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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Country in a wait-and-see stance, after withdrawal of fiscal reform bill
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 15 Nov 2024

After the government unexpectedly decided to withdraw the tax reform bill from Congress due to public opposition, Dominican society remains in a holding pattern, awaiting the government’s next steps to ease constraints on public finances. At the time of the withdrawal, the government announced th...

The reform of the pension system goes to the Legislative Assembly
PANAMA · Report · 15 Nov 2024

The reform of the CSS legislation, in particular the pension system, is the most recent initiative of the Mulino administration, after the Fiscal Responsibility Law enacted at the beginning of the month (which suffered minor changes in the legislative) and the Budget Law, which was changed substa...

GULF WEEKLY: Qatar and Kuwait replace sovereign wealth chiefs, Neom replaces CEO, Dubai GDP steady in Q2, Qatar pauses Gaza mediation
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 15 Nov 2024

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC revised down its oil demand forecasts for a fourth month, but they still look high. * The UK-GCC free trade agreement is reportedly nearing agreement after two years of talks. * Neom replaced its CEO amidst continued...

Inflation in October as expected, core accelerates
ISRAEL · In Brief · 15 Nov 2024

Inflation in October as expected, core accelerates In October, the CPI rose by 0.5% m/m (according to consensus, we were leaning towards 0.6%), and remained stable at 3.5% y/y. Core inflation (The CPI excluding energy and fresh produce) accelerated to 3.3% y/y from 3.0% last month, mostly due to ...

Improved electricity supply sparks optimism for South Africa's economic outlook
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 15 Nov 2024

• South Africa’s growth: The South African economy’s real GDP was only 0.4% higher in H1-2024 than it was during the corresponding period in 2023. The country’s logistical issues remain a major hindrance to economic activity, while there was heightened uncertainty due to the May 29th general elec...

Central bank adopts a (de facto) crawling peg
VENEZUELA · Report · 15 Nov 2024

We have revised up our inflation and exchange rate projections following the October breakdown of the exchange rate peg and the subsequent volatility and uncertainty in the foreign exchange market. We foresee that the central bank will have the necessary resources to sustain a gradual devaluat...

Webinar replay: GCC 2025 Outlook - Oil, debt, diversification and Trump
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 15 Nov 2024

What are the GCC's views on the outlook for oil and OPEC+'s strategy? What are the trends in economic diversification, including Saudi Vision 2030? How could the regional conflict impact the Gulf states? Will relations with the US change under the next president? Visit our calendar page to watch ...

Webinar replay: China's economic dilemmas
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 15 Nov 2024

How important is a consumption stimulus for China? Why is it so difficult for China to rebalance its economy towards consumption? Will the central government use its borrowing capacity and clean balance sheet to revive local-government spending? Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our ...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Shall we brace for a currency crisis in Georgia?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 15 Nov 2024

For a week we tried to steer away from Georgia and discussed (last week) the medium-term budgetary envelope in Uzbekistan, but events in Georgia give us no respite. The very large decline in FX reserves in Georgia last month has raised fears about the sustainability of FX buffers in an environmen...

Economic growth remains strong enough in October but is uneven among sectors
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 15 Nov 2024

As the tenge slowly climbs toward the USD/KZT 500 milestone mark amid some unwillingness of the regulators to see it weakening, as the NBK occasionally reiterates its intentions to “support” the currency, the Kazakh economy keeps growing relatively fast. This “support” largely stems from the need...

One dead after bombing in front of the STF, the government is concerned about the approval of Tax Reform regulation by the end of the year, and the bill on parliamentary fund transfers should be put to a vote next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Nov 2024

Regarding the explosions that occurred yesterday (November 13) in Brasília (DF), at the Praça dos Três Poderes, leaving one man dead, it is worth noting that, instead of invoking fear, it rekindles a sense of unity among the branches of government and authorities in defense of democracy, reminisc...

Free path to the presidency or two nails in a coffin?
ECUADOR · Report · 14 Nov 2024

The Ecuadorian political sky has been darkened by clouds of political abuse instead of clouds bringing desperately needed rain. Vice President Veronica Abad was “suspended” for 150 days by an administrative decision from the Minister of Labor, and the candidacy of Jan Topic, who was coming on ...

GDP y-o-y growth slows in 3Q24, dragged by agriculture and construction
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 14 Nov 2024

Rosstat published its flash 3Q24 GDP growth flash estimate, and it appeared that economic growth slowed as it posted a mere 3.1% y-o-y as a preliminary figure. So far, Rosstat has not published any other 3Q24 GDP data, such as the nominal number or m-o-m growth (including seasonally adjusted). It...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 14 Nov 2024

Oct 30 Government: Due to the Tengiz project expansion, Kazakhstan expects to receive $2.8 bln in the budget by the end of 2025. Economy Ministry: The foreign assets of the National Fund of Kazakhstan will amount to $78.7 bln by 2027. Kazakhstan Automobile Union: Production of motor vehicles in K...

Strong export growth is shekel supportive
ISRAEL · In Brief · 13 Nov 2024

Exports surged in recent months. In August-October, industrial exports increased by 15% q/q, with strong growth in sectors identified as mostly defense: Metal products/machinery and transport equipment, but in pharma and chemical products as well. But generally, high-tech exports were up 14%. Imp...

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