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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Buying Power Up, but Sales Flat
MEXICO · Report · 08 Jul 2014

Executive Summary During the first six months of 2014 we have witnessed a recovery in the main determinants of private consumption, but so far it has failed to help accelerate growth in sales. The flow of workers actively paying into the social security system through the first five months of 201...

Domestic Politics Are Back
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 08 Jul 2014

As the September 2014 local elections for numerous Russian federal entities draw nearer, incumbent elites are utilizing all the instruments they have to prevent the competition from even registering for the election. The Presidential Administration would prefer that the governors win in a fair co...

Can Private Investment be Rekindled?
PERU · Forecast · 07 Jul 2014

Executive Summary We believe GDP will recover mildly in H2, driven by recovery in mining production, and a slight improvement in investment growth. But it’s hard to envisage a major improvement this year, though the government’s new measures for cutting red tape, and other impediments to investme...

Decline of Confidence in Industry Points to Further Deceleration of Growth
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 07 Jul 2014

The dip of 0.6% in industrial production in May is one more factor that indicates mediocre GDP growth in 2014. This result leaves a negative carry over of 1.2% to the second quarter, meaning the second-quarter figures will probably show further contraction of industrial output (which has been fal...

Political Insights: Week of July 7
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Jul 2014

This week is expected to be relatively quiet from the point of view of politics.On Tuesday, activity in Congress will be reduced as the Brazilian National Team faces Germany in the quarterfinals of the World Cup.The House may vote on MP 641, which deals with the commercialization of electric ener...

Muddle-Through Forever?
TURKEY · Forecast · 06 Jul 2014

Executive Summary Thanks to the ongoing support from top central banks, markets have been making the most out of Turkey’s cyclical adjustment story. Since the January troughs, bonds rallied by 300 bps while the lira appreciated by some 10% against the basket; markets also held up reasonably well,...

Default or Not Default
ARGENTINA · Forecast · 06 Jul 2014

Executive Summary This report presents two scenarios: a first scenario in which an agreement with the holdouts is reached avoiding a new default; and a worst-case scenario without agreement and default. Needless to say, in the default scenario we expect macroeconomic instability to increase signi...

Terrorists left Sloviansk, activists report
UKRAINE · In Brief · 05 Jul 2014

Activists report that separatists left Sloviansk, the town which was the strongest point of resistance at the region. Terrorists made the step after Sloviansk was totally taken into circle by Ukrainian army. If this information is true, it is a very good news witnessing substantial progress in mi...

Brazil Presidential Election
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Jul 2014

Datafolha: World Cup Improves the Mood of Voters, but Dilma Still Faces Challenges The Datafolha Institute released a new poll yesterday (7/3), conducted on July 1-2, which shows increased intended votes for President Dilma Rousseff (PT).Compared to the June poll, Dilma gained 4 percentage points...

June Inflation: Food Prices Disappoint
TURKEY · Report · 03 Jul 2014

June (CPI) inflation came in at a higher than expected 0.3%, compared with the consensus forecast of a flat reading and our more optimistic forecast of a slight drop in the monthly rate. Inflation still eased, i.e. it has indeed peaked, but less so than expected, to 9.2% from 9.7% in May. PPI inf...

Costa Rica: Fear of Floating
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 03 Jul 2014

Executive SummaryThe Central Bank is changing its way of intervening in the FX market. Though it has not modified the parameters of its band, the new administration has embarked upon a more active intervention policy, keeping the exchange rate below 560 colones per dollar. The Bank is also changi...

The Exchange Rate as an Instrument to Control Inflation
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Jul 2014

Executive Summary The Central Bank has been using interventions in the future foreign exchange market as an instrument to control inflation. With the ongoing deceleration of economic growth while inflation hovers near the top of the target interval, Brazil is experiencing a form of stagflation...

June inflation worse than expected
TURKEY · In Brief · 03 Jul 2014

Today's June inflation print disappointed, coming in at 0.3% worse than the consensus expectation of a flat reading -- and our somewhat more optimistic forecast of a slightly negative reading. But the culprit, as far as our forecast is concerned, is food prices: we expected, in line with seasonal...

Glimmers of Recovery, Amid Public Distrust
MEXICO · Report · 02 Jul 2014

Executive Summary Recent economic news was mixed, and in some cases surprising. One of the most encouraging reports was the April GDP proxy, which showed an unexpected 1.2% m/m activity increase, and a rise of 2.9% from April 2013. This latter result was the most positive in 16 months. We expect ...

GDP Growth in Q1
COLOMBIA · Report · 02 Jul 2014

The Colombian economy is off to a good start this year as GDP expanded by 6.4% in Q1 (Graph 1), the highest growth rate since 2011. Most analysts – ourselves included – have had to revise their forecasts upwards. The main driver of growth was construction, contributing 1.5 pp to total GDP growth....

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