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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Good News on Debt, Despite Bad Activity Data
ARGENTINA · Report · 03 Jun 2014

Last Thursday, the Argentine government announced that after long and complex negotiations it finally reached a first firm agreement with the Paris Club regarding its outstanding debt, which had been in default since 2002. The normalization of its default position with the Paris Club is a positiv...

Brazil Presidential Election
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Jun 2014

Carta Capital magazine interviews Lula Former President Lula gave a long interview to Carta Capital magazine. Some points from the interview are worth highlighting. When asked about the relationship between the World Cup and the elections, the former president said he did not believe the event wo...

“It never rains but it pours”
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 02 Jun 2014

Recent prints of South African economic indicators paint a picture of an ailing domestic economy badly in need of emergency procedures before it is too late. On the whole, downbeat economic activity (particularly in mining and manufacturing) coupled with elevated inflationary pressures have so fa...

Frustration Over GDP Growth
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 02 Jun 2014

Nobody had the illusion that GDP growth in the first quarter would bring cheer to the government, but the result was even more frustrating than many imagined: growth was only 0.2% (0.7% annualized), worse than the 0.4% in the last quarter of 2013 (Graph 1). Of even more concern than the extremely...

Political Insights: Week of June 2
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Jun 2014

The House agenda contains several controversial topics, including the suspension of the act by the National Agency of Electric Energy (Aneel) denying compensation of R$ 7 billion to residential electricity consumers, the end of social security contributions from inactive civil servants, and the r...

Turkey’s Stable Disequilibrium
TURKEY · Report · 01 Jun 2014

Executive SummaryJune will witness the selection of presidential candidates by major parties. We bet on Erdogan for AKP, but the opposition is yet to find viable champions. We still assign 65% chances to an Erdogan victory, citing three major reasons: No cross-party votes in either round, the pos...

Jokowi Likely to Take It
INDONESIA · Report · 29 May 2014

Executive Summary On the heels of the parliamentary elections, Indonesian politics are heating up. The field has been winnowed to two presidential candidates (from an initial four), and two vice presidential candidates, who will stand for the July 9 vote. This means the election will be decide...

Finally an agreement with the Paris Club
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 29 May 2014

The government announced today that it finally reached, after long and complex negotiations, a first firm agreement with the Paris Club regarding its outstanding debt, which Argentina last defaulted in 2002. The current amount under negotiation stands today, based on April the 30th, at USD 9.7bn....

V, J, or L?
PHILIPPINES · Report · 29 May 2014

With the consensus forecast pegged at 6.4%, most analysts found the 5.7% 1Q14 GDP growth announced today surprising.But not us. We have maintained a below-consensus full-year forecast of 6.1% since early this year, expecting the first two quarters to be on the weaker side given the boost from ele...

Inaction Speaks Louder than Words
VENEZUELA · Report · 28 May 2014

Executive Summary The two dialogue processes that began in April are stuck. The government has made clear that it doesn’t intend to make a single concession to the opposition and that its promises to the business sector are mere words. The government has no incentive to make meaningful political ...

Fending Off the Aggressor
UKRAINE · Report · 27 May 2014

Executive Summary Criminal violence is exploding throughout Eastern Ukraine, while the economy sinks further into the red. Yet positive developments under the surface lead us to take an optimistic outlook. Ukrainian society is sick, and the road to recovery will be hard. But at least the patient ...

Political Insights: Week of May 27
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 May 2014

Several important events are expected this week.The STF rules on the case that questions savings account losses during economic plans of the late 80s and early 90s.The Central Bank makes its interest rate decision.Minister of Finance Guido Mantega meets with industry representatives to discuss pa...

2014 Economic Performance Off To A Bad Start
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 27 May 2014

According to official figures released by Statistics South Africa, the inflation-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) shrank by 0.6% on a quarter-on-quarter (q/q), seasonally adjusted annualized (saa) basis in the first quarter of 2014 (see Graph 1). Anemic mining and manufacturing activity was ...

PAN Seeks Road to Recovery
MEXICO · Report · 27 May 2014

Executive Summary Gravely worn down under the weight of its first 12 years in power, the National Action Party saw its extended process of internal decomposition greatly aggravated by its defeat in the 2012 elections. The setback also intensified the internal division that opened up in 2010 betwe...

Housing at a Crossroads
MEXICO · Report · 27 May 2014

Executive Summary Data on first quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was the most significant item in a week chock full of major economic indicators. According to the report, the Mexican economy grew 1.8% above year earlier levels, a figure closely in line with our own estimate of 1.7%. The facto...

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