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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Brazil Presidential Election
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Sep 2014

CNT/MDA poll shows race is still open Dilma Rouseff’s (PT) lead over Marina Silva (PSB) increased slightly in the 1st round, while Marina’s lead decreased in the 2nd round.These are the main results of the CNT/MDA poll conducted on September 5-7, compared to the poll conducted on August 21-25. TA...

Expect Tough Talks in Congress
MEXICO · Report · 09 Sep 2014

Executive Summary When President Enrique Peña handed Congress his second State of the Nation Report, the first session of the final year of the LXII Legislature formally got underway.In contrast to the fall session of 2013, there will be no discussion of major constitutional reforms, nor any mech...

The fiscal correction that India requires is feasible: Aadhaar and subsidy reform holds the key
INDIA · Report · 09 Sep 2014

The size of the task Last year (i.e. 2013-14 RE), the fiscal deficit was 4.6% of GDP. The fiscal deficit budgeted for 2014-15 is 4.1% of GDP. The budget speech has said that the target for 2015-16 is 3.6% and then the target for 2016-17 is 3% of GDP. For India to achieve macroeconomic stability, ...

‟Gendarming” Cyclical Businesses
MEXICO · Report · 09 Sep 2014

Executive Summary Mexico’s Gendarmerie began operations in recent days as a new division of the Federal Police, an issue we analyzed in the politics section of our most recent monthly report, “Firming Up – But For How Long?” published September 3. The new corps’ mission will be to “protect certai...

The Current Account Balance Deteriorates Substantially In 2014 Q2
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 09 Sep 2014

Official figures released today by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) show that the magnitude of the current account deficit worsened in 2014 Q2, recording a shortfall of R222 billion compared to R161 billion in the preceding quarter – see Table 1. Graph 1 Balance of payments on current accoun...

September Inflation Report
CHILE · Report · 08 Sep 2014

On September 4, the Central Bank released its quarterly Inflation Report. The expected growth rate for 2014 was revised lower, roughly by the amount markets expected. The forecast for 2015 was also in line with expectations. Inflation rates for both December 2014 and 2015 were revised higher and ...

Political Insights: Week of September 8
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Sep 2014

The repercussions of the revelations made by former Petrobras director Paulo Roberto Costa regarding congressmen, governors and ministers of state who received percentages of company contracts will dominate the political debates.Four presidential polls are expected: Datafolha, MDA, Vox Populi and...

What is the Trend of the IPCA?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 08 Sep 2014

In August inflation measured by the IPCA once again was slightly above the target interval, at 6.51%. In previous months, however, the monthly variations of the IPCA had been lower than at the start of the year. This was partly due to favorable seasonal factors and partly due to the decline in fo...

Davutoglu’s Challenges
TURKEY · Report · 07 Sep 2014

Executive SummaryA host of severe policy challenges lie in-wait for Premier Davutoglu. Yet, all of the potential threats to his reign have long gestation periods, meaning that political risk premiums are very likely to range low in the near term. Ankara is afraid of sustaining collateral damage f...

Potentially Devastating Revelations
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Sep 2014

Preliminary information resulting from the plea bargain deal, in exchange for cooperation, offered to Paulo Roberto Costa, former Petrobras Director of Supply, is starting to appear and reveal devastating potential. According to Costa, five parties, one governor and 32 parliamentarians were part ...

Wartime Living
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 05 Sep 2014

Russia is increasingly involved in the Ukrainian crisis, both in the international arena and on the ground. Moscow is trying to persuade Kyiv that there is no military solution to the current crisis, which means negotiations with the insurgents in which Russia can be an invaluable mediator but no...

Rift Threatens to Block Agenda
PERU · Report · 05 Sep 2014

Executive SummaryThe souring relationship between Congress and the executive branch is likely to persist. There are already motions to impeach the minister of Energy and Mines (an effort we think will succeed). This will heighten political polarization, which could lead to the ousting of other mi...

‘Cease-fire’ play
UKRAINE · In Brief · 05 Sep 2014

Ukrainian authorities signed cease-fire agreement with separatists. The main question for how long that will last. In our opinion it has poor chances even to start. From the info we see one of the main conditions was withdrawal of Russian military from eastern Ukraine. That could hardly happen be...

Geopolitical Risk Has Started To Materialize
HUNGARY · Report · 04 Sep 2014

Executive Summary As the war in eastern Ukraine was clearly escalating, the forint came under more pressure in recent weeks, its weakening fostered by low domestic interest rates and the central bank’s endeavor to get rid of its non-resident depositors. However, HUF weakness remains measured, as ...

Brazil Presidential Election
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Sep 2014

Marina stops growing in Datafolha, and Dilma recovers three points in Ibope The Ibope and Datafolha polls released yesterday presented a very similar scenario.Dilma Rousseff (PT) and Marina Silva (PSB) are technically tied in the 1st round, while Aécio Neves (PSDB) is further and further away fro...

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