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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

A powerful ending to 2025
INDONESIA · Report · 09 Dec 2025

As the year 2025 comes to a close, the Indonesian economy continues robust. For the last three quarters the Indonesian economy has grown by slightly over 5%, and the last quarter of this year is also expected to post decent growth. For example, the S&P Global Indonesian Manufacturing PMI rose to ...

Good news on consumer inflation in November
HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 Dec 2025

CPI-inflation for November has been reported at 0.1% mom, 3.8% yoy this morning. The year-on-year rate dropped quite substantially, from the previous 4.3%, and it fell into the MNB target range for the first time this year. Non-fuel inflation dropped to 4.6% yoy, i.e. by two decimal points from t...

HEADS UP: Turkish military columns in Northern Syria
TURKEY · In Brief · 09 Dec 2025

At least three separate sources report that Turkish military convoys are entering Northern Syria from multiple directions. The incursion could be just a show of force by Ankara to force reticent Syrian Kurds to reach a deal with Damascus to integrate their military wing with the national army, or...

Public security as a political asset and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Dec 2025

This is the penultimate week of activity in the National Congress. In the Lower House, lawmakers may vote on the bill that regulates the Tax Reform and another that deals with tax benefits. In the Senate, the bill taxing betting companies and fintechs may complete its legislative process. In the ...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 08 Dec 2025

LULA 4: A SAMPLE OF THE COMING TIDAL WAVE What was expected to be a calm year-end came to an abrupt halt on Friday, December 5, with a clear sample of the uncertainty and risk that will accompany us into 2026. Equities were 4.31% down, reversing the previous mood of euphoria — or “overbought” ...

Politics: A quick review of the laws passed during the legislature now concluding
MEXICO · Report · 08 Dec 2025

On the economic front, considering the country’s lackluster economic performance, the main pieces of legislation that were approved in the session now concluding—the Federal Revenue Law and Federal Expenditure Law—offered no surprises. The bills ratified excessive spending to maintain social subs...

Senator Flavio Bolsonaro announced he may run for president next year, the House President will meet with the Tax Reform rapporteur, and the STF will review the impeachment law for justices
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Dec 2025

On Friday, December 5, Senator Flavio Bolsonaro’s (PL-RJ) announcement of his pre-candidacy surprised both the market and the political establishment. However, on Sunday, December 7, in an interview, he admitted he may withdraw from the race — but said such a move comes with a price: amnesty for ...

Fitch Ratings' outlook on their BBB sovereign rating went from Stable to Negative yesterday
HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Dec 2025

Fitch Ratings held the H2 review of their Hungary sovereign rating yesterday, also ending the late-in-the-year review season for the Top-3 rating agencies as regards 2025. The agency affirmed the government's BBB rating, but changed the outlook to Negative from Stable on this occasion:Fitch attri...

GULF WEEKLY: Saudi budget, PMIs rise, UAE Q3 surplus, Bahrain’s CDS spreads spike
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 05 Dec 2025 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC+’s capacity audit will mainly be done by US firm D&M, bar sanctioned countries. * The budgeted Saudi spending cuts are mainly in capex and use of goods and services. * The finance minister reaffirmed an openness to ...

No property bailouts in China
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 05 Dec 2025

Ever since property prices began to collapse in 2021 following Beijing’s draconian Three Red Lines policy limiting bank loans in 2020, the markets have been expecting a central government bailout of the property market. Instead, we have seen drips and drabs of help, mostly for individual projects...

Congress approved the Budget Guidelines Bill, the House will discuss creating a committee on Tax Reform, and discussions continue on the impeachment procedure for Supreme Court justices
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Dec 2025

Congress completed yesterday the approval of the 2026 Budget Guidelines Bill (PLDO), which now includes a schedule for the payment of parliamentary amendments — a key demand from lawmakers ahead of next year’s elections. In the Lower House, President Hugo Motta (Republicanos–PB) is expected to me...

Nov CCA highlights: Armenia/Georgia keep policy rates unchanged, while Kyrgyzstan hikes and Tajikistan eases, Azerbaijan looks to ramp up oil/gas production from 2029, Georgia/Uzbekistan see sovereign outlook improvements
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 05 Dec 2025

For a while, I have skipped the more mundane monthly publication of the key economic/political/geopolitical events in the CCA as more pressing writing issues have kept my pen occupied. The Nov summary rectifies this lapse, and, for the first time, adds Kyrgyzstan to the rest of the usually covere...

Economic performance looked better in October, with more challenges ahead amid appreciating ruble
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 05 Dec 2025

Recently published statistics indicated that October saw a kind of a moderate upturn as the short-term indicator grew by 2.9% y-o-y that month. The 10M25 tally grew by 1.1% (up from 0.9% in 9M25). This kind of moderate improvement was widespread across key segments of the economy. We previously m...

South Africa’s current account deficit declines in Q3-2025
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 04 Dec 2025

Current account data released by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) today indicates that, in the third quarter of 2025, the deficit on South Africa’s current account narrowed from R72.2 billion in the second quarter to R57 billion. Relative to GDP, the current account deficit narrowed from 1% ...

Easy does it
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 04 Dec 2025

Brazil’s GDP grew 0.1% in the third quarter, slightly below median forecasts (0.2%). While household consumption also increased 0.1%, both government consumption (1.3%) and investment (0.9%) performed better, resulting in a 0.4% increase in domestic demand—which accelerated compared to the second...

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