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Creeping Poverty
MEXICO · Report · 18 Jun 2013

Executive SummaryLast week, Mexico's federal government announced that it intends to issue one trillion pesos (roughly USD 78.8 billion) in loans through the country's development banks over the course of 2013. Officials report that this sum would mark a real 10% increase in such credit compared ...

The Political Prize of the Economy
MEXICO · Report · 18 Jun 2013

Executive SummaryThe poor showing of the Mexican economy during the first months of the year could have significant political repercussions as voters prepare to head to the polls in 14 states this July 7. The wave of optimism the PRI was riding as it took office last December – polls at the time ...

A Wave of Demonstrations Threatens the Government
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Jun 2013

A series of demonstrations that began in São Paulo last week, originally against the readjustment of bus fares, is growing in size as it spreads across the country. On Monday night, according to the Datafolha Institute, about 65,000 people attended the demonstration in Brasilia. In Rio de Janeiro...

CBT Unlikely to Change Rates
TURKEY · In Brief · 17 Jun 2013

Small scale clashes lasted throughout the night across Turkey. A sympathy strike by left-leaning unions and professional associations drew in crowds, but excitement was notably lacking. These are critical days, if the protests wind down under their own weight, fine. The markets are likely to forg...

Investments: Beware of Over-optimism
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 17 Jun 2013

The data for the first quarter of 2013 show that the deceleration of GDP growth came from slower growth of household consumption and increased net imports. The positive surprise was fixed capital investments. The monthly figures on production of capital goods and construction materials, and the q...

Weekly Tracker: Week of June 16-22
TURKEY · Report · 16 Jun 2013

Executive SummaryPrime Minister Erdogan's order for police to forcefully vacate the Gezi Parki prolonged the crisis, turning into an uprising by various segments of the society.The most likely summer scenario, unfortunately, seems to be a continuation of unrest.It is also not feasible to deliver ...

Markets Stirred; Economy Will Chug Along
PHILIPPINES · Report · 14 Jun 2013

Just two weeks after the government announced much-better-than-expected 7.8% GDP growth in 1Q2013, which bucked the regional growth slowdown, local stock prices grabbed headlines with the worst one-day dive since the Lehman crisis in October 2008.Many were stunned by the steep fall, especially fo...

Erdogan backs down on Gezi Parki
TURKEY · In Brief · 14 Jun 2013

Party spokesperson H. Celik announced that a.      As long the current injunction by court on reconstruction in Gezi Parki stands, the government will not raze the parkb.      Regardless of the final court verdict a plescibite will be heldIn return AKP wants protestors to vacate the Gezi Park. Ye...

Monetary authorities kept policy stance accommodative
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 13 Jun 2013

Monetary authorities kept policy stance accommodative amid outflow of capital from the region.  On balance, recent global financial developments positive for the Philippines providing breathing room for overbought financial markets (peso depreciated, interest rates up, stock prices down).  If sus...

Retail Sales: Modest Recovery
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 13 Jun 2013

The seasonally adjusted retail sales numbers for April show slightly stronger growth: in the restricted concept sales grew 0.5% and in the augmented concept (including cars and construction materials) they expanded 1.9% (Graph 1). Over the past 12 months through April, the rates are lower than in...

Dominican Rep: in spite of announcements, public spending remains sluggish
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 13 Jun 2013

New figures on public spending for April show that in spite of the announcements made by the government that it will accelerate spending in public infrastructure, during that month, total spending remained as sluggish as during the first quarter.  Most likely, that meant a month of slow growth, a...

May Political and Economic Overview
MEXICO · Report · 13 Jun 2013

Executive SummaryThe setback in headline inflation sentiment index can largely be explained by increasing erosion of consumer expectations. That signals that consumer spending will stay weak through Q2.Flagging consumer hopes for household finances, and the broader economy, will evolve over the n...

Strategy For Financial Reform Is Becoming Visible
INDIA · Report · 11 Jun 2013

Executive SummaryFor the last decade, financial reforms in India have floundered. The game plan that now seems to be clearly visible comprises of a long term strategy and a two-pronged short term strategy. The long-term strategy is to enact some version of the draft Indian Financial Code, a new l...

Zooming in on Manufacturing
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 11 Jun 2013

Executive SummaryA favorable performance of the South African manufacturing sector is indispensable for achieving robust and sustained domestic economic growth. This is evidenced by the fact that a poor performance of the domestic manufacturing sector largely contributed to a shocking Q1 2013 gro...

Economy Says, End Taksim Peacefully
TURKEY · Report · 11 Jun 2013

Two important data prints were released today: GDP grew by a better-than expected 3% in Q1, y/y, while April current account deficit was a wider than expected $8.2 billion.Both prints are problematic in our view, as they yield signs of a struggling economy on two fronts: a not so healthy growth d...

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