Breaking Bad

TURKEY - Forecast 15 Jan 2014 by Murat Ucer and Atilla Yesilada
Executive Summary The collapse of the symbiotic partnership between Turkey’s two powerful Islamist groups means that political stability is most likely impaired at least until the local elections, with uncertain prospects thereafter. A significantly higher political risk premium is very bad news for Turkey, given the country’s high external financing requirement and the slide in its international image since the May protests. The global economy, somewhat paradoxically, is not helping either, with advanced countries having entered 2014 on a more confident note, and the tapering genie already...

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