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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Brazil Presidential Election
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Sep 2014

Marina stops growing in Datafolha, and Dilma recovers three points in Ibope The Ibope and Datafolha polls released yesterday presented a very similar scenario.Dilma Rousseff (PT) and Marina Silva (PSB) are technically tied in the 1st round, while Aécio Neves (PSDB) is further and further away fro...

Firming Up – But For How Long?
MEXICO · Report · 03 Sep 2014

Executive Summary Economic news was largely unchanged this month. Areas of weakness, such as internal consumption, tended to fall less, while positive ones, such as industrial activity, recovered faster. The labor market also firmed up, and included the strongest gain in manufacturing employment ...

Maduro’s Announcements
VENEZUELA · Report · 03 Sep 2014

President Maduro’s announcements focus on bureaucratic reorganization, confirming the power of the radical wing of chavismo. The new organization replicates the Cuban hierarchical structure with strong military presence. Both the rhetoric and appointments ratify the political-social model of cont...

Food Is Not the Only Problem
TURKEY · Report · 03 Sep 2014

August CPI inflation came in at 0.1%, slightly above expectations, raising the 12-month rate to 9.5% from 9.3% in July (Table 1; Graph 1). A further increase in food inflation to 14.4% from 12.6% earlier, given last year’s low base, is partly to blame, but it is notable that neither the core infl...

Costa Rica: President’s Fiscal Approach a Risky Bet
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 02 Sep 2014

Executive Summary The outlook for Costa Rica for 2014-2015 is clouded by the fiscal situation.The Central Bank projects a government deficit of 6% of GDP in 2014, and 6.6% in 2015.Clearly those are worrisome numbers. Nor is a solution in sight. Plans to increase revenues are based on improving ta...

Political Insights: Week of September 2
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Sep 2014

Congress begins a concentrated effort this week, the last before the elections.Few important matters will be voted upon, but it will be a fast-paced week due to the electoral races, federal and state.Another presidential debate was scheduled for Monday (9/1).Three new presidential polls will be r...

GDP in the Second Quarter: Worse than Expected
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 01 Sep 2014

Second-quarter GDP fell by 0.6%. This decline not only exceeded the median of expectations, there also were downward revisions of the seasonally adjusted data for the first quarter of 2014 and third of 2013. Instead of expansion of 0.2% in the first quarter this year, the revised figures show a f...

Donetsk encirclement unlocked. Russian regular squads enter the city.
UKRAINE · In Brief · 01 Sep 2014

Situation at the eastern front has aggravated over the last few days. Russian army made a decisive move from south to cut off Ukrainian forces from supplies what made Ukrainian regular army to retreat. Unfortunately, several volunteer battalions have been encircled and totally destroyed – hundred...

​Davutoglu Cabinet and the government program: Few new names, fewer new policies
TURKEY · In Brief · 31 Aug 2014

PM-designate Prof Davutoglu broke a speed record by using only 16 hours to form the 62nd government of Turkey. Adding to speed records, the program of the new government will be read today and it will be smoothly confirmed within 3 days. There are only four new names in the 62nd government, which...

Slower Growth and Provincial Growth Disparities
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 31 Aug 2014

Executive Summary Over the past few decades as China’s economy has grown rapidly, there have been significant disparities in the growth rates among different Chinese provinces. I expect that disparities will remain even as the economy continues to slow.While the very different growth rates among ...

Expenditures fall anew
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 29 Aug 2014

After a 50% rebound in June, government non-interest expenditures dropped anew by 17% in July. This calls to mind the President’s warning of the “chilling effect” of the Supreme Court decision, handed down on July 1, declaring the administration’s Disbursement Acceleration Program illegal. These ...

Russian intervention officially recognized
UKRAINE · In Brief · 28 Aug 2014

President Petro Poroshenko today spoke to Ukrainians and officially recognized that Russian troops invaded Ukraine. In fact, it was nothing new for everyone; however, after many western observers finally recognizing the fact of Russian invasion Poroshenko also had to do this. Situation aggravated...

Had to Cut Something, I Guess…
TURKEY · Report · 28 Aug 2014

Needless to say, yesterday’s CBT/MPC decision that lowered the O/N lending rate -- from 12% to 11.25% or to 10.75% for primary dealers -- while leaving the reference one-week repo rate intact (see graph), came as a surprise. Our political analyst-cum-cosmic strategist already shared his thoughts ...

Brazil Presidential Election
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Aug 2014

Marina expands lead over Aécio and would defeat Dilma in the 2nd round The most recent Ibope poll confirms that we are now faced with a new electoral reality.Former Senator Marina Silva (PSB) has surpassed Aécio Neves (PSDB) and is only 5 percentage points behind the president and reelection cand...

Better 2Q14 Growth But....
PHILIPPINES · Report · 28 Aug 2014

In contrast to last quarter’s disappointing performance, 2Q14 GDP growth of 6.4% turned out much better than the 6% consensus forecast and lifted this year’s average growth so far to 6%.The economy’s performance puts it ahead of most ASEAN economies. One can quickly tell from the newly released n...

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