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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Central Bank: Overoptimistic Forecasts for the Exchange Rate and Inflation
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 01 Jul 2013

The quality of any forecast depends on the quality of the underlying assumptions. In the Inflation Report for June, one of the Central Bank's forecasts is that inflation in 2014 will decline to 5.4%. This result is based on the assumption that the exchange rate will remain relatively stable at R$...

Recession with Inflation
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 01 Jul 2013

Executive Summary Our outlook for 2013–2014 is gloomy. Owing to years of costly and unsustainable government policies intensified during the long lead-up to last year’s presidential vote and prolonged by regional elections, Chávez’s death, and the snap election to replace him, the economy shrinks...

Main Topics of the Energy Sector Reform
MEXICO · Report · 01 Jul 2013

Executive Summary The idea of seriously opening Mexico’s petroleum industry to private competition is a goal that has long eluded policy makers, and one about which there remains considerable public reticence. But with energy reform (along with a similarly long-denied objective of giving the gove...

Week of July 1: Political Insights
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Jul 2013

Executive Summary President Dilma Rousseff continues negotiations with both the opposition and her base for a plebiscite on political reform. In addition, there are important topics on the congressional agenda this week. The House may vote to end the additional 10% fine in case of unfair employee...

The PMI Remains above the Critical Mark
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 01 Jul 2013

The seasonally adjusted Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) nudged up to record 51.6 index points in June compared to 50.4 a month earlier (Graph 1 & Table 1). The modest rise in the headline outcome resulted mainly from monthly increases in the two heaviest weighted sub-components of the PMI – busi...

Chilean Primaries
CHILE · Report · 01 Jul 2013

Chile’s first presidential primaries are over. For the first time in Chilean political history, presidential candidates from the two main coalitions were elected in a legally framed primary. In the center-left coalition, “Nueva Mayoria” (New Majority), former Chilean President Michelle Bachelet (...

Weekly Tracker: June 30-July 6
TURKEY · Report · 30 Jun 2013

Executive SummaryWe change our political base-case scenario that Gezi Parki and related protests would taper off during the summer. It is now more likely that they will be joined by Alevites and Kurds sooner than we anticipated. The Peace Process is being sabotaged by PKK, as Kurdish actors press...

Construction to the Rescue
COLOMBIA · Report · 28 Jun 2013

Executive SummaryThough Q1 economic growth at 2.8% did not disappoint, now we must ask: how will growth unfold for the rest of 2013, and into 2014? Part of the answer lies in the only sector that overperformed in Q1: construction. Expanding 16.9% in Q1, construction has saved the day, and is posi...

Dilma Announces Pact to Create a Positive Agenda to End Protests
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Jun 2013

The wave of protests taking place in the country since June 13 changed the government's agenda. Yesterday, President Dilma Rousseff organized a meeting with representatives of the Movement Passe Livre (MPL or "Free Fare Movement") and with governors and mayors of capital cities.The initiative is ...

Wave of Protests Brings Political, Social and Economic Unrest
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Jun 2013

Executive SummaryThis paper examines different scenarios for the demonstrations currently taking place in Brazil. Demonstrations tend to lose strength over time without the participation of civil servants and private sector workers. The central government's response could prevent a further spread...

Beating Back Inflation
INDONESIA · Report · 27 Jun 2013

Executive Summary On June 21, the government finally announced the increase of domestic fuel prices in Indonesia, a decision that had been in the works for months. The decision is crucial for lowering the government budget deficit and achieving a better balance of payments. The rise of th...

Stagflation
VENEZUELA · Report · 27 Jun 2013

Executive SummaryMunicipal elections have been set for 8 December 2013. Both the government and the opposition are framing the election as a referendum on Nicolás Maduro and his government. Elections will continue influencing government policy.Pdvsa president and Energy and Oil minister Rafael Ra...

Ecuador Renounces to ATPA
ECUADOR · In Brief · 27 Jun 2013

Minister of Industries and one of Correa’s right hand announced this morning that “Ecuador gives up unilaterally and irrevocably to the trade protection under the ATPA treaty”. It is difficult to assess this statement either as provocative or irrelevant. On one side the agreement would have expir...

Assuming Absolute Power
ECUADOR · Report · 27 Jun 2013

Executive SummaryThe "steamroller" – as the new Congress is nicknamed – recently passed two key laws: the first granting the president absolute power over communication, the second appearing to ease mining concession terms for corporations. Now the president, through his delegate in the to-be-cre...

Richter Scale 6.5 Heads-Up
TURKEY · In Brief · 26 Jun 2013

Capital Markets Board launched a sweeping probe of all brokers to see whether manipulative trades have taken place during the Gezi Park crash.  I talked to several people in the financial community and this is true. CMP even asked for private e-mails and phone records as well as bank account nrs ...

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