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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Politics: Ties between Morena and organized crime place Sheinbaum between a rock and a hard place
MEXICO · Report · 21 Jul 2025

The thorny problem of ties between Morena governors and other public officials and organized crime, far from going away, is intensifying. These ties include the creation of large-scale criminal operations such as fuel theft, known as “huachicol”; the exchange of territorial control for electoral ...

A new phase in the 2026 presidential race and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Jul 2025

Meetings continue between the government and business leaders to discuss the tariffs imposed by the United States on Brazilian imports. Compensation payments to INSS retirees and pensioners who were victims of fraud are set to begin next week. The economic team will also release its bimonthly rev...

Mr. Trump has launched a new threat to Hungary’s economic growth
HUNGARY · Forecast · 21 Jul 2025

External conditions have not made macro forecasting any easier over the past three months. We see two key sources of high volatility and uncertainty that complicate the life of the macro analyst. One of them is geopolitical news, as demonstrated by the most recent violent episode between Israel, ...

On the other hand...
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 21 Jul 2025

Economic activity shows signs of slowing down in the second quarter, which would suggest a narrowing of the output gap. However factor utilization is moving in the opposite direction: unemployment is declining and capacity utilization on the rise. One possible explanation for this divergence ...

Brighter perspectives ahead
ECUADOR · Forecast · 21 Jul 2025

The Q1 2025 economic performance brings cautious hope for the future. GDP grew 3.4% y/y and 3.5% q/q. All industries with the exception of education, health and communications registered positive changes in the quarter, as opposed to Q1 and Q4 2024. Household consumption jumped from negative 3.8%...

Kazakhstan macro: economy accelerates amid delayed budget spending
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 21 Jul 2025 · 1 response

Last week, the Bureau of National Statistics reported that economic growth continued to accelerate on a year-over-year basis as the short-term indicator (a monthly print of economic activity) grew by 9.0% in 1H25. In 5M25, it was up by 8.6% y-o-y, and in January alone, it grew by 4.5% only. This ...

Is Xi Jinping losing power?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 21 Jul 2025

There’s been a lot of recent chatter about a possible decline in Xi Jinping’s power and what this means for the leadership of China. The arguments are divided: some analysts are convinced Xi’s been unofficially demoted, while others believe we are reading the tea leaves incorrectly. I tend to thi...

Opposition lawmakers want to impose term limits for STF justices, VP Alckmin is leading the response to the tariff hike, and the government is expected to start reimbursing INSS retirees following the unsolicited deductions
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Jul 2025

Opposition lawmakers continue to mobilize following a decision by Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes imposing restrictions on the movement of former President Jair Bolsonaro. One of their main goals is to build momentum around constitutional amendments limiting single-justice decisions and...

No adjustment in the first half of 2025
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 21 Jul 2025

Special points to highlight in this issue: - China’s second quarter GDP surprised modestly on the upside, but headline GDP growth of 5.3% for the first half of 2025 masks continued weakness in domestic demand, falling industrial profits, rising debt, and persistent deflationary pressures....

Politics tumultuous, econ on autopilot
TURKEY · Report · 20 Jul 2025

The politics author laments that this is the most difficult period in his 35 years of covering Turkey. Everything he writes below is subject to unusually large margins of error. Nevertheless, he makes bold predictions, believing that shedding some light into the future is better than saying “it a...

GULF WEEKLY: Neom reviews The Line, Qatar Q2 deficit, Kuwait exits 2-year recession, Bahrain signs $17bn in US deals
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 18 Jul 2025 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Saudi oil production rose by 0.6m b/d in June, but only a third of this was supplied to the market. * Saudi Arabia’s local T-sukuk could get a 5.5% weight in the JPM GBI-EM index. * Neom may cut a fifth of its workforce a...

Israel’s political crisis and its fiscal implications for 2025–2026
ISRAEL · In Brief · 18 Jul 2025

Prime Minister Netanyahu’s government lost its parliamentary majority this week, after the two ultra-Orthodox parties—Shas and United Torah Judaism—announced their resignation from the government. The move came after the coalition failed to submit a draft law that would exempt most ultra-Orthodox...

Congress recesses today and should return the week of August 4, Lula gave a nationally broadcast speech last night addressing Trump’s tariffs, and a recent poll shows the tariff episode has had a positive impact on Lula
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Jul 2025

Today marks the start of the National Congress’s recess. Legislative activities will resume during the week of August 4. Yesterday, President Lula delivered a nationally televised and broadcast speech addressing the U.S. government's decision to impose a 50% tariff on Brazilian exports. He said t...

Special report: Moscow-Baku diplomatic row in perspective—destabilization of the South Caucasus?
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 18 Jul 2025

- Russian police launched raids on the Azerbaijani diaspora in Russia, citing its involvement in organized crime. - Azerbaijan retaliated by arresting and beating Russian nationals and closing Russian media outlets. - Aliyev maintains a stable equilibrium in his country's relatio...

Low growth persists; monetary policy responds
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Forecast · 17 Jul 2025

The most recent data confirms that low growth is consolidating for 2025. The Monthly Indicator of Economic Activity (IMAE) for May showed y/y growth of 3.1%, and cumulative growth for January–May stood at 2.6%. Lower rates can be observed across most sectors, and are particularly noticeable in co...

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