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The Banco Master case continues to cause repercussions in Brasília, today marks the start of the party-switching window, and STF President Justice Fachin will discuss judicial compensation next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Mar 2026

Revelations about the conversations between the owner of Banco Master, Daniel Vorcaro, and the authorities continue to emerge and are generating repercussions in Brasília. According to journalist Malu Gaspar, one of the last messages Vorcaro sent on the day he was arrested, November 17 of last ye...

Webinar replay: War in Iran - Implications for the Gulf and Israel
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 06 Mar 2026

As war breaks out with Iran, what's happening on the ground? How might the Gulf states respond to Iranian attacks? What are the short-term and long-term economic and market implications for Israel and the Gulf countries? Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar featuring Glob...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Opaque BoP flows sustain Kyrgyzstan’s sanctions overhang
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 06 Mar 2026

I previously hypothesized a direct link between what I dubbed the "rogue" E&O in Kyrgyzstan's BoP and the sanctions on the banks that the EU imposed last Oct. The Feb 26 visit of EU Sanctions Envoy David O'Sullivan to Bishkek to warn the government that its heavy “re-exports” to Russia of dual-us...

Israel weekly preview: missile fire declines but endgame unclear as pressure on Iran rises; budget deadline and key economic data ahead
ISRAEL · In Brief · 06 Mar 2026

A difficult week has passed for Israel since early Saturday morning, when the second Israel-Iran war began. For most of the week, large parts of the economy were effectively shut down, and missile launches toward Israel from Iran and later from Hezbollah sent Israelis repeatedly to shelters throu...

Wage growth eases despite a tight labor market
ISRAEL · In Brief · 05 Mar 2026

Today the Central Bureau of Statistics published wage data for January. When we analyze the figures, we see a clear slowdown in the pace of wage growth in the final quarter of 2025. Trend data show that nominal wages increased by 2.2% in current prices between October and December 2025, compared ...

January 2026 statistics points to negative y-o-y economic growth and looks puzzling
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 05 Mar 2026

Rosstat reported that in January, output of the five basic sectors — industry, agriculture, construction, transportation, and trade — fell by a sharp 3.2% y-o-y, following y-o-y growth of 4.0% in December and 1.4% for 2025 overall. Such big swings in economic trends can signal major turning point...

The House approved the Public Security PEC, the CCJ should hold public hearings on reducing working hours and ending the 6x1 work schedule, and the Senate approved the Mercosur-EU trade agreement
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Mar 2026

The plenary of the Lower House concluded the vote on the Public Security Constitutional Amendment Proposal (PEC) submitted by the Executive Branch. The text now moves to the Senate. Yesterday morning, the Lower House Constitution and Justice Committee (CCJ) approved a request by Congressman Paulo...

Shockwaves from Tehran: Quantifying the Economic Impact on the South Caucasus
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 05 Mar 2026

In my Mon note I expressed bewilderment at the lack of proper reaction of Armenian authorities to the fiery situation unfolding at their southern border. In a video gone viral in the country, the PM Pashinyan was caught on camera munching on corn in a bus that was a on campaign tour in the countr...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 05 Mar 2026

The Finance Ministry plans to revise the cut-off oil price that determines operations with the National Wealth Fund. Under the current fiscal rule, if oil prices fall below $59 per barrel, the government sells CNY or gold from the NWF to offset lost energy export revenues. In December 2025 and Ja...

Days 4&5: Trump moots Hormuz escort but oil hits $84, US embassies and radars targeted, Khamenei’s son likely to succeed
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 04 Mar 2026 · 1 response

This update is going out as Wednesday comes to a close in the US and the GCC and Iran begin Thursday morning. Iran The intense US and Israeli bombing has continued. The US has struck over 2,000 targets and is using 200 planes in the region, along with long-range bombers. The body count in Iran ha...

The last peace-of-mind week ever?
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 04 Mar 2026

So far this century, leftist governments in Latin America have typically lasted between 10 and 18 years, with Chávez – Maduro - Rodriguez outlasting this average, reaching 26 years (Table 1). Hence, Gustavo Petro needs to demonstrate that he and his heir can emulate his peers and reach at least 8...

Alcolumbre upheld the CPMI’s decision to access Lulinha’s confidential information, the House may vote on the report on the Public Security PEC, and the Senate may vote on the Mercosur–European Union trade agreement
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Mar 2026

The government suffered a defeat in the Senate. Senate President Davi Alcolumbre (União-AP) upheld the decision of the Joint Parliamentary Committee of Inquiry (CPMI) on the INSS to access the confidential information of Fábio Luís Lula da Silva, known as "Lulinha", President Lula’s son. Today, t...

The ups and downs of the transition
VENEZUELA · Report · 04 Mar 2026

Two months after the January 3 break, Venezuela’s transition has unfolded without the collapse many expected, and Rodríguez’s government has delivered on its two most visible commitments: Hydrocarbons Law reform and the Amnesty Law. While both are tangible signals of political action, each does c...

An economy on farm support
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Mar 2026

There were no surprises this time: GDP growth in the fourth quarter of last year reached 0.1%, slightly above the previous quarter (0.0%, revised from 0.1%), bringing growth in 2025 to 2.3%, compared to 3.4% in 2024. Domestic demand, the main driver of aggregate demand expansion in 2024, showe...

Lula said he might visit the U.S. this month, Lula should meet today with Alckmin and Haddad to discuss the São Paulo gubernatorial race, and the House approved the bill that allows pharmacies in supermarkets
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Mar 2026

Last week, President Lula announced that he might visit the United States during the week of March 15. Following the attacks on Iran, however, there are doubts about that schedule. The conflict between the United States and Iran has become part of the presidential race. Flavio Bolsonaro said the ...

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