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Weekly Tracker: February 15-21
TURKEY · Report · 15 Feb 2015

Executive Summary According to press reports, Ankara and Kurdish rights party HDP are on the verge of announcing a major deal in the ethnic peace talks. From what we read, the deal may still be vetoed by PKK, or scuppered by the passage of the Internal Security Reform Bill. The contents leaked to...

Crazy budget disregard IMF staff-level agreement
UKRAINE · In Brief · 15 Feb 2015

On Feb. 14 the Cabinet approved revised draft budget 2015. So far we know only few numbers but it looks like the suggested spending plan did not experience any austerity measures. In particular, the authorities outlined central budget revenues target at UAH 498 billion which is UAH 134.4 billion ...

Government Too Weak to Pass Reforms
PERU · Report · 13 Feb 2015

Executive Summary Congress repealed the new law that aimed to introduce a distinct labor regime for young people. It was proposed without any marketing strategy, and the public reacted with widespread disapproval; polls indicated that 70% of Peruvians were against it. This result also highlights ...

President Zuma’s 2015 State of Nation Address
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 13 Feb 2015

The run-up to President Zuma’s second State of Nation Address (SONA) since the start of his second term in office was nothing short of sensational – full of political anticipation and potential drama within the Parliament. The Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), the second largest opposition party, ...

Politics & The New Five-Year Economic and Fiscal Program
PANAMA · Report · 12 Feb 2015

Executive Summary On January 27, by unanimous decision, the nine judges of the CSJ agreed to look into the evidence regarding corruption acts attributed to Ricardo Martinelli and opened the process to investigate his presumed involvements in corruption practices of several million dollars in the ...

IMF staff-level agreement reached: time to deliver budget cuts
UKRAINE · In Brief · 12 Feb 2015

The IMF mission has reached a staff-level agreement with the Ukrainian government for a new economic reform program under an extended facility fund format. Within this program Ukraine is expected to receive $17.5 billion from the IMF and extra funds from other international donors. No doubt it is...

The Setting For The Budget Speech
INDIA · Report · 11 Feb 2015

Executive Summary Optimists believe that if Budget 2015 works out right, trend growth in India will accelerate from 6.5%. Pessimists believe that the gulf between the existing structures of government and the requirements of the economy is growing and is steadily becoming a drag on growth. Theref...

Banking Sector: A Big Move Back Towards Normality
HUNGARY · Report · 11 Feb 2015

Executive Summary Life in the domestic banking sector has been unusually eventful in recent weeks. In a surprise move, the government signed a memorandum of understanding with the EBRD on its future policy intentions regarding the banking sector. Committing to bank privatization, the reduction of...

Year of the Bellwether
PHILIPPINES · Forecast · 11 Feb 2015

Executive Summary Since the start of the year, financial markets have used sharply lower oil prices, expected to last for some time yet, as their bellwether, predicting continuing good fortune for the incoming Year of the Ram.Low oil prices plus the ECB’s large stimulus package and a modified Sup...

Economics: Public Finance in the Wake of Cuts
MEXICO · Report · 11 Feb 2015

Executive Summary During the last week of January the authorities released public finance data as of December 2014. Tax revenues remained strong and there was no major expansion of public spending, so the public deficit came in below what the Ministry of Finance had anticipated in the general eco...

More of the same
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 10 Feb 2015

In a rather disorganized press conference, Finance minister Rodolfo Marco Torres and Central Bank president Nelson Merentes announced the new forex system. They added little to what President Maduro said on January 21. As expected, the 6.30 bolivars per dollar rate applies to food and medicines. ...

Politics: Posing for the Elections
MEXICO · Report · 10 Feb 2015

Executive Summary The Mexican Congress officially convened February 1 for a three-month regular session scheduled to conclude April 30, just over one month before federal elections in which every member of the Chamber of Deputies is to be replaced. With corruption and potential conflicts of inter...

Managing Economic Crisis
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 10 Feb 2015

The Russian government is dealing with two opposing priorities: managing economic difficulties, while denying their existence. The government launched a plan to support budget-funded parts of society, while staving off full-throated economic crisis. With high interest rates creating challenges fo...

Week of February 10
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Feb 2015

Despite the approaching Carnaval holidays, this will be an intense week in Congress. In the House, the Compulsory Budget may be voted upon. House leaders will also nominate members for the Petrobras CPI. In the Senate, the opposition is still trying to gather support for a Joint CPI. The presiden...

Lower Growth for the Long Haul
CHINA · Forecast · 09 Feb 2015

Executive Summary China’s main indicators show that the economy has reached a “new normal” stage, of relatively low yet stable performance. Real GDP rose 7.4% in 2014, down 0.3 pp from 2013. That puts growth below 8% for three years in a row. Quarterly growth rates were fairly flat last year, ...

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