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Panama, the U.S., and China: ports as a geopolitical linchpin
PANAMA · Report · 25 Feb 2026

Panama’s takeover of the Balboa and Cristóbal seaports operations marks a geopolitical inflection point in which the ports—more than the Canal itself—have become a strategic lever in U.S.-China competition. Following last week’s Supreme Court ruling that declared unconstitutional the legal framew...

Will Chancellor Merz’s visit change EU policies towards China?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 25 Feb 2026

Special points to highlight in this report: - Economic data releases in China early in the year are usually not comparable because the very important Spring Festival comes at different times in January and February every year. In addition, in a bid to boost consumption, Beijing decreed that t...

The House approved the Redata Bill and the Anti-Gang Bill, the STF will review the injunction issued by Justice Dino on public-sector salaries, and government leaders met yesterday to discuss the salary “perks” issue
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Feb 2026

The Lower House approved yesterday, February 24, the Redata bill (PL 278/26), which establishes a Special Tax Regime for Data Center Services. The measure reduces the tax burden on the deployment and modernization chain of data processing centers in the country. The House also approved the Anti-G...

The kindness of strangers
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 25 Feb 2026

The Brazilian real continued its appreciation at the beginning of the year, strengthening 5.6% through the first half of February. The dollar fell below BRL 5.20/USD, reaching its lowest level since mid-2024. We believe, however, that this appreciation of the real is not grounded in an improvemen...

Results of the military operation to arrest Nemesio Oseguera, "El Mencho," Leader of the CJNG
MEXICO · In Brief · 24 Feb 2026

Initial notes on its implications On Sunday, February 22, Mexican armed forces carried out an operation to apprehend Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, alias “El Mencho,” the leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG)—Mexico’s most powerful and far-reaching criminal organization, heavily engaged...

The MNB base rate has been cut by 25 bps to 6.25% today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 24 Feb 2026

For the first time since September 2024, the MNB base rate was reduced by 25 bps at today's monthly rate-setting meeting. The interest rate corridor around the base rate was kept at +/-1%-point. The decision corresponded to broad expectation, as regards analyst views and market pricing. There app...

Kazakhstan macro: Tax reform—January budget execution statistics signal caution
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 24 Feb 2026 · 1 response

The January budget execution statistics published last week sent mixed signals, suggesting that the outcome of tax reforms orchestrated by the Kazakh government remains muted. This doesn’t mean that the reform will be unsuccessful, but it could fall short of expectations. The key element of the t...

The Chile-US Cable Spat
CHILE · In Brief · 24 Feb 2026

Chile-US relations were struck a firm blow last week when the United States revoked the visas of Chilean Transport and Telecommunications Minister Juan Carlos Muñoz and two other officials, accusing them of actions that could “compromise critical telecommunications infrastructure” and undermine r...

The Anti-Gang Bill should be put to a vote, the president of the CCJC should announce the rapporteur of the 6x1 PEC, and the two leading presidential candidates are facing headwinds
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Feb 2026

The Anti-Gang Bill, which establishes the Legal Framework for Combating Organized Crime, is currently blocking the House agenda and could be voted on this Tuesday. If approved, it will be sent to President Lula for sanction. The president of the Constitution and Justice Committee (CCJC), Congress...

Entering the fifth year of Russia’s full-scale war: the history teaches us that it teaches nothing
UKRAINE · In Brief · 24 Feb 2026

Four years ago, in the early hours of February 24, 2022, Russian leader Vladimir Putin bought a one-way ticket to war. He believed it would be an easy journey, simply a matter of reclaiming what he saw as abandoned territory. The hardest part would be weathering a brief wave of 'deep concerns' fr...

Politics: Corruption perception index remains at a low level as scandals continue to emerge
MEXICO · Report · 23 Feb 2026

In 2025, Mexico scored 27 points (out of 100) on Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index, ranking 141st out of 182 countries. This represents a minimal improvement of one point compared to 2024 but maintains the negative trend seen since 2014 and positions the country among the ...

Bank of Israel keeps rate at 4%, policy statement turns slightly more hawkish
ISRAEL · In Brief · 23 Feb 2026

The Bank of Israel kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.0% on February 23. As we wrote yesterday, the decision came as no surprise to us. The Bank outlined the main considerations behind its decision not to lower the policy rate. First, the latest economic data did not justify a third ...

Flávio's "moderate Bolsonaro" strategy and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Feb 2026

Congress resumes activity this week. In the Lower House, the government is mobilizing around the 6x1 work schedule proposal, the Mercosur–European Union agreement, and the Public Security constitutional amendment. In the Senate, expectations are building regarding the date of Jorge Messias’s conf...

Trump's tariff loss and China
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 23 Feb 2026

Trump’s loss of the right to broad control over tariffs will have a limited but important impact on China. Exports may improve marginally. Politically, the Supreme Court ruling will further convince China that the U.S. is an unstable actor and a "paper tiger". This could encourage Xi Jinping’s ad...

Signs of slowing economic activity and rising inflationary pressures persist
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 23 Feb 2026

The economic policy environment is particularly challenging, given 2025’s 2.1% growth rate, and December and January y/y inflation at close to the upper limit of the 3%-5% target range. This situation leads to a monetary policy stance that seeks to avoid generating inflationary pressures, while a...

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