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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Scenarios in Crisis of Justice/Security
MEXICO · Report · 11 Dec 2014

Executive SummaryAmid the dual-faceted political crisis Mexico is experiencing – an institutional crisis and a crisis of leadership and legitimacy – and under mounting pressure to produce quick results, last week the administration of President Enrique Peña Nieto cobbled together a series of disp...

A Word Worth $20 Billion
VENEZUELA · Report · 11 Dec 2014

The recent reform of the BCV Law allows the Board of the Bank to include about $20 billion in assets booked as Various Foreign Exchange Assets since July 2014. The Bank has not disclosed details on these assets. Our sources report that this account contains two structured notes written by foreign...

Revising Financial Prices Outlook
PHILIPPINES · Report · 11 Dec 2014

In our most recent outlook report (“Shifting Sands,” November 14, 2014), our baseline scenario took into consideration a 50bp BSP policy rate hike in 2H15 in step with a US Fed rate hike. The sands have since shifted, and following our conversation with the BSP Governor yesterday, we are now look...

Mixed Labor Market Outlook for Year
MEXICO · Report · 11 Dec 2014

Executive Summary In this week’s Economic Panorama we analyze what the labor market data to date can tell us about broader economic trends, and how economic activity is likely to close the current year. We also delve into some of the reasons why robust growth in payroll employment has failed to t...

Growth Disappoints, Basci Uplifts
TURKEY · Report · 10 Dec 2014

Turkish GDP came in lower than expected in the third quarter of the year -- 1.7% actual vs. 2.9% forecast, y/y – the main culprits being a large contraction in agriculture from the production side and inventory drawdown from the expenditure side. In the year through Q3, GDP thus expanded by 2.8%,...

Post RUFO Debt Negotiation
ARGENTINA · Report · 10 Dec 2014

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY As December 31 gets closer, and the RUFO clause expires 10 years from the first debt swap, the market focuses again on the government’s signals regarding its willingness to negotiate with holdouts. In this report, we will present our perspective on what to expect on this issue d...

Taking Stock of China’s Transition
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 10 Dec 2014

Special points to highlight in this issue:While policymakers almost certainly understand that the interest rate cuts announced by the PBoC two weeks ago will slow the pace of rebalancing, the asymmetry of the change in rates was designed to minimize the adverse impact on rebalancing, and indicate...

Central Bank Law Reform
VENEZUELA · Report · 09 Dec 2014

The BCV Law reform decreed by President Maduro under the aegis of the Enabling Law (Official Gazette No. 6156 Extraordinary, 19 November 2014) is a step back in terms of foreign reserve management and transparency.Article 31 hints that the flow of macroeconomic and financial data published by the...

COPOM Decision: Giving with one Hand and Taking Back with the other
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 08 Dec 2014

In its first meeting since the presidential election, the Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM) started a tightening cycle. It justified the decision (which was not unanimous) by stating that it was due to the inflationary effects coming from the “intensification of the adjustments or relative prices...

Internal Contradictions
CHILE · Report · 08 Dec 2014

Executive SummaryTwo major international summits that took place in November, in China and Australia, were all about Ukraine and Russia and met with no apparent success. Despite intense consultations, President Putin was unable to conduct a fruitful dialogue with his counterparts from Europe, and...

The Current Account Deficit Tapers Marginally
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 08 Dec 2014

According to official figures released today by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB), the deficit on the current account narrowed by R5 billion to register R230 billion in the third quarter of 2014 – see Table 1. Table 1 Balance of payments on current account, South Africa, 2013 Q3 – 2014 Q3Note...

Stimulating
PERU · Report · 08 Dec 2014

Executive SummaryThe government finally seems resolved to step up measures to address growth slowdown. After an array of small stimulus packages, Minister of Finance Alonso Segura is taking more aggressive steps, to prod growth toward the government’s 2015 5.5% of GDP target. Surprise! These prop...

An Unexpected Turn in the Polls
HUNGARY · Report · 08 Dec 2014

Executive SummaryOur main story this month is, somewhat unexpectedly, about politics. Less than two months after its third impressive election victory this year, the governing Fidesz-KDNP alliance’s popularity has fallen markedly, as reflected by latest polls, a number of street demonstrations an...

Weekly Tracker: December 7-13
TURKEY · Report · 07 Dec 2014

Executive SummaryTurkey’s Supreme Court is expected to rule on a challenge to the country’s electoral system within 30 days that may cause AKP to do some fine-tuning with the qualification hurdle—for the lack of a better phrase. At this point, there is little need to worry about the party losing ...

Venezuela could have sold Dominican Rep's debt under Petrocaribe to Goldman Sachs at 41% of its value
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 06 Dec 2014 · 3 responses

According to press reports, Venezuelan goverment and its PDVSA would have sold to Goldman Sachs the debt of the Dominican Republic contracted under the terms of Petrocaribe, an agreement through which Venezuela provides long term low interest credit for a portion of oil imported from Venezuela. G...

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