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Monetary policy: Wake-up call to Malacañang and Congress
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 23 Feb 2026 · 1 response

Last week, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) reduced its policy rate by another 25 basis points, extending its easing cycle amid slowing growth and inflation that remains within the 2%–4% target band. On paper, the move is well supported by macroeconomic conditions. Yet the decision also high...

The House will prioritize voting on the Mercosur-EU trade deal, negotiations continue over the vacancy at the TCU, and the Senate may vote on requests to hear from Justices Toffoli and Moraes regarding the Banco Master case
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Feb 2026

The President of the Lower House, Hugo Motta (Republicanos-PB), said that this week he will prioritize the vote on the trade agreement between Mercosur and the European Union. The text will be voted on by the Brazilian Representation in the Mercosur Parliament. Negotiations also continue over the...

Policy rate likely to remain unchanged today amid resilient activity data, tight labor market and security tensions
ISRAEL · In Brief · 23 Feb 2026

Following the publication of the Bank of Israel’s Monthly Index of Economic Activity and the latest job-vacancy data from the Israel Central Bureau of Statistics, we maintain our assessment that there is a high probability the policy rate will remain unchanged at 4.0% today. The data point to con...

Relative calm at home, chaos abroad
TURKEY · Report · 22 Feb 2026

The Peace Commission unveiled it is not-so-eagerly awaited report to the Grand Assembly, which covers matters related to the dissolution of PKK and fate of Ocalan, as well as suggestions for democratization. The Grand Assembly will start debating the proposals after Ramadan. While the PKK portion...

GULF WEEKLY: Oil rises on US-Iran tensions, UAE GDP growth accelerates, Kuwait returns to FATF grey list
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 20 Feb 2026

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent crude touched $72, a 7-month high, as concerns grow about a potential US-Iran war. * There was “good progress” in Omani-mediated nuclear talks, but the US military buildup continues. * Saudi-UAE tensions persist and...

Russian macro: bumpy road behind, sticky road ahead
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 20 Feb 2026

Rosstat has just released its initial GDP growth estimate for 2025, alongside major revisions to the 2024 figures. It now shows that GDP grew by 4.9% in 2024, up from the previously reported 4.3%, with the first estimate even lower, at 4.1%. So far, only the annual national accounts for 2025 and ...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: The debt implications of upgrading Armenia's nuclear industry
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 20 Feb 2026

Armenia and USA signed this month a joint statement of cooperation on the peaceful use of nuclear energy. The government and newswires have hurried to conclude that the USA would provide US$9bn as part of the deal, which ultimately results in constructing a small modular (nuclear) reactor (SMR). ...

Israel geopolitics and macro - outlook for the week ahead
ISRAEL · In Brief · 20 Feb 2026

Rising war tensions with Iran pressure markets as Gaza peace plan begins to take shape This week was marked by rising tensions with Iran, which translated into growing nervousness in financial markets, ahead of next week’s interest rate decision. Reports of a possible U.S. strike and increased mi...

Peru in 2026: Political risks, elections, and economics - Slide presentation and webinar replay
PERU · Presentation · 19 Feb 2026

What should we anticipate in the aftermath of Congress electing a new Speaker, who will become the next president? What will be the impact of the upcoming elections on April 12? Is the central bank's FX intervention effective? What are the side effects? What is Peru's economic forecast for 2026?...

Kazakhstan macro: January 2026 statistics look underwhelming, as economic growth in 2025 may have been overstated
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 19 Feb 2026

The Bureau of National Statistics has released its preliminary 2025 quarterly GDP figures, and as usual, only y-o-y growth rates for cumulative periods within the year are available. As we have mentioned before, the initially published numbers have never been revised in the past, so the reported ...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 19 Feb 2026

The CBR caught the market off guard. Most investors expected that the early-year inflation spike would push the regulator to stay cautious and leave rates unchanged in February. Instead, the CBR cut the rate by 50 bps to 15.5%, made dovish remarks, and expressed growing confidence in future cuts....

Macroeconomic and geopolitical developments – Weekly report, February 18, 2026
ISRAEL · Report · 18 Feb 2026

Israel’s economy continues the transition from a war economy to a more post-war period with a moderate growth phase. While activity remains expansionary, momentum is easing, and growth is increasingly export-led, with domestic demand still relatively weak. Geopolitical developments remain a key s...

All eyes are on the election now
HUNGARY · Report · 18 Feb 2026

European gas prices normalized once the roughly three-week period of extraordinary cold weather in January ended. The EU eventually approved its planned diversification away from Russian gas imports, but that did not have any significant market impact, suggesting the availability of sufficient su...

RP–China dispute on the West Philippine Sea: the fourth crack between Marcos and Duterte
PHILIPPINES · Report · 18 Feb 2026

The collapse of the UniTeam alliance between President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and Vice President Sara Duterte has unfolded through a series of political fractures — from disagreements over international legal cooperation, to constitutional reform maneuvering, to impeachment battles. Yet these earli...

Inflation under guardianship
VENEZUELA · Report · 18 Feb 2026 · 1 response

Inflation rebounded to 32 percent in January 2026 amid sharp forex volatility, reflecting the market rate surge in the first two weeks of the month. On January 7, the forex gap peaked at 179 percent before closing the month at 39 percent on announcements that outlined a more favorable outlook for...

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