turbulence stems not only from the progress...

Essential CIS Politics: February 18-March 2, 2026
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 02 Mar 2026

- US-Israeli strikes on Iran pose a major geopolitical challenge to Russia, approximately one year after losing Assad’s Syria. - Belarus calls up reserves in “concealed mobilization”. - UK holds a major summit with Central Asian countries and signs a critical minerals agreement with Kaza...

Activity ends 2025 on a weak note
TURKEY · Report · 02 Mar 2026

The Turkish economy grew by 3.4%, y/y, in the final quarter of 2025, slightly below expectations of 3.6%, and down from 3.8% in Q3. In calendar- and seasonally-adjusted terms, economic activity seems to have lost quite a bit of momentum sequentially, rising at a modest 0.4%, q/q, which, incidenta...

The right’s demonstration drew a smaller crowd than those before Bolsonaro was imprisoned, the House may vote on the Public Security PEC on Wednesday, and the party-switching window opens on Friday
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Mar 2026

The demonstration organized by right-wing groups on Sunday (March 1) in several state capitals, dubbed “Wake Up, Brazil,” drew lower turnout compared with rallies held when former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) was not serving his sentence. The largest crowd was recorded on Avenida Paulista in São...

Shadow over Ararat: Strikes on Iran reveal Armenia's strategic vulnerability
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 02 Mar 2026

The aftershocks of the latest round of missile strikes in Iran have been quick to reverberate across the South Caucasus, raising fresh questions about the security, trade routes, and economic resiliency of Armenia. Instability on Armenia’s southern border could rapidly evolve into a structural ch...

Day 2 of Trump’s war on Iran: Leadership transition, Gulf airports targeted, oil up $5
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 01 Mar 2026 · 2 responses

Firstly, my thoughts are with clients in the region who are sheltering in place, at a time when many are observing Ramadan. I’m sure everyone outside the region is also closely following the news, so I will just summarize some of the key developments with brief analysis. The assault on Iran Israe...

How come the fiscal balance improved in 2025?
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 01 Mar 2026

The Finance Ministry published fiscal data for Q4-2025 and for 2025 as a whole. The results could not be more discouraging. Even though the deficit went down from 6.7% of GDP in 2024 to 6.4% in 2025, a cursory look at the details behind this result (shown in Table 1) left us with nothing positive...

Remember Ms. Pandora?
TURKEY · Report · 01 Mar 2026

The best advertised war of the Century started early Saturday morning with the assassination of key Iranian leaders, rapidly spreading to Gulf Countries and the Gulf of Hurmuz afterwards. As the politics analyst sends his essay to the editor, at 4 pm Istanbul time, Sunday, many important question...

An update on the election campaign and opinion polls
HUNGARY · In Brief · 28 Feb 2026

On February 24, Median, one of the more reliable pollsters domestically, published a new survey, in which Tisza's lead against Fidesz rose to 42:31 from January's 40:33, both as percent of the total voting population: Note: 'Egyéb párt' = other parties, 'Pártnélküli' = undecided; Source: 444.hu T...

US and Israel attack Iran with very broad objectives. Gulf states criticize counterstrikes. Oman condemns war. OPEC+ may increase output hike
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 28 Feb 2026 · 1 response

Trump laid out very broad US objectives in a video at about 3am ET on Saturday, shortly after strikes had begun, which suggest a prolonged assault (CBS). “Our objective is to defend the American people by eliminating imminent threats from the Iranian regime”. He listed grievances back to the 1980...

Handing out the pre-election pork
COLOMBIA · Report · 27 Feb 2026 · 1 response

Colombia began experimenting with wealth taxes at the beginning of this century. Wealth taxes have been criticized because they represent double income taxation: once when it’s produced, and again as assets. This may discourage savings and capital accumulation. But successive governments and mini...

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