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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Dec 29 -
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Central America databank Dec 19
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Chile databank Nov 28
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Dec 19
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Dominican Republic databank Dec 23
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Ecuador databank Dec 19
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Gulf Countries databank Jan 9
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Hungary databank Dec 17
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India databank Jun 26
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Mexico databank Jan 15
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Panama databank Nov 12
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Peru databank Dec 12
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Philippines databank Jan 8
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Poland databank Nov 3
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Russia Economics databank Jan 16
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South Africa databank Jan 6
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Turkey databank Dec 24
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Ukraine databank Nov 10
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Venezuela databank Jan 7
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - VENEZUELA: WHAT'S NEXT?...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Headline inflation rate down sharply in December, further reduction is likely in Q1
HUNGARY · In Brief · 13 Jan 2026
Headline CPI-inflation was 0.1% mom, 3.3% yoy in December, the latter sharply down from 3.8% yoy in November. Despite the significant move by the yoy rate, this data was no surprise: the median analyst expected exactly this outcome, according to Portfolio.hu, and our own forecast table included 3...
Economics: New tariffs on Chinese products approved, with a big share of intermediate products and M&E
MEXICO · Report · 13 Jan 2026
On December 10th, tariffs on 1,463 products for countries with which Mexico does not have a trade agreement were approved, after the initiative was presented to Congress by the Ministry of the Economy last September. As we mentioned in our September 30 Economic Outlook, these tariffs were propose...
The 2026 ANC January 8th Statement: renewed emphasis on local government ahead of municipal elections
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 13 Jan 2026
In his 2026 January 8th Statement, President Cyril Ramaphosa reiterated the ANC’s political and policy priorities against the backdrop of growing public dissatisfaction and ahead of municipal elections later in 2026. This address also comes in the wake of the 2024 general elections, in which the ...
Politics: The repercussions in Mexico of the US intervention in Venezuela
MEXICO · Report · 12 Jan 2026
The U.S. military intervention in Venezuela has shifted the global landscape, increasing pressure on the Mexican government to address the links between politics and organized crime. The repercussions in Mexico will be highly significant becaise this event has exposed—through the stances taken by...
Master and Maduro: the opposition's bets and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Jan 2026
President Lula (PT) will sign, this week, the 2026 Federal Budget and the bill creating the Management Committee of the Goods and Services Tax (IBS). Both texts were approved by the National Congress in December. Two presidential election polls are set to be released—by Boas Ideias Inteligência e...
Not so fast
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 12 Jan 2026
The disinflationary process observed in 2025 was largely driven by the strong appreciation of the real and favorable food price dynamics. Going forward, the Central Bank will have to bring inflation back to target through the ongoing slowdown in activity and through a weakening of the labor marke...
Macroeconomic and geopolitical developments – Weekly report, January 12, 2026
ISRAEL · Report · 12 Jan 2026
The past week was marked by the Bank of Israel’s rate cut and the market’s reaction to this somewhat unexpected move. This came alongside heightened geopolitical developments, most notably the expanding protests in Iran. While the latter do not yet have a direct impact on Israel’s macro outlook, ...
A profound change in the financing patterns of non-financial firms
INDIA · Report · 12 Jan 2026
A profound structural shift has redefined the capital structure of Indian non-financial firms, characterized by historic deleveraging. Data for FY25 indicates the debt-to-equity ratio for unlisted companies has fallen to 1.01—the lowest since liberalization in 1991—while the interest coverage rat...
Dull economy, hectic politics
TURKEY · Report · 11 Jan 2026
This week’s political essays start with foreign policy developments, covering allegations of illicit relations between Maduro and Turkey, Iranian unrest and the beginning of the end in Syria in the showdown between Kurds and al Sharaa. Herein in the short-term good scenarios are few. In the first...
China and Venezuela
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 09 Jan 2026
The American extraction of Maduro in Venezuela and American engagement in the country is likely to have two long-term impacts on China: 1) New assumptions about American military power, particularly relating to Taiwan; and 2) A more multilateral approach to debt negotiations with Venezuela ...
GULF WEEKLY: Saudi bonds, Tadawul opens to all foreigners, Oman financial center plans, protests intensify in Iran
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 09 Jan 2026
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The oil market digested the implications of Venezuela developments and the major protests in Iran. * OPEC+ held steady, but Kazakhstan’s overproduction could average 65% in H1, prompting a crisis. * Saudi-backed forces to...
Positive results at the end of 2025
INDONESIA · Report · 09 Jan 2026
The Indonesian economy has shown resilience in the midst global uncertainty as well as uncertainty in domestic policies. The external balance remained strong, but the fiscal situation faced increasing challenges. The real sector continued to be driven by the external accounts, domestic consumptio...
Preliminary figures from the National Fund suggest that overall tax collection in December was fairly moderate
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 09 Jan 2026
The Ministry of Finance has begun releasing full-year 2025 financial statistics, starting with data on the National Fund’s assets. As of January 1, 2026, the Fund’s assets rose to KZT39.644 trln from KZT34.730 trln a year earlier. While the official figures are in national currency, applying rele...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Rate monotony is the base case across the CCA in 2026, with a handful of compelling exceptions
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 09 Jan 2026
I have discussed on a number of occasions the analytical framework I employ to think about currencies in the CCA region, so I now turn to the rates space. I use three simple quantitative models in an attempt to pin down the proper stance of monetary policy in each individual country. I then proce...
2025 fiscal deficit is much bigger than officially expected... or will it still be in line in the end?
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Jan 2026
It has just been reported that the central government's cash deficit ended up at HUF5739bn or 6.6% of GDP in full-year 2025, according to preliminary figures. This means no less than HUF1668bn (an annualised 23.1% of GDP) in December alone, which is quite an impressive sum for a single month, eve...