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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

A Politics and Econ Update
TURKEY · Report · 12 Jul 2013

Executive Summary Recent actions by PM Erdogan and AKP give the impression that the party has parted ways with reality. A chief proponent of the ‘High Rates Lobby’ has been appointed Chief Advisor to PM, while the authorities have begun to investigate financial transactions to find corroborators ...

Retail Sales (May 2013)
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 11 Jul 2013

In May, retail sales in the restricted concept remained stable, but in the augmented sense (including cars and construction materials) there was a decline of 0.8%. In relation to May last year, the respective variations were 4.5% and 4.4% (Graph 1). Graph 1 Retail Sales – 12-month variation Among...

Midyear Brief
VENEZUELA · Report · 10 Jul 2013

Dialogue with the private sector is President Maduro’s most important public policy initiative so far, seeking to identify and resolve the most critical obstacles to local production. Hostility has given way to a rather relaxed exchange of views. The short list of urgent matters includes access t...

Political Weakness and Economic Mismanagement
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 10 Jul 2013

Executive Summary The perspectives for the Brazilian economy have taken a turn for the worse. The most optimistic projections for 2013 are for GDP growth below 2.5% (though still above 2%); inflation near (or slightly above) 6%; and the SELIC rate at 9.5% or 10%. The picture is further worsened b...

Construction and Public Policy
MEXICO · Report · 09 Jul 2013

Executive Summary Last week officials released readings of how consumers and producers perceive the performance of the economy and of how their respective finances or businesses are evolving. The Consumer Confidence Index for June recorded a 2.4% softening of sentiment compared to the same month ...

State Elections: Everyone Wins While Losing Something
MEXICO · Report · 09 Jul 2013

Executive Summary Last Sunday, 14 states went to the polls. They elected one new governor in Baja California, and renewed their municipal governments and local Congress. After a much disputed race, the PAN seems to have won the governorship of Baja California for the fifth time in a row. Although...

Week of July 9: Political Insights
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Jul 2013

Two major economic events will take place this week: the announcement of budget cuts which, according to Finance Minister Guido Mantega, will be below R$ 15 billion; and the Central Bank’s decision regarding the basic interest rate. In Congress, the plebiscite on political reform remains on the a...

Sicad 2.0 on the Horizon
VENEZUELA · Report · 09 Jul 2013

The new Sicad system will begin operating in a matter of days. Key issues, such as theallocation mechanism, amounts to be auctioned, criteria defining qualified buyers, and of course, the exchange rate, are still undefined and in the hands of the Ministry of Finance and the central bank. Hopefull...

Caution over Investment Projections
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 08 Jul 2013

The only good news in the disappointing GDP results for the first quarter was the 4.6% increase in gross fixed capital formation. The question at this point is whether investments will continue on this recovery path, leading the investment rate to rise above 20% of GDP in 2013. The industrial pro...

Weekly Tracker: July 7-13
TURKEY · Report · 07 Jul 2013

Executive Summary The Egyptian coup could complicate things further for AKP, as party leaders openly side with Moslem Brotherhood.The counter-revolution is also making AKP more paranoid about Gezi Park. Large crowds descended on Taksim Square on Saturday, who met with startling police brutality. ...

Gross reserves declined to $23.1 billion in June
UKRAINE · In Brief · 06 Jul 2013

Gross foreign reserves declined $1.4 billion (5.7% m/m) in June down to $23.1 billion or 2.55 months of future imports, according to the Central bank report on July 5th.It has been already for the second month in row gross reserves have been falling.  This tendency was the direct consequence of Q...

Muddling Along
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 05 Jul 2013

Executive Summary We forecast economic activity in South Africa to remain hesitant over the medium- term with inflation adjusted gross domestic product growth recording 2.0 per cent in 2013 and 2.4 per cent in 2014. Although we expect the issue of job creation to feature prominently in political ...

Feeling Like Dorothy Again
TURKEY · Forecast · 05 Jul 2013

Executive SummaryHeightened domestic political risks, combined with signals from the Fed that QE ‘tapering’ may soon begin, changed the macro environment quite significantly since our last Quarterly (of April 10, 2013). On the political front, we now anticipate the risk premiums increasing steadi...

Game of Courts
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 05 Jul 2013

The recent presidential announcement of the unification of Russia’s Supreme Court and the Supreme Court of Arbitration of Russia, which contradicts a previously approved strategy, may be an indication of Putin’s work on the Prime Minister’s retirement plan. Dmitry Medvedev was the architect of Ru...

Ankara’s regional policy in tatters
TURKEY · In Brief · 04 Jul 2013

AKP was quick to condemn the Egypt coup, and even seem to encourage the supporters of Moslem Brotherhood to resist. This may be understandable from a moral perspective, but is very likely to result in the loss of Egypt’s alliance to AKP. The coup is major blow to the Sunni Axis. According to stat...

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