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With a little help from my (not so close) friends
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 11 May 2026

Brazilian trade balance should benefit considerably from the oil shock, given the country’s position as a net exporter of this product. Our projections indicate that the oil trade surplus could approach USD $56 billion in 2026. Moreover, there is a deepening trade relationship with China and the ...

Weekly report, May 11, 2026: Iran rejects ceasefire proposal; Israeli politics heats up, while markets focus on April CPI, the shekel, and the upcoming rate decision
ISRAEL · Report · 11 May 2026

Key developments and outlook: - Iran rejected the U.S. proposal to end the war: Israel assassinated a senior Hezbollah commander in Beirut, while fighting in southern Lebanon and exchanges of fire in the Gulf region continue. A diplomatic settlement appears unlikely in the near term, with the...

The committee on the 6x1 work schedule will hear from the Finance Minister, the rapporteur for the bill on the MEI revenue threshold should present his work plan, and Justice Marques will assume the presidency of the TSE
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 May 2026

The Special Committee in the Lower House discussing the end of the 6x1 work schedule will hold two public hearings this week. On Tuesday (May 12), the committee will hear from Finance Minister Dario Durigan. The rapporteur for Complementary Bill (PLP) No. 108/21, which raises the maximum annual g...

Economics: Poor Q1 public finance figures; Pemex remains a persistent burden
MEXICO · Report · 11 May 2026

In the first quarter of 2026, public finances deteriorated, casting serious doubt on whether a genuine "fiscal consolidation" process is actually underway this year — that is, whether a meaningful reduction in fiscal deficits, and in particular in the Broad Public Sector Borrowing Requirements (P...

Hope for the best, prepare for the worst
TURKEY · Report · 10 May 2026

In domestic politics, there is not much to write home about. President Erdogan seems to have put all urgent domestic policy issues, such as how to get rid of CHP indefinitely on hold, pending the outcome of the Iran War, to which the politics author stubbornly refers to as the Gulf Crisis. This p...

Domestic political risk has fallen markedly: Péter Magyar elected for prime minister today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 May 2026

The newly elected National Assembly held its first session today. Péter Magyar was elected for prime minister, the institutional structure of the new government, meaning the list of ministries, is now approved, and the new government cabinet is expected to be up and running by May 12, Tuesday. Th...

GULF WEEKLY: Iran strikes ships and the UAE, Saudi Q1 deficit surges, PIF issues bonds
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 08 May 2026 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Trump’s “Project Freedom” in Hormuz led to the first Iranian fire at ships and the UAE in a month. * At the same time, there was talk of progress in peace proposals; oil yoyoed in the $96-114 range . * Saudi Arabia and Ku...

Tax collection improves in April, and upward revisions of expenditures are likely
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 08 May 2026

The Ministry of Finance reported that in 4M26, total federal budget revenues reached RUB11.7 trln having fallen y-o-y by 4.5%. The collected amount accounted for 29.9% of the yearly plan and was behind schedule for this period. Oil-and-gas (O&G) revenues increased in April, but the amount was not...

Trump said his meeting with Lula went well, Justice Carmen Lúcia issued her opinion on the oil royalties case, and the House Committee on the 6x1 work schedule will hear from Dario Durigan
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 May 2026

President Lula held another meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump. Shortly after the meeting, Trump wrote on social media that the discussion was “very good” and that new meetings between representatives of both countries will be scheduled in the coming months to address bilateral issues. Supr...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Iran shock reshapes CCA macro dynamics
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 08 May 2026

The Iran crisis has brought to the fore two relevant cross-cutting themes in the CCA related to inflation (monetary policy) and exchange rates. Regarding inflation and monetary policy, early in the crisis I constructed a simple comparative framework (vulnerability index) that aimed to capture ...

The latest poll shows little change to the electoral landscape, Lula will meet with Trump today, and the Lower House approved a bill establishing the National Policy on Critical and Strategic Minerals
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 May 2026

Another presidential succession poll was released yesterday. Conducted by Canal Meio/Ideia Big Data, the poll showed little change compared to previous polls, with President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) remaining well ahead of the other prospective candidates. Today, President Lula will...

The compass, the map and the fog
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 07 May 2026

We believe that the reading of the most recent edition of the Copom Minutes was dominated by one single question: will the easing cycle, pardon, the calibration of the Selic continue, or will the BC be forced to end it, or pause it, after only modest two cuts of 0.25 p.p. each? Our understandi...

The Orbán regime shows early signs of disintegration
HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 May 2026

It is still three days to go until the first session of the newly elected parliament, at which Mr. Magyar is supposed to be elected as prime minister. Yet it is spectacular that outgoing PM Orbán's power machine does not seem to work exactly as a precise Swiss-made clockwork any more. Initially, ...

Debates swirling about five sectors
INDIA · Report · 06 May 2026

We analyze Indian export dynamism beyond traditional low-cost sectors such as business process outsourcing, garment manufacturing, and basic IT services. We examine five emerging industries, the subject of contemporary debates, where private Indian firms may have the ability to achieve global mar...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 06 May 2026

Apr 23 Prime Minister: Kazakhstan plans to build 5K km of railways in 4 years. Asian Development Bank: By 2030, the bank plans to allocate $5.5 bln to Kazakhstan for green energy and energy infrastructure projects. KMG: Kazakhstan views the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route as a crucial...

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