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Despite Lula's edge the election is likely to be tight and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Jan 2026

Two new presidential succession polls will be released this week, one by AtlasIntel and another by Instituto Futura. The World Economic Forum takes place in Davos, Switzerland, without the meaningful participation of Brazilian authorities. The European Parliament is set to vote on two proposals r...

What to expect for the Year of the Horse
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 20 Jan 2026

Special points to highlight in this report: - China’s economy ended 2025 much as it began—with an overreliance on a growing trade surplus and non-productive investment to drive growth. A sharp decline in the latter over the year saw quarterly GDP growth decline steadily from a very strong 5.4...

We’re gonna need a bigger boat…
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 20 Jan 2026

There is considerable debate regarding Brazil’s growth potential. Despite a visible acceleration of the Brazilian economy in the post-pandemic period, when GDP grew around 3% per year, we have argued that a considerable portion of this performance is due to the utilization of previously idle reso...

Fear of floating
ARGENTINA · Report · 20 Jan 2026

The beginning of the new year brought few surprises. The BCRA began to make daily purchases of reserves as announced; it also canceled the tranche of the swap with the U.S. Treasury disbursed in October and placed a one-year repo with international banks, the proceeds of which were sold in part t...

Rising Security Risks in Guatemala
CENTRAL AMERICA · In Brief · 19 Jan 2026

By Fernando Naranjo and Félix Delgado Guatemala is facing a period of heightened security stress with significant institutional and economic implications. Over the past weekend, inmates seized control of three prisons while gang members carried out coordinated attacks that resulted in the murder ...

Policy Response to Slumping Business Sentiment
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 19 Jan 2026

Amid declining confidence in the business community—reflected in various opinion polls following the flood control scandals—the Philippine government’s economic managers convened around 300 top business leaders on Friday, January 16, 2026. The meeting sought to reassure investors of the governmen...

A brief lull in excitement
TURKEY · Report · 18 Jan 2026

Much fun has gone out from domestic politics as, for reasons to be explored, President Erdogan unilaterally ceased his attacks on CHP. Instead, the new agenda is his succession plan, involving his son Bilal. Erdogan has no intention to retire; Bilal is being groomed for the post in case of an eme...

GULF WEEKLY: Iran protests subside, Saudi minerals deals, Oman cabinet reshuffle
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 16 Jan 2026

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil touched a two-month high of $66 when Iran-US tensions peaked mid-week, then eased. * At least 3,000 were killed in Iran, but Trump backed off plans for military action, for now at least. * The US did announce a 25% ta...

Economic growth remained strong in December
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 16 Jan 2026

The Bureau of National Statistics reported that the short-term indicator—a flash estimate of economic activity across six main sectors—rose by 9.4% in 2025. For 11M25, it was up 9.3%, suggesting a bit of acceleration in the final month. Transportation and warehousing led the way with 20.4% growth...

CIS Essential Politics: January 1-15
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 16 Jan 2026

Headlines: - Corruption scandal in Ukraine claims Timoshenko. - Ukraine reshuffles cabinet. - Humanitarian crisis in Ukraine as Russia annihilates the Ukrainian energy sector. - US seizes tanker linked to Russian shadow fleet.

EU decisions regarding Hungary reportedly postponed until the election
HUNGARY · In Brief · 16 Jan 2026

Early this week, the President of the Republic officially called the parliamentary election for April 12, the earliest legally possible date, in line with long-time expectation, but running counter to some local speculations that PM Orbán may act to postpone the election if developments are not f...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Current accounts posted further gains in 3Q25, reinforcing improvement in external buffers
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 16 Jan 2026

Wading through BoP data may not be the most exciting thing in economic analysis, including because it is quite backward looking, but in my mostly frontier countries it helps elucidate key insights on the external side. The 3Q25 data for the CCA space has now been published for all economies save ...

The deficit and the debt
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 16 Jan 2026

The Minister of Finance, seeking to defend his legacy (an arduous task, I acknowledge), stated in an interview that “public debt is increasing because of high interest rates, not because of the deficit”. This is not true, as we will show in this Report. The primary deficits recorded in 2023, 2024...

Mining reopening and Canal projects to drive growth, with inflation near zero, unemployment high and fiscal compliance dependent on a land sale to the ACP
PANAMA · Forecast · 16 Jan 2026

We project real GDP growth of 4.3% in 2026 and 6.0% in 2027. The sharp acceleration in 2027 is based on the possible reopening of the copper mine at Donoso and the start of large Canal-related investment projects that we have reported on previously. Donoso is in the legal planning phase, while th...

Blackout 20/4: what’s next?
UKRAINE · In Brief · 16 Jan 2026

Kyiv and other major Ukrainian cities such as Odesa, Kharkiv, and Dnipro are experiencing blackouts, with only short periods when life briefly returns to normal before the next airstrike. All of this is happening against the backdrop of prolonged freezing weather, with temperatures around -10 to ...

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