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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Weak Retail Sales Performance
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 14 Aug 2013

Real retail sales grew only 0.5% in June, showing continuing deceleration in the preceding 12 months, with the rate falling from 4.4% in May to 1.7% through the end of June. In the augmented sense (with inclusion of cars and construction materials), the expansion during the month was 1%, with gro...

Threats to Corporate Earnings
TURKEY · Report · 12 Aug 2013

There is a thickening cloud of uncertainly hovering over the earnings forecasts of major BIST-listed companies. Government’s relentless efforts to find the co-conspirators of the Gezi Parki in the business community and the swelling public sentiment against banks’ habit of excessive transaction f...

Political Insights: Week of August 12
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Aug 2013

President Dilma Rousseff continues her strategy of strengthening her relationship with the allied base.Votes on the compulsory budget and the bill that destines resources from the pre-salt for education and healthcare are scheduled in the House.In the Federal Supreme Court, the mensalão trial res...

Interventions in the Exchange Rate to Help Secure Inflation
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 12 Aug 2013

The trend for the real to depreciate is continuing. At the start of the year, the exchange rate was around R$2.00/US$ while in recent weeks it only has not broken through the R$2.30/US$ barrier (Graph 1) because of the Central Bank’s interventions, with the sale of exchange rate swaps. Even with ...

Problems with the 2012 census confirmed
CHILE · In Brief · 08 Aug 2013

  The National Statistics Institute (INE) received yesterday the report with the evaluation of the 2012 census by a committee of independent experts. This committee was created after a journalistic investigation center revealed errors and inconsistencies in the 2012 census (now being investigated...

In a Good Place
COLOMBIA · Report · 08 Aug 2013

Executive SummaryDespite emergent risks from recent external events, the Philippines is expected to avoid the downshifting in emerging markets and grow above historical trend this year and next. This is mainly because the country has been relying on local growth drivers and its good macro positio...

Perfect Alignment of the Stars Lowers Inflation
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 07 Aug 2013

As expected, the IPCA showed significant deceleration in July, at only 0.03%, which is even lower than the IPCA-15 for the month, which had reached 0.07%. With this, the IPCA over the 12 previous months amounted to 6.27% (Graph 1), slightly below the upper bound of the target interval. The moveme...

Continuing Weakness at 2Q
MEXICO · Report · 07 Aug 2013

Economic Panorama In the Economic Panorama section of our previous Monthly Trends issue, we argued that, based on the very preliminary data available at that time, it appeared that the economic slowing apparent in the first quarter had been intensifying over the course of the second quarter of th...

Michoacán: Spiraling Crisis
MEXICO · Report · 07 Aug 2013

Political Outlook A series of developments over the past week in the central western state of Michoacán confirmed that security conditions there continue to deteriorate in dramatic fashion. The list of incidents was led off on Sunday, July 28 with the gangland murder of Vice Admiral Carlos Miguel...

Sobyanin a Shoo-In
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 06 Aug 2013

Several forces among the ruling elite are challenging one another, though all are trying to help Sergei Sobyanin be reelected as mayor to Moscow to this September. This situation has given challenger Alexey Navalny a popularity boost. Though his chances as still mostly theoretical, his treatment ...

Inflation: No help from fiscal policy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 05 Aug 2013

For the past few weeks the official pronouncements have been celebrating the transitory fall of inflation caused by the reduction of food prices as a whole. But the end of this period is approaching, and from now on the dominant factor will be the effect of the weaker exchange rate on inflation. ...

And the pass-through starts..
TURKEY · Report · 05 Aug 2013

Consumer prices rose by 0.3% in July, taking the 12-month rate to just below 9% (8.9%), from 8.3% in June. The increase is in line with expectations, and near the 9% level Governor Basci had hinted during the presentation of the Inflation Report last week. Producer prices also continued to rise t...

Difficult Days Ahead
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 05 Aug 2013

Executive Summary The fall of food prices will still reduce inflation for a few weeks, but the pass-through of the weaker exchange rate to consumer prices will soon raise current inflation. Besides this, the government has exhausted its arsenal of actions on the prices of some specific products t...

Political Insights: Week of August 5
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Aug 2013

A week of expectations.The government is trying to mend dialogue with its base.A series of meetings between allies and the government are scheduled for this week.In Congress, party leaders in the House and Senate discuss the voting agenda for the next few weeks.A meeting of the national leadershi...

Times They Are a-Changin’
TURKEY · Report · 02 Aug 2013

Executive SummaryThe Gezi Park incident may represent the turning point for the AKP administration. It is facing the severest trials of its 11-year reign, but so far, it has failed to effectively deal with them. After the loss of Egypt, Ankara is also fumbling the ball in Syria. An Arab-Kurdish w...

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