GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

Yesterday, the Attorney General's Office (AGU) asked the Supreme Federal Court (STF), in a direct act of unconstitutionality (ADI), to overturn the limit for civil liens established under the Jair Bolsonaro (PL) government and proposed the payment of part of the court sentences as a financial exp...

The shekel will react to progress surrounding a possible Saudi deal

ISRAEL · Report · 26 Sep 2023 · 1 response

1. The shekel appreciated last week, in part due to optimism regarding a possible normalization of relations with Saudi Arabia. 2. If this trend continues it will increase the chances of a rate-hold decision on October 23. 3. The labor market remains tight, with unemployment down and job va...

Politics: Marcelo Ebrard and the MC party are left charting out increasingly complicated decision trees

MEXICO · Report · 26 Sep 2023

After he lost the final opinion polls that formed the basis of the Morena presidential nomination process, Marcelo Ebrard stated there was no longer any place for him in the governing party and that he, nevertheless, would be on the ballot in 2024. But within a matter of days, it became clear tha...

Armenians fleeing Nagorno Karabakh

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 Sep 2023

On September 26 thousands of Armenian civilians left Nagorno Karabakh. The region is legally Azerbaijani but has a huge Armenian majority. Its population is 120,000. It is estimated that 13,000 have fled since September 22. The Prime Minister of Armenia said ethnic cleansing is being committed in...

The shekel will react to progress surrounding a possible Saudi deal

ISRAEL · In Brief · 26 Sep 2023

Geopolitics: Last week, the shekel appreciated by 0.7% against the basket of currencies, despite declining global equities (usually correlated with shekel weakness as institutions must purchase FX in order to maintain their FX exposure target). This appreciation is due in part to increasing optim...

Economics: Growth in aggregate demand in the 2nd quarter concentrated in total investment and private consumption

MEXICO · Report · 25 Sep 2023

The aggregate supply and demand figures for the second quarter, released on September 18, showed very significant gross fixed capital formation growth in construction and in the imported machinery and equipment component, as well as in private consumption. Within private consumption, very high gr...

Russia says that the West is in effect fighting Russia

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Sep 2023

On September 24 the Russian Foreign Minister made the claim and said, "They are fighting us.'' He cited the USD 100 billion Western countries have given in arms to Ukraine. He noted that the United Kingdom and the US are giving Ukraine intelligence and there are Western military advisors in Ukrai...

Zero deficit at risk and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Sep 2023

President Lula is expected to announce his appointments to the Supreme Federal Court (STF) and the Prosecutor General's Office. Depending on whom he appoints, there may be changes to the ministerial team. On Friday, September 29, Lula will undergo surgery. In the House, the new guarantees framewo...

Transition government: Bridge over troubled waters

ECUADOR · Report · 25 Sep 2023

The president elected on October 15 will have to confront the problems of violence from organized crime and violence from nature. Experts have announced that El Niño this year will be stronger than in previous years, although not as extreme as those of 1982 and 1997. On the other hand, violenc...

Lula should announce appointments to the STF and PGR this week, the House may vote on the legal framework for guarantees, and the Senate Environment Committee may vote on the carbon credit market bill

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Sep 2023

President Lula should is expected to announce the appointment for the Supreme Federal Court (STF) and the Prosecutor General's Office (PGR). Currently, the two strongest names to replace Justice Rosa Weber are the Minister of Justice, Flávio Dino (PSB), and the Attorney General of the Federal Gov...

COPOM, Neutral Interest Rate and Potential GDP

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 25 Sep 2023

In the statement issued after the last COPOM meeting, the Central Bank pledged to maintain cuts of 50 basis points per meeting until the end of the year, with the SELIC rate reaching 11.75%. It also warned of the effects of the increase of the neutral interest rate in the United States on Brazil’...

Nagorno Karabakh peace deal seems to be working

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Sep 2023

On September 23 the Armenian Forces in the region said they were implementing the terms of the ceasefire. Injured civilians are being evacuated to Armenia. Russian peacekeepers are assisting, and so is the Red Cross. The Armenian forces are handing over their arms to Russian peacekeepers. Aid is ...

Missed opportunities, improved reserves

TURKEY · Report · 24 Sep 2023 · 1 response

President Erdogan’s New York tour was not a failure, but as the politics author sees it, he missed three huge chances to change the way Turkey and the President himself are perceived. In the immediate term, Swedish membership to NATO and its price of selling Turkey F-16s is becoming convoluted, b...

European Commission considers opening accession talks with Ukraine: a major boost for the embattled nation

UKRAINE · In Brief · 23 Sep 2023

Bloomberg has reported that the European Commission is likely to recommend opening accession negotiations with Ukraine by the end of 2023. If this information is confirmed, it will be exceptionally positive news and a significant boost for Ukraine. Although Ukraine was granted candidate status in...

Ukrainians strike Russian Black Sea Fleet HQ

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Sep 2023

On September 23 a Ukrainian missile struck the HQ in Sevastopol. Videos have shown the building burning. Storm Shadow missiles provided by France and the UK were used in the attack. Russia said it shot down some missiles over Crimea. Ukraine has been concentrating its attacks on Crimea. Ukraine i...