Coming Soon: Greater Instability

ARGENTINA - Report 15 Jan 2014 by Esteban Fernandez Medrano and Domingo Cavallo

Executive SummaryArgentina is experiencing a typical inflation–devaluation spiral. The government’s fiscal deficit has climbed to 4% of GDP. Monetary issuance to close the gap explains 2013’s 32% expansion of the money base, though net monetary expansion was 22% for the year, due to the contractionary effect of FX interventions.The new economic team accelerated the rate of devaluation to an average of 6% monthly (or 100% annualized), in an effort to slow the decline of reserves, and to shrink the gap between the official and the parallel FX exchange rate. But that attempt failed. The FX gap...

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