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TOPIC OF THE WEEK: South Caucasus—Winners and losers from the Iran-Israel conflict
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 20 Jun 2025

Two of the three South Caucasian nations directly border Iran, and their initial reaction to the Israel-Iran conflict says a lot about their relative positions vis-a-vis the regional battle. While Armenia categorically condemned the "one-sided attack on Iran", Azerbaijan opted for a restrained rh...

MPC: Not much new or unexpected
TURKEY · In Brief · 19 Jun 2025

The CBRT/MPC maintained the policy rate (one-week repo auction rate) as well as the O/N lending and borrowing rates at 46%, 49% and 44.5%, respectively, as expected. The content of the statement was little changed as well (link here and here to the new and old statements, respectively). The CBRT ...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 19 Jun 2025

Military escalation in the Middle East has pushed oil prices higher by almost 10%. As it is next to impossible to predict the duration of the “hot stage” of the conflict forecasting prices on the energy markets is uneasy. However, it is reasonable to assume that oil prices won’t fall below $60 pe...

Israel’s economy at war: macro scenario amid the war with Iran
ISRAEL · Report · 18 Jun 2025

A conflict lasting several weeks is expected to cause a moderate contraction in GDP in Q2 and Q3 2025. Annual growth is projected to slow to just 0.3%. The fiscal deficit is expected to widen to 7% of GDP, driven by surging defense spending and a drop in tax revenues—pushing the debt-to-GDP rati...

Senator Alcolumbre read the request to establish a CPMI into the INSS scandal, Congress overturned a presidential veto that would have increased taxes, and the Central Bank will announce the Selic
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Jun 2025

The President of Congress, Senator Davi Alcolumbre (União-AP), has read the request to establish a Joint Parliamentary Committee of Inquiry (CPMI) into the INSS and authorized the formation of the panel. Yesterday, during a joint congressional session, lawmakers also voted on presidential vetoes....

Are financial markets in Israel predicting a near end to the war?
ISRAEL · In Brief · 17 Jun 2025

The Tel Aviv Stock Exchange extended its gains today, following Sunday’s 5.1% surge, with the TA-90 Index rising a further 0.82%. The advance came as Israeli military operations in Iran continued to progress, while rocket fire from Iran appeared to subside. Investor sentiment was further lifted b...

Central Bank increases liquidity to stimulate the economy
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 17 Jun 2025

Yesterday, the Monetary Board authorized the Central Bank to implement a liquidity provision program amounting to DOP 81 billion, aimed at promoting the revitalization of economic activity amid high global uncertainty, upward pressure on interest rates, and slower growth in credit to the private ...

Pressure on prices and the Bolívar
VENEZUELA · Report · 17 Jun 2025

We have revised down our exchange rate and inflation forecasts on the assumption that, starting in June 2025, the government will maintain a monthly increase of 9–11 percent in the official exchange rate in an effort to ease inflationary pressures. Nevertheless, the 2025–2026 outlook remains one ...

Carpe diem, President Noboa!
ECUADOR · Report · 17 Jun 2025

Depending on the source, Ecuador’s GDP growth for 2025 is placed between 1.5% and 1.8% (Central Bank), with an average of 1.7% (IMF). We lean towards the 1.5% y/y change that, albeit a significant recovery from the negative 2% of 2024, is still well below the vigorous economic dynamics the countr...

The House approved the urgent status of the legislative decree on the IOF, Congress is expected to analyze presidential vetoes, and the Copom meetings will begin today to decide on the benchmark interest rate
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Jun 2025

As expected, the Lower House approved the urgent status for the legislative decree bill that overrides President Lula’s decree on the IOF tax. The margin was wide: 346 to 97. A session of the National Congress is scheduled for today. More than 60 presidential vetoes are pending review, some datin...

Another month of data shows little has changed
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 17 Jun 2025

Special points to highlight in this report: - China’s growth model remains structurally unbalanced, as the government continues to prioritize aggressive GDP targets without implementing the consumption-focused reforms needed for sustainable development. There was, however, some good news in M...

South Africa’s external position remains relatively sustainable
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 17 Jun 2025

Data released by the South African Reserve Bank shows that, during the first quarter of 2025, the deficit of South Africa’s current account narrowed slightly, to R35.6 billion, down from R39.3 billion in the fourth quarter of 2024. As a percentage of GDP, the deficit held steady at 0.5% over both...

Political focus shifts to elections; real GDP growth forecast trimmed; local bond prices expected to slide in H2
PERU · Forecast · 17 Jun 2025

In this forecast, we examine prospects for the July 2026 general elections, and how the economy is likely to respond. In the first section, we focus on the electoral calendar and the candidates, and try to predict the winner of the presidency. It is too early for our analysis to be anything other...

Economic growth looks strong in 5M25, and combined with elevated inflation support budget revenues
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 17 Jun 2025

The Bureau of National Statistics reported that the short-term indicator (a monthly flash estimate of economic activity that covers six key segments of the economy) grew y-o-y by 8.6% in 5M25 (up from 8.5% in 4M25). The number appears high, not least due to a more moderate economic growth a year ...

The PSD's political chessboard and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Jun 2025

The Lower House may vote on an urgent status for the legislative decree that suspends the president’s decree on the IOF. Congress will hold a session to analyze presidential vetoes, during which the request to open a Joint Parliamentary Committee of Inquiry (CPMI) on the INSS may be read. In the ...

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