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Weekly Tracker: June 15-21
TURKEY · Report · 15 Jun 2014

Executive Summary The sudden emergence of the ISIS as a major and probably permanent regional actor creates too many non-linearities in politics, economy and markets to be untangled at once.We initiate our analysis with a cautiously pessimistic short-term scenario. ISIS will keep Mosul, but the c...

Ukraine to sue Russia on gas issue: Cabinet ordered to prepare for ‘gas war’
UKRAINE · In Brief · 13 Jun 2014

Arseniy Yatsenyuk, prime-minister of Ukraine, ordered the Cabinet to get prepared for gas supplies' cutoff starting Monday, he wrote on his Facebook page today. The authorities finally start a trial with Gazprom at the Stockholm Arbitration Court over the gas contract. It is for the first time in...

Fiscal Policy is Becoming the Critical Factor
HUNGARY · Report · 12 Jun 2014

Executive Summary The new government cabinet was sworn in in early June, but it has brought about little change in policy content if any. The new cabinet has failed to present a program and, breaking with traditions, has said that it does not even intend to publish one. So as PM Orbán said before...

“Voto-finish”?
COLOMBIA · Report · 12 Jun 2014

The presidential race in Colombia is so close that the most frequent adjective used to describe it is “voto-finish.” There are polls supporting a likely win for either of the two candidates. The crucial issues since the first round have been:1.Support from losing first-round candidates to the rem...

ISIS update: When tail-risk becomes clear and present danger
TURKEY · In Brief · 11 Jun 2014

The ISIS Blitzkrieg in Iraq swept army and police forces aside rapidly, adding the oil town Beiji and Saddam’s birthplace of Tikrit to the list of terror organization’s conquests. Total havoc reigns in the ISIS-affected areas, with half a million Iraqis reported to be on the run. Much of what hea...

peace talks with ELN might be essential to decide next Sunday's results
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 11 Jun 2014

Yesterday, through a press release, the Government and the National Liberation Army (ELN, for its acronym in Spanish) announced that joint peace talks have formally started, after an exploratory phase that started last year (http://wsp.presidencia.gov.co/Prensa/2014/Junio/Pa...). The ELN was crea...

Fiscal Policy is Becoming the Critical Factor
HUNGARY · Report · 11 Jun 2014

Executive Summary The new government cabinet was sworn in in early June, but it has brought about little change in policy content if any. The new cabinet has failed to present a program and, breaking with traditions, has said that it does not even intend to publish one. So as PM Orbán said before...

Brazil Presidential Election
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Jun 2014

Ibope: Dilma down, opponents up Yesterday, June 10, the Ibope Institute released a new presidential voting intention and government evaluation poll.The poll was contracted by the Union of Aldermen of the State of São Paulo and conducted on June 4-7.The poll presented some interesting new facts: 1...

The First Few Weeks Of The Modi Administration
INDIA · Report · 11 Jun 2014

Executive Summary The new BJP government has done better than expected in some respects and worse in others. It is now possible to start understanding how this new arrangement will work. Cabinet Formation Expectations were sky-high about the Modi administration doing better on cabinet formation. ...

New threats to stability: ISIS and PKK
TURKEY · In Brief · 10 Jun 2014

I’m shocked beyond belief! 1.500 ISIS (Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, or Levant) militants took control of Iraq’s second largest city Mosul within a day, and now there are unconfirmed reports that the biggest Turkmeni city, Tuzhourmatu, has also fallen under their control. In Turkey, the shooti...

Rodolfo Marco Torres replaces Jorge Giordani on the BCV board
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 10 Jun 2014

Today, 10 June 2014, the Official Gazette reports the appointment of Rodolfo Marco Torres, minister of Finance, as member of the board of the BCV as member of the Cabinet. Marco Torres replaces Jorge Giordani, who was a member of the board throughout his tenure as minister of Planning. (According...

Cyclical Gains, Structural Pains
TURKEY · Report · 10 Jun 2014

Today’s Q1 growth data surprised slightly on the upside, coming in at 4.3%, y/y versus expectations of around 4%, us included. The quarterly growth rate (seasonally- and working day-adjusted) was puzzlingly strong, at 1.7% (corresponding to an annualized rate of over 7%), but we take these quarte...

PRD: More than a Leader at Stake
MEXICO · Report · 10 Jun 2014

Executive Summary Leadership elections have historically been among the most difficult hurdles to manage for the Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) and have often been a huge embarrassment for the organization. It is as yet unclear whether this year’s contest will produce similar controvers...

Six-point Growth & Productivity Plan
MEXICO · Report · 10 Jun 2014

Executive Summary Without a doubt the most surprising economic news out of Mexico last week was Banco de México’s announcement that it was lowering its overnight interbank lending rate by 50 basis points to a new record low of 3.0%. It was a move that caught financial markets and analysts entirel...

Ex-mediamagnat appointed Head of President Office
UKRAINE · In Brief · 10 Jun 2014

Boris Lozhkin, ex-owner of UMH media group, was appointed Head of President Office today. In fact impression about this first personnel decision of Poroshenko is quite mixed. Boris Lozhkin is a successful businessman who made his fortune by creating best journals and magazines at the country. And...

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