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Why is the Uzbek Soum losing some altitude in early 2026?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 10 Feb 2026

While I am on topic (Uzbekistan is gingerly breaking away from the twin-deficit curse), I offer my pithy thoughts on the early-year softening of the UZS since I have been prompted by client questions.  The 2025 unusual strengthening of regional currencies (vs the US$) figured prominently in my wr...

Israeli fiscal deficit edges up to 4.9% of GDP in January
ISRAEL · In Brief · 10 Feb 2026

The Ministry of Finance reported a fiscal surplus of NIS 16.9 billion ($5.3 billion) in January 2026, with the trailing 12-month deficit increasing to 4.9% of GDP, from 4.7% in December. The budget deficit peaked at 8.5% of GDP in September 2024. Direct taxes surprised on the upside, while indire...

Macroeconomic and geopolitical developments – Weekly report, February 9, 2026
ISRAEL · Report · 09 Feb 2026

Israel’s political arena remains highly turbulent, centered on three interlinked fronts: the 2026 state budget, which must be approved by March 31; the military conscription legislation, which remains stalled at the level of legal advisers; and, more recently, Prime Minister Netanyahu’s publicati...

Lula enters 2026 in campaign mode and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Feb 2026

The week leading up to Carnaval will see reduced activity in Congress. Four new presidential approval and voting polls will be released. In the House, highlights include a vote on urgency status for the Redata bill and consideration of the complementary bill on bank resolution. The government is ...

Deficits Through the Looking Glass
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 09 Feb 2026

In 2025, the public sector nominal deficit reached BRL 1.06 trillion (8.3% of GDP), the second highest ever. Although this figure raises concern, it is not the best indicator of debt dynamics. The evolution of the debt-to-GDP ratio depends on the operational result, defined as the primary deficit...

Politics: Recent changes in key political positions imply a new Sheinbaum-AMLO power balance
MEXICO · Report · 09 Feb 2026

Recent changes—first at the Financial Intelligence Unit in early August of last year, then at the Attorney General's Office in late November, and most recently last week on Sunday, February 1st, in the coordination of the Morena's Senate Parliamentary Group—empower President Claudia Sheinbaum vis...

The House is expected to vote on the urgent status of the bill on Data Centers, four presidential voting polls are expected for release this week, and the STF should analyze a case against the TCU’s new secretariat
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Feb 2026

The Lower House is expected to vote this week on an urgent status request for the bill establishing a Tax Regime for Data Centers (Redata), which would create tax incentives for the construction of data centers in Brazil. Four new presidential voting polls are scheduled for release this week. The...

Interpreting the US trade agreement
INDIA · Report · 09 Feb 2026

The interim trade framework between the United States and India, concluded in early February 2026, is an important moment in New Delhi's strategic calculus. While the agreement de-escalates a threatened trade war—reducing U.S. tariffs on Indian goods from a potential 50 percent aggregate to a uni...

A little bit of this, a little bit of that
TURKEY · Report · 08 Feb 2026 · 1 response

Turkey’s (Kurdish) Peace Process got a boost from a new peace deal in Syria, but at home the going is very slow and torturous, because Peace Committee members can’t find a way to finesse Ocalan’s “right to hope” in their report to the Grand Assembly. President Erdogan is changing tack in his C...

Tisza published its policy platform document yesterday
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Feb 2026

Roughly two months ahead of the election, Tisza published its policy platform on February 7, a 240-page document under the title: 'Foundations of a functioning and humane Hungary'. According to speakers from Tisza, this was prepared by more than 1000 experts over the past one and a half years. Us...

IMF program struggles to get off the ground
UKRAINE · In Brief · 07 Feb 2026

Bloomberg wrote about the issues surrounding the new IMF program. The picture presented by the journalist only needs a few additional details. The Ministry of Finance developed a proposal that was very poorly analyzed. The key issue is that tax compliance costs in Ukraine under the general tax sy...

GULF WEEKLY: Oman mediates US-Iran talks, Qatar signs major LNG deals, Kuwait reshuffles cabinet
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 06 Feb 2026 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oman mediated US-Iran talks, and the market-implied risk of US strikes this month halved to 30%. * The Saudi flash GDP reading showed non-oil growth slowing to a two-year low of 3.2% in Q4. * The UAE’s PMI rose to 55.9, t...

In an interview Lula said that both Haddad and Alckmin have a role to play in São Paulo, Justice Dino ordered the suspension of “extra perks” in the public sector, and next week should be quiet as it precedes Carnaval
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Feb 2026

Yesterday, in an interview with UOL, President Lula said that both Finance Minister Fernando Haddad and Vice President Geraldo Alckmin have a role to play in São Paulo. Both have so far resisted running for elective office in October, but pressure is mounting. Yesterday, Supreme Court Justice Flá...

Swallowing frogs, kissing the ring, and doing the responsible thing
COLOMBIA · Report · 06 Feb 2026 · 1 response

Why did Donald Trump want to meet with Gustavo Petro in Washington? Probably because it was cheaper to scold Petro face to face; to ask for real commitment and actions that comply with the U.S. agenda; and to bring him to the White House to kiss the ring, instead of intimidating him with the U.S....

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Uzbekistan is gingerly breaking away from the twin-deficit curse
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 06 Feb 2026

Probably the most cited economic risks for Uzbekistan over the years have been its persistent CA and fiscal gaps. Indeed, the twin deficits ballooned from a virtual balance in 2017 to a hefty 12.6% of GDP in 2023. The surge in fiscal spending in the post-COVID years and political cycle-related lo...

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