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Week of June 25: Political Insights
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Jun 2013

President Dilma Rousseff Meets With Governors To Discuss The Distribution Of Oil Royalties For Education, Improvements In Public Services And An Analysis Of The Protests Throughout The Country.New Demonstrations Are Expected To Take Place This Week. The New Minister Of The Federal Supreme Court, ...

Not Exports, But Inflows
CHINA · Report · 25 Jun 2013

Defying expectations, export growth soared 18% in Q1, instead of the anticipated 10%. Yet a month later, those numbers had plunged, with exports rising just 1% in May. Many analysts now think the big uptick was in fact the result of a disguised money inflow, attracted by speculation on interes...

Alert: Currency Risk Ahead
UKRAINE · Forecast · 25 Jun 2013

Executive Summary Ukraine is facing a new challenge: QE3 tapering. The end of the cheap money era will change a lot for the economy.Over the past year, only the abundant international liquidity has propped up the hryvnia and, by extension, economic growth.The outflow of money from emerging market...

Alevi’s Death Infuriates Gezi Parki People
TURKEY · In Brief · 25 Jun 2013

Strong signs that AKP is preparing reform packages for Alevites and Kurds. Budget aid will be provided to Alevite temples (Cemevi) and pastors. For Kurds, Kurdish language education will be permitted in private schools, with a voucher type of system. Will the minorities settle for that little?  I...

Brazil and the Changes in the External Scenario
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 24 Jun 2013

Since the signal sent by Chairman Bernanke at the press conference following the FOMC meeting in May, that the Fed's program of purchasing US$ 85 billion in assets per month would probably be tapered back in the second half this year, the global markets have been trying to adjust to the new reali...

CBT Makes its Choice
TURKEY · In Brief · 24 Jun 2013

CBT signaled to the market that it intends to deal with the pressures on the exchange rate primarily by selling F/X than by raising funding rates. Of course, this could bite them in fanny if the GEM sell-off were to last for a “few more months”.  Treasury auctions not good...Average yields up acr...

Looking for Drivers
MEXICO · Report · 24 Jun 2013

Executive SummaryFinancial markets were roiled last week as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and other officials spoke more explicitly about tapering off their quantitative easing – which currently consists of USD 85 billion in bond purchases each month – sometime later this year, and comple...

Complications on the Reform Front
MEXICO · Report · 24 Jun 2013

Executive SummaryThe divisions within the National Action Party (PAN) grew more intense last week as a majority of its senate members rebelled against efforts by the national leadership to impose discipline. The skirmish suggested PAN Chairman Gustavo Madero may be failing in his effort to exert ...

The Weakening of the Real
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 24 Jun 2013

Executive SummaryThe real has been depreciating. Two forces behind this movement come from the world economy. First, the United States has entered a sustained phase of growth greater than that of other industrialized countries, while emerging countries are experiencing deceleration. This is tendi...

Costa Rica's Rate Slash
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 24 Jun 2013

Executive SummaryAfter discovering that a data error had accidentally inflated the Monthly Index of Economic Activity, Costa Rica's Central Bank quickly cut its policy rate by a full 100 basis points, to 4%. Everyone could already see the economy slowing: first in non free trade zone activities, ...

Weekly Tracker: June 23-29
TURKEY · Report · 23 Jun 2013

Executive SummaryWe know our readers have their hands full with bigger issues like China, Brazil and the QE exit, so to save on reading time, we summarized our baseline political scenarios in light of some FAQs:Gezi Parki and related demonstrations: 55% chance they will wind down over the summer,...

Constitutional Chamber will hear all Electoral Impugnation Cases
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 21 Jun 2013

The Constitutional Chamber of the Supreme Tribunal of Justice (TSJ), headed by Gladys Ramirez, president of TSJ, announced its decision to hear all the cases related to the impugnation of the 14 April 2013 presidential election, until now in the hands of the Electoral Chamber.Henrique Capriles we...

CNI/IBOPE: Research Conducted Before the Start of the Demonstrations Showed A Fall in President Rousseff’s Popularity
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Jun 2013

Executive SummaryThe latest research from CNI/IBOPE, conducted before the outbreak of demonstrations across the country that began on June 13, showed a decline in the positive evaluation of Dilma Rousseff's government, with approval falling from 63% to 55%. Furthermore, for the first time since D...

The Currency Account Deficit Tapers
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 19 Jun 2013

According to the quarterly bulletin of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB), the deficit on the current account narrowed in the first quarter of 2013, an indication of a resurgence in export activity. Consequently, the ratio of the current account balance to the gross domestic product was-5.8% i...

MPC: Most Predictable in a Long Time
TURKEY · Report · 18 Jun 2013

The Monetary Policy Committee left all rates as well as all other levers of monetary policy (reserve ratios, ROCs, etc.) untouched, exactly in line with the consensus (see graph). The statement was also the plainest we've read in a long time.As before, the Bank reiterated that domestic demand is ...

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