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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

April CPI out tomorrow: prepare for the headline rate deeply below 4%
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 May 2025 · 1 response

The headline rate went up to 5.6% yoy in February, from where it came down to 4.7% yoy in March. Against that, a further drop to below 4% in April may look extraordinary. But circumstances are extraordinary, too. For one thing, fuel prices (7.3% of the CPI basket) dropped substantially again in A...

Thoughts on the trade talks (a win-win?) and China's stimulus
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 07 May 2025

China and the U.S. plan to hold two days of trade talks in Switzerland starting May 10 for the first time since the beginning of Trump’s second administration. The Financial Times noted that “The meeting will be the first high-level interaction between the two sides since Vice President Han Zheng...

Kazakhstan macro: The tenge gradually weakens on lower oil, but not enough
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 07 May 2025

In recent days, the Kazakh authorities published macroeconomic statistics that shed additional light on the country’s situation (which looks not bad at all) and possible challenges ahead. Despite accelerated economic growth in 1Q25, it looks as though tax collection wasn't sufficient, not only in...

The Special Committee on income tax reform was installed, the Lower House approved an increase in the number of representatives and prepares to vote on the new PPP framework, and the Senate to vote on a re-election ban for executive posts
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 May 2025

Yesterday, the Special Committee tasked with analyzing the bill on the income tax was installed. The work plan for discussing the income tax reform (PL 1087/25) foresees that the report will be submitted by June 27. The rapporteur, Deputy Arthur Lira (PP-AL), expects the text to be voted on in th...

US, EU trade policy measures work against economic growth in Hungary
HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 May 2025

Well, this looks like a series of unfavourable news now. Here is a list of what we mean: 1. A few days ago, Mr. Trump's 25% tariffs on the imports of car components took effect, following a similar measure on the imports of complete cars, implemented one month earlier. Naturally, these moves affe...

Mexico Macro Monitor: Gross Fixed Investment falls in February for sixth consecutive month
MEXICO · In Brief · 06 May 2025

Gross Fixed Investment in February: Sixth consecutive annual decline due to sharp contraction in construction investment and recent drop in M&E Gross fixed investment (GFI) contracted by -6.0% YoY in February, continuing the negative trend that began in the second half of the previous year and ma...

Mexico Macro Monitor: Private consumption in February posts a third consecutive annual decline
MEXICO · In Brief · 06 May 2025

Private consumption through February: Third consecutive annual decline driven by sharp contraction in imported goods consumption, alongside persistent weakness in spending on domestic goods. Private consumption fell by -0.7% YoY in February 2025, marking the third consecutive decline after a slow...

The opposition will attempt to file a request for a Joint CPI on the payroll loan fraud, the Lower House installs a committee to review the income tax bill, and the vote on new concessions and the PPP framework is expected
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 May 2025

There are already enough signatures to create a Joint Parliamentary Commission of Inquiry (CPMI) to investigate the fraud involving payroll loans for INSS retirees and pensioners. The opposition will attempt to file the request today, May 6. The installation of the Special Committee to analyze th...

Disinflation and weak growth, revisions of fiscal plans, and volatility in politics
POLAND · Report · 06 May 2025

Inflation in Poland shows signs of easing, and expectations of interest rate cuts are high. Economic recovery remains sluggish, with weak retail sales, manufacturing output, and most confidence indicators. The government has adjusted fiscal plans due to lower tax revenues, increasing the deficit ...

Economics: Trouble ahead despite some marginal upticks in the 1Q preliminary GDP report
MEXICO · Report · 05 May 2025

While last week’s preliminary GDP report for the first quarter may have marginally surpassed some expectations, its scant improvement appears to mask deeper economic problems. Robust numbers for January allowed the agricultural sector to deliver most of the economic growth last quarter, as indust...

Politics: Telecommunications reform poses the risk of an economic and political step backward
MEXICO · Report · 05 May 2025

A new telecommunications bill has sparked an uproar over the issue of censorship and freedom of expression in relation to the media. The proposed legislation replaces the Telecommunications Law approved in 2013 during Enrique Peña Nieto’s administration. While many of Peña Nieto’s policies have s...

Saudi Q1 fiscal - no sign of spending cuts and a record increase in debt
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 05 May 2025

The Ministry of Finance is getting timelier with its fiscal releases, publishing Q1 today, just five weeks after the quarter end and a week before Aramco's earnings. I will include some more analysis in the weekly report, but a few quick takeaways: The decline in oil revenue was as expected, give...

April inflation broadly as expected
TURKEY · Report · 05 May 2025

Monthly CPI inflation came in at 3%, m/m, in April, slightly below consensus forecasts of around 3.2%, with the 12-month rate easing slightly further to just under 38% (37.9%), from just over (38.1%) in March. Domestic producer prices (D-PPI) rose by 2.8%, m/m, in the month, which led to a full p...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 05 May 2025

OVERVIEW Lula's plans face a hostile reality The Lula administration has found its helmsman in marketing strategist-turned-minister Sidônio Palmeira, making it clear that everything will be done to ensure the PT remains in power beyond 2027. This plan, however, will face serious challenges,...

Party realignments target the 2026 elections and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 May 2025

Brasília is expected to see more activity this week, following last week's holidays. In the Lower House, a Special Committee will be installed to analyze the personal income tax bill. In the Senate, discussions begin on the Management Committee (a part of Tax Reform regulation). Former President ...

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