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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Attention, friends of convergence trade: Tisza aims at euro introduction in medium term
HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Jan 2026

It had been claimed by Tisza for a while, more or less superficially, that they would go for the introduction of the euro in Hungary, should they win at the election later this year. However, Tisza held a news conference yesterday, at which Péter Magyar, founder and head of the party, and András ...

Bank of Israel cuts rates for a second time, signals a dovish stance; 2026 growth forecast revised higher
ISRAEL · In Brief · 05 Jan 2026

Contrary to market expectations, the Bank of Israel surprised with a second consecutive rate cut. As we noted yesterday, the prevailing macroeconomic conditions supported further easing, leaving little justification for keeping rates at their current level. The policy statement conveyed a more do...

Oil and stability first. Democratic transition later
VENEZUELA · Report · 05 Jan 2026

Trump transformed what appeared to be a "liberation" operation into an operation to replace authoritarian leadership and establish an economy under tutelage. His goal is to ensure U.S. access to oil and maintain stability in Venezuela. Operation "Absolute Resolve" concluded with Maduro and his...

Benign headline, same underlying challenges
TURKEY · Report · 05 Jan 2026

December CPI inflation came in at 0.9%, m/m, broadly in line with expectations yet marginally lower than ours, with the 12-month rate ending the year at 30.9%, down from 31.1% in November. This is just under the lower end of the forecast range of the November Inflation Report (of 31–33%), yet mar...

Interest rate review: Bank of Israel seen holding rates tomorrow, despite our view that there is room for further easing
ISRAEL · In Brief · 04 Jan 2026

The Bank of Israel is scheduled to announce its monetary-policy decision for February tomorrow. The near-market consensus is that the policy rate will remain unchanged, reflecting the Bank of Israel’s concerns over a still-tight labor market (with unemployment at around 3%), the risk of pent-up d...

An econ-only start to the New Year
TURKEY · Report · 04 Jan 2026 · 1 response

As our politics author is dealing with a nasty flu, this is an econ-only weekly. He will provide his update in the next few days. Growth indicators that are now available for the full fourth quarter of last year – namely, manufacturing sector PMI and confidence indices – show tangible improvem...

New year started with delivery of known fiscal campaign promises
HUNGARY · In Brief · 03 Jan 2026

A Happy New Year to all Readers! Just for the files, all the fiscal campaign measures promised by Fidesz with introduction at the start of 2026 have been indeed duly delivered, as shown by our standard table below: Sources: own compilation and estimates, based mainly on data from the Economy Mini...

GULF WEEKLY: Bahrain announces fiscal reforms, Oman projects small deficits until 2030, South Yemen clashes continue
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 02 Jan 2026

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Clashes in Yemen between UAE and Saudi-backed forces continued today. * Saudi Arabia’s current account deficit continued for a fifth quarter in Q3, narrowing to -2.6% of GDP. * Aramco reduced diesel subsidies, hiking the ...

Zelenskiy Appoints Head of Military Intelligence as Chief of Staff
UKRAINE · In Brief · 02 Jan 2026

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy announced today that he has proposed General Kyryl Budanov, head of military intelligence, to take the post of his Chief of Staff, replacing the controversial Andriy Yermak. Budanov is very popular among Ukrainians due to his effectiveness against Russian forces. He ...

Yemen conflict strains UAE-Saudi relations: events, outlook and implications
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 02 Jan 2026

* Saudi Arabia demanded that UAE-backed South Yemen separatists withdraw from the east. * It launched airstrikes on STC positions and on a military shipment from the UAE. * The UAE’s decision to withdraw its counterterrorism forces from Yemen may de-escalate bilateral tensions. * However, the ...

CIS Essential Politics: December 15-31
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 31 Dec 2025

- Trump speaks with Putin and Zelensky. - Russia claims Ukraine attempted a drone strike on Putin’s residence. - Japan holds first-ever heads-of-state summit with Central Asian leaders. - NABU launches anti-corruption raid on Ukrainian parliament.

Gasoline price to drop 3.3% on January 1st, supporting continued monetary easing
ISRAEL · In Brief · 30 Dec 2025

Starting January 1st, the price of gasoline in Israel will be reduced to NIS 6.85 per liter. The decline reflects a 10.76% drop in global oil prices and a 2.26% appreciation in the shekel-dollar exchange rate. The 3.66% decline in fuel prices points to a particularly low CPI reading in January, i...

A rare equilibrium
CHILE · Report · 30 Dec 2025

With the monetary policy rate now at 4.5%, a level we consider broadly neutral, indicators point to an economy operating close to equilibrium. The main risks remain external, and recent data are consistent with this view. Beyond monthly volatility, activity appears to be at a stable but sluggish ...

Notes from Beijing and Hong Kong
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 30 Dec 2025

I just returned from a two week trip to Hong Kong and Beijing, giving a speech to the American Chamber of Commerce in Beijing, and meeting with property developers and other businesses. Here are a few random thoughts from the trip, including on the overall economy, the property market and activit...

IMF on the Philippines: Cautious Optimism, Hard Constraints
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 30 Dec 2025

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) completed its Article IV mission to the Philippines from mid-September to 1 October 2025, with the Executive Board concluding the consultation on 24 November 2025. The staff report, released on 15 December with the consent of Philippine authorities, reflects ...

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