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TOPIC OF THE WEEK: From Tehran to the pump: oil shock inflation in the Caucasus and Central Asia
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 20 Mar 2026

The adverse oil shock emanating from the Iran crisis risks derailing the disinflation story that I expected across the CCA this year. Inflation across the region appeared to have peaked in 2025, with most economies projected to see easing price pressures in 2026, including on slower growth, a fav...

Administrative fuel price caps look unsustainable
HUNGARY · In Brief · 20 Mar 2026

The following is supposed to be an important contribution ahead of next Tuesday's (March 24) Monetary Council meeting, which is scheduled to discuss the Q1 inflation report as well. Effective March 10, the government introduced 'protected retail prices' for the most basic types of fuels, which ar...

The Hormuz observatory
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 19 Mar 2026

In light of what has occurred in recent weeks, and even of the market pricing of interest rates, Copom reducing the target for the Selic rate by 0.25 p.p. to 14.75% per year was no surprise. That said, I did not anticipate the increase in the Central Bank’s inflation projection for the relevan...

The threat of a truckers’ strike is dominating the government’s agenda, today is the deadline for Lula to sign into law the bill that reduces tax rates for the chemical industry, and Vorcaro is currently negotiating a plea agreement
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Mar 2026

The threat of a truckers’ strike is dominating the government’s agenda in Brasília. As announced on March 18 by Transportation Minister Renan Filho, the government plans to expand electronic monitoring of freight nationwide, in addition to strengthening on-the-ground enforcement. Today is the dea...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 19 Mar 2026

Minfin’s decision to pause fiscal rule operations on the FX market has clearly impacted the ruble, with USD/RUB climbing from 77.2 in early March to around 84-85 recently. This might seem odd given the surge in oil prices, with Urals now above $90/bbl and Brent topping $110/bbl after more than fi...

Iran War Day 19: Israel strikes Iran’s gas and Iran retaliates against Qatar and UAE energy sites
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 19 Mar 2026

Highlights Israel struck South Pars, the world’s largest gas field (shared with Qatar). Iran retaliated by firing missiles at Qatar’s Ras Laffan, damaging the Pearl GTL plant. Gas and oil fields in the UAE were also damaged. Brent crude surged to $112. Israel killed Iran’s Intelligence Minister. ...

The transition needs an anchor
VENEZUELA · Report · 18 Mar 2026

In February 2026, monthly inflation fell to 13 percent from January’s 32 percent. Driving this slowdown were fiscal tightening and more generous foreign exchange interventions. The doubling of the amount of dollars auctioned and the seasonal rise in tax collection made it possible to temporarily ...

Iran War Days 17–18: Israel kills Larijani; allies reject Hormuz mission; top US official resigns
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 17 Mar 2026

Highlights Update for March 16-17. Israel killed Ali Larijani, one of Iran’s de facto leaders. EU foreign ministers and others rejected Trump’s demand for a naval coalition to secure Hormuz. The most senior US counterterrorism official resigned, calling the war unjustified. Iran struck a gas fiel...

Peru: Prime minister resigned
PERU · In Brief · 17 Mar 2026 · 1 response

This afternoon, Prime Minister Denisse Mirelles, adverting a no-confidence vote in Congress tomorrow, decided to resign. We had expected this event and covered in our March forecast essay publish today.  A few minutes ago, President José María Balcázar took oath to the new Cabinet led by Luis Arr...

Jumping into the dark
HUNGARY · Report · 17 Mar 2026

Less than four weeks before the election, there is no sign of any significant change in the previously known odds. On one hand, Tisza maintains a significant and even moderately increasing lead in the polls. But on the other, these surveys do not include the views of those who vote from abroad, a...

Parliamentary crisis pushes Ukraine's IMF programme to the brink
UKRAINE · In Brief · 17 Mar 2026

Parliamentary crisis is in full swing. In our last report, "Though Russia's strategies keep failing, the war is far from over," we described how the IMF is struggling with its new program and that the outlook is not particularly encouraging. Today Bloomberg reported that the IMF is now openly rai...

The House may vote on the urgent status of a bill that increases the revenue cap for MEIs, the government may submit a bill on the 6x1 work schedule, and Justice Dino ended forced retirement as the highest penalty for judges
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Mar 2026

The Lower House is expected to vote today on an urgent status request for a bill (PL 108/21) that raises the revenue cap for Individual Microentrepreneurs (MEIs). The proposal increases the annual gross revenue ceiling for MEIs to R$130,000. Regarding the proposed end of the six-days-on, one-day-...

Right-wing candidates take the lead; energy price shock justifies growth forecast cut and inflation forecast hike; we project BCRP policy pause for 2026
PERU · Report · 17 Mar 2026 · 1 response

In this forecast, we review our political scenarios; the impact of supply-price shocks on the economy and inflation; and the likely response by the Board of the Banco Central de Reserva del Perú (the BCRP, Peru’s central bank). Since the end of February, local politics and geopolitics have mo...

Strong Q4 balance of payments supports the shekel
ISRAEL · In Brief · 17 Mar 2026

Israel’s external accounts strengthened in Q4 2025. The current account surplus rose sharply to $3.4 billion, following two relatively weak quarters (around $0.6 billion each). The key driver from an FX perspective, the goods and services balance, improved significantly, with the surplus widening...

Still no space for a third-way candidate and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Mar 2026

Finance Minister Fernando Haddad is expected to leave the ministry to run for governor of São Paulo in October. The Central Bank will decide the benchmark interest rate. A session in Congress is scheduled to promulgate the Mercosur–European Union agreement. The Supreme Federal Court (STF) will be...

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