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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Nov 7
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Brazil Economics databank Nov 15
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Central America databank Nov 27
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Chile databank Dec 3
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Nov 6
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Dominican Republic databank Nov 20
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Ecuador databank Nov 29
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Gulf Countries databank Dec 6
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Hungary databank Nov 21
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India databank Nov 26
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Mexico databank Nov 15
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Panama databank Sep 11
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Peru databank Dec 9
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Philippines databank Dec 9
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Russia Economics databank Nov 13
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South Africa databank Dec 4
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Turkey databank Sep 18
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Ukraine databank Nov 12
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Venezuela databank Dec 5
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Lots of Talk, Little Action
VENEZUELA · Report · 20 Sep 2013
Executive Summary The government sorely needs to adopt credible and sustainable policies to stabilize exchange rates, prices, and expectations. An immediate priority is to patch up the exchange rate regime. The administration is planning to set up a new foreign exchange mechanism to run alongside...
PSB Exits The Allied Base
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Sep 2013
The Brazilian Socialist Party (PSB) announced on September 18 that it is delivering all posts it occupied in the Dilma Rousseff (PT) administration. The PSB occupied the Ministry of National Integration, the Secretariat of Ports, three directorships in the Development Company for the São Francisc...
The Benchmark Interest Rate Remains Unchanged
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 19 Sep 2013
Today’s decision by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) continues a period of no change in the benchmark interest rate. Cognizant of the upside nature of inflationary risks and the underlying hesitant economic recovery in South Africa, the MPC kept the rep...
RBI Announcement on 20th is Unusually Important
INDIA · In Brief · 18 Sep 2013
It will be the first policy statement by Raghuram Rajan, the new RBI Governor. The date was deftly chosen to give him a little more time, and to take place after the FOMC announcement.RBI monetary policy statements are like nothing you see with central banks elsewhere in the world. They are wordy...
Green Light for the ITT
ECUADOR · In Brief · 18 Sep 2013
The Commission of Bio-Diversity of the National Assembly approved last night the request from President Correa to declare the ITT oil camp of economic priority. This approval virtually gives the government green light to exploit the oil camps of Tambococha, Tiputini and Ishpingo located in the Y...
Regressive Pitfalls of Tax Reform
MEXICO · Report · 18 Sep 2013
Executive Summary The government of President Enrique Peña Nieto unveiled its budget proposals for 2014 along with closely related pieces of legislation that imply major changes to tax and fiscal policy while greatly expanding social security coverage. The stated purpose of such a reform would be...
Clearing Another Hurdle
MEXICO · Report · 18 Sep 2013
Executive Summary In the run-up to the official Mexican Independence Day Celebrations, which traditionally center on Mexico City’s main square, the government reached an agreement with the main organization of teachers to dismantle the protest encampment they have maintained for many weeks in the...
Above Target Headline Inflation
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 18 Sep 2013
In August 2013, the headline inflation rate recorded 6.4 per cent year-on-year i.e. a 0.1 percentage point increase compared to the previous month’s print. This outcome is consistent with the South African Reserve Bank (SARB)’s expectation of a temporary breach of its 6 per cent inflation targeti...
The MPC Does the Expected, but Chooses Not to Tinker with F/X Ratios
TURKEY · In Brief · 17 Sep 2013
As expected, the MPC kept all rates unchanged today, while its assessment of the economy (e.g., mild recovery in domestic demand, a contained CAD thanks to current policy framework) was also broadly unchanged. The Bank chose not to alter the F/X ratios (that would help to transfer some of its gr...
An uneventful MPC, as expected
TURKEY · Report · 17 Sep 2013
As expected, the MPC kept all rates unchanged today (see graph), while its assessment of the economy (e.g., mild recovery in domestic demand, a contained CAD thanks to current policy framework) was also broadly unchanged. The Bank chose not to alter the F/X ratios (that would help to transfer som...
Preliminary Analysis: Turkish Air force Shoots Down Syrian Chopper
TURKEY · In Brief · 16 Sep 2013
According to deputy PM Bulent Arinc, later confirmed by the HQ of Chiefs of Military Staff, a Syrian military chopper was shot down ”inside the Turkish airspace” by two Turkish Air Force F16s. The incident is new, with no announcement from Damascus as I write these lines; hence this is only a pr...
Political Insights
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Sep 2013
An intense week of political negotiation ahead: The National Congress analyzes President Dilma’s vetoes, with the government’s effort focused on sustaining the veto on the end of the 10% fine on the FGTS in case of unfair dismissal. The STF decides on the possibility of a new trial for 12 of the ...
Thanks, Mr. President
PERU · Report · 16 Sep 2013
Executive Summary President Ollanta Humala’s announcement that “the crisis has arrived” depressed confidence in Peru—according to a recent poll, 61% of Peruvians think the country is already in economic crisis. So the government’s main near-term task is to avoid hitting the brakes too hard. Unfor...
Noise in the Economic Activity Indicators
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 16 Sep 2013
The extreme volatility of the data lately has been hampering the task of gauging the economic activity trend. In previous reports we have already indicated this has been happening with the figures on industrial production, where the monthly variations in recent months have been alternating betwee...
All Eyes on the Fed and the SARB
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 16 Sep 2013
This week the Federal Open Market Committee of the US Federal Reserve Bank meets to discuss the conduct of monetary policy. Expectations are that an announcement will be made concerning the timing and extent of the reduction of the stimulus program, also known as “quantitative easing”.Against thi...