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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Reform Conflict Shifts to the States
MEXICO · Report · 25 Jun 2014

Executive Summary New complications have emerged in Mexico’s efforts to adopt the secondary laws needed to implement constitutional reforms affecting the energy and telecommunications sectors. The PAN cited two issues last week as it walked out of talks aimed at reaching consensus proposals on pr...

Signs of an Inefficient Fiscal Policy
MEXICO · Report · 25 Jun 2014

Executive Summary Last week’s report on aggregate supply and demand data for the first quarter of 2014 revealed a considerable reduction (-8.5%) in public gross fixed capital formation that stands in sharp contrast to the 33.7% increase registered in public sector budgeted physical investment dur...

What Does A “Good” Chinese Transition Look Like?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 24 Jun 2014

Executive Summary Any plausible definition of an orderly Chinese rebalancing during President Xi Jinping’s administration must include much lower GDP growth for many years. How quickly Beijing is able to rein in credit growth is the main variable determining whether or not the adjustment will be ...

Winning the War is the Only Way Out
UKRAINE · Forecast · 24 Jun 2014

Executive Summary Ukraine’s future now depends upon a rapid resolution to the military conflict with Russia.The situation is still very dicey, but at least three developments suggest Ukraine is well positioned to win.First, the separatists continue to lose support in the region, due to their blat...

June MPC: A Minor Surprise
TURKEY · Report · 24 Jun 2014

The Monetary Policy Committee cut its key interest rate, the weekly repo rate, by a higher than expected 75 bps (versus consensus of a 50 bps cut) down to 8.75%, but left the O/N corridor intact at 8%-12% (see chart). While the cut is more aggressive (25 bps more) than we had envisaged, the fact ...

Is Petrocaribe Financing in Jeopardy?
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 24 Jun 2014

Executive Summary Increasing political and economic turmoil in Venezuela is raising concern over the Dominican Republic’s vulnerability to a fall in financing for Venezuelan oil purchases. Venezuela sells the DR oil and derivatives through its Petrocaribe program, on highly concessional terms, su...

Inflation: No Change in the Trajectory
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 23 Jun 2014

The IPCA-15 for June rose 0.47%, virtually the same as the May IPCA (0.46%). It was also higher than the consensus forecast, which was for further deceleration. Inflation over the past 12 months is now 6.41% and it’s just a question of time before it creeps above the upper limit of the target int...

Growing Reliance on Petrocaribe for Financing
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 23 Jun 2014

Evidence collected for this report suggests that the Dominican Republic is vulnerable to significant changes in the financial conditions in which Venezuela sales oil and derivates through the Petrocaribe program. Together with the United States, Venezuela is the largest oil provider to the DR (ar...

Political Insights: Week of June 23
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Jun 2014

This will be a crucial week for the October elections, as several party conventions are scheduled for the coming days. The deadline for parties to determine candidates and coalitions is June 30. The PSB formalizes the presidential candidacy of Eduardo Campos this Saturday, June 28. Government Eva...

A Hole in the Pocket
CHILE · Report · 23 Jun 2014

Executive Summary It continues to be chilly in Chile. Growth is increasingly meager and there are no signs of a prompt recovery. To the fall in investment we now can add a deceleration of consumption. Apparently investment has hit bottom, but there are clear signs that consumption is still dec...

What To Expect in the Post-Giordani Era
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 22 Jun 2014

Jorge Giordani’s departure was a decision made by the powers that be. The letter he published in the chavista website Aporrea [1] was the means he chose to expose the discomfort and the ins and outs of the government’s decision making process. These events strengthen Nicolás Maduro and the reform...

Weekly Tracker: June 22-28
TURKEY · Report · 22 Jun 2014

Executive Summary HDP and AKP should reveal their respective candidates for the presidential race this week.A rebellion in CHP against the nomination of Mr. Ekmeleddin İhsanoglu died down quickly, meaning there will be only three contestants.It is too early to comment on CHP-MHP candidate Ihsanog...

Bonds Policy will Ease Debt Risk
CHINA · Report · 20 Jun 2014

Executive Summary Fixed asset investment growth continues to decline, rising 17% in real terms in May, while industrial output growth dipped 1 p.p. y/y from 2013, to 8.8%. Yet the general trend is relatively stable this year. The low new project investment growth rate of 12.5% sheds light on t...

Brazil Presidential Election
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Jun 2014

CNI/Ibope: Dilma leads; candidate rejection increases Government Evaluation On Thursday, June 19, a CNI/Ibope poll on the presidential succession and evaluation of the Dilma Rousseff administration, conducted June 13-15, was released.Compared to the June 4-7 poll (the Ibope poll contracted by the...

Down with the Monarchy
COLOMBIA · Report · 20 Jun 2014

Executive SummaryThough he will remain a powerful force in forthcoming regional elections, and carry the banner of the opposition in an eventual referendum on a peace agreement, for Alvaro Uribe Santos’ reelection signals the beginning of the end of a political era. A second important message fro...

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