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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

An Urgent Search for Funds
ECUADOR · Forecast · 18 Aug 2014

Executive SummaryThe gauge in the Treasury’s coffers veered toward empty, with just $348 million in cash on average between January and May, down from $1.25 billion during the same period last year. Unsurprisingly, the government is aggressively campaigning to control liquidity. The new Monetary ...

Crunch time in Turkish politics
TURKEY · In Brief · 17 Aug 2014

While Erdogan easily rode to the presidency on the back of a 51.8% majority, the task of transition and succession in the party is turning out to be more arduous. In this Brief, I’m updating my predictions for the new AKP chairman and key cabinet posts, while the Cosmic Dude barges in with his il...

The Road to the 2015 Elections
MEXICO · Report · 15 Aug 2014

Executive Summary All political parties will be focusing their attention between now and next summer on the 2015 federal elections, in which all 500 seats in the Chamber of Deputies will be up for election, as well as state and municipal offices in 15 states. The electoral calendar starts when el...

How to Raise the Minimum Wage
MEXICO · Report · 15 Aug 2014

Executive Summary The country’s minimum wage has emerged as a major topic in the national political debate in recent days. Mexico is the only Latin American country in which the minimum wage is below the extreme poverty line, according to the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbea...

CPI, GDP data: Too much of rain and a stronger than expected economy
HUNGARY · In Brief · 14 Aug 2014

Facts: 1. July CPI-inflation was 0.2% mom / 0.1% yoy, the latter up from -0.3% in June; 2. Q2 GDP (preliminary, sda) was up 0.8% qoq / 3.7% yoy, after 1.1% qoq / 3.2% yoy. Both CPI and GDP were somewhat stronger than expected. Significance: 1. Some say that the short period of negative inflation ...

A second term for the President?
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 14 Aug 2014

The Philippine Constitution prohibits it, which is why when the presumptive presidential candidate of the ruling Liberal Party, Interior Secretary Mar Roxas, sent out the trial balloon last week, analysts quickly shot it down as the desperate idea of one receiving low ratings in presidential pref...

Ritornello
VENEZUELA · Report · 13 Aug 2014

Ritornello: A recurrent musical section that alternates with different episodes of contrasting material. The repetition can be exact or varied to a greater or lesser extent. Encyclopedia Britannica. Here we are, writing about the exchange rate again. A window of opportunity for reform of the fore...

Brazil Presidential Election
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Aug 2014

The Impact of the Tragedy on the PSB Ticket Given that Marina Silva is Eduardo Campos’ natural successor, the main consequences of the tragedy that took the life of the PSB presidential candidate are the increased probability of the election going to a second round and the threat to Aécio Neves’ ...

Banks protest the central bank's move to rewrite the past
HUNGARY · In Brief · 11 Aug 2014

Hungary's banking association says that the MNB's recently issued guideline on how banks should calculate the amount of refunds to household credit clients, on account of illegally charging a currency conversion spread under FX loan contracts where no actual currency conversion was involved, is i...

Credit: The Supply and Demand Signs
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 11 Aug 2014

Credit plays an important role in economic growth. Most companies that have projects to raise productive capacity, contributing to growth, have to find some type of financing. Individuals also benefit from credit by the ability to consume in advance of earning, especially regarding durables. Vari...

Missing the Recovery Trajectory
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 11 Aug 2014

Executive Summary The South African economic performance in 2014 has been marred by damaging strikes which gave enough reasons for negative credit ratings actions. Labour unions have grown radical and militant. Splintering among unions along political fault lines suggests that South Africa has en...

Political Insights: Week of August 11
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Aug 2014

This will be a busy week because of the elections.The presidential candidates will be interviewed by TV Globo’s Jornal Nacional, the highest rated news show in the country.A Sensus poll on the presidential race may be released on Friday.There will also be new polls on the presidential race and gu...

​Erdogan Years, Day One: Weak mandate for strong presidency
TURKEY · In Brief · 10 Aug 2014

Good morning and Welcome to “Erdogan Years” in Turkey. I’m posting my initial thoughts at 6:00 am Turkey time so that our Asian and West European readers have some analysis to work with. The agenda of the coming days will be set by today’s central committee meetings, after which I will pen a more...

Two Opposite Pictures: Asset Prices and the Real Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 08 Aug 2014

Executive Summary In the midst of economic performance that can be characterized as stagflation, asset prices have recently been appreciating. The Ibovespa has risen more than the stock market indexes of other emerging markets, and has far outpaced the S&P-500 in recent weeks. Simultaneously, ...

Brazil Presidential Election
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Aug 2014

Ibope Reveals Stability The second Ibope poll on the presidential race since the candidacies were made official presents a scenario of stability.President Dilma Rousseff (PT) preserved her intended votes from the previous poll, while senator Aécio Neves (PSDB-MG) and former governor Eduardo Campo...

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