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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Jul 25 -
Brazil Economics databank Aug 18
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Central America databank Jul 31
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Chile databank Jul 17
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Aug 1
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Ecuador databank Jul 22
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Gulf Countries databank Aug 15
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Hungary databank Aug 19
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India databank Jun 26
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Mexico databank Jul 1
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Panama databank Jul 17
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Peru databank Aug 14
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Philippines databank Aug 6
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Poland databank Jul 16
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Russia Economics databank Aug 14
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South Africa databank Jul 11
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Turkey databank Aug 11
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Ukraine databank Aug 15
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Venezuela databank Jul 7
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Low growth persists; monetary policy responds
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Forecast · 17 Jul 2025
The most recent data confirms that low growth is consolidating for 2025. The Monthly Indicator of Economic Activity (IMAE) for May showed y/y growth of 3.1%, and cumulative growth for January–May stood at 2.6%. Lower rates can be observed across most sectors, and are particularly noticeable in co...
Justice Moraes reinstated the decree that raised the IOF tax rate on credit operations, Lula vetoed the bill that would have increased the number of congressmen, and Lula will address Trump’s tariff hike tonight
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Jul 2025
Yesterday, Justice Alexandre de Moraes reinstated the decree that raised the IOF tax rate on credit operations. After a conciliation hearing failed to reach consensus, he ruled that the only valid portion of the legislative decree is the one that suspends the IOF tax on “risco sacado” (receivable...
Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 17 Jul 2025
The rally on the OFZ market continued, and the yield curve approached 14% in its long end (versus 15% two or three weeks ago). The CBR published its regular survey on the current economic trends, which indicated that current inflation “in annualised terms moved close to 4%”. This statement suppor...
Israel's June CPI surprised to the upside: +0.3% m/m, 3.3% y/y - lowering chances of a near-term rate cut
ISRAEL · In Brief · 17 Jul 2025
The June CPI surprised on the upside, rising by 0.3% month-on-month at the upper end of market expectations—and pushing annual inflation up to 3.3%, from 3.1% in May. Food and housing remained the main drivers of the increase, each rising by 0.7% and 0.6%, respectively. Core services also increas...
"New" cabinet or musical chairs reshuffle?
UKRAINE · In Brief · 17 Jul 2025
The Ukrainian leadership has launched a Cabinet reshuffle. The possible replacement of former Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal had been discussed for several years, but he remained too convenient for President Volodymyr Zelensky—flexible and without any personal agenda—making him easy to keep in plac...
The STF conciliation meeting ended without agreement, the House approved the PEC on court-ordered payments yesterday, and today the Special Committee on income tax may vote on Deputy Lira’s report
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Jul 2025
The conciliation meeting between the Executive and Legislative branches, mediated by Supreme Federal Court (STF) Justice Alexandre de Moraes, ended without agreement. Yesterday, the Lower House concluded the vote on the Constitutional Amendment Proposal (PEC) regarding court-ordered government pa...
(Kurdish) Peace Process: A little bit of Peace, a lot of Process
TURKEY · In Brief · 15 Jul 2025
Most visitors come back from Bodrum with fun memories: Sun-kissed pristine beaches, endless rave parties and excessive food and alcohol consumption. Your Truly came back with food poisoning, thus skipping his contribution to our Weekly Tracker. This Market Brief is to atone for his sins, where he...
Magín Díaz appointed Minister of Finance following Jochy Vicente's resignation
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 15 Jul 2025 · 1 response
Jochy Vicente has resigned as Minister of Finance of the Dominican Republic, and economist Magín Díaz has been appointed as his successor. Vicente had served in the role since August 2020, at the start of President Luis Abinader's first term. Magín Díaz has dedicated his professional career to fi...
We revise down exchange rate and inflation forecasts
VENEZUELA · Report · 15 Jul 2025
We revise down our exchange rate and inflation forecasts for two main reasons: the reduction in cash transfers under the Patria system following the elimination of some benefits starting in June 2025, and our assumption that the government will seek to contain inflationary pressures by keeping mo...
Steady as she goes
CHILE · Report · 15 Jul 2025
Despite the headline boost in May’s IMACEC, the underlying momentum remains soft. The y/y figures will likely stay high into June, due to favorable base effects. IMACEC’s consumption-related sectors and retail sales point to softening consumption dynamics. This is echoed in commerce sentiment. Wi...
Is this President Boluarte’s last dance? Economy grew sluggishly in Q2; PEN/USD appreciation justifies one 25 bp rate cut in the next nine months
PERU · Report · 15 Jul 2025
In this report we offer an update on Peru’s political, economic and market developments. We first discuss politics and the likelihood of President Dina Boluarte’s facing a successful impeachment before her term ends on July 28th, 2026. Although we continue to ascribe a 45% probability to Boluarte...
Lula published a decree regulating the Reciprocity Law, the STF will hold a conciliation meeting on the IOF issue, and the Joint Committee on MP 1,303 should be installed today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Jul 2025
A decree from President Lula was published today in the Federal Official Gazette regulating the Reciprocity Law. The decree establishes the Interministerial Committee on Economic and Trade Negotiations and Countermeasures. The committee is meeting with representatives from the affected trade sect...
The government regains the narrative and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Jul 2025
This is the final week of legislative activity in Congress before the recess begins on July 18. The House may vote on proposals related to court-ordered government payments (precatórios) and environmental licensing. The Supreme Federal Court (STF) will hold a conciliation meeting between the Exec...
The dark side of the moon
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 14 Jul 2025
The surprising imposition of 50% tariffs on Brazilian exports to the US is expected to have negative effects on economic activity, particularly on the manufacturing sector. The US absorbs 12% of Brazilian exports, accounting for just under 2% of GDP, but almost 18% of manufactured exports, equiva...
Israel’s post-war economic outlook: uncertainty eased, risks remain
ISRAEL · Report · 14 Jul 2025
The 12-day war between Israel and Iran ended with significant damage to Iran’s nuclear infrastructure and missile capabilities without escalating into a broader regional conflict. For Israel, the outcome represents a meaningful improvement in its geopolitical standing and a substantial reduction ...