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The road to darkness
COLOMBIA · Report · 05 Nov 2025 · 3 responses

Witnessing U.S. President Donald Trump accuse President Gustavo Petro of being an “illegal drug trafficker,” and Petro retort that he should help depose Trump, we might wonder – as a former Colombian president did in the early 1960s, at a minister’s suggestion that Colombia declare war on the Uni...

Senator Contarato will chair the CPI on Organized Crime, Justice Gallotti of the TSE voted to revoke the mandate of the Governor of Rio, and the Central Bank should announce the updated benchmark interest rate (Selic)
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Nov 2025

Senator Fabiano Contarato (PT-ES) will chair the Parliamentary Committee of Inquiry (CPI) set up to investigate organized crime. He was elected by the committee members yesterday, November 4, during its first meeting. Senator Alessandro Vieira (MDB-SE) will serve as rapporteur. Yesterday, Justice...

Navigating an oil glut: Fiscal and rating risks for the Gulf—Slide presentation and webinar replay
GULF COUNTRIES · Presentation · 05 Nov 2025

What's next for the GCC in an environment of low oil prices but tight spreads? How will OPEC+ navigate market concerns about an oil supply glut? How are diversification efforts progressing? Can Gulf states keep their deficits and borrowing in check? Which ratings might change? While some politica...

The STF has scheduled the trial on whether to indict Congressman Eduardo Bolsonaro, Senator Calheiros will present his report on the income tax exemption bill, and the CPI on Organized Crime should be installed today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Nov 2025

The First Panel of the Supreme Federal Court (STF) has scheduled for November 14 the start of the virtual trial to decide whether to accept or reject the indictment filed by the Office of the Prosecutor General (PGR) against Federal Congressman Eduardo Bolsonaro (PL-SP) for his alleged actions su...

Macroeconomic and geopolitical developments, forecast update – Weekly report, November 3, 2025
ISRAEL · Forecast · 04 Nov 2025

Israel enters November in a fragile but stabilizing environment. While the ceasefire with Hamas remains largely intact, negotiations toward Phase II of the Gaza arrangement have stalled, leaving uncertainty in the near term over the Gaza front and future regional arrangements. Economic data f...

Economics: A sputtering economy and a complex public finance outlook as the monetary policy spread narrows
MEXICO · Report · 03 Nov 2025

Data released in October shows the economy continues to spiral downward under the weight of declining productive investment and private consumption. The same weakness is reflected in the labor market, with declining numbers of formal sector jobs being somewhat offset by more people finding inform...

The Rio police operation remobilizes the right and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Nov 2025

The COP 30 Leaders’ Summit will take place in Belém on Thursday and Friday. Senate President Davi Alcolumbre has scheduled for this Tuesday, November 4, the installation of the Parliamentary Committee of Inquiry (CPI) that will investigate organized crime in Brazil. The Senate may also vote on th...

Politics: PAN at the crossroads, seeking better fortunes with a relaunch and a new face, identity, and organizational style
MEXICO · Report · 03 Nov 2025

Mexico’s largest opposition political party — the PAN —appears to be realizing that it is in an existential crisis and needs a major shakeup, overhaul, and new identity. The evidence is overwhelming: party membership is down to 200,000, which contrasts with Morena’s campaign for 10 million new af...

Trade talks and fourth plenum end with a whimper
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 03 Nov 2025

Two important meetings—on China’s five-year plan and between Xi and Trump—have ended not with a bang but a whimper. Trump retrenched to pre-tariff trade agreements but there were no long-term structural changes or solutions to the underlying conflicts. Meanwhile, China’s Central Committee met for...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Nov 2025

TERMITES IN LULA’S WORKS FROM EUPHORIA TO HANGOVER – Just like termites, the truth is stubborn and eventually surfaces at the height of the party. Happily surfing the wave of Trump’s friendly gestures and a rise in popularity — despite still-high rejection — Lula’s “luck” once again became the m...

The last polls
CHILE · In Brief · 03 Nov 2025

It does not feel like electoral season in Chile. Historically, elections saw the country’s streets plastered (or littered) with political advertising. But the increasing domination of social media in politics has translated into much less money being spent on street signage. At the same time, man...

Three polls show a majority of Rio residents approve of the mega-operation against organized crime, the STF will review Bolsonaro’s appeals on Friday, and the Central Bank will decide on the benchmark interest rate
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Nov 2025

In addition to the AtlasIntel poll released last Friday, October 31, three institutes – Quaest, Datafolha, and Paraná – published polls measuring how residents of Rio de Janeiro (RJ) view last Tuesday’s large-scale operation against organized crime in the Alemão and Penha complexes. The STF will ...

Israel’s economic conditions in Q3 2025: after Iran, before the ceasefire
ISRAEL · In Brief · 03 Nov 2025

As data for August and September 2025 begin to accumulate, we now have a clearer statistical picture of Israel’s economic performance in the third quarter. The key question we seek to answer is how the Israeli economy responded to the end of the military operation against Iran and whether the rec...

Better than expected, worse than it should be
TURKEY · Report · 03 Nov 2025

Consumer prices increased by a somewhat lower than expected 2.6%, m/m, in October, with the annual CPI inflation rate easing slightly to 32.9%, from 33.3% in September. Producer prices rose by 1.6%, m/m, as 12-month PPI inflation edged up modestly to 27%, from 26.6% a month earlier. The declin...

Who knows? Gauging the risk of U.S. intervention in Venezuela
VENEZUELA · Report · 03 Nov 2025

In the United States, different political camps seem to be converging on one key point: that Maduro’s ouster is part of the broader fight against drug trafficking and could justify military intervention. Although the U.S. troop buildup in the Caribbean has not disrupted cohesion within the Ven...

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