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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Food Is Not the Only Problem
TURKEY · Report · 03 Sep 2014

August CPI inflation came in at 0.1%, slightly above expectations, raising the 12-month rate to 9.5% from 9.3% in July (Table 1; Graph 1). A further increase in food inflation to 14.4% from 12.6% earlier, given last year’s low base, is partly to blame, but it is notable that neither the core infl...

Costa Rica: President’s Fiscal Approach a Risky Bet
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 02 Sep 2014

Executive Summary The outlook for Costa Rica for 2014-2015 is clouded by the fiscal situation.The Central Bank projects a government deficit of 6% of GDP in 2014, and 6.6% in 2015.Clearly those are worrisome numbers. Nor is a solution in sight. Plans to increase revenues are based on improving ta...

Political Insights: Week of September 2
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Sep 2014

Congress begins a concentrated effort this week, the last before the elections.Few important matters will be voted upon, but it will be a fast-paced week due to the electoral races, federal and state.Another presidential debate was scheduled for Monday (9/1).Three new presidential polls will be r...

GDP in the Second Quarter: Worse than Expected
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 01 Sep 2014

Second-quarter GDP fell by 0.6%. This decline not only exceeded the median of expectations, there also were downward revisions of the seasonally adjusted data for the first quarter of 2014 and third of 2013. Instead of expansion of 0.2% in the first quarter this year, the revised figures show a f...

Donetsk encirclement unlocked. Russian regular squads enter the city.
UKRAINE · In Brief · 01 Sep 2014

Situation at the eastern front has aggravated over the last few days. Russian army made a decisive move from south to cut off Ukrainian forces from supplies what made Ukrainian regular army to retreat. Unfortunately, several volunteer battalions have been encircled and totally destroyed – hundred...

​Davutoglu Cabinet and the government program: Few new names, fewer new policies
TURKEY · In Brief · 31 Aug 2014

PM-designate Prof Davutoglu broke a speed record by using only 16 hours to form the 62nd government of Turkey. Adding to speed records, the program of the new government will be read today and it will be smoothly confirmed within 3 days. There are only four new names in the 62nd government, which...

Slower Growth and Provincial Growth Disparities
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 31 Aug 2014

Executive Summary Over the past few decades as China’s economy has grown rapidly, there have been significant disparities in the growth rates among different Chinese provinces. I expect that disparities will remain even as the economy continues to slow.While the very different growth rates among ...

Expenditures fall anew
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 29 Aug 2014

After a 50% rebound in June, government non-interest expenditures dropped anew by 17% in July. This calls to mind the President’s warning of the “chilling effect” of the Supreme Court decision, handed down on July 1, declaring the administration’s Disbursement Acceleration Program illegal. These ...

Russian intervention officially recognized
UKRAINE · In Brief · 28 Aug 2014

President Petro Poroshenko today spoke to Ukrainians and officially recognized that Russian troops invaded Ukraine. In fact, it was nothing new for everyone; however, after many western observers finally recognizing the fact of Russian invasion Poroshenko also had to do this. Situation aggravated...

Had to Cut Something, I Guess…
TURKEY · Report · 28 Aug 2014

Needless to say, yesterday’s CBT/MPC decision that lowered the O/N lending rate -- from 12% to 11.25% or to 10.75% for primary dealers -- while leaving the reference one-week repo rate intact (see graph), came as a surprise. Our political analyst-cum-cosmic strategist already shared his thoughts ...

Brazil Presidential Election
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Aug 2014

Marina expands lead over Aécio and would defeat Dilma in the 2nd round The most recent Ibope poll confirms that we are now faced with a new electoral reality.Former Senator Marina Silva (PSB) has surpassed Aécio Neves (PSDB) and is only 5 percentage points behind the president and reelection cand...

Better 2Q14 Growth But....
PHILIPPINES · Report · 28 Aug 2014

In contrast to last quarter’s disappointing performance, 2Q14 GDP growth of 6.4% turned out much better than the 6% consensus forecast and lifted this year’s average growth so far to 6%.The economy’s performance puts it ahead of most ASEAN economies. One can quickly tell from the newly released n...

Brazil Presidential Election
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Aug 2014

Polls reinforce Marina’s situation The Ibope and CNT/MDA polls released this week could not have been better for Marina Silva (PSB) and they reinforce her position as a challenger to Dilma Rousseff, who has been the favorite thus far. There are approximately 40 days left before the first round an...

CBT MPC: The cat and mouse game
TURKEY · In Brief · 27 Aug 2014

CBT surprised all commentators once again, as its MPC decided to keep the reference weekly repo rate steady, but trimmed the ceiling of the notorious “corridor” (O/N lending rate) by 75 basis points. We had anticipated a 25-50 basis point cut prior to the meeting, yet do take the decision as vind...

Recession Averted But Underlying Weakness Prevails
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 27 Aug 2014

Following a 0.6% quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted and annualized (q/q saa) contraction in the first quarter of 2014, the South African economy expanded by the same magnitude in Q2 2014 (see Graph 1). Graph 1 Inflation-adjusted GDP growth rate, South Africa, 2008 Q1 – 2014 Q2 Note: Seasonall...

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