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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Economic blockade instead of invasion?
VENEZUELA · Report · 12 Dec 2025

The seizure of the sanctioned tanker Skipper heralds the possibility of a military-backed economic blockade aimed at achieving regime change in Venezuela through economic suffocation rather than military intervention. According to various sources, the Skipper was carrying 1.1 million barrels o...

Webinar replay - Latin America in 2026: Inflation, policy and politics in a shifting global landscape
COLOMBIA · Report · 12 Dec 2025

Going into 2026, what is the economic outlook for the key Latin American economies of Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico? How will the persistence of above-target inflation in the region be addressed? What is ahead for monetary policy and central banks? Is LatAm positioned well for a reve...

The Trillion Peso March: mass action, political maneuvering, and the imperative of evidence-based unity
PHILIPPINES · Report · 12 Dec 2025

The Philippines is experiencing a surge of public mobilization against corruption, especially over alleged irregularities in flood control projects. While many rallies have focused on institutional reform and evidence-based accountability, a recent event pushing for President Marcos’s resignation...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 11 Dec 2025

Nov 27 National pipeline company: KazTransOil net profit (IFRS) increased by 24% y-o-y in 9M25. Nov 28 NBK: The Bank left the base rate unchanged at 18%. NBK: The Bank has no intentions to reduce the base rate until the end of 1H26. NBK: The Bank has revised the forecast of economic growth in Kaz...

Turning point or tightening?
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 11 Dec 2025

Venezuela is entering a new cycle of high macroeconomic uncertainty, caught between increasingly tight sanctions and narrowing room for policy maneuver. This report projects economic performance for 2025–2027 under the assumption that the current sanctions regime will remain in place, while recog...

President Viktor Orbán?
HUNGARY · In Brief · 11 Dec 2025

It looks like the forint market did not like today's Bloomberg article about PM Orbán's possible attempt to strengthen the currently pretty much powerless position of the President of the Republic, planning to take over that position before the election. We think that the presentation of the news...

Justice Gilmar partially reversed his decision on the impeachment law, the Senate approved the proposal reducing the work week, and the Senate also approved the Anti-Gang bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Dec 2025

Supreme Federal Court (STF) Justice Gilmar Mendes decided yesterday to partially reverse his own injunction that had suspended portions of the law governing the impeachment of public officials. Yesterday, the Senate’s Constitution and Justice Committee (CCJ) approved a proposed constitutional ame...

Copy & paste
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 11 Dec 2025

BCB’s Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) kept, as widely expected, the target for the benchmark Selic rate at 15% per year, but the policy rate was not the only element that remained unchanged after the meeting. The statement released immediately after the decision—which anticipates some of the...

Aggressive cut, fuzzy statement
TURKEY · Report · 11 Dec 2025 · 1 response

The CBRT/MPC cut the policy rate by 150 bps to 38% at the last meeting of the year (see chart). While the move is sort of “in line with expectations”, it is probably fair to say that it certainly is “deeper than hoped for” by a good majority of analysts, including this author. Put differently, th...

The link between re-monetization and reserve accumulation—the two will only happen if the exchange rate is allowed to float
ARGENTINA · Report · 11 Dec 2025

The government now agrees that accumulating FX reserves is important but, for this, the economy must re-monetize—and not just in US dollars, as it thought before, but primarily in pesos. While this is obviously true, members of the economic team also believe (or so it seems) that re-monetization ...

Macroeconomic and geopolitical developments – Weekly report, December 10, 2025
ISRAEL · Report · 10 Dec 2025

This week’s indicators suggest that the economy is transitioning from a post-war rebound to a more stable and sustainable growth path. Retail activity normalized, while business expectations improved, signaling that firms anticipate stronger orders and output in early 2026. Fiscal data were once ...

The Lower House approved a bill that reduces penalties for attempted coup d’états, the House also approved the bill on persistent tax debtors, and the House may vote on a bill cutting tax benefits
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Dec 2025

The Lower House approved a bill that reduces penalties for individuals convicted of attempting a coup d’état. The vote came after a meeting between Senator and presidential pre-candidate Flavio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) and the leaders of the PP, Ciro Nogueira (PP-PI), and União Brasil, Antonio Rueda. Th...

Economics: Credit to the private sector slows despite Banxico's extended easing cycle
MEXICO · Report · 09 Dec 2025

According to figures published recently by Banxico, financing to the non-financial private sector slowed at an annual rate in the domestic currency component in the third quarter. Within domestic financing, the bank loan portfolio, which represents about 60% of the total, is showing slower growth...

Centrist parties approach Flavio Bolsonaro’s candidacy with caution, the House president will meet with the Tax Reform rapporteur, and two major tax benefits bills are being considered in the Lower House
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Dec 2025

When Flavio Bolsonaro announced his candidacy on Friday, the market reacted sharply and negatively. But there is resistance within the political arena, as well. Yesterday, Flavio scheduled a meeting with leaders from Centrist parties, but some chose not to attend. Today, the President of the Lowe...

Growth accelerates, but politics and public finances remain gloomy
POLAND · Report · 09 Dec 2025

Recent polling from October–November 2025 shows the Civic Coalition (KO) leading PiS by several percentage points—a shift driven partly by PiS vote erosion rather than only KO gains; fragmentation on the right (Konfederacja, KPP) and personal clashes among right-wing leaders have weakened PiS’s p...

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