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Stranger things
TURKEY · Report · 09 Nov 2025 · 2 responses

President Erdogan is marshalling his resources in the judiciary to open a new front in his showdown with CHP. The immunities of 12 CHP heavyweights, including chairman Ozer may be lifted. Meanwhile, shortly after the European Court of Human Rights ordered Turkey to release Selahaddin Demirtas, Ba...

GULF WEEKLY: OPEC+ pauses hikes for Q1, Saudi PMI surges, Microsoft boosts UAE AI investments, Qatar issued $4bn
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 07 Nov 2025

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC+ announced a small Dec hike followed by a 3-month pause; Brent dipped back to $63. * Aramco beat profit expectations and hiked its gas production target for 2030 by about 13%. * The Saudi PMI surged to 60.2, the seco...

Kazakhstan macro: The recent strengthening of the tenge might not hold for long
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 07 Nov 2025

Recent macroeconomic data from the Bureau of Economic Statistics, the Ministry of Finance, and the National Bank show that while the current economic situation appears stable and economic growth exceeds expectations, the economy could be on the verge of changes due to some lingering macroeconomic...

The STF begins the virtual trial of Bolsonaro’s appeals, Lula should sign into law the income tax exemption bill next week, and he should appoint Paulo Gonet for another two-year term as Prosecutor General
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Nov 2025

Today, the First Panel of the Supreme Federal Court (STF) begins the virtual trial of appeals filed by former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) and seven other defendants accused of attempting a coup d’état. If the appeals are rejected, Moraes may order the immediate start of the prison sentences. Ne...

2025 was lost, again, see you in 2026
TURKEY · Report · 07 Nov 2025

The CBRT released the fourth and final Inflation Report of the year and held its final briefing of the year. As expected, the Bank kept its medium-term (interim) targets for 2025, 2026 and 2027 unchanged at 24%, 16%, and 9%, respectively, as in the August report. Also as expected, the Bank revise...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Who stands to dominate the ballot box in Armenia’s 2026 showdown?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 07 Nov 2025

This year I have spent a considerable amount of time discussing and analyzing the political backdrop in Armenia, including because, with the political cycles over in Azerbaijan and Georgia, it is now Armenia's turn to hold parliamentary elections next Jun. However, in contrast to Georgia, where I...

Continued signs of recovery in manufacturing. Further rate cuts uncertain.
POLAND · Report · 07 Nov 2025

Incoming data show a rebound in the Polish industrial sector in 3Q2025, mainly driven by production of non-durable consumer goods, amid very weak external demand and trade within global value chains. However, capital goods output has been rising in recent months, suggesting a possible rebound in ...

Israel Governor signals conditions are ready for a rate cut, provided October CPI and Q3 growth remain moderate
ISRAEL · In Brief · 06 Nov 2025

Bank of Israel Governor Amir Yaron hinted at a possible interest-rate cut ahead of the bank’s November 24 decision. Speaking at a conference on Tuesday, he said the September CPI, which fell by 0.6%, was “a step in the right direction.” Yaron noted that the shekel’s appreciation and the expected ...

Foreign and institutional investors sold FX in Q3, supporting the shekel’s appreciation
ISRAEL · In Brief · 06 Nov 2025

The shekel continued to strengthen in the third quarter, appreciating by 2.0% against the U.S. dollar and 1.9% against the euro, following sharp gains of 9.3% and 1.5% in Q2, respectively. The appreciation reflected a decline in Israel’s risk premium and improved investor sentiment after Operatio...

Industry and retail sales all remained normal in September
HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Nov 2025

The preliminary Q3 GDP growth data was reported already a week ago (0% qoq, +0.6% yoy), but the September monthly industry and retail sales numbers are still something to be noticed, at least as a matter of regular housekeeping. Industrial output grew 1.3% mom and fell 1.7% yoy in volume terms, s...

The Senate concluded the vote on the income tax exemption bill, the House approved the bill that establishes a tax on streaming services, and Justice Moraes requested a review of the case on the Elderly Statute
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Nov 2025

The Senate yesterday concluded the vote on the bill that grants an income tax exemption for individuals earning up to R$5,000 per month. Since no changes were made to the version approved by the Lower House, the bill will proceed directly for presidential sanction. The Lower House completed the v...

One step closer
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Nov 2025

There was no surprise regarding the Copom’s decision to keep the Selic rate at its current level of 15% per year, nor were there major changes in the language of the statement that followed the meeting, despite some progress in two (perhaps three) of the dimensions previously emphasized by the Ce...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 06 Nov 2025

The FX market remains steady despite the latest sanctions. Investors anticipate no significant changes in FX flows until November 21, when all operations with the two newly sanctioned Russian oil majors must be finalized. Some impact is expected toward the year's end, as increased discounts on Ru...

The road to darkness
COLOMBIA · Report · 05 Nov 2025 · 3 responses

Witnessing U.S. President Donald Trump accuse President Gustavo Petro of being an “illegal drug trafficker,” and Petro retort that he should help depose Trump, we might wonder – as a former Colombian president did in the early 1960s, at a minister’s suggestion that Colombia declare war on the Uni...

Senator Contarato will chair the CPI on Organized Crime, Justice Gallotti of the TSE voted to revoke the mandate of the Governor of Rio, and the Central Bank should announce the updated benchmark interest rate (Selic)
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Nov 2025

Senator Fabiano Contarato (PT-ES) will chair the Parliamentary Committee of Inquiry (CPI) set up to investigate organized crime. He was elected by the committee members yesterday, November 4, during its first meeting. Senator Alessandro Vieira (MDB-SE) will serve as rapporteur. Yesterday, Justice...

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