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The Politics of Growth Targeting
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 04 Aug 2014

Executive SummaryThe investigation into Zhou Yongkang, announced last week but expected for months, is the most important political event in China since the related Bo Xilai scandal in 2012. It may confirm that President Xi Jinping and his followers have managed to centralize power far more than ...

Growth Can Hit Official Targets
CHINA · Forecast · 03 Aug 2014

Executive Summary We can see the possibility of a growth rebound, after the government raised investment, and cut the reserve requirement ratio for banks, at the end of June. Though the real economy hasn’t yet seen any impact, both public spending and the money supply immediately rose. Econ...

Brief Political Update on Id Developments
TURKEY · Report · 01 Aug 2014

I intended to hold my fire until our Monthly Report is completed by around the middle of next week, but the sudden flare-up of panic in GEM compelled me to comment on the recent political developments. Our very own Cosmic Strategist asserts that when risk appetite is down, investors begin to scru...

A Scandal-Slowdown Blend
PERU · Report · 01 Aug 2014

Executive Summary Though just five months have elapsed since the fifth cabinet was sworn in, last week an embattled Prime Minister Rene Cornejo was forced to resign. Simultaneously, President Ollanta Humala and First Lady Nadine Heredia succeeded in getting their handpicked candidate, Ana Maria S...

Costa Rica: Central Bank announces the revision of its Macroeconomic Program 2014-2015
CENTRAL AMERICA · In Brief · 31 Jul 2014

As stated by law, the Central Bank of Costa Rica announced today the revision of its Macroeconomic Program for the rest of 2014 and 2015. The Bank kept its inflation target range at 4.0% ± 1.0 p.p. for 2014 and 2015. In general terms, the outlook calls for slightly lower growth but higher disequi...

Default it is, is it not?
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 31 Jul 2014

The fact that the Economic Minister, Axel Kiciloff, joined yesterday the Argentine negotiation team and that local banks declared that they are willing to make an offer to buy Holdout’s legal claims, suggested that the likelihood of a temporary agreement to reinstall the “stay order” until the en...

A Last-Ditch Attempt to Overturn the Elections
INDONESIA · Report · 31 Jul 2014

Executive Summary Joko “Jokowi” Widodo’s presidential win at first looked like a happy ending. The vote count was completed on July 22, and the General Election Commission pronounced him the winner. The president-elect then gave a victory speech from Sulawesi, from the deck of a traditional me...

Maduro Courts His Base
VENEZUELA · Report · 31 Jul 2014

Executive Summary Nicolás Maduro and his government are trying to control chavismo’s political levers to shape their own power structures and obtain support to carry out partial economic reforms. We don’t know whether he will succeed. The chavista base is unhappy. And the III PSUV Congress, conve...

Guatemala: Lackluster
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 31 Jul 2014

Executive SummaryQ1 news wasn’t especially happy, though preliminary data delivered no real surprises. GDP growth was estimated at 3.4% y/y, at the lower end of Bank of Guatemala’s 3.3%-3.9% growth forecast for full year 2014. The current account deficit closed at $296 million, well above the $14...

Default It Is, Is It Not?
ARGENTINA · Report · 31 Jul 2014

This Market Brief was originally issued on July 31, 2014 as a post on GSP Direct, the GlobalSource Partners interactive webtool providing clients an initial response to breaking news and developments. The fact that the Economic Minister, Axel Kiciloff, joined the Argentine negotiation team yester...

Parliament approves budget amendments, Yatsenyuk remains PM
UKRAINE · In Brief · 31 Jul 2014

Today parliament approved two important decisions. The first one was approval of budget amendments which are critical for further IMF cooperation. The second one – MPs declined Arseniy Yatsenyuk resignation. Against this backdrop, we can claim that recent political crisis was resolved. Important,...

Policy rates hiked
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 31 Jul 2014

After holding policy rates steady since October 2012, the BSP today raised its overnight borrowing and lending rates by 25 bp to 3.75% and 5.75%, respectively. It explained the rate hike as a "preemptive move" to safeguard 2015 inflation which it forecasts to reach 3.7%, near the upper end of its...

GDP falls 4.7% y/y in 2Q 2014
UKRAINE · In Brief · 31 Jul 2014

In 2Q 2014 Ukraine’s GDP declined 4.7% y/y State Statistics Office reported on July 30. Also the authorities estimated GDP sliding 5.9% y/y in June vs. 4.9% y/y in May. For the first half of the year GDP was estimated to fall 3.0% y/y, according to Minecon. By the end of the year the Cabinet anti...

Punishing Russia, without Triggering WWIII
UKRAINE · Report · 29 Jul 2014

Executive Summary Despite all Ukraine’s difficulties, the latest the collapse of its ruling coalition, it looks as though the country is winning the war with Russia in terms of international community support. It’s a challenging conflict, and the renewed internal political fight in Kyiv doesn’t b...

Bringing State Investment Back to Normal
CHINA · Report · 28 Jul 2014

Executive Summary In June the government increased investment, and lowered the reserve requirement ratio for banks. Instantly, fiscal spending and the money supply rose. Though the real economy has not been affected (when taking the lagged effect into account), a future rebound is certainly po...

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