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The House is expected to attempt a vote on the Anti-Gang Bill, the Senate Economic Affairs Committee will discuss the bill that taxes fintechs and betting, and the BNDES may announce an infrastructure financing operation
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Nov 2025

The Lower House is expected to attempt a vote on Tuesday, November 18, on the Anti-Gang Bill (Bill No. 5,582/25), drafted by the Executive Branch. The rapporteur is Congressman Guilherme Derrite (PP-SP). Also on Tuesday, the Senate’s Economic Affairs Committee (CAE) will discuss the bill introduc...

Industrial production growth numbers remain high in 10M25, deceleration likely in 2026
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 17 Nov 2025

According to a recent publication by the Bureau of National Statistics, industrial production grew by 7.3% y-o-y in 10M25 (slightly down from 7.4% in 9M25). In October alone industrial production was up by 7.1% pointing to a gradual, albeit natural, deceleration. As usual, the official m-o-m do n...

Losing steam
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 17 Nov 2025

Economic activity lost strength starting in the second quarter and now shows signs cooling aggregate demand. Retail sales indicate that the payment of court-ordered debts (precatórios) was not enough to sustain a favorable outcome for consumption. Even segments more sensitive to income have shown...

Politics: Sheinbaum's administration under fire on multiple fronts
MEXICO · Report · 17 Nov 2025

With Claudia Sheinbaum’s presidential administration now into its second year, prospects are not as bright as they once appeared. Sheinbaum had everything going for her, including AMLO’s legacy and high approval ratings and a weak opposition. But her incapacity to break with AMLO’s erroneous poli...

Analysts expect a base rate cut only in H2 2026
HUNGARY · In Brief · 17 Nov 2025

The Monetary Council is set to hold its regular monthly rate-setting meeting tomorrow. Analysts participating in Portfolio.hu's monthly poll uniformly expect the 6.5% base rate to hold on this occasion. Indeed, it would be just very surprising if the Council decided to go for a rate cut, after it...

GDP growth markedly slowed in 3Q25
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 17 Nov 2025

In the aftermath of 9M25 economic statistics published somewhat two weeks ago that pointed to a persistent deceleration of economic growth, Rosstat recently released its 3Q25 y-o-y GDP growth flash estimate at 0.6%. No more details, such as Q-o-Q GDP growth (seasonally adjusted or unadjusted) are...

Too much political news to digest
TURKEY · Report · 16 Nov 2025

The politics author is under a news bombardment, all interrelated, which will take a week or two to fully digest and to reflect to his current predictions. The week started with the 4K pages long indictment of Ekrem Imamoglu, which, most notably, included a request by the prosecutors to the Attor...

GULF WEEKLY: Construction powers Dubai GDP surge, Qatar’s deficit widens slightly, Saudi tourism gigaprojects to open soon, Sudani leads fragmented Iraqi election
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 14 Nov 2025 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil is set for a weekly gain as a strike on a Russian export terminal briefly offset supply glut worries. * The IEA reinstated a “business as usual” scenario that would see oil demand growing until 2050. * Saudi Arabia re...

Haddad gave an interview yesterday about the bus fares project, next week should be busy despite the holiday, and Lula is expected to sign the income tax exemption bill on Wednesday
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Nov 2025

Finance Minister Fernando Haddad gave an interview to O Estado de S. Paulo. As previously reported, he confirmed that the project to eliminate bus fares will not move forward next year and will only be implemented if it proves fiscally viable. Next week is expected to be busy in Brasília, despite...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Georgia is not on my mind
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 14 Nov 2025

I feel compelled to write this note on Georgia given that it has again hit the headlines, with the European Commission's annual enlargement report concluding that the country is a "candidate in name only", as well as the government's lawsuit before the Constitutional Court seeking to ban three ke...

Economic growth steadily remains above expectations
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 14 Nov 2025

The Bureau of National Statistics officially announced that in 9M25 the nation’s GDP grew by 6.3% as key segments performed unexpectedly well. The industry was up y-o-y by 7.3% (with mining delivering faster growth at 9.3% while manufacturing grew by 6.2%). Construction delivered 14.9% y-o-y grow...

Motta postpones vote on Anti-Faction Bill today Nov 18, the Senate approved the reappointment of Paulo Gonet as Prosecutor General, and Alcolumbre announced the Senate’s end-of-year voting schedule
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Nov 2025

After requests from party leaders, House President Hugo Motta (Republicanos–PB) postponed until next Tuesday (Nov 18) the vote on the Anti-Faction Bill (PL 5582/25). He therefore denied the 30-day extension requested by right-wing governors. The Senate floor yesterday approved the reappointment o...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 13 Nov 2025 · 1 response

Nov 1 Prime-minister: Swiss Harvest Agro plans to invest more than $700 mln in the development of agriculture projects in Kazakhstan. Nov 2 OPEC+: Oil production by OPEC+ countries in 1Q26 may decrease moderately vs December level due to Kazakhstan's obligations to compensate for the significant ...

National Treasury commits to staying the fiscal course, introducing a new inflation target amid global uncertainty
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 13 Nov 2025

Delivering this year’s Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS), Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana noted that South Africa, like many other nations, is navigating a period of intensifying global competition and deepening economic and political divisions. The MTBPS, tabled annually during eithe...

USDT, OFAC and inflation
VENEZUELA · Report · 12 Nov 2025 · 1 response

We revise down our exchange rate and inflation forecasts for 2025 and present two scenarios for 2026, depending on whether or not U.S. OFAC sanctions on Venezuela are tightened. For November–December 2025, we assume that USDT supply expansion will continue, market acceptance of such will gradu...

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