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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Nov 7 -
Brazil Economics databank Nov 15
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Central America databank Oct 31
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Chile databank Oct 23
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Nov 6
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Dominican Republic databank Nov 20
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Ecuador databank Oct 23
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Gulf Countries databank Nov 22
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Hungary databank Nov 21
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India databank Oct 30
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Mexico databank Nov 15
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Panama databank Sep 11
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Peru databank Oct 15
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Philippines databank Nov 8
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Russia Economics databank Nov 13
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South Africa databank Nov 1
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Turkey databank Sep 18
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Ukraine databank Nov 12
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Venezuela databank Nov 5
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - LATIN AMERICA IN 2025: HOW WORRIED SHOULD WE BE?...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Economics: Economic and political regime change modifies the balance of risks in the medium-to-long term
MEXICO · Report · 21 Oct 2024
Amid a wave of fresh constitutional reforms, some already approved and others progressing at a fast clip, the arrival of the new president and Federal Congress marks a shift in the country's economic-political regime—a shift that defines a balance of risks and opportunities that are quite differe...
Not So Fast
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 21 Oct 2024
After robust growth early in the year, economic activity shows some signs of slowing down in high-frequency data, largely due, we believe, to changes in fiscal policy dynamics. The first half of the year was marked by a fast expansion of public spending, which has cooled off more recently. The la...
IMF Fifth Review: Reform Targets Grow More Demanding
UKRAINE · In Brief · 21 Oct 2024
On Friday, October 18, the IMF reported on the fifth review of the EFF arrangement for Ukraine and announced a $1.1 billion disbursement channeled to Ukraine's budget. The tone of the press release was very positive, highlighting that the authorities met all end-June quantitative performance crit...
How long can consumer savings last?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 21 Oct 2024
China is hoping a short-term stimulus package will revive the economy. The rumored size of a package keeps growing. Although a large stimulus package has not taken place, the impact of the slowing economy on ordinary citizens has been reduced due to the size of savings deposits in the banks and g...
Another slow week in Congress, the runoff of the municipal elections will be held on Sunday, and Senator Braga should present the work schedule for the Tax Reform regulation bill this week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Oct 2024
This will be another slow week in Congress due to the municipal elections. Next Sunday (October 27), voters in 52 cities with a population above 200,000 residents will hold the runoff of the municipal elections. Once the runoff concludes, the National Congress, which has been in an informal reces...
Politics: Governability risks on multiple fronts
MEXICO · Report · 21 Oct 2024
With Claudia Sheinbaum in office less than three weeks, analysts, as well as political, economic, and social actors, are raising questions on the challenges the new government faces in terms of guaranteeing governability. In this week’s edition of the Political Outlook we highlight 28 risks in th...
Inflation moderation reduces the likelihood of a rate hike
ISRAEL · Report · 21 Oct 2024
1. September’s low CPI print reduces the likelihood of a rate hike in the coming months. 2. The shekel appreciated sharply on Friday following the Sinwar assassination, but a ceasefire could be elusive. 3. Trade data point to both export and import expansion in Q324, but growth in Q424 wil...
Kind reminder: the MNB is likely to hold the base rate at tomorrow's rate-setting meeting
HUNGARY · In Brief · 21 Oct 2024
The Monetary Council is set to hold its monthly rate-setting meeting tomorrow. With EURHUF at 402, as we are writing this note, a rate cut is highly unlikely this time. This morning, Portfolio.hu published the results of its regular analyst poll. All twelve respondents expect that the Council wil...
Low inflation print reduces the likelihood of tightening in coming months
ISRAEL · In Brief · 20 Oct 2024
Geopolitics: The death of Sinwar, the Hamas leader, was greeted with some cautious optimism regarding a possible ceasefire. Israel continues its ground offensive in Northern Gaza and into Southern Lebanon. Missiles and drones from Hezbollah continue to be fired into Israel at a high intensity. ca...
U-Turn in politics, IMF reality check in economics
TURKEY · Report · 20 Oct 2024
In October, Turkish politics witnessed a startling change of course, as Messrs. Bahceli and Erdogan extended an olive branch to DEM, a party which represents the majority of the Kurdish constituency. DEM and its predecessors were for years treated as pariahs by the Republican Alliance. Ostensibly...
President Abinader to withdraw the Fiscal Modernization Bill from the National Congress
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 19 Oct 2024 · 3 responses
After facing strong criticism from various sectors of Dominican society, President Luis Abinader has announced that he will withdraw the Fiscal Modernization Bill from the National Congress. He stated that this decision was made because the legislative initiative lacked public support and did not...
Growth forecast revised down significantly
HUNGARY · Forecast · 18 Oct 2024
In this quarterly update, we are revising our GDP forecast downward by a significant amount, following similar recent moves by other forecasters but taking a somewhat more pessimistic view than most of the other forecasts we know (Table 1). We are doing so on account of the continued, and current...
GULF WEEKLY: Oil drops, Kuwait’s non-oil growth rises, Hamas's leader killed
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 18 Oct 2024
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent crude dipped as low as $72 on reduced concerns that Israel might strike Iranian oil facilities, and amidst indicators of weaker demand in China. * The first EU-GCC summit was held in Brussels, with participants inclu...
New Fiscal Social Responsibility Law is approved by the Cabinet and submitted to the Legislative Assembly
PANAMA · In Brief · 18 Oct 2024
On October 14, the Assembly received the proposal for a new fiscal law (LRSF in Spanish). This law is necessary to establish the deficit ceilings before enacting the 2025 budget (which we will comment on in an upcoming report). This new version of the LRSF includes three topics within the same bo...
Ukraine accuses North Korea of sending troops to Ukraine—North Korean-Russian relations in focus
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 18 Oct 2024
Over the past few weeks, Ukraine and its Western allies have alleged on numerous occasions at all levels that North Korea is sending combat troops to fight in Ukraine. While these claims have not been substantiated, Russian and North Korean relations have been deepening ever since the start of th...